Eli Manning is now #1 on Mel Kiper's top 25 draft board.

[AZCB34]

Originally posted by Mike Rogers
Thats exactly what I am saying. QB'S seemed to come just as good in the later rounds as they do in the early rounds.

Let's take a look:

AFC East
BUF - Bledsoe (1)
MIA - Fiedler (UFA)
NE - Brady (6)
NYJ - Pennington (1)

AFC North
BAL - Boller (1)
CIN - Kitna (UFA)
CLE - Couch (1)
PIT - Maddox (1)

AFC South
JAX - Brunell (5)
HOU - Carr (1)
IND - Manning (1)
TEN - McNair (1)

AFC West
DEN - Plummer (2)
KC - Green (8th)
OAK - Gannon (4)
SD - Brees (2)


NFC East
NYG - Collins (1)
PHI - McNabb (1)
WAS - Ramsey (1)
DAL - Carter (2)

NFC North
GB - Favre (2)
CHI - Stewart (2)
MIN - Culpepper (1)
DET - Harrington (1)

NFC South
ATL - Vick (1)
CAR - Delhomme (UFA)
TB - Johnson (9)
NO - Brooks (4)

NFC West
AZ - Blake (6)
SF - Garcia (UFA)
STL - Bulger (6)
SEA - Hasselbeck (6)

According to this list ( i know not all these guys are starting today but all were but Vick I think) there were:

14 1st rounders
5 2nd rounders
2 4th rounders
1 5th rounder
4 6th rounders
1 8th rounder
1 9th rounder
4 Undrafted Free Agents

Now we can debate the quality of each QB but of all the starters listed, well over 50% were day one guys so IMO the starting quality isn't available after day 1 in general and all that Day 1 starting material was all had in rounds 1 and 2.

Just something to chew on. All the round numbers were pulled from the NFLPA site.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Originally posted by AZCB34
Let's take a look:

AFC East
BUF - Bledsoe (1)
MIA - Fiedler (UFA)
NE - Brady (6)
NYJ - Pennington (1)

AFC North
BAL - Boller (1)
CIN - Kitna (UFA)
CLE - Couch (1)
PIT - Maddox (1)

AFC South
JAX - Brunell (5)
HOU - Carr (1)
IND - Manning (1)
TEN - McNair (1)

AFC West
DEN - Plummer (2)
KC - Green (8th)
OAK - Gannon (4)
SD - Brees (2)


NFC East
NYG - Collins (1)
PHI - McNabb (1)
WAS - Ramsey (1)
DAL - Carter (2)

NFC North
GB - Favre (2)
CHI - Stewart (2)
MIN - Culpepper (1)
DET - Harrington (1)

NFC South
ATL - Vick (1)
CAR - Delhomme (UFA)
TB - Johnson (9)
NO - Brooks (4)

NFC West
AZ - Blake (6)
SF - Garcia (UFA)
STL - Bulger (6)
SEA - Hasselbeck (6)

According to this list ( i know not all these guys are starting today but all were but Vick I think) there were:

14 1st rounders
5 2nd rounders
2 4th rounders
1 5th rounder
4 6th rounders
1 8th rounder
1 9th rounder
4 Undrafted Free Agents

Now we can debate the quality of each QB but of all the starters listed, well over 50% were day one guys so IMO the starting quality isn't available after day 1 in general and all that Day 1 starting material was all had in rounds 1 and 2.

Just something to chew on. All the round numbers were pulled from the NFLPA site.

that's just phenomenal work. the overwhelming number of 1st rounders, even if they are with different teams, later in their careers, shows that the judgment of talent was still pretty accurate and sometimes it just took the right situation or coaching to bring the talent out. we need to take a qb, and it better be manning or rothslignagnaosnfaosnderger.

 

[Russ Smith]

Originally posted by Ouchie-Z-Clown
that's just phenomenal work. the overwhelming number of 1st rounders, even if they are with different teams, later in their careers, shows that the judgment of talent was still pretty accurate and sometimes it just took the right situation or coaching to bring the talent out. we need to take a qb, and it better be manning or rothslignagnaosnfaosnderger.

I know this isn't what you mean and I'm making a "straw man" argument, but what the hell. We do have to be careful in looking at that, the conclusion there is not "take a QB in round one", it's take the "right" Qb in round 1.

A lot of NFL teams, including us, have made the mistake of thinking we need a QB, and then reaching for Kelly Stouffer or Cade McNown in round one because they were our highest rated QB left on the board.

As has been pointed out, right now it appears unlikely we'll have a high enough pick to get Manning or Ben R without trading up. So we take the risk of reaching for a lesser QB in round one, or possibly WAY overpaying in trade up to get Manning, who still may not pan out.

Remember QB's are always overvalued, Carson Palmer was a 2nd or 3rd rounder at the start of his senior year, Boller lower. That's why to this day I'm so baffled with Leftwich lasting as long as he did, usually QB's go early not late with him it had to be the concern over his leg injuries.

We have to make sure we understand that simply taking a QB in round 1 is not a guarantee, you have to take the right one.

If by draft day it's clear that Manning or whoever is the right one, by all means take him either with our pick or by moving up, but if by draft day we find ourselves saying we need a QB and we think he's the best we can do, the answer is, take the best player on the board (hopefully a CB, DL or WR) and don't reach for a QB. Give Jeff Blake more guys to throw to and you'll be surprised how much better he'll look.

 

[Stout]

Well, we may be lucky and have the #1 QB fall to us in the draft...check out the 2000 draft. No QB taken until #18.

1 Cleveland Brown, Courtney DE Penn State
2 Washington Arrington, LaVar OLB Penn State
3 Washington Samuels, Chris T Alabama
4 Cincinnati Warrick, Peter WR Florida State
5 Baltimore Lewis, Jamal RB Tennessee
6 Philadelphia Simon, Corey DT Florida State
7 Arizona Jones, Thomas RB Virginia
8 Pittsburgh Burress, Plaxico WR Michigan State
9 Chicago Urlacher, Brian MLB New Mexico
10 Baltimore Taylor, Travis WR Florida
11 N.Y. Giants Dayne, Ron RB Wisconsin
12 N.Y. Jets Ellis, Shaun DE Tennessee
13 N.Y. Jets Abraham, John DE South Carolina
14 Green Bay Franks, Bubba TE Miami
15 Denver O'Neal, Deltha CB California
16 San Francisco Peterson, Julian OLB Michigan State
17 Oakland Janikowski, Sebastian K Florida State
18 N.Y. Jets Pennington, Chad QB Marshall


Of course, Pennington was a big concern coming from Marshall as he did. Also, it was a QB-light draft, with the next QB, Carmazzi, going in...eek! Round 3! What a weak QB draft! Ooh, wait, Bulger's here...a 6th rounder. Wow, what a steal! And Brady was a 6th rounder that year...and Rattay a 7th rounder...wow, lots of late-round QB talent that year!

I wonder if that's some kind of record?

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Originally posted by Russ Smith
I know this isn't what you mean and I'm making a "straw man" argument, but what the hell. We do have to be careful in looking at that, the conclusion there is not "take a QB in round one", it's take the "right" Qb in round 1.

A lot of NFL teams, including us, have made the mistake of thinking we need a QB, and then reaching for Kelly Stouffer or Cade McNown in round one because they were our highest rated QB left on the board.

As has been pointed out, right now it appears unlikely we'll have a high enough pick to get Manning or Ben R without trading up. So we take the risk of reaching for a lesser QB in round one, or possibly WAY overpaying in trade up to get Manning, who still may not pan out.

Remember QB's are always overvalued, Carson Palmer was a 2nd or 3rd rounder at the start of his senior year, Boller lower. That's why to this day I'm so baffled with Leftwich lasting as long as he did, usually QB's go early not late with him it had to be the concern over his leg injuries.

We have to make sure we understand that simply taking a QB in round 1 is not a guarantee, you have to take the right one.

If by draft day it's clear that Manning or whoever is the right one, by all means take him either with our pick or by moving up, but if by draft day we find ourselves saying we need a QB and we think he's the best we can do, the answer is, take the best player on the board (hopefully a CB, DL or WR) and don't reach for a QB. Give Jeff Blake more guys to throw to and you'll be surprised how much better he'll look.

not surprisingly, i couldn't agree with you more. and while i understand the risks attendant with taking a qb in the first round, if he's accurately rated a first-rounder (and i realize the "accuracy" is an iffy proposition at best), i think we gotta go and get him.

 

[SECTION 11]

Originally posted by Oran
This organization will be doomed if we draft Eli! The three blind witches have warned us!!!!

Oran: What is it about Manning that you don't like?

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Originally posted by SECTION 11
Oran: What is it about Manning that you don't like?

maybe that he's good and oran won't know how to adapt to cheering for a good team for a change?

 

[SweetD]

How can you pass on a guy with a Battle Cry like this...

Yea, verily: Who is that, prowling out of the tarmac! It is Eli Manning, hands clutching buzzsaw hand extensions! And with a vengeful scream, his voice cometh:

"I'm going to bruise you so badly, your momma won't recognize you!"

 

[RedStorm]

The season is half way over and we are already talking about next years draft. The life of a Card fan. The season is just too darn short.

 

[AZCB34]

Originally posted by Russ Smith
I know this isn't what you mean and I'm making a "straw man" argument, but what the hell. We do have to be careful in looking at that, the conclusion there is not "take a QB in round one", it's take the "right" Qb in round 1.

A lot of NFL teams, including us, have made the mistake of thinking we need a QB, and then reaching for Kelly Stouffer or Cade McNown in round one because they were our highest rated QB left on the board.

As has been pointed out, right now it appears unlikely we'll have a high enough pick to get Manning or Ben R without trading up. So we take the risk of reaching for a lesser QB in round one, or possibly WAY overpaying in trade up to get Manning, who still may not pan out.

Remember QB's are always overvalued, Carson Palmer was a 2nd or 3rd rounder at the start of his senior year, Boller lower. That's why to this day I'm so baffled with Leftwich lasting as long as he did, usually QB's go early not late with him it had to be the concern over his leg injuries.

We have to make sure we understand that simply taking a QB in round 1 is not a guarantee, you have to take the right one.

If by draft day it's clear that Manning or whoever is the right one, by all means take him either with our pick or by moving up, but if by draft day we find ourselves saying we need a QB and we think he's the best we can do, the answer is, take the best player on the board (hopefully a CB, DL or WR) and don't reach for a QB. Give Jeff Blake more guys to throw to and you'll be surprised how much better he'll look.

It would be interesting to see how many QB flops have been in there and from what round all the flops came from...That seems like a daunting research task though.

Russ, I agree with your assessment in that it is the "right" QB however it appears as though most of the right ones come early in the draft so teams must take a gutcheck and leap in and hope for the best. It has to be the right guy and then that right guy must be put into the right system with the right surrounding cast etc etc.

Clearly though, the "franchise QB" is significantly more likely to come in rounds 1 or 2 than in bottom feeder rounds. Those bottom feeder guys need more than talent to make their mark. Brady and Bulger both took over for injured players. Had those guys not been injured??? Gannon needed time to make his mark.

The biggest question now is: What makes a guy the "right" guy?

 

[Russ Smith]

Originally posted by AZCB34
Clearly though, the "franchise QB" is significantly more likely to come in rounds 1 or 2 than in bottom feeder rounds. Those bottom feeder guys need more than talent to make their mark. Brady and Bulger both took over for injured players. Had those guys not been injured??? Gannon needed time to make his mark.

The biggest question now is: What makes a guy the "right" guy?

It's a crapshoot. In hindsight Bulger and Brady always had the talent, they just had events in college beyond their control. Bulger got injured, and then his senior year his team had lost essentially their whole starting OL, and most of his best WR's. Jerry Porter played with him in college and said it was terrible how much he got killed that year by our OL.

IN the case of Brady, he was competing with Brian Griese for PT. Then they brought in Henson, who they HAD to play some because if they didn't, he'd have quit to play baseball fulltime. Brady played well when he played, but he had to compete for time with 2 other pro prospects. Makes sense now but at the time nobody realized it.

I guess my point was Druckenmiller was a first rounder in a bad QB draft, that he failed didn't mean first round QB's are a crapshoot, it means in a weak QB draft, taking the top rated one is far less sure, than taking the top rated one in a strong draft is.

I'm not an Eli Manning fan but I can't really put my finger on why, he just doesn't impress me as much as other QB's have over the years.

 

[Assface]

Originally posted by SweetD
How can you pass on a guy with a Battle Cry like this...

Yea, verily: Who is that, prowling out of the tarmac! It is Eli Manning, hands clutching buzzsaw hand extensions! And with a vengeful scream, his voice cometh:

"I'm going to bruise you so badly, your momma won't recognize you!"

That clinches it, we need Eli!

 

[WisconsinCard]

Originally posted by AZCB34
Let's take a look:

AFC East
BUF - Bledsoe (1)
MIA - Fiedler (UFA)
NE - Brady (6)
NYJ - Pennington (1)

AFC North
BAL - Boller (1)
CIN - Kitna (UFA)
CLE - Couch (1)
PIT - Maddox (1)

AFC South
JAX - Brunell (5)
HOU - Carr (1)
IND - Manning (1)
TEN - McNair (1)

AFC West
DEN - Plummer (2)
KC - Green (8th)
OAK - Gannon (4)
SD - Brees (2)


NFC East
NYG - Collins (1)
PHI - McNabb (1)
WAS - Ramsey (1)
DAL - Carter (2)

NFC North
GB - Favre (2)
CHI - Stewart (2)
MIN - Culpepper (1)
DET - Harrington (1)

NFC South
ATL - Vick (1)
CAR - Delhomme (UFA)
TB - Johnson (9)
NO - Brooks (4)

NFC West
AZ - Blake (6)
SF - Garcia (UFA)
STL - Bulger (6)
SEA - Hasselbeck (6)

According to this list ( i know not all these guys are starting today but all were but Vick I think) there were:

14 1st rounders
5 2nd rounders
2 4th rounders
1 5th rounder
4 6th rounders
1 8th rounder
1 9th rounder
4 Undrafted Free Agents

Now we can debate the quality of each QB but of all the starters listed, well over 50% were day one guys so IMO the starting quality isn't available after day 1 in general and all that Day 1 starting material was all had in rounds 1 and 2.

Just something to chew on. All the round numbers were pulled from the NFLPA site.

Take a look at the last 10 or 12 super bowl winning QB'S and then get back to me. This QB in the first round thing is still pretty new. Back in the day QB'S were never taken in the first round.

 

[BACH]

Originally posted by Mike Rogers
Back in the day QB'S were never taken in the first round.

No, because teams had both roster and cap space to left them sit on the bench for 3 or 4 years then. Not the case anymore....

 

[WisconsinCard]

Originally posted by BACH
No, because teams had both roster and cap space to left them sit on the bench for 3 or 4 years then. Not the case anymore....

That is a very good point. I guess it is just impossible to compare the old game to the new.