Phrazbit
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http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/post/_/id/1782/arizona-makes-mistake-by-signing-arroyo
Kieth Law's take.
Kieth Law's take.
Arroyo has long been homer-prone because he pitches with below-average velocity and doesn't have great movement or sink on whatever we want to call his fastball. While pitching in Cincinnati, one of the majors' most homer-friendly parks, hasn't helped, the reality of Arroyo's recent history is that he's not homer-prone because of Great American Ballpark -- he's homer-prone because he has below-average stuff. Over the last three years, his home run allowed rates have been nearly equal at home and on the road, whether we go by home runs per 9 innings pitched (1.59 at home versus 1.51 on the road) or by home runs per 30 batters faced (1.26 at home, 1.22 on the road). Any further loss of velocity will only exacerbate the issue, and his gopheritis is already one of the worst cases in the majors. This means he’s a few more homers a year away from being nonviable as a major-league starter.
Arroyo has also long had problems with left-handed hitters, another issue that isn't improving with age and that could intensify quickly with any loss of stuff. Over the last three years, lefties have hit .299/.339/.534 against Arroyo
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The oddest part about the signing is that the D-backs already had a player a lot like Arroyo last season and gave him away for 50 cents on the dollar: Ian Kennedy. Kennedy was also a homer-prone, fringy-fastball, strike-throwing innings eater type, but didn't have Arroyo's platoon-split issues and will make just $6 million in 2014.