Football Outsiders' Annual Comes Out Today!

[Russ Smith]

On defense, Sam Acho was an absolute stud against the run. In 27 run plays where Acho was involved, 93% were stops, averaging 1.1 yards, good enough for 3rd in the NFL among linebackers.

:

How do they determine what "involved" was? Generally Acho is really good against the run, rookie year he was terrific. But there was a stretch of games last season where in every game he overran a play giving up the backside for a big gain, so it's really hard for me to believe run plays where he was involved came out to 1.1 yards unless those plays don't count?

I felt it was one of those cases where as the losses built up and the offense sucked more and more, the defense started trying to win games and that leads to things like losing contain or some of the mistakes we saw from Peterson trying to make a game changing play.

 

[kerouac9]

This thread isn't as fun as I thought it would be. The problem with FO this year from a Cards' fans' perspective is that (as some of us have been saying for six months) the quarterback situation was so terrible that it was difficult to evaluate anyone else. The defense was unquestionably good last year, but then it was immediately dismantled from the top down, and replaced with largely questionable talents.

Anyway, I thought this was funny:

The Browns (Banner, reportedly) hedged with Jason Campbell and Brian Hoyer instead of replacing Weeden, so a team with a solid offensive line and exciting youth at the skill positions will go through a typically dreary Browns-style quarterback competition. The team is likely to look a lot like the 2012 Cardinals: a Horton front seven clobbering everything in sight, one fine young cornerback playing Little Dutch Boy to any passes that leak through, and a quarterback situation based on wishful thinking.

 

[kerouac9]

How do they determine what "involved" was? Generally Acho is really good against the run, rookie year he was terrific. But there was a stretch of games last season where in every game he overran a play giving up the backside for a big gain, so it's really hard for me to believe run plays where he was involved came out to 1.1 yards unless those plays don't count?

I felt it was one of those cases where as the losses built up and the offense sucked more and more, the defense started trying to win games and that leads to things like losing contain or some of the mistakes we saw from Peterson trying to make a game changing play.

From the "Statistical Toolbox" section:

Plays (Plays): The total defensive plays including tackles, pass deflections, interceptions, fumbles forced, and fumble recoveries. This number comes from the official NFL gamebooks and therefore does not include plays on which the player is listed by the Football Outsiders game charting project as in coverage, but does not appear in the standard play-by-play. Special teams tackles are also not included.

Stops (Stop): The total number of plays which prevent a “success” by the offense (45 percent of needed yards on first down, 60 percent on second down, 100 percent on third or fourth down).

Obviously, the official NFL game book doesn't provide data where the player wasn't involved on a particular play, either because he was on the other side of the field or because he overran the play and wasn't involved in the tackle.

 

[Russ Smith]

From the "Statistical Toolbox" section:



Obviously, the official NFL game book doesn't provide data where the player wasn't involved on a particular play, either because he was on the other side of the field or because he overran the play and wasn't involved in the tackle.

Yeah it makes sense. I was just curious, like I say I think Acho and others were making mistakes because the offense was so bad they felt like they HAD to take chances.

I don't expect to see him do that repeatedly again this year.

I do agree until I see otherwise I'm of the opinion we weakened our strength and while I think we strengthened our weakness, not sure we are going to end up anything better.

I'm just hoping Arians and Palmer can make the passing game so good and the young RB's step up. I don't see any way the defense is nearly as good as last season.

 

[kerouac9]

About Rush Linebackers

This may be interesting only to me, but it's possible that our linebacking corps isn't as toothless as it looked last season when it comes to chasing down the QB.

Yes, Acho, Schofield, and the departed Quentin Groves only combined for 12 sacks last season. But they also combined for 32 hurries.

What does that mean?

Basically, at a certain point, as long as you're consistently pressuring the quarterback, the sacks are going to come. In 2011 O'Brien Schofield had a nice amount of sacks, but they came paired with relatively few hurries, which indicated that Schofield was getting "lucky" with sacks.

For comparison's sake, Clay Matthews with the Packers notched 13 QB kills in 2012, but added 14 QB hits and 20 hurries on top of that.

In 2012, our outside linebackers were okay putting pressure on the QB, but couldn't convert those hurries into sacks. Sam Acho had more quarterback hurries (13) than Darnell Dockett did (10) last year.

Lorenzo Alexander only played 294 snaps for the Redskins in their defense, but managed to produce 9 QB hits and 11 hurries in that limited action. That may help explain why he was viewed as a promising option as a free agent at the position.

The bad news is that Daryl Washington probably maximized his opportunities at rushing the QB. 9 sacks combined with 8 QB hurries is just not sustainable for a period of time. Ray Horton did an excellent job of putting him in the position to get to the QB when he was unleashed to explode across the line of scrimmage.

EDIT:

By the way--want to know who's good at football? J.J. Watt. 20.5 sacks. 25 QB hits. 29.5 hurries. 18 tipped passes. Total monster.

 

[Catfish]

K-9, I'm glad to hear you make the distinction that pressure on the QB is what really counts, and not actual sacks. Our OLB's did get reasonable pressure on the QB last year. That simply had to be in order for them to rank so highly as a total defense. Our Safeties were not exactly world beaters in pass defense, (in fact A-Dub was somewhat of a detriment in the past two years at pass defense). Realizing that our backers put sufficient pressure on the QB was a really good point on your part. Nice post.

 

[kerouac9]

K-9, I'm glad to hear you make the distinction that pressure on the QB is what really counts, and not actual sacks. Our OLB's did get reasonable pressure on the QB last year. That simply had to be in order for them to rank so highly as a total defense. Our Safeties were not exactly world beaters in pass defense, (in fact A-Dub was somewhat of a detriment in the past two years at pass defense). Realizing that our backers put sufficient pressure on the QB was a really good point on your part. Nice post.

That is just not factual. Or, at least, there's no actual data to support that assertion.

Kerry Rhodes was targeted 33 times and allowed just 5.7 yards (adjusted) on completions while notching 4 interceptions.

Adrian Wilson was targeted 20 times and had the fourth-highest success rate (76%!) in the NFL.

Both starting safeties ranked in the Top 13 in the NFL in adjusted pass yards.

For comparison's sake, Rashad Johnson had only a 31% success rate and Yeremiah bell a 48% success rate last year.

 

[BigRedRage]

That is just not factual. Or, at least, there's no actual data to support that assertion.

Kerry Rhodes was targeted 33 times and allowed just 5.7 yards (adjusted) on completions while notching 4 interceptions.

Adrian Wilson was targeted 20 times and had the fourth-highest success rate (76%!) in the NFL.

Both starting safeties ranked in the Top 13 in the NFL in adjusted pass yards.

For comparison's sake, Rashad Johnson had only a 31% success rate and Yeremiah bell a 48% success rate last year.

I think a lot of adubs critics are from seeing the one or two times a year he would get completely burnt by a guy like vernon davis up the seam. Beyond those few plays a year he was always solid in my eyes.

 

[kerouac9]

I think a lot of adubs critics are from seeing the one or two times a year he would get completely burnt by a guy like vernon davis up the seam. Beyond those few plays a year he was always solid in my eyes.

I don't know. It seemed to me that where ADub really struggled was in tight spaces, particularly in the end zone.

I think that ADub really had great straight-line speed, but he was stiff in the hips and couldn't always explode to full speed. Changing direction in tight spaces seemed to be what was his Achilles' heel.

And he was consistently pwn3d by Antonio Gates, who made more than a few safeties look silly.