AZ Native
Living is Easy with Eyes Closed
Someone praised both Bell moves?
Someone praised both Bell moves?
The comparison is not Arroyo to Kershaw, it's Arroyo to the staff as a whole. It's not about Arroyo earning his keep by being his mediocre self, it's how he helps a mediocre team compete. How does his hopefully 200 IP of league avg ERA better our league average ERA staff of last year? Better yet, how does paying Arroyo $23.5M for the next two years look like a better option than paying Ian Kennedy $6M next year instead of trading him for two throw away relievers?
The answer to these questions is that this move doesn't make us better, it doubles down on mediocrity. Not only that, but it essentially replaces cheaper players we trade away with more expensive ones.
We tried to add a top line pitcher... Tanaka, Sale... didn't work out.
If you were to ask me who has a better shot at putting up 200 innings, a sub 1.3 WHIP and 13 wins - Cahill, McCarthy, Delgado or Arroyo - I think it goes without sayingt that Arroyo would be the answer to that question.
If you have a shot at grabbing that type of production from a #3/#4 pitcher, I say go for it... If nothing else, it provides very nice/strong depth.
Are you expecting 200 innings from Cahill, McCarthy and Delgado??
As for Kennedy, while I was not completely in favor of dumping him, I can understand why...
Outside of 2011, Kennedy was trending in an unfavorable direction and with high WHIP's and ERA's and generally becoming less and less effective. He also suffered a serious health/injury in '08/09 and I wouldn't be surprised if management became inpatient and concerned about Kennedy's trending and health short-term & long-term.
We tried to add a top line pitcher... Tanaka, Sale... didn't work out.
If you were to ask me who has a better shot at putting up 200 innings, a sub 1.3 WHIP and 13 wins - Cahill, McCarthy, Delgado or Arroyo - I think it goes without sayingt that Arroyo would be the answer to that question.
If you have a shot at grabbing that type of production from a #3/#4 pitcher, I say go for it... If nothing else, it provides very nice/strong depth.
Are you expecting 200 innings from Cahill, McCarthy and Delgado??
As for Kennedy, while I was not completely in favor of dumping him, I can understand why...
Outside of 2011, Kennedy was trending in an unfavorable direction and with high WHIP's and ERA's and generally becoming less and less effective. He also suffered a serious health/injury in '08/09 and I wouldn't be surprised if management became inpatient and concerned about Kennedy's trending and health short-term & long-term.
Where was the screw up that lead us to "need" Arroyo's 200 League Avg IP, 82?
Trading Kennedy for crap?
Exchanging Parker and $8M for Cahill?
Signing McCarthy for $10M?
Delgado not panning out like he was touted from the Upton trade?
We're spending $18M on Cahill and McCarthy this year per Towers' decisions and nobody is comfortable enough with them so we have to throw another $10M at Arroyo to give us hopefully a league avg ERA. I'm just curious when you and Kevin Towers look far enough ahead that you see the forest.
Last year we had a team ERA+ of 98, We are crossing our fingers that Arroyo gives us another year of his 101 ERA+. If we were already a 90 win team that would be fine, but we aren't. We are an 80 win team and Arroyo just treads the waters of mediocrity.
Kennedy's 26-28 years look better than Arroyo's 32-34 years. Arroyo came back with two league avg season after that. Kennedy's injury in 2008/09 means what exactly? He avg 200+ IP a year in the 4 years after that finishing top five in the CY. Just looking for excuses for this FO?
I just dont get where your faith comes from. You (sort of) admit that Cahill, McCarthy and Delgado are ALL not up to the task of being a reliable back end starter (which is a pretty low bar), yet all these dudes were brought in (and at significant cost) by Towers and have been failures. But now Towers is fixing it by bringing in a 37 year old gopher ball pitcher in decline (and giving him a two year deal)?
At what point do we stop paying high dollar amounts on guys who MIGHT accomplish mediocrity to cover up for guys who already failed in that effort?
You guys act like it's commonplace for your back of the rotation guys to make every start and pitch 200 innings. It's very common that, to get through the entire season, you will require 8, 9 or even 10 starters throught the season. I believe having Arroyo as our #3 or #4 only adds to our depth. And, getting innings out of your #3 and #4 is a HUGE plus for any team. We'll have to wait and see just how effective he really is. But again, I like his chances for tossing a bunch of innings and keeping our pen rested.
Bit of a disconnect here, I dont think its common place for the back end guys to make every start and pitch 200 innings, which is why I think Arroyo was a superfluous signing. That is a LOT of money to spend on a back end starter when we already had comparable talent. Its great that Arroyo has stayed healthy and all but if the output from all his healthy innings is roughly the same as what you'd get using an assortment of guys that were already on the roster and you'd save over 23 million over the next two years that could be spent elsewhere... I dont see the point.
And this is all assuming that Arroyo continues to produce at his merely mediocre level, which is far from a guarantee given his age, decline in velocity and propensity for giving up home runs. I would not be at all surprised if Arroyo given his age and the adjustments to a new home looks a lot like the Arroyo of 2011 who had an ERA in the 5s.
This seemed like another random move for the sake of spending money that was available, similar to the disastrous Cody Ross signing. If was not an ace to be had then fine, you didnt get an ace. Arroyo does not move the needle for this team, and thats a ton of money for what MIGHT give you an extra win or two if the guy does not decline.
I understand Towers has decided to be in "win now" mode (a insane way of constructing that probably deserves its own topic), but I dont see how Arroyo even fits that. If you're going throw down a lot of money on a gamble to "win now" then do it on some sort of high risk/high reward. Arroyo is high risk/low reward, a pitcher who even if we somehow manage to make the playoffs probably would not even be included in the post season rotation.
Who would be your pick for a high risk/high reward player where Towers should've dumped the $23 million on?
Again, most teams require 7/8/9 or more pitchers to get through a season. I'm fine with him spending the $$ for a guy like Arroyo. I don't believe the money going to Arroyo lead to, or will lead to other talent not being brough to the team that otherwise could've been had we not signed Arroyo.
I don't love the Arroyo signing, but I also don't like Delgado, and our depth at SP stinks. Seems like Bradley was always going to spend a couple months in the minors, so when McCarthy inevitably goes down, we'll see Bradley.
It's not like we were going to sign another SP with a compensatory pick assigned to him, so between pocketing the money this year, or having Arroyo, I'd prefer to have Arroyo.
Because the Dbacks are not a team with infinite financial resources. I'd rather they pocket the money and wait for something useful to spend it on.
The comparison is not Arroyo to Kershaw, it's Arroyo to the staff as a whole. It's not about Arroyo earning his keep by being his mediocre self, it's how he helps a mediocre team compete. How does his hopefully 200 IP of league avg ERA better our league average ERA staff of last year? Better yet, how does paying Arroyo $23.5M for the next two years look like a better option than paying Ian Kennedy $6M next year instead of trading him for two throw away relievers?
The answer to these questions is that this move doesn't make us better, it doubles down on mediocrity. Not only that, but it essentially replaces cheaper players we trade away with more expensive ones.
It's not like Arroyo's salary will be the difference between them offering a SP FA a big contract. They were willing to go big for Tanaka, and there are a lot of available pitchers headed into FA.
Maybe it will block them from signing someone big, maybe it wont. But I can say without a doubt that the compilation of bad contracts to mediocre/bad players absolutely blocks the team from adding real talent. The amount being paid next year to Cahill, McCarthy, Arroyo and Ross (four guys who were average at best before ever putting on a Dback uniform) is enough that the Dbacks could afford TWO legit stars for that kind of money. Instead we have some back end starters and a 4th/5th outfielder.
The Dbacks are paying a premium to field positions that should be handled by arbitration players, call-ups and journey men... and the response to this by some is to shrug and say "At least (whatever expensive mistake was brought in for the same purpose last year) won't be relied on anymore".
Once you make a pitcher your ace (unless he is 38 years old), it is a negative to demote him to middle-to-back of the rotation on the team.But you already had that in Kennedy and gave him away for nothing. Yes he was going through a massive slump. And that one season was probably a fluke. But he is still a fairly reliable middle-to-back of the rotation guy that costs MUCH less than Arroyo.
Once you make a pitcher your ace (unless he is 38 years old), it is a negative to demote him to middle-to-back of the rotation on the team.
It makes much more sense, for him and the team, to move him to another team rather than demote him and keep him.
It is the ol' Peter Principle. "In a hierarchy, every employee tends to rise to his level of incompetence."
A person promoted at work, who reaches a position they can't cut, would be the first to start job-hunting elsewhere at the level he previously held.
The D'backs took a chance making Kennedy the ace and faced the consequences of his failure to fulfill it. There was nothing wrong with trying it . . . and nothing wrong with resolving it in the most positive way.
So the Front Office operated under a "silly concept" by giving up on Ian Kennedy as their lead starter? I should hope they are more knowledgeable and professional than that.That is a silly silly concept.
And, speaking of Goldy... It's funny nobody mentions the deal Towers struck with him last year which locks him thru the 2019 season. And when you compare Goldy's deal to the contract the Braves just gave to Freddie Freeman, it makes the deal Towers struck all that much more awesome.
So the Front Office operated under a "silly concept" by giving up on Ian Kennedy as their lead starter? I should hope they are more knowledgeable and professional than that.
How easy it is for a fan to dismiss it as silly when millions of dollars and team balance are involved in their decision making.
Once you make a pitcher your ace (unless he is 38 years old), it is a negative to demote him to middle-to-back of the rotation on the team.
It makes much more sense, for him and the team, to move him to another team rather than demote him and keep him.
It is the ol' Peter Principle. "In a hierarchy, every employee tends to rise to his level of incompetence."
A person promoted at work, who reaches a position they can't cut, would be the first to start job-hunting elsewhere at the level he previously held.
The D'backs took a chance making Kennedy the ace and faced the consequences of his failure to fulfill it. There was nothing wrong with trying it . . . and nothing wrong with resolving it in the most positive way.
But the difference is that the D'backs made it a point to not name Corbin as the ace of the staff last year, whereas Kennedy had been.I don't agree with this. So you're basically telling me that if Corbin comes out and doesn't have the season he had last year - you trade him? What if others are performing better, but he's still pitching well enough to be the #3? What's the harm in that?
He became the "ace" last season and an all-star. This season he is expected to be #1 in the rotation. If he struggles a little compared to last year you move him down in the rotation. Pretty simple. Just because he's not pitching well enough to be the #1 doesn't mean he can't be a solid #2, #3, or #4.
I'm saying YOUR theory for why the DBacks dumped Kennedy is silly. Kennedy was not living up to the "ace" the previous season and they were not required to trade him.
IMO the Dbacks traded Kennedy for two reasons. One, because of the struggling starters he was the only one with any trade value (McCarthy and Cahill are worthless on their contracts). And two, because Towers has displayed almost no patience with struggling players.
And as an aside... Towers has done plenty that was neither knowledgeable or professional during his brief tenure.
Thought you might enjoy this from today's AZCentral:
By Nick Piecoro
azcentral sports
Wed Feb 12, 2014 7:32 AM
At the time, it was hard to imagine the Diamondbacks making a more significant move in 2013 than when they dealt Justin Upton to the Atlanta Braves in January. Turns out, they did something a couple of months later that might be just as substantial.
At the end of March, just before the start of the regular season, the Diamondbacks gave first baseman Paul Goldschmidt a five-year, $32 million extension, a deal that did not kick in until 2014 and also includes a $14.5 million team option for 2019, meaning the club could buy out two years of free agency.
The contract represented a mild risk for the Diamondbacks. Goldschmidt had yet to have a breakout year. He hadn’t hit right-handed pitching especially well. And he had slumped at the end of the previous year, hitting just two homers in his final 40 games.
But within two months, the deal looked like a stroke of genius from the team’s perspective. Goldschmidt quickly ascended into the upper echelon of major-league hitters and by year’s end was an MVP candidate.
Values change quickly in baseball, but at the moment, Goldschmidt’s contract might be the most team-friendly in the game. Kevin Towers’ decision to extend him might be considered the best move made by any general manager in the past 12 months.
Before calling it a bad deal for Goldschmidt, consider it from his perspective at the time, without the benefit of hindsight.
He was drafted in the eighth round in 2009 and didn’t become instantly rich with his first pro contract, receiving a $95,000 bonus.
There were no projection systems spitting out MVP-caliber stat lines for him. Scouts weren’t saying he had no holes in his game (as they sometimes say now). Even for position players, there’s a chance for injury.
The $32 million he was offered was a lot for a player with his service time. And it was $32 million, a life-changing amount of money.
“It’s easy to say now, after the fact, that hey, if you didn’t sign it, you could sign a bigger deal this year,” Goldschmidt said. “But what if you don’t play well or get hurt? You really don’t know. My whole thinking was you can only make the best decision you can at the time.”
Goldschmidt still has to show he can put together more big years. Assuming he can, the Diamondbacks will have a heck of a contract on their hands. They know it. They’re also open to balancing out the scales.
“If we need to make adjustments, and if he continues to perform this way — and there’s no reason to think he won’t — we’ll consider that,” Diamondbacks CEO Derrick Hall said. “There’s different ways we could do it. We could add on. We could tear it up and start over.
“The beautiful thing about Goldy is that he’s happy. He’s not one to say he could be getting more or shouldn’t have signed that deal. He doesn’t feel that way. That says a lot about him. He’s an amazing kid.”
Fact is, the deal is a game changer for the Diamondbacks. Imagine if they’d waited a year. Imagine an enormous contract for Goldschmidt looming. Would they have entertained the idea of pursuing Shin-Soo Choo? Would they have made the reported $120 million offer to Masahiro Tanaka?
The Diamondbacks’ financial aggressiveness this off-season is evidence they probably could have afforded to keep Goldschmidt even if they hadn’t extended him a year ago. So the deal’s importance is more about surrounding talent with talent. And that’s as significant as anything a team can do.
Sorry for not linking this, I could not get rid of the ads.