Deandre Ayton discussion

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Which means precisely nothing. Luka has nobody close to CP3 and Book on that roster.

Happy we are better than the Mavs, but you’ll be hard pressed to prove Ayton is better based on that stat.

Never said he was better, but he has impacted winning more this year. Also, I think Luka’s flaws (relies on free throws, defensive liability) are more exposed in the playoffs.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Win shares obviously mean *something*

Booker moved up 20 spots on win share list from last night’s game alone!

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Win shares obviously mean *something*

Booker moved up 20 spots on win share list from last night’s game alone!

Hmm, I would think such a jump on limited data would actually undermine the legitimacy of the metric. Or I guess the margin of difference in win share among those 20 is so narrow that a single terrific game can cause such a large leap, which again seems to undermine the weight I’d give metric.

 

[Chaplin]

Hmm, I would think such a jump on limited data would actually undermine the legitimacy of the metric. Or I guess the margin of difference in win share among those 20 is so narrow that a single terrific game can cause such a large leap, which again seems to undermine the weight I’d give metric.

In that respect, how good is Ayton's number since those 4 games a month ago (or however long ago it was) where he was almost perfect?

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Hmm, I would think such a jump on limited data would actually undermine the legitimacy of the metric. Or I guess the margin of difference in win share among those 20 is so narrow that a single terrific game can cause such a large leap, which again seems to undermine the weight I’d give metric.

Nah, it’s more that players are pretty tightly packed together. The point is that an obviously outstanding game had a clear positive impact to win shares. Matches up with eye test. It’s ONE metric that is a good heuristic for quality. It’s a lot better than angry fans of a player screaming about points and disrespect and wins.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

In that respect, how good is Ayton's number since those 4 games a month ago (or however long ago it was) where he was almost perfect?

Ayton has been steadily moving up on WS list in February. Especially with his recent exemplary performances against Bulls and Wolves.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Issue is that casual folks underestimate defensive impact and STARE AT POINTS AND REBOUNDS.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Nah, it’s more that players are pretty tightly packed together. The point is that an obviously outstanding game had a clear positive impact to win shares. Matches up with eye test. It’s ONE metric that is a good heuristic for quality. It’s a lot better than angry fans of a player screaming about points and disrespect and wins.

You must not have read the second part of my post where I directly addressed the players being tightly packed. If a single terrific game causes you to jump 20 players then those 20 players must be relatively negligible in difference in the eyes of the metric. That in turn limits the effectiveness of the metric in my eyes. Unless it’s purpose is purely to delineate differences in the margins of relatively identical valued players.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Ayton has been steadily moving up on WS list in February. Especially with his recent exemplary performances against Bulls and Wolves.

You address the list, but that could be attributable to either Ayton excelling or those in front of him sucking, or a combination of both, right? Is there a way to determine to what to attribute his movement up?

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

You must not have read the second part of my post where I directly addressed the players being tightly packed. If a single terrific game causes you to jump 20 players then those 20 players must be relatively negligible in difference in the eyes of the metric. That in turn limits the effectiveness of the metric in my eyes. Unless it’s purpose is purely to delineate differences in the margins of relatively identical valued players.

Nah, it’s more that in a 30 game sample one of those games being hyper elite will tend to improve the WS of that player in the particular cohort in which he finds himself.

Book is still nowhere near Paul/Bridges/Ayton and will probably not pass them by the end of the year even if he plays really well. If he puts up 40 on hyper efficiency the rest of the year he will be top15ish if not higher.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

You address the list, but that could be attributable to either Ayton excelling or those in front of him sucking, or a combination of both, right? Is there a way to determine to what to attribute his movement up?

Generally speaking, players who start the year (first 10 games) in the top30 tend to be great players who are healthy. A few are guys running really hot from the floor who cool off. The best way to determine how to attribute moves up is to carefully watch players on both ends of the floor, assess their relative impact (apart from efficiency via stats), and then include statistical efficiency (turnovers bad; assists and efficient scoring good; fouls bad; etc).

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Bad/mediocre defenders who are extremely good at offense CONSISTENTLY, tend to be top20 guys. Book was 16th last year fwiw.

 

[JCSunsfan]

What it would seem like, at least at face value, is that Ayton has struggled to adjust to CP3 more than most on the team. That would be what it seems like just by looking at numbers. Maybe to some it seems like he is loafing more this year than last, and maybe that is the case. The question would be why. Is he lazy, or a bit confused with a new leader and pace, or maybe his THC levels are elevated?

It did seem like he was more comfortable last year with Rubio and the faster pace of the game. The Suns have slowed it down considerably this year and are passing a lot more. That makes the half-court offense more complex with more decisions for every player to make in each possession. Ayton's size and athleticism are off the charts, but his bball IQ is closer to average. He is surrounded by players with much more in the way of bball smarts than he has--CP3, Book, Bridges, Kaminski, Johnson, Crowder, Saric, and even Payne are pretty heady players. Ayton obviously is taking longer to adjust.

I prefer to think this is the problem rather than just motor, but I am speculating.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Ayton is playing better this year than last year. Funny to me that fans can’t see that.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

He’s extremely smart, too. Most responsibility on our top5 defense. Really is the fulcrum of the offense. Very good passer. Twenty freaking two.

 

[Cheesebeef]

He’s extremely smart, too. Most responsibility on our top5 defense. Really is the fulcrum of the offense. Very good passer. Twenty freaking two.

lol... what? The fulcrum of the offense?

 

[ProdigalSun]

He’s extremely smart, too. Most responsibility on our top5 defense. Really is the fulcrum of the offense. Very good passer. Twenty freaking two.

Are you Ayton’s agent or related to him or something? I’m optimistic on Ayton still but I can see he’s got major flaws and growth needed before he is anywhere near being a star

 

[AzStevenCal]

What it would seem like, at least at face value, is that Ayton has struggled to adjust to CP3 more than most on the team. That would be what it seems like just by looking at numbers. Maybe to some it seems like he is loafing more this year than last, and maybe that is the case. The question would be why. Is he lazy, or a bit confused with a new leader and pace, or maybe his THC levels are elevated?

It did seem like he was more comfortable last year with Rubio and the faster pace of the game. The Suns have slowed it down considerably this year and are passing a lot more. That makes the half-court offense more complex with more decisions for every player to make in each possession. Ayton's size and athleticism are off the charts, but his bball IQ is closer to average. He is surrounded by players with much more in the way of bball smarts than he has--CP3, Book, Bridges, Kaminski, Johnson, Crowder, Saric, and even Payne are pretty heady players. Ayton obviously is taking longer to adjust.

I prefer to think this is the problem rather than just motor, but I am speculating.

There wasn't as much complaining about Ayton in the game threads the past two years but that's because there were fewer posters participating in those threads - the complaints about Ayton have been there all along. AFAIC this is easily his best season even if his scoring has taken a little hit.

 

[Covert Rain]

Ayton is absolutely playing better this year. He is actually a presence. I have seen growth. I think people forget all the lean years at center where we bitched and complained that the player we had never got better. Never showed signs of getting better. I was really really worried about Ayton heading into this year. Don't get me wrong. Dude has some stuff he needs to work on but I see signs of hope and at times he has looked really good.

There is zero shot this team is top 4 defensively without Ayton. The team has been right around the top 10 all season defending the paint compared to last year we were at the bottom 10 in the NBA. The team is top 8 in contested shots.

Ayton is the 5th best overall rebounder in the NBA. At the center position 8th best scoring, #10 in field goals made, 6th in FG%, 4th in rebounding. I was going to be all over him this season if I didn't see something but IMO he is progressing.

 

[taz02]

Have the suns ever had a better Center? Amare' I guess, but wasn't he our center only because we didn't have one?

 

[AzStevenCal]

Have the suns ever had a better Center? Amare' I guess, but wasn't he our center only because we didn't have one?

He was a different kind of center but Alvan Adams had the best career here of any Suns center. But the pickings have been slim and DA could and should pass them all by eventually. I'd say Ayton is already on the short list, that's how unimpressive our center history is.

I've never really considered Amare as a center nor Marion as a power forward, to me we just played without a center during those years. But if you consider Stat a center, he gave us our best center seasons.

 

[Mainstreet]

Have the suns ever had a better Center? Amare' I guess, but wasn't he our center only because we didn't have one?

Ayton is the best center the Suns have had unless one wants to count Amare.

Personally I considered Amare a power forward that played center.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

lol... what? The fulcrum of the offense?

Our offense literally depends on his screen setting, roll gravity and rim dominance. A high percentage of our plays are initiated off an Ayton screen, his gravity creates space for Booker and Paul to take shots in the mid range and for our three point shooters to get good looks.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Are you Ayton’s agent or related to him or something? I’m optimistic on Ayton still but I can see he’s got major flaws and growth needed before he is anywhere near being a star

The fact he had fixable flaws and can be even better than 19th in WS is what makes him so enticing as a 22 year old. Zion Bam Luka are the only other guys his age that are in the same class now. Luka is mostly a finished product. Bam/Zion/Ayton are going to be the class of bigs for the next decade.

 

[taz02]

I read somewhere that Ayton didn't start playing basketball until he was 12, Luka signed his first contract with Real Madrid when he was 13.