Draft roundup: All about Al
Chad Ford
NBA scouts are out in full force scouting the college and international game. Who's on the rise and who's falling? Each week we update the Top 100 and highlight the best and worst from the week.
High riser: Every year, in my preseason rankings, there's at least one guy for whom I stick out my neck.
This year I had three such guys in the top 10: Rajon Rondo, LaMarcus Aldridge and Al Horford.
I've already chronicled how well Rondo and Aldridge are playing in previous blogs ... so it's time to check on the third guy, Horford.
Of the three, Horford was the biggest stretch coming into the season. I ranked him as the ninth-best prospect in the draft, despite his modest averages of 5.6 ppg and 6.5 rpg during his freshman season at Florida. It was an upside projection based on his talent, his size and his play late in his freshman season.
This year, Horford, who showed up on campus with an extra 15 pounds of muscle, has taken his game to another level. He's averaging 12.7 ppg and 7.1 rpg on 69 percent shooting -- in just 24 minutes per game -- and he keeps getting better as the season goes on. His 20-point, 11-rebound game against Jacksonville last week was a season high and had scouts quickly moving him up their draft boards.
Horford has the tools to be a great NBA player. He is long and athletic, can jump out of the gym and has a great NBA body. He's got excellent toughness and doesn't shy away from banging in the paint. His per-minute numbers in the scoring, rebounding and shot-blocking department have scouts drooling.
While it's always shaky to compare college players with current NBA stars, a growing number of scouts see comparisons between his game and Amare Stoudemire's. Like Stoudemire's when he came into the league, Horford's offensive game is still a little raw (he gets most of his points off dunks), but it seems to be quickly developing. Horford's aggression and athleticism should allow him to excel, especially if he can land with an uptempo team.
He's moved up to No. 7 on our current draft board, but has the potential to leapfrog Rondo, Ronnie Brewer, Adam Morrison and Andrea Bargnani if he continues to improve as the season progresses. It's early, but scouts like what they see.
Sleeper: Scouts are beginning to make some noise about Wyoming big man Justin Williams -- a lanky, athletic, 6-10 center who is averaging a startling 6.3 blocks per game. That's not a misprint, folks. He's also averaging 11.8 ppg and 11.8 rpg for the Cowboys and is drawing some comparisons to Theo Ratliff from NBA scouts. While Williams is still a big project offensively and will need to add some muscle to play the five in the pros, scouts are watching this senior closely.
College kids: Kentucky's Rajon Rondo had his best game of the season last weekend, dropping 25 points and 7 assists on the No. 4 team in the country, Louisville.
While the preseason knock about his 3-point and free throw shooting is still an issue (though he's upped his shooting to 35 percent this season from beyond the arc) scouts are convinced that Rondo does enough other things to justify his lofty position as a potential top-five pick and our top-rated point guard in the draft. His quickness, his ability to get to the basket at will, his defensive toughness and his leadership skills make him an excellent pro prospect -- especially for a bad team, such as Atlanta, that wants to run.
Memphis forward Rodney Carney is another high riser after a dominant performance against Louisiana Tech on Tuesday. Carney scored 37 points, grabbed 10 rebounds and hit five 3s for the Tigers.
Carney is one of the most athletic players in the draft, but scouts have always worried a bit about his body and his inconsistency. In previous years, he's tended to disappear in big games. That hasn't been nearly as big an issue this season (despite a few struggles against Duke and Cincinnati).
What's really improved his stock is his improved 3-point shooting. He's shooting 41 percent from long distance this season and averaging three 3-pointers per game.
We'd be remiss if we didn't mention Corey Brewer's amazing triple double against Jacksonville. Brewer had 15 points, 10 rebounds and 13 assists for Florida in a win.
He's averaging 4.8 assists for the season, leading credence to the claims of a number of scouts that he could be a point forward in the pros.
Still, to get himself into the lottery, Brewer's going to have to shoot the 3 more consistently (he's shooting just 28 percent from 3-point range this season after hitting a 44 percent clip as a freshman) and cut down on the turnovers. Scouts are also wringing their hands a little bit about his body ... but overall he still projects as a top 20 prospect.
After a shaky start to the season, Oklahoma's Taj Gray has come alive of late, averaging 23.2 ppg and 8.5 rpg over his last three games. Scouts like Gray's size, athleticism and ability to play with his back to the basket. But he's going to have to consistently put up numbers like this to work himself back into the mid-first round, where his stock was last season.
Not sure why NBA scouts are still sleeping on LaSalle's Steven Smith.
He was one of the NCAA's leading scorers last season, looked impressive in the Chicago pre-draft camp last June (he was the camp's second-leading scorer) and is off to a red-hot start, averaging 21.8 ppg and 10.1 rpg for the season. After his 41-point, 11-rebound performance against Central Connecticut last week, maybe they should look again.
Then again, Smith's 13-point performance against Villanova on Thursday left some scouts questioning whether he can dominate against top competition. Still, I'm surprised more scouts don't have him listed as a potential first-rounder. I keep hearing he's a tweener and a little undersized, but he measured a legit 6-9 in shoes in Chicago, with a long wingspan and a decent 34-inch vertical leap.
International men of mystery: A number of NBA scouts who've traveled to Spain over the past few weeks have come away disappointed at the progress of Brazilian big man Tiago Splitter.
Splitter looked like he was a serious contender to be the breakout Euro of the year, but he's actually seen his minutes fall a bit this year for TAU Cermaica.
With big men like Luis Scola, Peja Drobnjak and Kornel David on the roster, Splitter is still stuck in a supporting role, and his Euroleague numbers (8.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg) haven't been anything to get excited about. Combine that with serious questions about whether an NBA team will be able to buy him out of his contract with TAU (there's currently no NBA buyout provision in his contract) and his stock has taken a hit in recent weeks.
Israeli combo guard Yotam Halperin continues to gain supporters in NBA circles with his stellar play for Olimpija Ljubljana this season. The former Macabbi Tel Aviv player is averaging 14.4 ppg and 4.4 apg in the Euroleague this season and has had several big Euroleague games this year. While no one is projecting that he's a first-rounder (because of his defense and questions about whether he can play the point in the pros), he's got a great chance of going in the second round. He could be another Jon Barry, according to scouts.
He's fallen ... can he get up? Gonzaga's Adam Morrison created quite a stir a few weeks ago when he told Washington's Brandon Roy, "Hey, Roy, I'm going to see you in June," referring to the NBA Draft. Originally, everyone took it to mean that Morrison, a junior, would be declaring for the draft. However, Morrison claims that he meant it as a compliment to Roy "because he'll be in the NBA draft."
Will he? Roy came to Washington with a lot of hype, and he's got a great combination of athleticism, defensive intensity and a feel for the game. However, scouts don't believe he's done enough to improve his game to warrant a first-round draft selection.
While it's clear that Roy can score, scouts have serious questions about his perimeter game. Ironically, Roy showed off more of his weaknesses than strengths in that Washington-Gonzaga game. Roy went 3-for-9 from the field in that game and had five turnovers.
While it's not impossible for Roy to sneak his way into the first round based on his potential and his strengths, right now he looks like the type of player who's destined to be a second-round pick.
Chad Ford
NBA scouts are out in full force scouting the college and international game. Who's on the rise and who's falling? Each week we update the Top 100 and highlight the best and worst from the week.
High riser: Every year, in my preseason rankings, there's at least one guy for whom I stick out my neck.
This year I had three such guys in the top 10: Rajon Rondo, LaMarcus Aldridge and Al Horford.
I've already chronicled how well Rondo and Aldridge are playing in previous blogs ... so it's time to check on the third guy, Horford.
Of the three, Horford was the biggest stretch coming into the season. I ranked him as the ninth-best prospect in the draft, despite his modest averages of 5.6 ppg and 6.5 rpg during his freshman season at Florida. It was an upside projection based on his talent, his size and his play late in his freshman season.
This year, Horford, who showed up on campus with an extra 15 pounds of muscle, has taken his game to another level. He's averaging 12.7 ppg and 7.1 rpg on 69 percent shooting -- in just 24 minutes per game -- and he keeps getting better as the season goes on. His 20-point, 11-rebound game against Jacksonville last week was a season high and had scouts quickly moving him up their draft boards.
Horford has the tools to be a great NBA player. He is long and athletic, can jump out of the gym and has a great NBA body. He's got excellent toughness and doesn't shy away from banging in the paint. His per-minute numbers in the scoring, rebounding and shot-blocking department have scouts drooling.
While it's always shaky to compare college players with current NBA stars, a growing number of scouts see comparisons between his game and Amare Stoudemire's. Like Stoudemire's when he came into the league, Horford's offensive game is still a little raw (he gets most of his points off dunks), but it seems to be quickly developing. Horford's aggression and athleticism should allow him to excel, especially if he can land with an uptempo team.
He's moved up to No. 7 on our current draft board, but has the potential to leapfrog Rondo, Ronnie Brewer, Adam Morrison and Andrea Bargnani if he continues to improve as the season progresses. It's early, but scouts like what they see.
Sleeper: Scouts are beginning to make some noise about Wyoming big man Justin Williams -- a lanky, athletic, 6-10 center who is averaging a startling 6.3 blocks per game. That's not a misprint, folks. He's also averaging 11.8 ppg and 11.8 rpg for the Cowboys and is drawing some comparisons to Theo Ratliff from NBA scouts. While Williams is still a big project offensively and will need to add some muscle to play the five in the pros, scouts are watching this senior closely.
College kids: Kentucky's Rajon Rondo had his best game of the season last weekend, dropping 25 points and 7 assists on the No. 4 team in the country, Louisville.
While the preseason knock about his 3-point and free throw shooting is still an issue (though he's upped his shooting to 35 percent this season from beyond the arc) scouts are convinced that Rondo does enough other things to justify his lofty position as a potential top-five pick and our top-rated point guard in the draft. His quickness, his ability to get to the basket at will, his defensive toughness and his leadership skills make him an excellent pro prospect -- especially for a bad team, such as Atlanta, that wants to run.
Memphis forward Rodney Carney is another high riser after a dominant performance against Louisiana Tech on Tuesday. Carney scored 37 points, grabbed 10 rebounds and hit five 3s for the Tigers.
Carney is one of the most athletic players in the draft, but scouts have always worried a bit about his body and his inconsistency. In previous years, he's tended to disappear in big games. That hasn't been nearly as big an issue this season (despite a few struggles against Duke and Cincinnati).
What's really improved his stock is his improved 3-point shooting. He's shooting 41 percent from long distance this season and averaging three 3-pointers per game.
We'd be remiss if we didn't mention Corey Brewer's amazing triple double against Jacksonville. Brewer had 15 points, 10 rebounds and 13 assists for Florida in a win.
He's averaging 4.8 assists for the season, leading credence to the claims of a number of scouts that he could be a point forward in the pros.
Still, to get himself into the lottery, Brewer's going to have to shoot the 3 more consistently (he's shooting just 28 percent from 3-point range this season after hitting a 44 percent clip as a freshman) and cut down on the turnovers. Scouts are also wringing their hands a little bit about his body ... but overall he still projects as a top 20 prospect.
After a shaky start to the season, Oklahoma's Taj Gray has come alive of late, averaging 23.2 ppg and 8.5 rpg over his last three games. Scouts like Gray's size, athleticism and ability to play with his back to the basket. But he's going to have to consistently put up numbers like this to work himself back into the mid-first round, where his stock was last season.
Not sure why NBA scouts are still sleeping on LaSalle's Steven Smith.
He was one of the NCAA's leading scorers last season, looked impressive in the Chicago pre-draft camp last June (he was the camp's second-leading scorer) and is off to a red-hot start, averaging 21.8 ppg and 10.1 rpg for the season. After his 41-point, 11-rebound performance against Central Connecticut last week, maybe they should look again.
Then again, Smith's 13-point performance against Villanova on Thursday left some scouts questioning whether he can dominate against top competition. Still, I'm surprised more scouts don't have him listed as a potential first-rounder. I keep hearing he's a tweener and a little undersized, but he measured a legit 6-9 in shoes in Chicago, with a long wingspan and a decent 34-inch vertical leap.
International men of mystery: A number of NBA scouts who've traveled to Spain over the past few weeks have come away disappointed at the progress of Brazilian big man Tiago Splitter.
Splitter looked like he was a serious contender to be the breakout Euro of the year, but he's actually seen his minutes fall a bit this year for TAU Cermaica.
With big men like Luis Scola, Peja Drobnjak and Kornel David on the roster, Splitter is still stuck in a supporting role, and his Euroleague numbers (8.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg) haven't been anything to get excited about. Combine that with serious questions about whether an NBA team will be able to buy him out of his contract with TAU (there's currently no NBA buyout provision in his contract) and his stock has taken a hit in recent weeks.
Israeli combo guard Yotam Halperin continues to gain supporters in NBA circles with his stellar play for Olimpija Ljubljana this season. The former Macabbi Tel Aviv player is averaging 14.4 ppg and 4.4 apg in the Euroleague this season and has had several big Euroleague games this year. While no one is projecting that he's a first-rounder (because of his defense and questions about whether he can play the point in the pros), he's got a great chance of going in the second round. He could be another Jon Barry, according to scouts.
He's fallen ... can he get up? Gonzaga's Adam Morrison created quite a stir a few weeks ago when he told Washington's Brandon Roy, "Hey, Roy, I'm going to see you in June," referring to the NBA Draft. Originally, everyone took it to mean that Morrison, a junior, would be declaring for the draft. However, Morrison claims that he meant it as a compliment to Roy "because he'll be in the NBA draft."
Will he? Roy came to Washington with a lot of hype, and he's got a great combination of athleticism, defensive intensity and a feel for the game. However, scouts don't believe he's done enough to improve his game to warrant a first-round draft selection.
While it's clear that Roy can score, scouts have serious questions about his perimeter game. Ironically, Roy showed off more of his weaknesses than strengths in that Washington-Gonzaga game. Roy went 3-for-9 from the field in that game and had five turnovers.
While it's not impossible for Roy to sneak his way into the first round based on his potential and his strengths, right now he looks like the type of player who's destined to be a second-round pick.
