Early Predictions: Top 10 Picks

[Chopper0080]

8 of the top 15 sack leaders last year were top 15 picks. That's a pretty high percentage.

Tamba Hali was the 20th overall pick. For every Connor Barwin there 2-3 DeMarcus Ware's. And, let's face it, Justin Houston dropped because of drug issues, not talent issues.

Elvis Dumerville and, to a lesser extent, Connor Barwin are nice success stories but are much more the exception than the rule. Barwin has been very sporadic in his sack production. Only 2 of his 6 years has he had more than 5 sacks.

Justin Houston...post first round pick
JJ Watt...not a conversion player
Elvis Dumervil...9 year vet
Connor Barwin...2nd round pick, second team, two years over 5 sacks
Mario Williams...not a conversion player
Ryan Kerrigan...#16 pick, 1 season in 4 of over 8.5 sacks.
Von Miller...Has had drug issues, but the best example
Jason Pierre Paul...not a conversion player
Everson Griffen...not a conversion player
Cameron Wake...canadian football league player
Paul Kruger...2nd round pick
Terrell Suggs...12 year vet
Robert Quinn...not a conversion player
Marcell Dareus...not a conversion player
Junior Galette...4th round pick
Jerry Hughes...In a 3-4 defense, he had 5 sacks in 3 years
Clay Matthews...productive career, but moving to ILB (also late first rounder)
Demarcus Ware...10 year vet
Willie Young...not a conversion player

That is every NFL guy, 10 sacks and over. Not great for top 3-4 conversion players. Matthews and Miller are the only 3-4 guys drafted in recent history, and only Miller was a top 10 pick.

 

[Chopper0080]

First round, edge rush busts... (Guys drafted and playing OLB in 3-4)

2014
1-Jadeveon Clowney
5-Khalil Mack
23-Dee Ford
26-Marcus Smith

2013
3-Dion Jordan
6-Barkevious Mingo
17-Jarvis Jones
24-Bjorn Werner

2012
16-Quinton Coples
18-Melvin Ingram
26-Whitney Mercilus
28-Nick Perry

2011
2-Von Miller
7-Aldon Smith
16-Ryan Kerrigan

2010
0

There is your recent history for first round 3-4 OLBs. It is not glowing with production. Now my point is not to avoid 3-4 OLBs in round 1, it is that 3-4 OLBs in round 1 come with a TON of risk, and giving up multiple picks for one is a receipe for failure. Now, if we are trading up from 24 to 18, maybe the cost isn't very high. But to try and trade from 24 into the the top 15 is silly.

 

[CFLredzoned]

First round, edge rush busts... (Guys drafted and playing OLB in 3-4)

2014
1-Jadeveon Clowney
5-Khalil Mack
23-Dee Ford
26-Marcus Smith

2013
3-Dion Jordan
6-Barkevious Mingo
17-Jarvis Jones
24-Bjorn Werner

2012
16-Quinton Coples
18-Melvin Ingram
26-Whitney Mercilus
28-Nick Perry

2011
2-Von Miller
7-Aldon Smith
16-Ryan Kerrigan

2010
0

There is your recent history for first round 3-4 OLBs. It is not glowing with production. Now my point is not to avoid 3-4 OLBs in round 1, it is that 3-4 OLBs in round 1 come with a TON of risk, and giving up multiple picks for one is a receipe for failure. Now, if we are trading up from 24 to 18, maybe the cost isn't very high. But to try and trade from 24 into the the top 15 is silly.

That Dion Jordan pick had to sting. I remember them making a huge splash trading up to get him.

 

[MadCardDisease]

That Dion Jordan pick had to sting. I remember them making a huge splash trading up to get him.

The Dolphins were destined to fail when they drafted Dion Jordan. He is a 3-4 OLB not a 4-3 DE which is how they have tried to use him.

 

[Chopper0080]

The Dolphins were destined to fail when they drafted Dion Jordan. He is a 3-4 OLB not a 4-3 DE which is how they have tried to use him.

Oh...that is right. He shouldn't be on that list then.

 

[Chopper0080]

Also, consider that Okafor's 8 sacks in 13 games this year put him 2 behind Mathews, Ware, and Hughes in less games. Also, 2.5 behind Robert Quinn (3 less games) and 3 behind Terrell Suggs.

Also, Okafor had 2 MORE sacks than Tamba Hali in 2014. Why trade up when you can get a guy in the 4th round? (lol)

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Source?
He was about 235 during his senior season

Did you watch the combine? It was pretty well reported that he played between 210 and 220. That's why it was such a surprise to everyone that he showed up at 248 and performed at a high level.

 

[juza76]

Did you watch the combine? It was pretty well reported that he played between 210 and 220. That's why it was such a surprise to everyone that he showed up at 248 and performed at a high level.

this a photo before the start of 2014 season

You must be registered for see images attach

210 lb??

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

this a photo before the start of 2014 season

You must be registered for see images attach

210 lb??

??????????? That proves nothing.

I'll go with all the reports that he was undersized and that I know someone who scouted him in person and, when I asked about Beasley, his first response was that he's small for the position and size is a concern.

I'm not knocking Beasley but those have been legitimate concerns that he has, for the time being, alleviated by showing up at the combine at 246 and performing well. My concern is, can he carry that weight long term or did he just "blow up" for the combine?