Let's stick to the first round. And, instead of saying "lots of busts," let's stick to what you said originally, "most."
You made the statement, and I asked if that's substantiated. Is it?
Eli Manning or Josh McCown?
- Thread starter BuckeyeCardinal
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You made the statement, and I asked if that's substantiated. Is it?
Lex
troublemaker
Kerouac-
The Pats and Bucs win with defense. Neither team has offensive superstars. Get serious.
Mike Vick? Are you kidding? Perhaps IF HE HAD a good line, he COULD be a superstar. He's been living on hype his whole NFL career.
Two players, Orlando Pace, and Jonathan Ogden, have produced many offensive superstars in their careers, not to mention Super Bowls.
The Pats and Bucs win with defense. Neither team has offensive superstars. Get serious.
Mike Vick? Are you kidding? Perhaps IF HE HAD a good line, he COULD be a superstar. He's been living on hype his whole NFL career.
Two players, Orlando Pace, and Jonathan Ogden, have produced many offensive superstars in their careers, not to mention Super Bowls.
kerouac9
Klowned by Keim
I actually looked at the past decade of QB First-rounders. This is the list:
2003 - C. Palmer, B. Leftwich, K. Boller, R. Grossman
2002 - D. Carr, J. Harrington, P. Ramsey
2001 - M. Vick
2000 - C. Pennington
1999 - T. Couch, D. McNabb, A. Smith, D. Culpepper, C. McNown
1998 - P. Manning, R. Leaf
1997 - J. Druckenmiller
1996 - None
1995 - S. McNair, K. Collins
1994 - H. Schuler, T. Dilfer
Now, with the criterion of "bust" being "never came to anything in the NFL", then I only see five (Smith, McNown, Leaf, Druckenmiller, & Schuler). That's out of 21.
A 75% success rate on first-round QBs isn't at all bad.
Dude look it up. I am sure you can find a list of 1st round picks for the last 5 or 10 years, then look at each QB taken and then see how many busted. I wish I had the time. One guy made a spread sheet breakdown of players taken in round 1 and QBs and WRs were the biggest bust. QBs were number 1. If I was your secretary I could do it for you.
Some guy printed a list of the SECOND QB taken almost all were taken in the 1st round a few went later... and most iirc were busts.
Light on NE is a pro-bowl type player who turned the team around.
Their C is approaching that.
TB has 2 FA pickups on their OL, a #1 pick, and a pro-bowler.
I just did the same thing. If you go back one more year to '93 you also have Bledsoe and Mirer, so it brings the percentage down a bit. But, those odds are higher than I would have expected.
kerouac9
Klowned by Keim
So Tom Brady isn't an offenseive superstar? What I guess you mean, then, is that you'd take a defensive lineman at #1 every season, since it's apparently all about defense and not about offense. (I will omit mention of the fact that Tampa had a Top 5 D for some time before having the O to take them to the Promised Land. Or that the 2000 Pats had a middling D when they won the S.B., but a very good running back). The Cards have three high picks on their defensive line right now, and three high picks and an expensive free agent on the offensive line. It hasn't helped them thus far. Don't let that take away from your condescending tone, though.
I know you're joking about M. Vick not being an offensive superstar. All he did was strap the Falcons on his back in 2002 and lead them to the first ever road playoff victory at Lambeau Field. I guess that was all hype, though.
Who else has Ogden made into a star besides J. Lewis? Not Chris Redman. Not Trent Dilfer. Not Travis Taylor. Not Kyle Boller (yet). Again, don't let the truth get in the way of your ramblings.
If that's the case, icking a QB should be a sure thing. If the odds go up from 75% when picking the FIRST qb of the draft than I REALLY like those odds.
You said yourself in another thread you thought 2 WRs would go first, right? Wouldn't that make whichever QB we choose at #3 the first?
Lex
troublemaker
Kerouac-
Brady is a caretaker. His job is to not mess up.
I would alternate offensive and defensive linemen every year. I would have taken Suggs last year, Gallery this year, then defense again etc... that way, you have guys in the wings, to replace the high priced guys becoming free agents. You need two linemen for every position on the line.
Tampa had a great defense, but they won a Super Bowl when they signed offensive linemen off the Vikings offensive machine.
Mike Vick is THE most over rated player in the NFL, playing a position that is over rated.
Jonathan Ogden is soooo good, the Ravens knew they could let Preist Holmes go. They also know that when J Lewis is in the gray bar hotel, or breaks down, they'll just get another "superstar." Same in Denver.
You didn't bring up Orlando Pace. Kurt Warner, Marc Bulger, Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt, Az Hakim, Isaac Bruce, all benefitted from Orlando Pace, the Lambs franchise player.
Brady is a caretaker. His job is to not mess up.
I would alternate offensive and defensive linemen every year. I would have taken Suggs last year, Gallery this year, then defense again etc... that way, you have guys in the wings, to replace the high priced guys becoming free agents. You need two linemen for every position on the line.
Tampa had a great defense, but they won a Super Bowl when they signed offensive linemen off the Vikings offensive machine.
Mike Vick is THE most over rated player in the NFL, playing a position that is over rated.
Jonathan Ogden is soooo good, the Ravens knew they could let Preist Holmes go. They also know that when J Lewis is in the gray bar hotel, or breaks down, they'll just get another "superstar." Same in Denver.
You didn't bring up Orlando Pace. Kurt Warner, Marc Bulger, Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt, Az Hakim, Isaac Bruce, all benefitted from Orlando Pace, the Lambs franchise player.
kerouac9
Klowned by Keim
So, basically if you take your extraordinarily narrow view of what constitutes a bust, and exclude anyone that was drafted in the last five years, I guess your right. You should work for the Bush Administration. I'm sure that you can doctor all sorts of info for them.
By the way, of those 21 picks, 10 of them have helped shepherd teams to the playoffs. Again, not a bad measuring stick.
Originally posted by kerouac9
So, basically if you take your extraordinarily narrow view of what constitutes a bust, and exclude anyone that was drafted in the last five years, I guess your right. You should work for the Bush Administration. I'm sure that you can doctor all sorts of info for them.
By the way, of those 21 picks, 10 of them have helped shepherd teams to the playoffs. Again, not a bad measuring stick.
What are you talking about? Are you saying that my breakdown is not correct?
It is 40% you should work for the Bush Administration.
40% of the time a team took a QB #1 it was WORTH it for that team.
It takes a while for QBs to get good by then they are often with another team. Cause the team that took them plays them they fail and they dump them.
As for the playoffs most of those guys played for great defensive teams. That is why they made the playoffs. Only Manning and Culpepper did it without a great defense. That is 2 out of 10.
As for your signature:
Red Air Force
DILLIGAFF
Alright...here is what I found. Going back 15 years from 2001, here is the sucess rate of 1st rd picks by position.
I only did QB, RB, and WR because there where just too many players I didnt recognize at the other positions. If anyone wants to look at the other positons, or to see how I came up with those numbers, PM me and I'll send ya the spreadsheet I was working from.
I doesnt necessarily support my postion to draft Eli, other than to say that ANY pick is a crap shoot, but here it is anyway.
1st Round Sucess Rate
QB - 40%
WR - 49%
RB - 32%
I only did QB, RB, and WR because there where just too many players I didnt recognize at the other positions. If anyone wants to look at the other positons, or to see how I came up with those numbers, PM me and I'll send ya the spreadsheet I was working from.
I doesnt necessarily support my postion to draft Eli, other than to say that ANY pick is a crap shoot, but here it is anyway.
1st Round Sucess Rate
QB - 40%
WR - 49%
RB - 32%
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Red Air Force
DILLIGAFF
Here is the list of QB's since thats what we're talking about.
1 Michael Vick Falcons QB Virginia Tech
1 Tim Couch Browns QB Kentucky
1 Peyton Manning Colts QB Tennessee
1 Drew Bledsoe Patriots QB Washington State
1 Jeff George Colts QB Illinois
1 Troy Aikman Cowboys QB UCLA
1 Vinny Testaverde Buccaneers QB Miami (FL)
2 Donovan McNabb Eagles QB Syracuse
2 Ryan Leaf Chargers QB Washington State
2 Rick Mirer Seahawks QB Notre Dame
3 Akili Smith Bengals QB Oregon
3 Steve McNair Oilers QB Alcorn State
3 Heath Shuler Redskins QB Tennessee
5 Kerry Collins Panthers QB Penn State
6 Trent Dilfer Buccaneers QB Fresno State
6 David Klingler Bengals QB Houston
6 Kelly Stouffer Cardinals QB Colorado State
7 Andre Ware Lions QB Houston
11 Daunte Culpepper Vikings QB Central Florida
12 Cade McNown Bears QB UCLA
13 Chris Miller Falcons QB Oregon
16 Dan McGwire Seahawks QB San Diego State
18 Chad Pennington Jets QB Marshall
24 Todd Marinovich Raiders QB USC
25 Tommy Maddox Broncos QB UCLA
26 Jim Druckenmiller 49ers QB Virginia Tech
26 Jim Harbaugh Bears QB Michigan
1 Michael Vick Falcons QB Virginia Tech
1 Tim Couch Browns QB Kentucky
1 Peyton Manning Colts QB Tennessee
1 Drew Bledsoe Patriots QB Washington State
1 Jeff George Colts QB Illinois
1 Troy Aikman Cowboys QB UCLA
1 Vinny Testaverde Buccaneers QB Miami (FL)
2 Donovan McNabb Eagles QB Syracuse
2 Ryan Leaf Chargers QB Washington State
2 Rick Mirer Seahawks QB Notre Dame
3 Akili Smith Bengals QB Oregon
3 Steve McNair Oilers QB Alcorn State
3 Heath Shuler Redskins QB Tennessee
5 Kerry Collins Panthers QB Penn State
6 Trent Dilfer Buccaneers QB Fresno State
6 David Klingler Bengals QB Houston
6 Kelly Stouffer Cardinals QB Colorado State
7 Andre Ware Lions QB Houston
11 Daunte Culpepper Vikings QB Central Florida
12 Cade McNown Bears QB UCLA
13 Chris Miller Falcons QB Oregon
16 Dan McGwire Seahawks QB San Diego State
18 Chad Pennington Jets QB Marshall
24 Todd Marinovich Raiders QB USC
25 Tommy Maddox Broncos QB UCLA
26 Jim Druckenmiller 49ers QB Virginia Tech
26 Jim Harbaugh Bears QB Michigan
I would count 14 of those QBs as "non-busts." 54%.
It maybe splitting hairs, but that's how I see it.
Red Air Force
DILLIGAFF
Personally I counted 11, with a couple of iffy guys who could go one way or another.
Harbaugh, Couch, George
Harbaugh, Couch, George
Vick
Couch
Manning
Bledsoe
George
Aikman
Testaverde
McNabb
McNair
Collins
Dilfer
Culpepper
Pennington
Harbaugh
These are the guys I counted as non-busts. I debated about Miller, too. He had some good years in ATL before concussions took him out of the game.
Couch
Manning
Bledsoe
George
Aikman
Testaverde
McNabb
McNair
Collins
Dilfer
Culpepper
Pennington
Harbaugh
These are the guys I counted as non-busts. I debated about Miller, too. He had some good years in ATL before concussions took him out of the game.
Vick: Very good QB. Still a little early to tell but I'll give you Vick.
Couch: Team that drafted him trying to replace.
Manning: Very good QB.
Bledsoe decent QB. No longer with original team.
George: the very definition of bust. Complete loser. Journeyman. The only great year he had was with... DG.
Aikman: very good QB.
Testaverde: original team dumped him, had a few good years. Journeyman.
McNabb: very good QB.
McNair: very good QB.
Collins: original team let him go. Decent career.
Dilfer: original team dumped him, won SB and was LET GO by team won SB with and is now a back up. Hardly a great resume.
Culpepper: Very good QB. But remember 2 or 3 QBs taken ahead of him.
Pennington: has had 1 good year, too early to judge.
Harbaugh: iirc 1 good year, not with team that drafted him.
Out of that I count 6 teams that got value out of drafting a QB.
(2) Thanks for doing the breakdown. I knew the stats were bad on RBs but I didn't know they were that bad. I bet if you did a breakdown on OTs they would grade out as the best success wise.
Couch: Team that drafted him trying to replace.
Manning: Very good QB.
Bledsoe decent QB. No longer with original team.
George: the very definition of bust. Complete loser. Journeyman. The only great year he had was with... DG.
Aikman: very good QB.
Testaverde: original team dumped him, had a few good years. Journeyman.
McNabb: very good QB.
McNair: very good QB.
Collins: original team let him go. Decent career.
Dilfer: original team dumped him, won SB and was LET GO by team won SB with and is now a back up. Hardly a great resume.
Culpepper: Very good QB. But remember 2 or 3 QBs taken ahead of him.
Pennington: has had 1 good year, too early to judge.
Harbaugh: iirc 1 good year, not with team that drafted him.
Out of that I count 6 teams that got value out of drafting a QB.
(2) Thanks for doing the breakdown. I knew the stats were bad on RBs but I didn't know they were that bad. I bet if you did a breakdown on OTs they would grade out as the best success wise.
