Feeling Lucky Punk

[Harry]

Well how much of a chance do the Cards want to take to get to the playoffs? Andrew Luck is apparently being offered. His cap hit is $24 mil, but his $6 million roster bonus is due 3/13, so I don’t think that would carry to his new team. Also I think the prorated $6.4 million being charged this year would accelerate to Indy. That makes his 2018 cap hit $12mil. However next 3 years would be $22 mil, $21 mil and $21 mil. He’s affordable if he’s healthy, which he says he his. Of course the Cards have have a small problem keeping their QBs healthy. I’m quite certain LA & SF will be aiming to destroy whomever the Cards start. Still if he can catch lightning in a bottle, he has tremendous talent. Forget his results at Indy, they gave him too little help. The risk reward matrix is fascinating. If nothing else it’s a fun thought. I think he may not cost what you think so let me know if you like the idea and what you’d pay. Of course he has to pass a physical for there to be a deal.

 

[imaCafan]

I've had 5 shoulder surgeries. My experience is they never recover fully. I would gamble very little on a QB who has had surgery on his throwing shoulder, especially as long as he's taken to heal.

 

[Mitch]

Harry, where did you hear that Indy is offering Luck?

 

[Mitch]

Harry---this article outlines a bizarre trade proposal with the Browns giving up a ton of picks. This can't be realistic.

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2018/2...hat-is-andrew-lucks-value-on-the-trade-market

What, realistically, do you think it would cost the Cardinals to trade for Luck?

 

[TRW]

Too risky. If they are, in reality, looking to trade Luck then I would be very, very leery.

Not worth it even with his now "reasonable" contract.

 

[az jam]

Would have to pass a very intense physical. If so, he would be worth it for multiple first round picks. Key would be could we still have enough money or picks to build an offense around him. Two first round picks is what I would give for him.

 

[Proximo]

I would stay away I think.

If they are willing to trade him, they do not think he will ever be right again, because if he is he is obviously better than Brissett.

I know New Orleans got lucky with Brees in a similar situation, but Lucks injury seems more serious.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Kick the tires and see what they want. If our medical staff is good with him I’d do 2 firsts a 2nd (next year) and a 4th.

The absurd talent is worth giving up the haul if he’s physically sound.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Harry---this article outlines a bizarre trade proposal with the Browns giving up a ton of picks. This can't be realistic.

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2018/2...hat-is-andrew-lucks-value-on-the-trade-market

What, realistically, do you think it would cost the Cardinals to trade for Luck?

3 firsts (2 of which are top 4), 2 high seconds and 2 high thirds? Yeah that deal could never happen.

 

[GimmedaBall]

Sounds like a rumor concocted on a fan forum.

Indy has not been upfront about Luck's injury all of last year. Not sure why they would be going forward with a trade.

Make the trade conditional upon performance and games played.

If Luck performs at a high level, Indy earns the future picks after that year.

We give a 6th to bring him on our roster.
He performs, Indy gets next year's #1
Ditto for each succeeding year. Pay as you go.

 

[cardpa]

You have to consider this idea. QBs of his ability do not grow on trees. As AZjam said, a complete and intense physical including xrays, an MRI etc. to see just how well the healing process went and if there is any possibility of scarred tissue causing problems in the future. If he clears the physical, then by all means see if a deal can be made. He's only 28 so you gets a good number of years from him. It's not like a older rental (Warner, Palmer) that only has limited mileage left on them. I'm not sure what the cost would be for Luck but the CBS deal is unreal.

 

[Southpaw]

If he needs one more year to heal so what. Do it if it looks like he can come back. He still has an NFL brain.

 

[PJ1]

Just the fact they are offering him should make you leery.

 

[juza76]

Luck didn't show he deserve that amount of picks even if he is healthy

I dont think his perormance were in the top10 qbs in the Nfl in the previous seasons

Even Robert Griffin III when he was healthy (rookie season)had a better season then him

There is a lot of infatuation of some users here abound the prospect he was in college

 

[CardsFan88]

I saw a (I think) CBS sportsline mock draft which had them trading Luck. It also had them making other trades, and the Colts literally had the 1st, 3rd, and 4th pick in the draft. Yeah I don't know how that writer had the guts to actually mock that. But maybe there are some rumblings of a Luck trade. I've thought for quite a while (and posted about it) that it might be the right thing for them to do (draft another QB while this high in a QB rich draft).

But it would be a scary proposition to trade for Luck. After all the lies out of Indy about Luck being ready for the 2017 season. If they are actually willing to draft another one and trade Luck... that should be an even bigger red flag then we've seen so far. It would basically confirm everyone's worst or next to worst thoughts. That his career is in jeopardy.

It does depend on compensation. Since Indy paid the signing bonus, other then any future roster bonuses, he'd only be on the hook for salary (which means he can be cut with NO cap hit, assuming no roster bonus has come due by then).

I have no problem giving up a 5th or 6th round pick for a chance at Luck, but if he's not ready, we'll be starting someone like Chase Daniels or a rookie QB next year. Of course he'd have to pass a physical with us.

But I don't think Indy would trade him for a 5th or 6th rounder. They'd likely just rather keep him around and hope for the best.

The issue with Luck, is it's not just can he come back, it's can he come back and take a hundred hits or so on that shoulder? That's a huge secondary concern. As of now he's barely starting to throw again, not get driven into the turf. Working out with people to regain his form and mechanics, which tells me he might have lost the muscle memory. Tom House and someone else. It's possible even if he can return, he might not be the same player.

Of course at some point Indy could cut him, but that isn't likely this year. Maybe 2019.

There's also rumblings that Miami might draft a QB in the 1st round. If so, Tannehill might be available.

A healthy Luck would be a good QB. He didn't have much around him in Indy. He basically just had Hilton. But there's too much uncertainty to really make a big offer. 5th or 6th rounder.

 

[WildBB]

They are just throwing stuff out there, see what sticks. We don't have a QB....so.

 

[Arz101]

Sorry, not buying this.

 

[Chopper0080]

With the Colts at #3, I don't believe this is outside of the realm of possibility.

I would offer two 1st's and a 3rd for him. Even if he is 80% of the guy that he was, he is worth it. That would give us a couple years to develop the next guy, and still compete with the premier players on our roster. That he would have to pass a physical is probably the one reason I see this not happening.

 

[football karma]

Harry---this article outlines a bizarre trade proposal with the Browns giving up a ton of picks. This can't be realistic.

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2018/2...hat-is-andrew-lucks-value-on-the-trade-market

What, realistically, do you think it would cost the Cardinals to trade for Luck?

seriously: this is a fan wishing for what Andrew Luck could bring.

the reality: a team would only give up that much for a QB in the prime of his career if there is a guarantee that he is 100% healthy.

But if he was 100% guaranteed to be healthy, why would the Colts trade him???

so he isnt guaranteed to be healthy, and, if the Colts are really shopping him --that tells me they dont beleive he will ever be the same.

 

[az jam]

The Colts have the 3rd pick in the draft, that would give them a good shot at one of the top young qbs plus they have Brissett as the starter. They could get a boatload of picks for Luck and not have to worry about his long term health.

 

[Solar7]

I could see why the Colts might do this, given their draft position. If Darnold/Rosen/Mayfield/Allen all wow at the combine or during their pro day, I could see going for the full rebuild instead of hoping Luck returns to form.

But I'd also say, I don't want to try to trade for him unless it's a lower pick. I'd maybe give up a third to take on the risk and see what it's like for him to compete against (just spitballing here), Josh McCown and Luke Falk. Honestly though, that would probably be a real bad choice given that it could blow up in our faces and leave us back at square one in another year. If Arians were still here though, maybe I'd put more weight in it.

 

[Southpaw]

Multiple 1st rd picks or even 1 sounds unreasonably high. 2nd and a 3rd maybe.

Hypothetical scenario here. Luck in a trade or Bridgewater as a FA. Both with major injuries.

 

[DevonCardsFan]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cb...t-andrew-lucks-injury-is-inside-his-head/amp/

INDY thought the injury was in his head and wanted him to play, Luck disagreed and seems like he has a falling out in Indy, for Fantasy player reasons I followed it. It seems like Reich likes Brissett and Luck and Indy arent to happy with one another. Theres alot of articles out there

 

[oaken1]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cb...t-andrew-lucks-injury-is-inside-his-head/amp/

INDY thought the injury was in his head and wanted him to play, Luck disagreed and seems like he has a falling out in Indy, for Fantasy player reasons I followed it. It seems like Reich likes Brissett and Luck and Indy arent to happy with one another. Theres alot of articles out there

so... they are saying Luck has the yips... very possible

 

[kerouac9]

With the Colts at #3, I don't believe this is outside of the realm of possibility.

I would offer two 1st's and a 3rd for him. Even if he is 80% of the guy that he was, he is worth it. That would give us a couple years to develop the next guy, and still compete with the premier players on our roster. That he would have to pass a physical is probably the one reason I see this not happening.

This. A first and third (and a 2019 second that accelerates to a first if Luck plays 14 games this year) would be worth it for the player that Luck can be.

Luck maybe had better receivers in Indy than the had here, but the running game and offensive line he'd have here is far better than what he had with the Colts. We have Dallas's offensive line compared to Indy's.

I'm guessing we'd have to pay the 3/13 roster bonus, which is the reason Indy'd move him, but even then that deal is a steal.