DBacks Trade Touki Toussaint & Bronson Arroyo to the Braves

[Chris_Sanders]

Ender Inciarte is your true starter in LF. He isn't going anywhere

Nick Ahmed is your true starter at SS. His defense is tops in the NL.

Ahmed's 1.6 WAR is 4th on the team. Inciarte is #5 at a 1.4 WAR


We might make a move away from Owings but it seems unlikely. DBacks are first in the NL in runs scored. Offense isn't the problem.

 

[Phrazbit]

Its hard to believe we have as much young talent as we do considering the wealth of guys we have thrown away, most of which has yielded nothing in return.

Looking at their ability to evaluate major league talent via trades and free agency (this critique is mostly aimed at the previous regime) its hard to account for how the team is in the decent shape it is. I'm not sure if we have brilliant player development guys, great draft guys or if we've been aided by a lot of dumb luck.

 

[Phrazbit]

To those that think this was an astute way to get rid of 10-15 million in salary, ask what you think Touki, a cannon armed top 100 prospect who is still a teenager, would get if he were a free agent from the Dominican or Cuba?

I expect it would be a helluva lot more than 10 million dollars.

 

[82CardsGrad]

This is the stuff though that makes your head explode when you think of it. They already paid Touki's signing bonus and would have him cost controlled for years should he make it to the major league level.



So basically the best case scenario is to burn multiple prospects to be able to afford making a trade for a player now? That hasn't worked out so well recently.



Even IF they end up making a move, history says they will just do the same biting your nose off thing 2 to 3 years later.



My guess...nothing happens. Right around .500. Attendance is up. New TV money kicking in...



They will be content to "build their core"

Like I said, I don't like the trade. However, I can see that since it wasn't LaRussa and Stewart who drafted Touki, and since they claim he will end up as a 4 or a 5, i can see why they would be willing to make this trade IF they have another move(s) in mind...

 

[82CardsGrad]

Ender Inciarte is your true starter in LF. He isn't going anywhere



Nick Ahmed is your true starter at SS. His defense is tops in the NL.



Ahmed's 1.6 WAR is 4th on the team. Inciarte is #5 at a 1.4 WAR





We might make a move away from Owings but it seems unlikely. DBacks are first in the NL in runs scored. Offense isn't the problem.

Inciarte is solid... However, I'm not sold on his ability to play 150 games or more a season, and produce consistently enough at the plate. For a top of the order speed guy he strikes out a lot...
Ahmed is tremendous defensively. But again, represents an enormous hole at the plate. I guess it wouldn't be so glaring if we were getting more production out of 2b, however, to have you middle infield batting below .240 - that just not sustainable...
Yes, we score runs. Thank you Goldy Pollack and Tomas. If not for those three - especially Goldy who is putting up an historic season, the runs scored would look quite different..

 

[Matt L]

It will always be a bad trade, however, in 4 years, everyone is going to shrug. Just like they continually shrug about the Bauer trade or the Skaggs trade or even the Jarrod Parker trade.

 

[FArting]

La Russa says they are in win mode now
Extra money will be used for extra pieces
Year 5 or 6 Toussaint will be good

I trust La Russa.

 

[Phrazbit]

Win now trades are disasters about... 98% of the time. And I don't see how its a "win now" trade when it did nothing but save the franchise some money. There is no salary cap in baseball. If you REALLY want to "win now" it usually means "cost be damned". We dumped a top pick to shed salary. Nothing about that helps us now.

 

[DWKB]

Win now trades are disasters about... 98% of the time. And I don't see how its a "win now" trade when it did nothing but save the franchise some money. There is no salary cap in baseball. If you REALLY want to "win now" it usually means "cost be damned". We dumped a top pick to shed salary. Nothing about that helps us now.

Ownership forced the FO to clear salary before acquiring more. The "cost be damned" here was young talent, not $$

 

[SweetD]

I don't see how this is a win now team. Sure we are on win streak, but how many times does this team go cold and loose series to lesser teams.

I am OK with righting the ship, but please don't go out and pick up a huge contract we will have to dump later.

 

[82CardsGrad]

I could be wrong, but "win now" may not = this season. I think that LaRussa see's this team as 2-3 years away from being a consistent contender for post season play. We have a decent foundation to start with, with some promising young arms on the farm.
But there is no way he could think this team right now is a "win now" type team. No legit/established closer... Offensive gaps at SS, 2B and maybe even 3B if Lamb can't get back to his early season production. Hellickson has been solid as of late, but my hunch is that he's due to implode...
Peralta is not ready for prime time and while I really like the guy, I have my doubts about Ender as an everyday player...

 

[unseenaz]

very interesting comments by Dave Stewart..

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/...smond-toussaint-d-backs-samardzija-cotts.html

“The truth is we did not know what Touki’s value would be if we shopped him. There is a lot of speculation on that. People are assuming it would have been better, but we don’t know. There was an opportunity to make a deal that gave us more flexibility today as well as next year. We took that opportunity. It’s tough to say we could have gotten more. He was drafted at No. 16, given ($2.7) million. In my opinion, that’s his value.” Stewart continues to say that Toussaint has not thrown 96 mph with the D-Backs, despite some scouting reports and that there’s “some inflation of what people think Touki is."

it's bad form to devalue a player after he's been traded, so either he's being deceptive (which he's done all year) or he's being truthful, which is somewhat surprising.

Back to Rosenthal’s piece, which has several more quotes from Stewart, including the GM’s own admission of surprise to his team’s current standing in the NL West. The D-Backs were built with an eye on the longer-term picture than 2015, says Stewart, and they’ll need to assess how to respond at the deadline. To this point, the D-Backs have received inquiries on their starting pitching, but not on their middle infield. Stewart flatly says “…we’re not moving [Nick] Ahmed,” and calls a trade of Chris Owings “very unlikely.” Interestingly, that does seem to indicate that the new GM values Ahmed over Owings.

umm... what? ahmed is valued higher than owings? interesting. here's more deception from Stewart saying he's surprised the DBacks are playing this well this year. all off season the memo was "we'll be a .500 or better team this year" which we are less than so far.

 

[Dback Jon]

very interesting comments by Dave Stewart..

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/...smond-toussaint-d-backs-samardzija-cotts.html


it's bad form to devalue a player after he's been traded, so either he's being deceptive (which he's done all year) or he's being truthful, which is somewhat surprising.


umm... what? ahmed is valued higher than owings? interesting. here's more deception from Stewart saying he's surprised the DBacks are playing this well this year. all off season the memo was "we'll be a .500 or better team this year" which we are less than so far.

Ahmed should be valued higher than Owings

 

[unseenaz]

Ahmed should be valued higher than Owings

I really don't see it. owings has shown throughout his career to include the minors that he is a much better hitter.

 

[Dback Jon]

I really don't see it. owings has shown throughout his career to include the minors that he is a much better hitter.

Ahmed's Defense puts him at a higher value, IMHO.



this year, both are currently hitting .234, but Ahmed as twice as many HR's and his .OBP is 66 points higher.

Ahmed draws walks at a rate 3x what Owings is doing, and strikes out far less.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I really don't see it. owings has shown throughout his career to include the minors that he is a much better hitter.

Did you miss me saying Ahmed is 4th on the team in WAR and the #1 defensive SS in the NL?

It isn't always about hitting.

 

[unseenaz]

Did you miss me saying Ahmed is 4th on the team in WAR and the #1 defensive SS in the NL?

It isn't always about hitting.

Ahmed is the number 1 defensive shortstop in the NL with a .976 fielding percentage? that puts him middle of the pack of qualifying shortstops. what numbers are you judging this by

as long as my middle infielders are competent in the field, I want them to be offensive. look at CO's minor league hitting, he was a .298 hitter in the minors, in 2013 he hit .330 with 180 hits in 125 games. Ahmed has been a .269 hitter with nothing to brag about offensively.

taking their very limited MLB sample size, especially when comparing this season alone is redundant. think big picture

saying that Ahmed is a better player is absurd.

 

[Phrazbit]

I don't think errors are a good way to quantify fielding. He gets to balls Owings does not.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Ahmed is the number 1 defensive shortstop in the NL with a .976 fielding percentage? that puts him middle of the pack of qualifying shortstops. what numbers are you judging this by

as long as my middle infielders are competent in the field, I want them to be offensive. look at CO's minor league hitting, he was a .298 hitter in the minors, in 2013 he hit .330 with 180 hits in 125 games. Ahmed has been a .269 hitter with nothing to brag about offensively.

taking their very limited MLB sample size, especially when comparing this season alone is redundant. think big picture

saying that Ahmed is a better player is absurd.

Defensive Range Factor per 9: 1st
Defensive Range Factor: 3rd
Total Runs Saved: 3rd

Now lets look at Owings versus Ahmed defensively on the two most commonly used advanced fielding.

Rtot yr: (Total zone fielding per 1200)

Ahmed: +14 Owings: -40

Rdrd yr (runs saved per 1200)

Ahmed: +19 Owings: -22

That is a big discrepancy.

You see, Ahmed can hit .220 and still be an incredibly valuable member of the Dbacks. That is why he is 4th in WAR on the team.

Owings has been so marginal at the plate and in the field he is actually dead last in Offensive Runs above replacement with a -8

Ahmed has a +8 (5th)

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I don't think errors are a good way to quantify fielding. He gets to balls Owings does not.

Correct. It is like saying that wins and saves are what you judge pitchers by.

 

[unseenaz]

Defensive Range Factor per 9: 1st
Defensive Range Factor: 3rd
Total Runs Saved: 3rd

Now lets look at Owings versus Ahmed defensively on the two most commonly used advanced fielding.

Rtot yr: (Total zone fielding per 1200)

Ahmed: +14 Owings: -40

Rdrd yr (runs saved per 1200)

Ahmed: +19 Owings: -22

That is a big discrepancy.

You see, Ahmed can hit .220 and still be an incredibly valuable member of the Dbacks That is why he is 4th in WAR on the team.

Owings has been so marginal at the plate and in the field he is actually dead last in Offensive Runs above replacement with a -8

Ahmed has a +8 (5th)

Ok if that's really the response your going with this argument is going nowhere. Have fun with your SS batting .220 "oh but he can field!"

 

[unseenaz]

Correct. It is like saying that wins and saves are what you judge pitchers by.

Not even remotely similar

 

[GatorAZ]

Ahmed is so good defensively i don't care that he's a poor hitter but you can't have two poor hitters up the middle. Owings needs to turn it around and fast.

 

[unseenaz]

How many times is nick ahmed going to range farther than an average fielding shortstop can range, make a play and save a run? How many times will that run make a difference in the outcome of the game. Mark that against a guy consistently hitting .270 or better and driving in runs on a consistent basis? Saber metrics are good in theory, but they are not the end all be all. How far into the saber metrics rabbit hole must you be to sit down and watch a game and think to yourself that ahmed looks like more of a complete player than owings. I'm baffled by everyone's responses

 

[Phrazbit]

I dunno, feel like I don't even need the sabermetrics to like Owings more than Ahmed. I'm not in love with either one but Owings looks to me like a weak fielding singles hitter. If Owings looked like a legit player at the dish it would be one thing but he does not draw walks, he does not hit for power... right now he does not even hit for average.

Hypothetically, if he were hitting .280 but with a .310 OBP and a low slugging I still wouldn't see a lot of value there.