Football Outsiders' Annual Comes Out Today!

[kerouac9]

I can't believe it's already mid-July and the Football Outsiders' annual is on its way. FO was on top of the dominance of Adrian Wilson before anyone, but they also promoted Anthony Gonzalez for years and years.

Anyway, the FO annual is the best $12.50 you can spend to get ready for the 2013 season and fantasy football (I rode the FO fantasy guidelines to a league championship last year).

They haven't provided the whole thing yet, but when they do, I'll post excerpts and observations of the Cards and their players in this space.

 

[Garthshort]

Thanks, K9.

 

[Cardiac]

I can't believe it's already mid-July and the Football Outsiders' annual is on its way. FO was on top of the dominance of Adrian Wilson before anyone, but they also promoted Anthony Gonzalez for years and years.

Anyway, the FO annual is the best $12.50 you can spend to get ready for the 2013 season and fantasy football (I rode the FO fantasy guidelines to a league championship last year).

They haven't provided the whole thing yet, but when they do, I'll post excerpts and observations of the Cards and their players in this space.

 

[kerouac9]

Football Outsiders thinks that we'll be a slightly improved team in 2013. They have a projected wins number of 6.5 and a 72% chance that we finish with 5-10 wins (44% 5-7 wins, 28% 8-10 wins).

For what it's worth, the track record of head coaches getting their first gig after their 60th birthday is pretty terrible. Zero head coaches hired for their first job after turning 60 since 1970 have finished with a record better than 6-10.

Also, our run game was pitiful. You knew that, but did you know that our running game was historically pitiful? The 2012 Cardinals 2.93 adjusted line yards is the worst since they have data on the stat in 1995.

 

[kerouac9]

Our offensive line sucked

The most interesting development in the new FOA is the addition of individual offensive line rankings for players. With the availability of All-22 film, game charters re-visited "blown" pass and run plays, and assigned responsibility to players for sacks and blown blocks that lead to hurries or QB hits.

The biggest story is that our offensive line was terrible. Like utterly, unbeliveably terrible. And, no, Nate Potter isn't the solution. From the Annual:

Because Batiste only started 10 games, his numbers in the table above don’t quite do his ineptitude justice. Prorated to 16 starts, he would have just missed the triple crown of suck, finishing second in all three blown block categories to San Diego’s Mike Harris. But it wasn’t just Batiste: If we prorate center Lyle Sendlein and right guard Adam Snyder to 16 starts as well, all five linemen finished no better than seventh-worst among starters at their respective positions in terms of blown blocks on passing plays. Even Nate Potter, who took over after Batiste’s mercy-benching, prorates nearly as bad over a full season. That’s right; Arizona had not one, but two, of the worst left tackles in the league last year.

Batiste was not only responsible for 8 sacks and 7 penalties, he had 25.5 blown blocks in the passing game and 5 in the run game. Batiste only started 10 games for the Arizona Cardinals in 2012.

Not to be outdone, Chilo Rachal had 7.5 blown blocks in the run game for the Bears in just 8 starts last year, combined with his 8.5 blown blocks in pass pro, I think it's safe to say that we shouldn't be expecting (or hoping) for Rachal to make the Final 53.

As for the highly overrated Nate Potter, he had 14 blown blocks in just 8 games (6 starts) at left tackle, and half of those blown blocks lead to sacks.

 

[Mulli]

Ah ha! Bellyachers unite!

 

[BigRedRage]

The most interesting development in the new FOA is the addition of individual offensive line rankings for players. With the availability of All-22 film, game charters re-visited "blown" pass and run plays, and assigned responsibility to players for sacks and blown blocks that lead to hurries or QB hits.

The biggest story is that our offensive line was terrible. Like utterly, unbeliveably terrible. And, no, Nate Potter isn't the solution. From the Annual:



Batiste was not only responsible for 8 sacks and 7 penalties, he had 25.5 blown blocks in the passing game and 5 in the run game. Batiste only started 10 games for the Arizona Cardinals in 2012.

Not to be outdone, Chilo Rachal had 7.5 blown blocks in the run game for the Bears in just 8 starts last year, combined with his 8.5 blown blocks in pass pro, I think it's safe to say that we shouldn't be expecting (or hoping) for Rachal to make the Final 53.

As for the highly overrated Nate Potter, he had 14 blown blocks in just 8 games (6 starts) at left tackle, and half of those blown blocks lead to sacks.

To be fair, Potter was a rookie. id say he did well for who he was.

 

[kerouac9]

On defense, Sam Acho was an absolute stud against the run. In 27 run plays where Acho was involved, 93% were stops, averaging 1.1 yards, good enough for 3rd in the NFL among linebackers.

Darnell Dockett may not have liked it, but he was also exceptional against the run, ranking 11th in stop percentage (83%).

Daryl Washington was involved in a high percentage of Cardinal defensive plays (16.8%, 13th in the NFL among linebackers), but his effectiveness overall is an open question. Against the run he ranked 91st among linebackers in yards allowed, and 56th among linebackers in yards allowed against the pass.

With the Dolphins last year, Washington's probable short-term replacement fared better against the run (53rd in stop percentage, 80th in yards) and against the pass (21st in yards).

In the secondary, Peterson was picked up more than maybe any elite corner in the game, targeted 22.9% of the time. But he fared well against that focus, posting a 59% success rate, good enough for 11th in the NFL.

Adrian Wilson was even better against the pass, ranking 4th in the NFL in success rate--76%.

Rashad Johnson was only in for 161 snaps last season--more than 100 fewer than Jamell Fleming.

Also, Antoine Cason sucks:

Arizona also signed San Diego’s Antoine Cason, co-star of the 2012 short film Ray Rice Converts 4th-and-29. After one viewing, Chargers defensive coordinator John Pagano panned the lackluster effort, saying, “I think more or less he thought that the guy was going to be down, and you don’t ever want to assume in this business.”

 

[BigRedRage]

Acho is a stud with the run and very servicable, hopefully he can step on his rush game.

Adub fourth in pass protection? he got raked over the coals for years here for his pass protection abilities.

 

[Darkside]

Good stuff, keep it comin'.

 

[iRobot]

There were a few times where Acho got completely gashed by not playing the cutback lane... makes me wonder if they didn't credit those to him.

 

[kerouac9]

FO on the Coaching Staff

The rest of Arians’ initial staff looks to have resulted from a two-question interview process: “Have I coached with you before? Are you experienced?” Jobs went to those answering, “Yes” and “No,” respectively. Harold Goodwin, brother of 49ers center Jonathan Goodwin, assisted Arians in Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, but has never been an offensive coordinator, and boasts only one season as a senior position coach. Todd Bowles played for Arians at Temple and worked with him in Cleveland, but 10 games in Philadelphia last year is the totality of his defensive coordinator experience. (Eagles fans will tell you it was quite an experience!) Amos Jones arrives in Arizona after six seasons in Pittsburgh, only one of which (2012) was spent as special teams coordinator. No word yet on whether Jones plans on using assistant strength and conditioning coach Pete Alosi (Sal’s brother) in punt coverage.

I mean, I guess it's hard to know whether a coaching staff is good until you've seen the product you create. But for a bunch of fans who criticized Whis for hiring underqualified toadies to fill out the upper levels of HIS coaching staff, we swallowed the likes of Harold Goodwin and Todd Bowles pretty easily.

On the other hand, FO also repeats the rumor that Bowles is going to install some kind of hybrid defensive front, and that's an assertion that I've yet to see backed up with a shred of evidence.

 

[kerouac9]

There were a few times where Acho got completely gashed by not playing the cutback lane... makes me wonder if they didn't credit those to him.

They do not. That particular stat is based only on the yardage where the player completed or joined in on a tackle.

 

[BigRedRage]

I mean, I guess it's hard to know whether a coaching staff is good until you've seen the product you create. But for a bunch of fans who criticized Whis for hiring underqualified toadies to fill out the upper levels of HIS coaching staff, we swallowed the likes of Harold Goodwin and Todd Bowles pretty easily.

On the other hand, FO also repeats the rumor that Bowles is going to install some kind of hybrid defensive front, and that's an assertion that I've yet to see backed up with a shred of evidence.

I think Moore and the defensive line coach helped us gloss over everything else. It seems the main staff is unknowns but then they all have veteran coaches overseeing them. With that, i became somewhat ok with it.

 

[Mulli]

They do not. That particular stat is based only on the yardage where the player completed or joined in on a tackle.

So not a complete stud vs the run?

 

[kerouac9]

FO on Carson Palmer

Palmer put up some big numbers last year in Oakland, but straddled with a depleted receiving corps, injury-riddled backfield, and iffy offensive line, he was not remotely close to the star gunslinger that once had people excited in Cincinnati. At this point in his career, Palmer is a veteran bridge quarterback. You can run your entire offense with him as your starter, but if you’re banking heavily on him, you probably shouldn’t count on running that offense in the postseason.

Palmer still has an NFL caliber-arm, though he’s lost some zip and power over the years (elbow problems in 2008 likely contributed to this). What’s concerning is that his accuracy tends to waver, particularly on throws further downfield. This can lead to serious problems when Palmer tries to fit tough balls through tight windows, which he’s always been more than willing to do. For a veteran who has learned a variety of different offensive concepts over the years, Palmer sure plays with iffy awareness at times. He’s not always great at reading the blitz and he’ll occasionally make reckless throws into coverage.

Of course, these risks can occasionally bring rewards. Palmer will have in 2013 something he hasn’t had in several years is: a legit No. 1 receiver who can make plays in congestion. Larry Fitzgerald will appreciate the veteran quarterback’s aggression. Many believe Palmer’s lack of mobility will be a problem behind Arizona’s bad offensive line, but Palmer does have decent pocket awareness and is willing to step up in the face of pressure. Those are the most important traits for overcoming bad blocking.

 

[kerouac9]

Football Outsiders graded the blocking of tight ends in the run and pass game.

Jeff King had 10.5 blown blocks on runs, the most of any tight end in the league.

Rob Housler was second, at 8.5.

Thank goodness we're going to depend more on these guys in 2013.

 

[cardncubfan]

Palmer put up some big numbers last year in Oakland, but straddled with a depleted receiving corps, injury-riddled backfield, and iffy offensive line, he was not remotely close to the star gunslinger that once had people excited in Cincinnati. At this point in his career, Palmer is a veteran bridge quarterback. You can run your entire offense with him as your starter, but if you’re banking heavily on him, you probably shouldn’t count on running that offense in the postseason.

Palmer still has an NFL caliber-arm, though he’s lost some zip and power over the years (elbow problems in 2008 likely contributed to this). What’s concerning is that his accuracy tends to waver, particularly on throws further downfield. This can lead to serious problems when Palmer tries to fit tough balls through tight windows, which he’s always been more than willing to do. For a veteran who has learned a variety of different offensive concepts over the years, Palmer sure plays with iffy awareness at times. He’s not always great at reading the blitz and he’ll occasionally make reckless throws into coverage.

Of course, these risks can occasionally bring rewards. Palmer will have in 2013 something he hasn’t had in several years is: a legit No. 1 receiver who can make plays in congestion. Larry Fitzgerald will appreciate the veteran quarterback’s aggression. Many believe Palmer’s lack of mobility will be a problem behind Arizona’s bad offensive line, but Palmer does have decent pocket awareness and is willing to step up in the face of pressure. Those are the most important traits for overcoming bad blocking.

Do they have an old write up of when Kurt Warner first came here? Just curious to see what they said is all. He didnt look that good in NY.

 

[Buckybird]

Do they have an old write up of when Kurt Warner first came here? Just curious to see what they said is all. He didnt look that good in NY.

He did until the Cards killed him & sacked him play after play at SDS...I believe they were 5-1 until the building caved in on the entire team.

 

[kerouac9]

Do they have an old write up of when Kurt Warner first came here? Just curious to see what they said is all. He didnt look that good in NY.

You can find old FO Almanac back issues on ABEBooks and Amazon. I had a handful of them, but the wife made me throw them out. "Childish things," and all that.

He didn't look that good in New York (-12.1 DVOA), and he didn't look that good the year before, 2003, in St. Louis (-64.7 DVOA, but only 72 passes; not enough to officially qualify), and he wasn't much better in 2002 (-17.3 DVOA, lower than Danny Wuerffel, Jeff Blake, Shane Matthews, and Ray Lucas.

The conventional wisdom at the time was that Warner's pact with the devil had expired, and he'd turned back into a mortal being. There was very, very little evidence to suggest otherwise.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

You can find old FO Almanac back issues on ABEBooks and Amazon. I had a handful of them, but the wife made me throw them out. "Childish things," and all that.

He didn't look that good in New York (-12.1 DVOA), and he didn't look that good the year before, 2003, in St. Louis (-64.7 DVOA, but only 72 passes; not enough to officially qualify), and he wasn't much better in 2002 (-17.3 DVOA, lower than Danny Wuerffel, Jeff Blake, Shane Matthews, and Ray Lucas.

The conventional wisdom at the time was that Warner's pact with the devil had expired, and he'd turned back into a mortal being. There was very, very little evidence to suggest otherwise.

Hell, when he got here he wasn't that great. His turnaround, culminating with his near perfect performance against the Packers (arguably one of the best QB'ed games ever) is almost too good to be fiction. Warner's story in general is one of the all time great sports stories.

 

[kerouac9]

Hell, when he got here he wasn't that great. His turnaround, culminating with his near perfect performance against the Packers (arguably one of the best QB'ed games ever) is almost too good to be fiction. Warner's story in general is one of the all time great sports stories.

That's right. In 2006 Matt Leinart actually outperformed Warner in FO's advanced metrics. Warner was still a below-average quarterback in 2006 (-4.5 DVOA), although in 2005 his metrics were just about average (8.2% DVOA), although he had almost as many interceptions (9) as TDs (11).

 

[BigRedRage]

He did until the Cards killed him & sacked him play after play at SDS...I believe they were 5-1 until the building caved in on the entire team.

That way in NY I believe. He got sacked 4-6 times if I remember right, In the first half too.


On the following posts, warner was a fumble machine when he came here too, the gloves turnewd him back into a great story

 

[Skumbag]

I still don't understand how Warner could bounce back and miraculously become elite at that stage of his career. Never made any sense.

 

[PACardsFan]

I still don't understand how Warner could bounce back and miraculously become elite at that stage of his career. Never made any sense.

It was the GLOVE that saved him