Not the whole story. First you dont need to find a trend setter to replace the likes of Quan. You need to find an upgrade at another position, plus you have the draft pick or picks from the trade.
Not a single person is saying anything about not having the cap. It isnt a cap strapped issue it is a what would you rather spend your money on. Defense, OL, or one of the worst positions to spend your money on, WR, let alone two WR's. Again it is not a cap issue it is a cap usage issue.
Warner didnt take a pay cut, he took a restructure. A pay you less today and for your troubles we will pay you more later. Berry also did not take a pay cut. If he can get to certian production marks he will get his money back.
No one takes a flat out pay cut in the NFL. With so called pay cuts come, incentives, bonus money, or sacraficing future cap space. You want a player to take a pay cut you have to give them incentives to do so, which costs money.
The cap is based on current deals in place that pay the league and divided out per team. The biggest of which is 80% of the cap and that is the TV deal. That TV deal will not be redone until 2012. The cap will be Approx $140 by 2011 if the deal is redone. Depending on what percentage the players work out with the owners which will most likely stay at the 60%-68% range. The cap wont be in the 150-170 range until the 2012 season minimum.
But that is besides the point. Both Fitz and Boldin will be in the last years of their deal and the last years of a players deal are there most expensive and the 18 Mill of that 140 Mill isnt correct. If a deal for Boldin is similar to Fitz about 2 Mill less which is what Boldin is asking for 8 Mill a season then it would actually be 25 Mill out of 140 Mill which we get to the same issue again we will be using about 15% of the cap for two WR's. Just not a smart investment.
There is no law but there is a history that spending money on WR's is a bad investment and one of the least impactful positions on the football field. I think the NFL is finally figuring this out. There wasnt a single WR picked in the first round this year, teams are starting to spend on One WR instead of two nowadays. We wont two straight games against a combined 9-1 record teams. Our record without or without Boldin is almost exactly the same. Warner is playing just as good without him as he does with him. There comes a point were there is diminishing returns and that was never more true then with WR's.
Just look at the top 10 passing teams. They all have only one highly paid WR(Indy is the closet possible one and Wayne is only making 6.5 Mill a season). If you have a good QB you dont need two highly paid WR's, and the current top 10 passing teams show as such. You dont need two highly paid WR's even if you dont have a QB because there is no one to get them the ball.
Cap usage issue I understand. But what I'm saying is, if you don't use the cap, it's wasted. If you overpay somebody, it's wasted. There is no guarantee that an slight upgrade that costs you 1/2 of Q's capspace will be worth not having Q. A good backwards example is Breaston and B. Johnson. We could've resigned him, and it would have cost us a great deal more than breaston, yet breaston is clearly outperforming what B. Johnson was doing. We signed Al johnson, and many felt that he wasn't much better than sendlein. But was making 7 million a year roughly. Probably about 6 million more than sendlein.
With Q, you know you have a top flight, game changing player. You never want to subtract those from your team, you want to add them.
Picks are good, and we do seem to do well with them as of late. But I personally would take Q, over Al Johnson and a 3rd round pick. Even if it wasn't Al Johnson, but say Alan Faneca and a 3rd round pick, I'd keep Q.
You always have opportunity to upgrade your marginal talent. It's much easier to find a guy via fa, draft, or udfa that is marginally better than your current starter or backup, then it is to find another Q, Fitz, Wilson, et al.
Pay cut to the cap this year. LTBE for Berry most likely. If he doesn't make the numbers, we'll get additional cap space next year, if not and they are UTBE, then we won't gain anything. But either way, we got down to the cap, without cutting them, or someone else. Good teams, and teams that the players believe in, will take pay cuts, or restructure to stay with the team. Not everyone ofc, but generally enough do to make an impact year in an year out on some teams.
I'm not a fan of taking a trend setter, and simply increasing production slightly at say 2-3 positions...and even then that's not a guarantee. Many times you sign guys, and they don't pan out. Q already has panned out. I'm not a fan of trading a good player for 4 marginal players. 4 marginal players that might be in house already, or pretty easily surpassed in the draft. Not much separates players from practice squad to marginal starter status. These guys are all dime a dozen. They'll be plenty of them, year in, and year out.
Again I feel like we're taking some ethereal plan for making a good team, and applying it to us. It's apples and oranges, because very few teams, if ever, have had 2 physically superior wr's on their team, that are game changers. We buck the trend. It's not the norm, and it is special. It can't be judged on by the same rules as traditional teams might be measured up against. We're different, and we are here. We're not making judgments about drafting Q or Fitz, these have already occurred. We're here, and we're lucky to have both of them. Lightning in a bottle.
Cap strapped is an issue, if you are planning on using it elsewhere instead, it's an either/or, but either way that is painted, the cards are pictured to be up against the cap....whether it's boldin and fitz at wr, or fitz at wr, and another guy at another position.
Again though, say we needed a QB. Say we got rid of Q, so we could get a franchise QB. How many of them enter into FA? In other words, we might just get the cap space to spend on other areas, and not have anyone worth it for it to be spent on.
Some years it just isn't a good FA crop. Sometimes it's only good in a few areas, and other than trying to replace a stud with a stud, good finds can be had on FA market like a Travis Laboy or cheaper, that can have an impact. You can always find guys making 1.5-4 million that can end up being just as good as a guy making 7 million. I don't see how having Q on our team, affects us from signing 1 or 2 of these guys a year with Q during tight years, and maybe 4-5 during non-tight years.
Again the restructures as I understand them, are usually UTBE. This affects the next year, not the current year. We're not in a position where we have to cut anybody, and next year, is light years away. Generally though overall the team does get reductions. Not every UTBE will be earned, it just gives the guy a chance to recoup some money, and have it count against next year's cap.
Exactly. I wasn't suggesting it would be 150-170 mill cap next year or 2010, I'm thinking 2013-2015. All these deals are starting at 2009, a seven year deal would mean a 7 year deal runs 2009-2015. Which means if we sign dansby in the offseason to a 7 year deal, or extend Q's deal 4 or 5 years, we'll be dealing with a contract that in the last few years, would be in a scenario where Q and Fitz combine to make 18-22 million out of a 150-170 million cap.
You're right that contracts get more expensive. But if memory serves correct Fitz's contract is pretty even all the way across the board. I believe year 7 is less than 2 million more per year than year 1. A similar approach to boldin's contract can be done.
It doesn't have to be a 7 year 70 million dollar deal, where it's 4, 5, 6, 8, 12, 15, 20 million against the cap. Well of course it doesn't even have to be 70 million, just pulling those numbers out of the air.
Under my scenario it's more like 10-14 percent of a cap, for 2 of the best WR's in football. Even then, when the TV deal is done again, it could go up even more than we are expecting. It generally does. Not to mention it might be reworked. Not reworked, extended. The TV deal can be extended to say 2018 but, it also reworks the numbers higher for 2012. The NFL has an interest to make as much money as possible, and can throw things in there that we don't consider, or adding more of newly added things. Who would've though of changing games in the middle of the season so they are on primetime or what not. You can bet whatever the next TV deal is, there will be aspects that are new, that will be used as leverage to get the NFL more money. Maybe it's more web rights, whatever.
Finally again though, we aren't spending the money on unknowns. We have the gift of already having these guys, knowing what they can and will do on our team. We don't have to worry about a denver rb trying to run in our system, to give an example. It's unusual, I agree, but we have it, we're already here. No need to go backwards, because it's unorthodox. In fact imo, we are set up so we don't need to take any wr's for the next few years in our draft. We can almost completely eliminate that position from being drafted, unless someone really catches our eye in a late round, or is a kr/pr, or whatever. We can use those picks normally spent on wr's over a few year stretch, to take players at those other positions. The opportunity is there. We know what areas we need to focus on, and what we don't have to. WR is set with 3 studs, and doucet who I think could very well become a stud wr. Plenty of opportunity to fill other positions in coming years.
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First it will not go up dramatically soon as I have already pointed out.
Second all of those so called steal contracts will become players whining about wanting more money. It is a cycle. And you already stated a good example. Boldin signs a deal and wants a new one 2 years later becuase of the new CBA. Whats to stop Boldin from doing it again when the CBA goes up dramatically again(which it wont). The guy is already whining about wanting to get his 3rd different contract in only his 6th year. The guy doesnt have Drew as his agent for nothing and would want more of that CBA pie when it supposedly goes up dramatically again. He has a history of it so whats to stop him from working on whining for his 4th new contract a few years from now?
It is a cycle. One that cannot be avoided. Good teams let good players go. They survive and move on. Or they don't. Because as much as I love my cardinals, even if they turn it around now, I know in my lifetime, and even in the coming decade, there will be down years.
Again I'm thinking of the contracts and CBA and TV rights in a larger context. I am thinking about 2015 already, I am thinking about the next TV rights. The CBA when the percentage is selected, will be applied to the TV right of the next television package. So a CBA deal signed in 2010, won't limit and create a windfall for teams getting higher revenues from a 2011 or 2012 signed TV deal. We're going to see two jumps. One with the new CBA, and one when the new TV contract sets in. But overall i'm looking at it as one big continual jump done during one set of contracts our guys sign. Between 2009 and 2015 the changes are going to be dramatic. At this point, a 10 percent increase in the cap, would be more than a 10 million increase to the cap. Small percentage increases are bring about a huge increase in cap. The cap isn't growing by 1-2 million a year, it's starting to grow at 10 million a year. So a 7 year contract will be more easily fit in, even with increases in salary, over that span. But that said, it looks like we're going for more even salaries, so it'll be even easier to fit in.
True, boldin did this. But also dansby and dockett and wilson want restructures, but they all still played and didn't do what even Boldin did. Meaning we're far more sensitive to this right now, that what is reality year in and year out. Even if a guy does it once, odds are not twice. Even if they are a head case, you can only sign so many deals as a top flight guy. After these next deals are up, not many of our guys will be young enough to command a 7 year contract. 3-4 years sounds about right for a long term contract, if they are still quality players ofc.
Again though, there is no pressing need to make a change, so why press and make a change. There's no need to. Again if someone comes out and says we can sign Adrian Peterson next year, and drop Q, that's more feasible. But that ain't gonna happen. Since FA, there have been more FA years, then FA prizes. If AP was to be a FA in 2010 even, there would be one helluva bidding war, in which it would take Fitz and Q's contract to cover peterson's agent's demands. We are talking about a league that'll pay 70-80 million for cb's that aren't top flight, but merely good. I'll resign Q over having to bid on guys like that any day.
2008 $116 million 2003 $75 million
2007 $109 million 2002 $71 million
2006 $102 million 2001 $67.5 million
2005 $85.5 million 2000 $62.2 million
2004 $80.5 million 1999 $58.4 million
If one notices, we've gone from 58 million in 1999 to 116 million in 2008. Nine years difference, double the salary cap. That's an 11 percent increase per year. Now the factors that contribute to that are two fold. CBA, and TV rights, both of which are coming up again.
By this measure in 2017, we should have a 232 million dollar salary cap. Will we get there, probably not, but it is entirely possible. Using the past as a guide, a conservative figure for 2017 would be a 200 million cap. So when I say 150-170 million towards the end of his contract, I am being conservative.
So no when I think of either ripping up his contract, or adding years to it, I don't think Q making 8-10 million a year depending on the year, will put us in a really bad position. Again I think it would be a steal.
It'll be a pretty big piece of the pie this year, but by the end of the contract, it won't be. If Q whines again, then we can make him play out that contract, and deal with it. Either way, when talking about probably in the middle to latter half of the next decade, I think we should put those potential situations off for a few years. To use an example. Is it important that Social Security is solvent to 2080 or is 2040 just fine for a few years? If you catch my drift.
Finally though, whether Q or another player at another position, if they're going to complain about the new CBA and their contract, then they will. It's not a reason to not sign him now, because you can say the case for anybody at any position that you sign. I doubt Q would, and if he did, again I already know he'll come and play, at least for a year.
Either way though, I'm just putting this out there, I know I can't sway everyone and possibly anyone. This is just how I see it. I see this as a great opportunity to leapfrog other teams that don't have the talent to take advantage of the increase in salary cap. (teams that have few worthy of signing long term)