Football Outsiders: Cards Defense Best in NFL

[Cardiac]

I don't. Football Outsiders tracks them, but you need a premium subscription to access (which I don't have). I thought that the Cards tracked them, but your mileage will vary there, and I don't see those numbers on the player page.

We'll know at the middle of summer when FO publishes their annual.

Okay, thanks for the info. Maybe Duckjake does since he is a stats data miner but I haven't seen him posting lately.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Travis LaBoy...

No cursing in the house.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

If only we had a QB, we'd be a solid playoff team.

 

[kerouac9]

If only we had a QB, we'd be a solid playoff team.

I'm not 100% sure on that anymore. If only because I think that Palmer's production is below his skill level.

This isn't to say that Palmer is a Top 15 QB or anything, but I think that at this point in his career, he's still better than the 34th out of 39 ranking that he has in the FootballOutsiders advanced metrics. Palmer, statistically, is sandwiched between Chad Henne and Christian Ponder in the metrics.

He's just not that bad. So the question to me is whether there is a non-elite quarterback that could succeed with this supporting cast. I don't think so.

For whatever reason, Andre Roberts and Rob Housler are invisible in this offense. Maybe the route concepts are too complex, maybe it's that they're having to make two mental quantum leaps from what they had to deal with under Kolb/Lindley/Skelton/Bartell.

Whatever the case, I'm not sure anymore we're "a quarterback away" from being the 16th ranked offense instead of the 29th ranked offense. I expect that Roberts and Housler will be gone next year.

 

[BigRedRage]

I'm not 100% sure on that anymore. If only because I think that Palmer's production is below his skill level.

This isn't to say that Palmer is a Top 15 QB or anything, but I think that at this point in his career, he's still better than the 34th out of 39 ranking that he has in the FootballOutsiders advanced metrics. Palmer, statistically, is sandwiched between Chad Henne and Christian Ponder in the metrics.

He's just not that bad. So the question to me is whether there is a non-elite quarterback that could succeed with this supporting cast. I don't think so.

For whatever reason, Andre Roberts and Rob Housler are invisible in this offense. Maybe the route concepts are too complex, maybe it's that they're having to make two mental quantum leaps from what they had to deal with under Kolb/Lindley/Skelton/Bartell.

Whatever the case, I'm not sure anymore we're "a quarterback away" from being the 16th ranked offense instead of the 29th ranked offense. I expect that Roberts and Housler will be gone next year.

We are an OL away.

If the run game can do well like it did last game, Palmer will keep playing very well. Until that run game clicks, Palmer will have guys in his face all day and make poor decisions as everyone would in that situation.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

I'm not 100% sure on that anymore. If only because I think that Palmer's production is below his skill level.

This isn't to say that Palmer is a Top 15 QB or anything, but I think that at this point in his career, he's still better than the 34th out of 39 ranking that he has in the FootballOutsiders advanced metrics. Palmer, statistically, is sandwiched between Chad Henne and Christian Ponder in the metrics.

He's just not that bad. So the question to me is whether there is a non-elite quarterback that could succeed with this supporting cast. I don't think so.

For whatever reason, Andre Roberts and Rob Housler are invisible in this offense. Maybe the route concepts are too complex, maybe it's that they're having to make two mental quantum leaps from what they had to deal with under Kolb/Lindley/Skelton/Bartell.

Whatever the case, I'm not sure anymore we're "a quarterback away" from being the 16th ranked offense instead of the 29th ranked offense. I expect that Roberts and Housler will be gone next year.

You may be right. That said, look at the NFC...who is really good? Even the best teams are fairly limited. We may not be good enough to beat Seattle, but with a better QB, I really don't see anyone else out there that is unbeatable.

My argument isn't so much about where the Cards are at, more the parity throughout the league. With our D and Carson not putting them in bad positions with pick-6's and awful interceptions, I think we'd be a playoff team. I'm especially disappointed because I thought Palmer would be an adequate stop gap who wouldn't make the bad mistakes. It seems he's never figured that out, and the chances of it happening at this point are nil.

 

[kerouac9]

We are an OL away.

If the run game can do well like it did last game, Palmer will keep playing very well. Until that run game clicks, Palmer will have guys in his face all day and make poor decisions as everyone would in that situation.

Let's not get crazy. The running game can't "do well like it did last game," because they're not going to be playing a defense that's decimated by injuries every game like they did last game. Palmer didn't even play "very well" in that game. His QBR was below 80, and he attempted all of 18 passes. Arians essentially took the ball out of his hands and treated him like John Skelton for the last three quarters of that game.

 

[kerouac9]

You may be right. That said, look at the NFC...who is really good? Even the best teams are fairly limited. We may not be good enough to beat Seattle, but with a better QB, I really don't see anyone else out there that is unbeatable.

My argument isn't so much about where the Cards are at, more the parity throughout the league. With our D and Carson not putting them in bad positions with pick-6's and awful interceptions, I think we'd be a playoff team. I'm especially disappointed because I thought Palmer would be an adequate stop gap who wouldn't make the bad mistakes. It seems he's never figured that out, and the chances of it happening at this point are nil.

New Orleans is really good.

Carson Palmer throws TAINTs and awful interceptions. That's what he does. He's Jay Cutler without the cigarette or mobility. I just don't think for sure that you can say we could replace Palmer with... say, Alex Smith, and this would be a playoff team.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Arians essentially took the ball out of his hands and treated him like John Skelton for the last three quarters of that game.

Considering Palmer's predilection for throwing INT's, isn't that that always going to be the best strategy? Time for Arians to wake up and realize that his preferred offense is probably not conducive to winning, and try not to F it up for the D.

 

[TJ]

The defense is certainly playoff caliber, but not good enough to overcome an average-to-subaverage offense. This is like last season, to a lesser extent.

Currently, Palmer is not playing well enough to make the Cards a threat to get a wild card berth. He needs to limit his turnovers and make better decisions with where he's going with the ball. I don't think he will improve much throughout the 2nd half of the season; therefore, it is prudent to look for elsewhere for the solution at QB, not for this season, but the following.

 

[Shane]

The defense is certainly playoff caliber, but not good enough to overcome an average-to-subaverage offense. This is like last season, to a lesser extent.

Currently, Palmer is not playing well enough to make the Cards a threat to get a wild card berth. He needs to limit his turnovers and make better decisions with where he's going with the ball. I don't think he will improve much throughout the 2nd half of the season; therefore, it is prudent to look for elsewhere for the solution at QB, not for this season, but the following.

Why not this season?

 

[BigRedRage]

Let's not get crazy. The running game can't "do well like it did last game," because they're not going to be playing a defense that's decimated by injuries every game like they did last game. Palmer didn't even play "very well" in that game. His QBR was below 80, and he attempted all of 18 passes. Arians essentially took the ball out of his hands and treated him like John Skelton for the last three quarters of that game.

and he had a good game with those passes. If the running games earns us 14 passes for several touchdowns we can win against anyone. I prefer we run well, get a lead and maintain it with running vs passing with our head on fire anyway.

 

[BigRedRage]

The defense is certainly playoff caliber, but not good enough to overcome an average-to-subaverage offense. This is like last season, to a lesser extent.

Currently, Palmer is not playing well enough to make the Cards a threat to get a wild card berth. He needs to limit his turnovers and make better decisions with where he's going with the ball. I don't think he will improve much throughout the 2nd half of the season; therefore, it is prudent to look for elsewhere for the solution at QB, not for this season, but the following.

who knows, maybe last game was a preview of the offense starting to get a groove in their new playbook.

 

[kerouac9]

and he had a good game with those passes. If the running games earns us 14 passes for several touchdowns we can win against anyone. I prefer we run well, get a lead and maintain it with running vs passing with our head on fire anyway.

Wrong. The median offense in the NFL averages about 24 ppg. Our very good defense is still only holding opponents to over 21 ppg. Against a decimated defense and offense like Atlanta's--one that is going to turn the ball over four or five times--then you can win like that (particularly at home).

But this isn't the year 2000, and this isn't the 2000 Baltimore Ravens defense. In the NFL, you have to pass to win. Of the 8 teams with 6 wins or more in the NFL (KC, Denver, Seattle, New England, Indy, New Orleans, San Francisco, and Cincy), only 2 of them (New England and KC) have a below-average QB.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Wrong. The median offense in the NFL averages about 24 ppg. Our very good defense is still only holding opponents to over 21 ppg. Against a decimated defense and offense like Atlanta's--one that is going to turn the ball over four or five times--then you can win like that (particularly at home).

But this isn't the year 2000, and this isn't the 2000 Baltimore Ravens defense. In the NFL, you have to pass to win. Of the 8 teams with 6 wins or more in the NFL (KC, Denver, Seattle, New England, Indy, New Orleans, San Francisco, and Cincy), only 2 of them (New England and KC) have a below-average QB.

and meanwhile, Brady at "below average" has still on pace for 4400 yards, 26 TDs and 12 INTs.

 

[kerouac9]

and meanwhile, Brady at "below average" has still on pace for 4400 yards, 26 TDs and 12 INTs.

Below average advanced metrics, and just barely. He's 19th in DYAR, 20th in DVOA (his Value over Average is actually -5.8%, which is amazing), and 17th in QBR.

Even in traditional stats, his numbers are inflated by a crazy number of attempts. He's 28th in the NFL in completion percentage (below Schaub, Ponder, Locker, and Palmer), 27th in yards per attempt, and 20th in QB rating.

Pretty crazy. Obviously his receiver situation is a problem, and a large part of the problem.

But you're wrong about the projections. ESPN.com projects him to just over 4000 yards, 23 TDs, and 11 INTs: http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/2330/tom-brady

EDIT: Also, isn't this the other side of the position you took w/r/t Palmer's stats the last two years with Oakland?

 

[Cheesebeef]

Below average advanced metrics, and just barely. He's 19th in DYAR, 20th in DVOA (his Value over Average is actually -5.8%, which is amazing), and 17th in QBR.

Even in traditional stats, his numbers are inflated by a crazy number of attempts. He's 28th in the NFL in completion percentage (below Schaub, Ponder, Locker, and Palmer), 27th in yards per attempt, and 20th in QB rating.

Pretty crazy. Obviously his receiver situation is a problem, and a large part of the problem.

But you're wrong about the projections. ESPN.com projects him to just over 4000 yards, 23 TDs, and 11 INTs: http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/2330/tom-brady

EDIT: Also, isn't this the other side of the position you took w/r/t Palmer's stats the last two years with Oakland?

I'm not taking much umbrage with your contention that Brady's been below average, just that below average for Brady is still much better then what we have.

as to "the other side of the position" comment, Brady's had a couple games where he's flat carried the team to victories and done just enough in others not to lose them. He's not the Brady of the past, but he's still helped that team to get to 7-2. as opposed to Palmer, who's atrocious starts and awful picks continually put the Raiders in a hole and was a major contributor to why they were terrible last year. And his stats 2 years ago were a complete abomination throwing 13 TDs to 16 INTs...in like 9 games. so not sure what point you're trying to make here.

and his stats the

 

[GuernseyCard]

Yeah... Folk pimping John Abraham are suffering from (a) recency bias, (b) hope, or (c) a combination thereof.

They might be well-advised to remember that the Walking Joey Porter Dead slouched, shuffled, and stumbled himself to 4 sacks in Weeks 6-8 of the 2010 season, then managed 0 sacks the rest of the year and 1 sack the remainder of his career.

How'd you enjoy the second coming of Joey Porter today?

 

[BullheadCardFan]

D played a good game today. Really stood up when we needed them.

Didn't quit after the fumble and kept the pressure.

Kudos to Bowles

 

[TJ]

How'd you enjoy the second coming of Joey Porter today?

Yea, I was pimping Abraham.

Sorry not sorry.

For a mid-30's pass rusher, he's having a good season and doing exactly what he's paid to do.

 

[Mulli]

Yea, I was pimping Abraham.

Sorry not sorry.

For a mid-30's pass rusher, he's having a good season and doing exactly what he's paid to do.

I have always loved him!

Haha

 

[TJ]

I have always loved him!

Haha

Pfft...

 

[cardncubfan]

How'd you enjoy the second coming of Joey Porter today?

 

[Cardiac]

This D is amazing. Sure they had me freaked out after giving up a TD drive after each of the Cards first 2 TD's but let's keep in mind they scored the 1st TD.

The truly impressive thing is the adjustments Bowles makes at half time.

I think Abraham should at least get a 1/2 a sack on the one they gave full credit to Rucker.

 

[Chopper0080]

The defense just seems to get better and better each week and have far exceeded my expectations. Bowles has really figured out how to get the most out of the players on defense and fit his man to man scheme. I am very happy to see how this unit has progressed and I could not have been more wrong about them up to this point. We still need an edge rusher however. I would really like to add Khalil Mack in the draft, but I think we go QB or OT instead.