Expect Popavitch to adjust to the Diaw mismatch

[Suns_fan69]

Not sure who mentioned it first but the best idea is probably still Finley on Stat, Oberto (or Thomas, or TD) on Diaw. The reasons are numerous.

Keeps the existing starting lineup which has shown great chemistry
Diaw simply cannot exploit that matchup nearly as well (how many drive and kickouts at or near the rim do you think we'd see with that... 15? 20?)
Neither can Stat. Even if he could without fouling out due to offensive fouls, that'd still play right into the Spurs old gameplan of let Stat get his and shut down the rest of the team.
Furthermore Stat can't pass as well out of the double should they choose to come hard on a possession or two.

No brainer in my mind.

 

[Irish]

Obviously Boris needs to play well for the Suns to win.

The key problem for the Spurs is that their offense is primarily their "big three". The Suns game plan has been to play straight up without a lot of double teaming or fronting guys, which avoided having Duncan passing out to open shooters. But with Parker running wild, that defensive strategy just was not working.

In four games, Parker averaged 29.3 ppg on 54.5% shooting. Duncan at 23.8 ppg and Manu at 20.8 ppg - but the next highest is Finley at 8.8 ppg. Bowen has averaged only 1.0 ppg, KT and Oberto each have averaged 4.3 ppg. Barry is shooting well, but his defense is not what it was in past years. Finley has averaged 33.3 minutes a game compared to Barry's 14.3 and 8.0 minutes a game by Horry.

With Bowen in, the matchups are:

Bowen on Nash
Manu on Bell
KT or Oberto on Stoudemire
Duncan on Shaq
Parker on Diaw

Switching Manu onto Diaw did not work on Sunday. In any case, this lineup does not have a lot of offense besides the Spurs' Bhig Three.
Replacing Diaw with Finley gives the Spurs another shooter, but weakens the defense on Nash and puts Finley onto Diaw.

Traditionally the Spurs have prided themselve on not needing to double team anybody. Diaw may challenge that policy. Since the Spurs will not double off Shaq or Amare, that means the Suns guards will be open.

Obviously this tactic only works if the Suns guards are hitting and Diaw can keep Parker from overwhelming them.

 

[cly2tw]

Again, I'm not worried as long as we can stop Parker.

Playing a big lineup and most posting up has a nice byproduct: Nash doesn't have to dribble and create too much. This makes Bowen's presense less useful for them. But once he is out, Nash has the option to do more harm creating. That's another dilemma for Pop to solve.