Derek Brown

[Jetstream Green]

Another person's post from internet...very detailed (pre-combine). I dropped in his combine numbers for comparison.

Posted by Jaguars
u/TheSlinger

A Case Against Derrick Brown in the Top 10

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This post is largely motivated by him being commonly mocked to the Jaguars and me detesting that pick.

Recent history (I looked at last ten years) shows that Derrick Brown, as a 320 pound senior defensive tackle who is primarily a run-stuffer with middling pass rush production, is not the type of player to be drafted in the top ten.

I would go so far as to say he's almost a draft cliche - the strong run defender who people push up boards saying "oh but he's good against the pass too!" But they're not. At least not to the caliber necessary to be considered in the top ten. And so these players fall out of the top ten or the first round entirely, and even then it usually turned out that they were overdrafted.

Players I put in this category include, but are not limited to, Dan Williams, Johnathan Hankins, Star Lotulelei, Danny Shelton, and Vita Vea. All of these players were at one point hyped as top ten, and in some cases top 5 players, and went lower than expected. I would argue that in most, if not all cases, they were still overdrafted. In particular with Brown I think since he played at Auburn he had the opportunity to make a couple of splash plays in big situations that have made people believe Brown is some dominant pass rusher that he is not.

While people have started to argue that interior defensive line is now a premium position based on how much interior pressure affects QBs, teams have not drafted that way. In the last ten years, the only players I would classify as interior defensive linemen drafted in the top ten have been:

• Ndamukong Suh
• Gerald McCoy
• Tyson Alualu
• Marcell Dareus
• Leonard Williams
• Quinnen Williams
• Ed Oliver

Solomon Thomas and DeForest Buckner have also been drafted in the top ten and may be classified as interior defensive linemen depending on your definition; however it's easy to say that they are very different players from Brown based on role, measurables, and production so you'll excuse me if I exclude them.

So here's Derrick Brown at a glance:

• Senior
• Listed 6'4" 318, estimated 5.06 40 time
• 3 sacks and 9 TFL in 2017. 4.5 sacks and 10.5 TFL in 2018. 4.0 sacks and 11.5 TFL in 2019

Let's compare him to the above seven players one-by-one. Yes this is superficial. Yes this is largely based on combine times and box score scouting. If you have a strong argument as to why Brown is, in fact, comparable to these players I'm happy to hear it.

Ndamukong Suh

• Drafted as a senior
• 6'4" 307, 4.98 40, 4.44 SS, 7.21 3-cone, 35.5 vert, 8'9" broad
• 7.5 sacks and 16 TFL in 2008. 12.0 sacks and 20.5 TFL in 2009.
• Suh had one of the best college seasons by a college defender ever. In the conversation for best DT prospect ever. I don't think anybody would argue Brown is in his league. Very different in both style and caliber. Next.

Gerald McCoy

• Drafted as a junior
• 6'4" 295, 4.99 40, 4.48 ss 7.32 3-cone, 30.5" vert, 9'6" broad
• 6.5 sacks, 11 TFL in 2008. 6.0 sacks 15.5 TFL in 2009.
• Similar to Suh in caliber and style. While Brown may get in their ballpark in the 40 I can't imagine him approaching their overall athleticism. Both were true explosive 3-tech interior pass rushers that Brown is not.

Tyson Alualu

• Drafted as a senior

• 6'2" 295 4.87 40 4.43 SS 7.15 3-cone 35.5" vert 9'8" broad

• 6.0 sacks, 11 TFL in 2008. 7.5 sacks, 11.5 TFL in 2009
• Athletically he was actually a marvel and slightly outproduced Derrick Brown. Also he played in a true 3-man front where he didn't get the opportunities to rush the passer that Brown has. More importantly Alualu is considered one of the great draft reaches who was expected AT BEST to sneak into the late 1st and while he's carved out a career as quality depth, he's never come close to living up to this draft position

Marcell Dareus

• Drafted as a junior
• 6'3" 319, 4.93 40, 4.62 S, 7.83 3-cone, 27" vert, 8'10" broad jump
• 6.5 sacks, 9.0 TFL in 2009. 4.5 sacks 11.0 TFL in 2010
• If you're a Brown fan, Dareus is the comparison you would point to. He has some similarities both in terms of physical attributes and production. I don't see Brown breaking sub-5 in the 40, though the other numbers are achievable. Production-wise it's important to note that unlike Brown, Dareus also played in a true 3-man front where his primary role was to eat up blockers, not rush the passer. Also he was a junior; if he was given a senior season to develop like Brown he may have far surpassed him.

Leonard Williams

• Drafted as a junior
• 6'5" 302, 4.97 40, 4.53 SS, 7.5 3-cone, 29.5 vert, 8'10" broad
• 8.0 sacks, 13.5 TFL in 2012. 5.0 sacks, 12.5 TFL in 2013. 7.0 sacks, 9.5 TFL in 2014
• Another different style player who is longer, leaner, and likely more athletic than Brown will be. While he was criticized for not having terrific production he managed 35.5 TFL and 20 sacks in his FR-SO-JR seasons compared to Brown's 11.5 sacks and 30.5 TFL in his SO-JR-SR seasons. He's also been considered a disappointment as his pass rush production in the NFL has not matched the expectations for a top ten pick.

Quinnen Williams

• Drafted as a RS Sophomore
• 6'3", 303, 4.83 40, 30.5" vert, 9'4" broad
• 8.0 sacks, 19.5 TFL in 2018
• While somewhat of a one-year wonder, he far outstrips Brown in athleticism and production in that year while having less experience. Much different player

Ed Oliver

• Drafted as a junior
• 6'2" 287, 36" vert, 10' broad (no 40)
• 5.0 sacks, 22 TFL in 2016. 5.5 sacks, 16.5 TFL in 2017. 3.0 sacks, 14.5 TFL in 2018
• While his sack production was marginal, his TFL production was absurd. He's another smaller, quicker, more explosive type DT which Brown is not. He was also in a situation where he was the only notable defensive lineman and received an absurd amount of attention from defenses.

So there are the seven. All but two were underclassmen. None who ran the 40 were above 5.00. All except Dareus were more productive, some by a large amount, in either TFL, sacks, or both. While I can find numerous players similar to Brown who were highly touted but dropped out of the top ten or first round, I do not see a strong comparison to any players in the top ten. It is hard for a true interior defensive lineman to be drafted top ten. To be drafted in the top ten a defensive lineman has to be outstanding in either physical ability or production so that they can be projected to be a true dominant interior pass rusher. I believe that Brown lacks both.

I bet there are also players with similar combine numbers as those used to discredit Brown who were busts. My point being the combine continues to prompt teams into idiotic knee jerk decisions when the tape really does not lie

 

[cardsfanmd]

Jeremiah ranks Brown above Quinnan Williams from last year.

They’re not even close. The people who hyped up Williams were dumb. Said it then. Still saying it now. The dude doesn’t have anything going on between his ears.

 

[TheCardFan]

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[TheCardFan]

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[TheCardFan]

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[TheCardFan]

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[SoonerLou]

Starting to think he's the pick....and I'm mixed on it tbh.

Think he's a good player, but I'd rather go OL.

 

[Chopper0080]

Starting to think he's the pick....and I'm mixed on it tbh.

Think he's a good player, but I'd rather go OL.

I have a first round mock draft that I will post and think we trade down and get him.

 

[mjb21aztd]

Starting to think he's the pick....and I'm mixed on it tbh.

Think he's a good player, but I'd rather go OL.

Meh really hopping it's Simmons lamb or oline at 8 just seen bit of dline bust picks in az

 

[b8rtm8nn]

I will be pissed if we take him at 8 if we could have traded down.

 

[DVontel]

This setting up for Brown to have a much better career than Simmons & Lamb.

 

[Finito]

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Say what you want about him he flat out doesn’t go backwards AT ALL.

He’s a Justin Smith or Clowney type he’s not going to pile up sacks but your going to need to double him and need to account for him and you ain’t going to be able to run to his side.

front 7 defense or offensive line I’m good. I pretty much rate the defensive players ahead of all the tackles in this draft. Young, Simmons, Okudah and Brown

 

[football karma]

what I would like about Brown as the pick:


in a division where all three teams offenses start with running the ball ( 49ers and Seahawks especially / Rams with their passing game all coming off of play action): I think being able to stop the run without having to commit a safety close is helpful.

 

[WisconsinCard]

This setting up for Brown to have a much better career than Simmons & Lamb.

Maybe but IMO he'll play far fewer snaps then the other two. So taking that into consideration when looking at "more impactful". I personally don't want anything to do with brown.

 

[ajcardfan]

Meh really hopping it's Simmons lamb or oline at 8 just seen bit of dline bust picks in az

That means we are due. Right?

 

[DVontel]

Maybe but IMO he'll play far fewer snaps then the other two. So taking that into consideration when looking at "more impactful". I personally don't want anything to do with brown.

How much does that even matter if he’s bringing far more impact in those plays? It’s not like Lamb is going to touch the ball every play.


It’s fine though. I kind of expect Brown to have a good career for another team while Isaiah Simmons never reaches his ceiling because he’s under the wrong DCs & Lamb is only a Robert Woods-esque WR. It’s almost becoming too obvious to me.

 

[PACardsFan]

I don't know how you can refer to Chaisson as elite.

At the 8 pick.... we have the chance to get one of the top tier positional players in this draft. And regardless of what many think of DJ Humphries, he is going to be our LT (probably) into his early thirties. You just dont give up on guys like him.

We need a RT. I don't care how good KK schemed his offense to avoid it, our RT position is our biggest problem. Followed by Center.

On defense..... the ILB spot is not only the biggest need on defense.... it is the biggest need positionally on both sides of the ball. I keep having to say this, but our defense gave up the 2nd best TE fantasy season of all time. All freaking time!!!

You can't pass up an opportunity to grab an elite pass rusher (young) or a top tier CB prospect (Okudah) but other than that..... our two main priorities need to be Simmons or Wills.

If they like Wirfs over Wills..... fine. It will be dissapointing to me, but take the damn dude.

With that being said..... I will not hate on this team for doubling down on our offensive firepower. EVER. Especially if it means not drafting Brown or Becton (My two choices for biggest bomb of the draft). Give me Lamb, Jeudy, or Ruggs WAY BEFORE those two.

The top tier of this draft in order:
Young
Okudah
Simmons

The next tier in order:
Wills
Lamb
Jeudy

The next tier in no particular order
Ruggs
Wirfs
Thomas
Kinlaw

After that..... the Risk for each player goes up

100% agree. Did you steal this entire post off my desk

 

[Syracusecards]

Man I hope we get him. Just knowing that we finally have a disruptive defensive tackle who is a good person, hard worker, loves football, and is incredibly talented... if you watch any film on him, look how he always keeps his head up to see what’s going on with the play. He is not just going through the motions and getting locked up by a guard, he is looking to see where he needs to go to make a play and at the same time pushing his man into the backfield.

 

[PACardsFan]

I've gone back & forth with Brown over the past couple months. In the past it has made me very nervous to draft IDL's because it just never seems to pan out when the Cardinals go that route. But, something tells me that this kid will make a very good NFL player. Combine warriors are exactly that. Can do it all in shorts & t-shirts, but when it's time to actually play football, they don't quite match up. Because he had an average combine, I think this kid will play with a chip on his shoulder. And I love high motor players with a chip on their shoulder. High character kid, whose Mom & Dad emphasized education as much as sports. He's not my 1st choice, probably not my 2nd or 3rd either, but I won't be disappointed if he's the guy we end up picking.

 

[wit3card]

Brown is a run stopper, he isn't a shiny toy but I would be okay with him
Simmons is a great LB I think he will be good nonethless of the Coach, but a good DC will make him the best ILB in the game probably
Lamp and Juedy are bona fide WR that will be a great addition to any Offense

But on the OL, drating a RT in the top 10 is ... maybe a stretch I'm not sold on any of this OL players, and the last time I was so ... unimpressed by tape, we ended up with Cooper. I wanted to give him a chance, he played quite well in preseason, but after the injury he was a bust. The rest of that OL draft top 15 players weren't great as well. So I understand the Cards looking into someone that might go later, but where I see a year of NFL can make him a great player.


That all said, I will be okay with the pick, maybe not praise it but I hope to see it unfold in the best way.

 

[Ronin]

I would select Brown before I would pick a receiver.jmo

 

[Gandhi]

I bet there are also players with similar combine numbers as those used to discredit Brown who were busts. My point being the combine continues to prompt teams into idiotic knee jerk decisions when the tape really does not lie

That is probably the most spot on post in this thread.

This is a 315 lbs dude running and exploding like a wide receiver. When the Combine numbers does not reflect your expectations, you go back to watch the tape and see if you were wrong. Great post, Jetstream!

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[WisconsinCard]

Watched a lot of tape last night on Brown. I can see why everyone loves the dude. I was totally against drafting him. But let's just say I'm coming around. I would be scared but he could be a star. Love the kids motor, he does not quit on a play no matter what.

 

[Jetstream Green]

That is probably the most spot on post in this thread.

This is a 315 lbs dude running and exploding like a wide receiver. When the Combine numbers does not reflect your expectations, you go back to watch the tape and see if you were wrong. Great post, Jetstream!

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I always remember Deacon Jones talking about the combine and him saying that back in the day still holds true today that there is no bench in the middle of the fifty, cones, and there is not forty yards to the QB. Sure, the combine can offer some interesting data but one can honestly look at some of the all time greats, especially on defense, and know that their forty time probably was nothing to write home about, probably lifted more beer cans than weights, and good luck asking them to run a cone drill. I think the combine allots teams to note nuances in movement on a foundation level which escapes the average viewer that can hold importance but the tape or rather their actual ability to play the sport for which they are in the draft for the first place. I have a close friend who is my running partner which played college ball and he still insists they should wear pads and a helmet when doing all the drills at the combine because one simply moves different in the 'battle gear'... with me actually then defending the shorts and t-shirt saying "but Dave they want to see the movement at its purist foundation" lol

 

[CardNots]

I think Keim is prepared to move up not down for Brown. Personally I don’t believe Brown makes it past 5. Lamb the consolation prize. Crap it’s in writing now...