drafting a franchise player

[elindholm]

Let's approximate that "franchise players" are those who get selected to the All-NBA first team. Here are all of the first-teamers since the 1992-93 season, with their total number of career first-team selections, followed by their year and draft position (by which they are sorted):

(6) Hakeem Olajuwon (#1, 1984)
(4) David Robinson (#1, 1987)
(8) Shaquille O'Neal (#1, 1992)
(1) Chris Webber (#1, 1993)
(3) Allen Iverson (#1, 1996)
(9) Tim Duncan (#1, 1997)
(4) LeBron James (#1, 2003)
(3) Dwight Howard (#1, 2004)
total appearances by #1 picks: 38
- - - - -
(2) Gary Payton (#2, 1990)
(1) Alonzo Mourning (#2, 1992)
(5) Jason Kidd (#2, 1994)
(1) Kevin Durant (#2, 2007)
total #2 picks: 9
- - - - -
(10) Michael Jordan (#3, 1984)
(2) Anfernee Hardaway (#3, 1993)
(1) Grant Hill (#3, 1994)
total #3 picks: 13
- - - - -
(5) Charles Barkley (#5, 1984)
(3) Scottie Pippen (#5, 1987)
(4) Kevin Garnett (#5, 1995)
(2) Dwyane Wade (#5, 2003)
(1) Chris Paul (#4, 2005)
total #4-#5 picks: 15
- - - - -
(2) Tracy McGrady (#9, 1997)
(4) Dirk Nowitzki (#9, 1998)
(1) Amar'e Stoudemire (#9, 2002)
total #6-#9 picks: 7
- - - - -
(11) Karl Malone (#13, 1985)
(1) Tim Hardaway (#14, 1989)
(8) Kobe Bryant (#13, 1996)
total #10-#14 picks: 20
- - - - -
(1) Mark Price (#25, 1986)
(2) John Stockton (#16, 1984)
(1) Latrell Sprewell (#24, 1992)
(3) Steve Nash (#15, 1996)
total #15-later picks: 7

The obvious conclusion is that picking #1 is huge. About half of the #1 overall picks taken since 1992 (O'Neal) have turned out to be franchise players.

After #1, the rest of the top five look pretty even. Jordan gives the #3 pool a big boost in terms of All-NBA appearances, but overall you're looking at maybe a 1-in-6 or 1-in-7 chance of getting a franchise player at positions #2 through #5.

The dropoff after #5 is dramatic, and it suggests that the difference between the top ten and the middle of the lottery is pretty small when it comes to looking for franchise talent. The trio at #9 were all fairly unknown when they were drafted: McGrady and Stoudemire were in high school, and Nowitzki was hiding in Europe. Other than that, positions #6-#9 have struck out. In the next five, you have Malone and Bryant, each of whom has succeeded not only on talent but also on fierce long-term determination, which is pretty much impossible to evaluate by interviewing a kid for 15 minutes. And after the lottery, the chances are pretty much zip.

So: Get into the top five if you can, and otherwise don't sweat it.

 

[Yuma]

But you always have guys like Amar'e who buck the odds. We can get good players in this draft if we keep our picks. I will be amazed if Sarver keeps both first round picks since that's guaranteed money. However, that's what we need to do to get more athletic. I am already waiting to see what we will do in this draft.

 

[Chaplin]

But you always have guys like Amar'e who buck the odds. We can get good players in this draft if we keep our picks. I will be amazed if Sarver keeps both first round picks since that's guaranteed money. However, that's what we need to do to get more athletic. I am already waiting to see what we will do in this draft.

He's talking about franchise players Yuma, and you're looking at very long odds at actually getting one through the draft if you don't have AT LEAST a top 10 pick.

 

[BC867]

Let's approximate that "franchise players" are those who get selected to the All-NBA first team. Here are all of the first-teamers since the 1992-93 season...

So: Get into the top five if you can, and otherwise don't sweat it.

You have done quite a bit of work on this and it is appreciated.

But this is about only five NBA franchises each season having a franchise player.

It is conceivable that each of the league's franchises has their own franchise player, regardless of where he was drafted.

Or that some franchises may have two -- such as David Robinson/Tim Duncan or Kobe Bryant/Pau Gasol.

Or that some may, of course, not have any player worthy of the title "franchise player".

By zeroing in on the All NBA first team, it narrows it down to the best of the best. After all, there are 5 First Team selections, but there are 30 NBA franchises.

And, having one franchise player doesn't necessarily guarantee that they will wind up as one of the top five teams. Other teams with, let's say, three very good players but not one All NBA first team selection could easily beat them out.

Who springs to mind? Dwight Howard, Nowitsky, Amar'e. Team success depends upon the rest of their rosters as well.

Edit: Oops. I skimmed over your saying, "Otherwise, don't sweat it." You are absolutely right.

 

[Griffin]

(1) Kevin Durant (#1, 2007)

I know that Greg Oden's career has been very forgettable thus far, but still...

 

[sunsfan88]

We have 2 first rd picks, an expiring contract in Carter, and a 22 year old 7'0 ft center who has shown potential.

We may be able to get a top 5 pick.

 

[elindholm]

I know that Greg Oden's career has been very forgettable thus far, but still...

Oops, thanks for catching that. It's weird, because I was looking it up, not going by memory. I must have misread it.

 

[elindholm]

But this is about only five NBA franchises each season having a franchise player.

That's right. With the exception of the 2004, every league champion in the last 20+ years has had at least one player on this list. If you don't have one, you aren't a contender.

And, having one franchise player doesn't necessarily guarantee that they will wind up as one of the top five teams.

That's correct. It's what is known as a necessary but insufficient condition.

 

[slinslin]

We could have the same thread about allstar players, good players, role players etc and the result would on average always be the same : drafting higher is better.

 

[JCSunsfan]

So, how many teams have gotten a franchise player by trade or free agency as opposed to the draft? Let's look at the list and see how many of these were traded or signed as free agents (not including the ones who changed teams but were shells of their former selves and did not contribute significantly to the new team). You do not have to draft a franchise player. BTW. I am not sure why Barkley is not on this list. I thought he was first teamer with the Suns.

(8) Shaquille O'Neal (#1, 1992)
(1) Chris Webber (#1, 1993)
(3) Allen Iverson (#1, 1996)
(4) LeBron James (#1, 2003)
- - - - -
(2) Gary Payton (#2, 1990)
(1) Alonzo Mourning (#2, 1992)
(5) Jason Kidd (#2, 1994)
- - - - -- - - - -
(3) Scottie Pippen (#5, 1987)
(4) Kevin Garnett (#5, 1995)
- - - - -
(2) Tracy McGrady (#9, 1997)
(1) Amar'e Stoudemire (#9, 2002)
- - - - -
(1) Tim Hardaway (#14, 1989)
(8) Kobe Bryant (#13, 1996)
- - - - -
(3) Steve Nash (#15, 1996)

 

[slinslin]

Oh come on with the exception of maybe Mourning there should be a huge asterisk behind all those names.

When someone like Shaq is going to be FA he is not going to pick the Suns because other teams will make compete for him. You better be ther Lakers or Knicks to have a shot or already have a franchise player to recruit him.

(8) Shaquille O'Neal (#1, 1992) - rare exception and circumstances
(1) Chris Webber (#1, 1993) Made 1 allstar game before he got to Sacramento, was not a franchise player when traded and argueable if he ever was except for his 3 best seasons in Sacramento
(3) Allen Iverson (#1, 1996) Was 31 years old when he first changed teams, and was not a franchise player anymore
(4) LeBron James (#1, 2003) - rare exception and circumstances
- - - - -
(2) Gary Payton (#2, 1990) was 33 years old when he first switched team, not a franchise player
(1) Alonzo Mourning (#2, 1992) I might give you this one but there are some circumstances with Larry Johnson that made it possible and Charlotte opted to move Mourning and not Johnson
(5) Jason Kidd (#2, 1994) was either broken down or traded for a player who was considered equal value
- - - - -- - - - -
(3) Scottie Pippen (#5, 1987) was 33 years old when he first switched teams, not a franchise player
(4) Kevin Garnett (#5, 1995) was 31 years old when he first switched teams
- - - - -
(2) Tracy McGrady (#9, 1997) was a raw prospect the first time he got signed for that huge contract and a broken down player the 2nd time
(1) Amar'e Stoudemire (#9, 2002) was only let go because our management is afraid of financial risks and injury concerns
- - - - -
(1) Tim Hardaway (#14, 1989) - averaged 15/7 when traded , was an allstar just 5 times, 2 times in 7 years after the trade probably one of the worst first team NBA players ever
(8) Kobe Bryant (#13, 1996) - was a pre-arranged deal that he was traded to the Lakers right after being drafted
- - - - -
(3) Steve Nash (#15, 1996) - first time he was a scrub basically, second time he was a borderline allstar and 30 years old. He never changed teams after being a NBA first teamer

If you look at the NBA first teamers with the most rewards you will notice that they don't change teams until they are broken down.

Malone - Not until he was old and broken
Jordan - Not until he was old and broken
Duncan - Never changed teams
Shaq - Huge Exception
Kobe - Never changed teams
Olajuwon - Not until he was old and broken

 

[JCSunsfan]

None of these players were franchise players when they were traded.

Oh come on, with the exception of Amare, Garnett, LBJ, Shaq none of these guys were franchise players when they were traded.

And when they were traded when they were really good like Jason Kidd they were traded for what was perceived as equal value.

Look at the nba today, how many of the dominant teams' "big three" players were aquired by trade or free agency.

LA--all three
Boston--two of three
Miami--two of three
San Antonio--All three were SA draft picks but Tony Parker was the 28th pick and Ginobili was a second rounder.
Orlando--Just Howard, not sure who else qualifies as the "big three" with them.

I am not trying to cut this list short, I just am not sure what other teams are even contenders this year.

Yes, it is good to draft earlier than later, but the perennial powers in the league have not built dynasties on their own early picks.

 

[slinslin]

Btw this list is very faulty.

Where is Grant Hill? Sure made the first team or Charles Barkley made it numerous times. Those are 2 exceptions, happens maybe every 5 years or so that a player of that caliber changes teams through free agency.

 

[slinslin]

Look at the nba today, how many of the dominant teams' "big three" players were aquired by trade or free agency.

LA--all three
Boston--two of three
Miami--two of three
San Antonio--All three were SA draft picks but Tony Parker was the 28th pick and Ginobili was a second rounder.
Orlando--Just Howard, not sure who else qualifies as the "big three" with them.

I am not trying to cut this list short, I just am not sure what other teams are even contenders this year.

Yes, it is good to draft earlier than later, but the perennial powers in the league have not built dynasties on their own early picks.

Oh come on..

LA is not a big 3 it is Kobe as the franchise player who they always had and was basically drafted by them, how you can bring up LA to support your point I don't get. They got a gift in the Gasol trade that still nobody understands.

Besides we are not the Lakers who are likely in the top 3 wishlist of every FA anyway.

Miami also only could acquire those players because of incredible circumstances and absolutely purposedly sucking a couple of years WHILE they already had their own franchise player DRAFTED who lead them to a championship before.

Boston always had their franchise player in Paul Pierce and then surrounded him late with old allstar players and draft picks, the allstar players which they also acquired for draft picks they got through sucking.

San Antonio drafted all their key players, Duncan and Robinson at #1 Sean Elliott, Manu, Parker..

Orlando also drafted their franchise player Shaq, Penny and Howard. They struck gold giving McGrady a contract everyone thought was immensly overpaid and they got no reward from signing Grant Hill who was considered a franchise player and one of the few exceptions.

 

[slinslin]

If you look at the very good teams:

San Antonio - Drafted Duncan, Manu, Parker, Blair
Oklahoma - Drafted Durant, Westbrook, Green, Harden etc
Portland - Drafted Oden, Roy, Batum, Aldridge
Utah - Drafted Williams, Kirilenko
New Orleans - Drafted Paul, West
LA Lakers - Drafted Kobe basically and are the #1 destination for FAs
Chicago - Drafted Rose, Noah
Orlando - Drafted Howard, Nelson
Boston - Drafted Pierce, Perkins, Rondo and traded draft picks for Allen and Garnett
Dallas - Drafted Dirk
Denver - Drafted Melo, Nene
Atlanta - Drafted Smith, Horford, Williams
Miami - Drafted Wade , won a championship, purposedly sucked some years to strip their entire roster so they got a #1 pick in the meantime that did not turn out and enough capspace to add Lebron and Bosh under very special circumstances

There is literally NOT EVEN ONE good team in the NBA right now that is not built around their draft picks, not even a single good team.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Btw this list is very faulty.

Where is Grant Hill? Sure made the first team or Charles Barkley made it numerous times. Those are 2 exceptions, happens maybe every 5 years or so that a player of that caliber changes teams through free agency.

I took Hill off because he did not make a franchise player type impact on his new team. I don't know why Barkley is not on it. I based it upon Elindholm's list at the beginning of this thread and he is usually factually correct.

It seems to me that franchise players change teams about once a year on average. Some years there are none, some years there are more.

I think I might want to include more than just all-nba first teamers as "franchise players." To me, the Tom Chambers signing was that. At the time, Danny Manning was too (but an injury changed it).

My point is that if we pin all our hopes on the draft, we will become the Clippers. They have great picks every year. They will be good for a while now, until other teams cherry pick their roster and they sink back to futility.

 

[slinslin]

And how are we ever going to get assets to potentially trade for such a player if you are correct?

Never unless we blindly give up a bunch of future unprotected picks again.

From the 10 or so good teams in the NBA right now only Miami (Lebron, Bosh) and Lakers (Gasol) have a really good player on the roster that they didn't draft. Unless you consider Boozer or Joe Johnson who are just the 3rd best players on their teams respectively.

We did not even conserve cap space when we blindly signed Frye, Warrick and Childress plus acquiring Hedo to desperately stay competitive.

 

[elindholm]

We could have the same thread about allstar players, good players, role players etc and the result would on average always be the same : drafting higher is better.

You missed the point. Drafting #1 is better. Then it drops off immediately and is pretty flat through the top 5. Then there's no measurable difference, in terms of getting an All-NBA player, in the range from #6 to #15.

You want the Suns to dump Nash so that they might be able to move a few spots up in the draft, in search of that franchise-altering talent. I'm saying that that's a faulty strategy.

 

[elindholm]

I am not sure why Barkley is not on this list. I thought he was first teamer with the Suns.

You are right; for some reason I left off players who were unique to the 1992-93 first team. Those are are Barkley (5 career first-team selections) and Mark Price (1). I'll try to update it later today. Thanks for catching the mistake.

 

[JCSunsfan]

And how are we ever going to get assets to potentially trade for such a player if you are correct?

Never unless we blindly give up a bunch of future unprotected picks again.

From the 10 or so good teams in the NBA right now only Miami (Lebron, Bosh) and Lakers (Gasol) have a really good player on the roster that they didn't draft. Unless you consider Boozer or Joe Johnson who are just the 3rd best players on their teams respectively.
.

Of course Joe Johnson and Boozer would count. So would Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Lamar Odom. I would even add Tyson Chandler, and Jason Kidd, but they probably don't meet your standard definition of a really good player.

 

[JCSunsfan]

You missed the point. Drafting #1 is better. Then it drops off immediately and is pretty flat through the top 5. Then there's no measurable difference, in terms of getting an All-NBA player, in the range from #6 to #15.

You want the Suns to dump Nash so that they might be able to move a few spots up in the draft, in search of that franchise-altering talent. I'm saying that that's a faulty strategy.

I agree. And with the lottery the way it is, having the worst record is far from a slam dunk chance at getting the first pick. The only way to give yourself a chance that way is to be really bad for 5 years or so.

 

[elindholm]

f you look at the very good teams:

San Antonio - Drafted Duncan, Manu, Parker, Blair
Oklahoma - Drafted Durant, Westbrook, Green, Harden etc
Portland - Drafted Oden, Roy, Batum, Aldridge
Utah - Drafted Williams, Kirilenko
New Orleans - Drafted Paul, West
LA Lakers - Drafted Kobe basically and are the #1 destination for FAs
Chicago - Drafted Rose, Noah
Orlando - Drafted Howard, Nelson
Boston - Drafted Pierce, Perkins, Rondo and traded draft picks for Allen and Garnett
Dallas - Drafted Dirk
Denver - Drafted Melo, Nene
Atlanta - Drafted Smith, Horford, Williams
Miami - Drafted Wade , won a championship...

I intended this discussion to be in the context of those who are obsessed with the Suns building toward a championship, specifically. Most of the teams on your list above aren't relevant.

The Blazers, Jazz, Hornets, Bulls, Nuggets, and Hawks have no chance of winning a title without adding a player who is at least as good as the best player currently on their rosters. They have not built a championship contender through the draft.

The Lakers and Heat, as you acknowledge, have relied heavily on free agency.

The Mavericks have tried shuffling the pieces around Nowitzki so many times that I don't think you can say they have built through the draft. They drafted Nowitzki and have relied on every other resource since then. The Magic are in the same situation with Howard.

That leaves only three teams who have built contenders primarily through draft picks: the Spurs, Thunder, and Celtics. The Celtics are a unique case because they happened to have a surplus of young assets when two veteran stars came on the market at the same time.

So basically it's the Spurs and the Thunder, each of which had the fortune to draft one of the transcendent stars of their generation. Duncan was an obvious #1 overall pick, and Durant would have been one also had the Blazers not gotten befuddled by the Oden apologists and their own history with Bowie/Jordan.

My point is reinforced: Drafting #1 overall is huge, and otherwise it really isn't that big a factor.

 

[slinslin]

I never said I want them to dump Nash, but I want them to tank this season and reward themselves with a high pick instead of picking at #14 or #15.

I also want them to acquire at LEAST ONE young player that they could develop but they didn't even have time to give Earl Clark minutes to see what he could do in a game consitently before discarding him.

Also the worse you are the higher your chance is top move in the top 3 on lottery day.

 

[Chaplin]

I never said I want them to dump Nash, but I want them to tank this season and reward themselves with a high pick instead of picking at #14 or #15.

I also want them to acquire at LEAST ONE young player that they could develop but they didn't even have time to give Earl Clark minutes to see what he could do in a game consitently before discarding him.

Also the worse you are the higher your chance is top move in the top 3 on lottery day.

Give me a break. You're still going on about Earl Clark? The guy was NOT GOOD. We tried giving him some consistent minutes, he couldn't handle it. It wasn't that he just wasn't a good player, he literally couldn't handle it.

And tanking rarely works. It's plainly obvious that the coaches and the front office don't want to do it. What makes you think the players would happily go along with that?

 

[slinslin]

Give me a break. You're still going on about Earl Clark? The guy was NOT GOOD. We tried giving him some consistent minutes, he couldn't handle it. It wasn't that he just wasn't a good player, he literally couldn't handle it.

And tanking rarely works. It's plainly obvious that the coaches and the front office don't want to do it. What makes you think the players would happily go along with that?

Funny how it worked for Cleveland and San Antonio who we always take as our role model right?

And when did we ever give Earl Clark consistent minutes. He played 10 minutes one game than didnt play the next 10 games how is that consistent.

Earl Clark right now is in the rotation on a better team than us.

The last 3 games he always played 15-21 minutes and put up 10/3, 8/6 and 10/7.

Seriously man, how can you say we tried to give him consistent minutes? In over a season Earl Clark only got 10 or more minutes ONE TIME as a rookie in back to back games (18 and 13) and early this season he had a streak of 3 games (13/15/10) over all we played him more than 10 minutes just 15 times, more than 20 minutes 2 times and one was his very first NBA game and more than 21 minutes NEVER.

He was our only young player, a lottery pick and we never gave him minutes that is why I keep going on about him. That is what SUCKS about this team even if we wanted to tank we could not do it because we have not even one prospect that we could develop with playing time.