DBacks Trade Touki Toussaint & Bronson Arroyo to the Braves

[82CardsGrad]

How many times is nick ahmed going to range farther than an average fielding shortstop can range, make a play and save a run? How many times will that run make a difference in the outcome of the game. Mark that against a guy consistently hitting .270 or better and driving in runs on a consistent basis? Saber metrics are good in theory, but they are not the end all be all. How far into the saber metrics rabbit hole must you be to sit down and watch a game and think to yourself that ahmed looks like more of a complete player than owings. I'm baffled by everyone's responses

FWIW, if I had to choose between the two, I'd go with Ahmed. Ahmed's defense speaks for itself. And yes, Owings isn't too shabby either in the field, but he's not on Ahmed's level.
And over the past 1 1/2 months or so, Ahmed has completely owned Owings at the plate. Further, for me, Ahmed passes the eye test way more than Owings. Ahmed just looks like a solid baller more so than Owings... at least for me.

 

[GatorAZ]

League-average OPS among SS's = .654
Ahmed = .651

Average hitter and #1 in DRS (defensive runs saved)

Diamondbacks have some issues but SS isn't one of them currently.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Ok if that's really the response your going with this argument is going nowhere. Have fun with your SS batting .220 "oh but he can field!"

Really my response? I brought facts into your suppositions.

41 runs is the defensive difference on the year between Owings and Ahmed.

Owings isn't going to provide a 41 run advantage on offense.

The game isn't played in batting cages.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

How many times is nick ahmed going to range farther than an average fielding shortstop can range, make a play and save a run? How many times will that run make a difference in the outcome of the game. Mark that against a guy consistently hitting .270 or better and driving in runs on a consistent basis? Saber metrics are good in theory, but they are not the end all be all. How far into the saber metrics rabbit hole must you be to sit down and watch a game and think to yourself that ahmed looks like more of a complete player than owings. I'm baffled by everyone's responses

Uh, those stats all explain that.

Your baffled because your wrong.

 

[unseenaz]

Uh, those stats all explain that.

Your baffled because your wrong.

Well that's not quite it. But time will tell, huh? Let's revisit this thread in the future and see how your "defensive" shortstop is holding up.

 

[DWKB]

Saber metrics are good in theory, but they are not the end all be all. How far into the saber metrics rabbit hole must you be to sit down and watch a game and think to yourself ...

You could have gotten away with saying this 10 years ago, and people were using these exact words almost like they were issued to them back then. "Good in theory" "not the end all be all".

You can't now though. Why do you think StL was hacking into Hou network, to see their videos? The winners of the WS are using metrics now and the also rans and losers aren't. Metrics has made it's way into football and basketball as well.

You are out of the loop, you have a few choices to make:

You can educate yourself like Chris has done. If I recall, he's fairly new to checking out metrics, but he's learned.
You can defer to people when they bring up metrics as not being fluent in them.
You can attempt to argue against them and end up often looking foolish, because you're not taking all information into account and end up a relic claiming something silly like closers are worth more than starters.
You can quit talking sports because metrics are not going away, they are expanding into the fan base.

The truth is, metrics are good in practice as seen by MLB, and nobody is claiming them to be the end all or be all, they are simply using more information than you are.

 

[unseenaz]

You could have gotten away with saying this 10 years ago, and people were using these exact words almost like they were issued to them back then. "Good in theory" "not the end all be all".

You can't now though. Why do you think StL was hacking into Hou network, to see their videos? The winners of the WS are using metrics now and the also rans and losers aren't. Metrics has made it's way into football and basketball as well.

You are out of the loop, you have a few choices to make:

You can educate yourself like Chris has done. If I recall, he's fairly new to checking out metrics, but he's learned.
You can defer to people when they bring up metrics as not being fluent in them.
You can attempt to argue against them and end up often looking foolish, because you're not taking all information into account and end up a relic claiming something silly like closers are worth more than starters.
You can quit talking sports because metrics are not going away, they are expanding into the fan base.

The truth is, metrics are good in practice as seen by MLB, and nobody is claiming them to be the end all or be all, they are simply using more information than you are.

Good post.

Maybe I could learn a little more about advanced statistics. I don't think I'll ever buy into Ahmed batting as low as .220 and still being the best option at short, but I'll read into it a little bit. The migration of old school to new school.

By the way, you don't have to get very far into stats to know a starter is more valuable than a closer.

Since your in the discussion, Owings or Ahmed?

 

[DWKB]

Good post.

Maybe I could learn a little more about advanced statistics. I don't think I'll ever buy into Ahmed batting as low as .220 and still being the best option at short, but I'll read into it a little bit. The migration of old school to new school.

It's more that if Ahmed keeps up this type of defensive performance he can hit .220 and be an overall productive player. Obviously hitting better with defense or hitting much better with less defense would also work for a player. It's simply trying to find the right value balance on both sides of the field.

By the way, you don't have to get very far into stats to know a starter is more valuable than a closer.

If you started watching MLB in the 1950's it's probably not as easy. After all, OBP is esoteric to those guys. It's all AVG.

Since your in the discussion, Owings or Ahmed?

This year, easily Ahmed so far. Career projection, toss up IMO with a lean towards Owings.

 

[unseenaz]

It's more that if Ahmed keeps up this type of defensive performance he can hit .220 and be an overall productive player. Obviously hitting better with defense or hitting much better with less defense would also work for a player. It's simply trying to find the right value balance on both sides of the field.

Ok now your talking my language. My argument all along was that the drop off between Ahmed and Owings on defense is to a degree that I would prefer Owings due to his ability at the plate and how he was performing last year pre-injury. Now obviously if he keeps batting the way he is Ahmed is clearly the better option of the 2, which I've never denied. But the basis of all my previous statements were not founded on Ownings being and staying a .230 hitter

So is the era of the Adam Dunn's, Mark Trumbo's and Ryan Howards over if teams adopt into this more?

 

[BC867]

For the record, Nick Ahmed has been hitting .300 to raise his batting average above Chris Owings as of now. And Ahmed has shown some power He has 4 HR to Owings' 2. And is just a few RBI's behind him.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

You can educate yourself like Chris has done. If I recall, he's fairly new to checking out metrics, but he's learned.

This is correct. As recently as last year I ignored them and was very "old school"...hence my defense of Towers. Being consistently incorrect on the moves we were making at the time basically had me start looking at these advanced stats.

 

[Matt L]

IF they are making moves to get ready to spend some money in the off season, I wonder if they are targeting Matt Wieters form Baltimore. He's a Boras client so he is going to cost a good amount of coin but he is a legit catcher and provides offense too.

 

[az jam]

Nick Piecoro ‏@nickpiecoro 6h6 hours ago
RT @AndyJ0seph #DBacks GM Dave Stewart said Touki Toussaint never threw 96. He's throwing 98 with the Braves.

And the money saved is still in Ken Kendricks pockets.

 

[GatorAZ]

Saw that on Fox Sports last night. Stewart is just a puppet/fall guy. They should fed him some crap to say after the trade to demean the prospect

 

[overseascardfan]

Nick Piecoro ‏@nickpiecoro 6h6 hours ago
RT @AndyJ0seph #DBacks GM Dave Stewart said Touki Toussaint never threw 96. He's throwing 98 with the Braves.

And the money saved is still in Ken Kendricks pockets.

But he's 4 - 5 years away from the big leagues.

 

[TJ]

Cognitive dissonance at its finest

 

[sundevil04]

IF they are making moves to get ready to spend some money in the off season, I wonder if they are targeting Matt Wieters form Baltimore. He's a Boras client so he is going to cost a good amount of coin but he is a legit catcher and provides offense too.

With Beef Wellington playing as well as he is I don't see any reason they'd be spending money on a catcher

 

[devilalum]

Bump.
I don't think we devoted enough time to being pissed about this. They didnt just sell a TOP prospect, they sold their integrity. Now they just look like a franchise thats only concern is to maintain the status quo and make money.

 

[82CardsGrad]

Bump.
I don't think we devoted enough time to being pissed about this. They didnt just sell a TOP prospect, they sold their integrity. Now they just look like a franchise thats only concern is to maintain the status quo and make money.

LOL... Seriously?

 

[sundevil04]

Bump.
I don't think we devoted enough time to being pissed about this. They didnt just sell a TOP prospect, they sold their integrity. Now they just look like a franchise thats only concern is to maintain the status quo and make money.

Go away.

 

[Dback Jon]

This trade is an interesting read on Touki's trade on the day of his MLB debut..

 

[gmabel830]

This is an interesting read on Touki's Major League debut...

No Link

 

[Dback Jon]

No Link

Clarified - I was referring to this old thread - reactions to the trade, and others (Ahmed vs Owings), etc. from 2015

 

[Phrazbit]

What a disaster.

It's really hard to put to order what is the worst trade the Dbacks took part in, dating from the start of the KT era to the end of Stewart. There are a lot of options. I remember KT doing interviews and telling any who would listen exactly what he was looking for and straight up naming guys in our organization that he was willing or looking to move.

It's flat out astonishing that we are where we are. We've had some amazing skill in player development or flat out luck in having some unheralded guys come out of the woodwork and succeed.

The defensive metrics and pitch framing stats show that Hazen is playing his own brand of money ball. I hope he survives what will likely be a rocky year in 2019, I like the guy.

Jumping back to KT, stunningly, I think his worst trade wasn't even one he pulled with us. He traded Jason Bay for Brian Giles. At the time Bay was one of the top prospects in baseball and had only just made his MLB debut, Giles was a 32 year old former all-star nearing free agency... and they played the same position. Bay outproduced Giles instantly... while making about 1/30th of Giles salary and with 6 years of club control remaining.