At the current pace ~44 wins is going to qualify for the 8th seed. For the Lakers to hit that mark they need to go 20-10 the rest of the way, and obviously two of the Houston, Utah, Portand group to play worse than ~16-14.
A 2-5 run over these next 7 would bury them. But I think 3-4 or 4-3 is a likely result. But Dwight's shoulder is a ticking time bomb. One more tweek on that thing, especially if they're still struggling, and I think he will really consider shutting it down.
One more note, Dallas has an extremely favorable stretch of games coming up. If they avoid the temptation of blowing up their team they could very well pass the Lakers in the standings which I think would be a big demoralizer for LA.