Free Agency 2018

[Hoop Head]

I don't really see the point in doing a sign and trade with Warren either. The Suns have cap space, the only reason to do that is if it's for a restricted free agent and even then, I'd rather force the opposing team to match. Call their bluff. No one is that exciting of a RFA prospect at PG to lose Warren for them. Smart? No thanks. VanVleet? Maybe, just maybe, but the Raptors are at the luxury tax line and already have Delon Wright. So who are the sign and trade options?

Perhaps at PF where Randle, Parker, and Gordon are available but I'm not excited at the prospect of paying them huge money either. That could make for a new Knight contract. While I think they're good productive players for the most part, what do they really offer that we can't find elsewhere? They're starters at best but will be overpaid by someone, I don't want to see the Suns look desperate trying to sign one to $20 million+ annually. Max is north of $25 million. Are those guys worth that much money? I know we need to overpay because they're restricted but having one of those guys making a 1/4 of your cap hinders you, significantly, for years to come.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

Would you guys rather have Aaron Gordon for $20-25 million a year or Marquese Chriss for $3.2 million a year?

Take a look at a comparison of the two post all-star game adjusted per 36 minutes.

https://stats.nba.com/vs/#!/?PlayerID=1627737&VsPlayerID=203932&Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular Season&SeasonSegment=Post All-Star&PerMode=Per36

Is neither an option? I don't think Gordon's available anyway. I would be really surprised if the Magic don't match him. There's not a lot to get excited about in Orlando, and I don't think they can afford to let him go.

At the 4, I'd prefer Luc Mbah a Moute to a high volume guy like Gordon or Parker. Between the small ball lineups and our young power forwards, I'm looking for a guy who can play 20-25 minutes or so, make a big impact on defense, and hit open 3 point shots. Let's invest our greater resources in a point guard.

 

[Chaplin]

I'm pretty sure he meant Rozier. Even the biggest Warren detractor wouldn't consider him not enough to trade for Tim Frazier.

Yeah, gotta love autocorrect.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I have a feeling I'm not going to be thrilled with whoever we sign but please, please, please don't bring in another over the hill veteran on a long contract. If we absolutely must make an absurd vet signing, keep it to one year.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

Just for kicks, here's my shot at a realistic roster for next season that I could get behind. I'd still like to trade for Kemba, but I also see the value in just adding guys who will put our talented young players in the best situation possible rather than being a focus themselves. You could argue steady players who pass and shoot efficiently while playing tough defense should trump the search for a "star". I'd also love to trade Warren for a key player or dump Knight, but I'm trying to be conservative in my expectations.

1. Renounce rights to Payton and Len
2. Resign Ulis
3. Trade Chriss to the Raptors to get Fred VanVleet on a solid contract.
4. Sign Luc Mbah a Moute to a reasonable contract.
5. Re-up Big Sauce if there's enough cap space left.
6. Move on from Davon Reed, Danuel House, Alec Peters, and Isaiah Canaan
7. Give two-way contracts to Shaq Harrison and George King


The Roster:

VanVleet/ Okobo/ Ulis

Booker/ Knight/ Daniels

Jackson/ Bridges/ Dudley

Mbah a Moute/ Warren/ Bender

Ayton/ Chandler/ Williams


Harrison/ King


Minutes Distribution:


PG VanVleet 26/ Knight 12/ Okobo 10

SG Booker 36/ Knight 6/ Bridges 6

SF Jackson 30/ Bridges 12/ Warren 6

PF Mbah a Moute 18/ Warren 18/ Bender 8/ Jackson 4

C Ayton 30/ Chandler 10/ Bender 8



The Stars:

Devin Booker 36 minutes
Josh Jackson 34
Deandre Ayton 30

These three are the focus, and the other players on the roster are put in place to make these three more effective. VanVleet brings the ball down the court, but Booker and Jackson will often initiate the offense.

Rotation Players:

Fred VanVleet 26
T.J. Warren 24
Mikal Bridges 18
Luc Mbah a Moute 18
Brandon Knight 18
Dragan Bender 16

VanVleet is there to set the table for everyone else, play good defense, and hit open threes. Warren and Knight are microwave scorers to keep the defenses honest and provide change of pace looks. Bridges, Mbah a Moute, and Bender are there to switch on defense and spread the floor.

Change of Pace Options:

Elie Okobo 10
Tyson Chandler 10

Chandler will play more against some teams than others. He's there to give Ayton a breather, be a big body, and be a great teammate. Bring Okobo along slowly and see how he develops.

In Case of Injury, Break Glass:

Alan Williams
Tyler Ulis
Troy Daniels
Jared Dudley

These are all proven NBA players you can trust if one of the rotation players goes down. Ulis, Williams, and Dudley are high character guys and good teammates, which gives them a boost over other quality options, and Daniels is there because you can never have too many shooters.

Two-Way Contracts:

Shaquille Harrison
George King

Peters, House, and Reed are all options here as well. Should be fun to monitor these guys over summer league. Canaan would fit well in Ulis' spot if the Suns want to go that way.

Off the Team:

Marquese Chriss
Alec Peters
Isaiah Canaan
Davon Reed
Danuel House

 

[sdscard4]

Bender will play more minutes lots more. That high of a pick playing 16 minutes is disgusting.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

Bender will play more minutes lots more. That high of a pick playing 16 minutes is disgusting.

This appears to be the year the Suns really focus on being competitive. It's easy to look at Bender as the #4 pick because that's what happened last year. However, he only played 25 mpg last year because the Suns were openly tanking and focusing on developing players, not because he earned those minutes.

I've not given up on Bender, and I think you can bring him along slowly without giving up on him. It may actually be better for his development.

Right now though, he's a 20-year-old seven footer coming off a season where he shot less than 39% from the field, had a PER of 7.11, and often looked completely lost. He's not a guy you can play big minutes on a competitive team. Yet.

 

[sunsfan88]

Btw, shot creation is still more important than 3 pt shooting alone.

And Warren isn't a shot creator. Over 63% of his baskets were assisted last season which is one of the worst in the entire NBA among all starters. A little under 20% of his baskets were scored in transition and usually most of those are unassisted so that speaks volumes about how not being able to create his own shot.

He's a midrange shot maker, not a shot creator in any way shape or form.

 

[GatorAZ]

Dinwiddie over Vanvleet. More of a pure PG even though VanVleet can shoot really well. I think Dinwiddie would be better for the young guys.

Bender should be getting minutes backing up Ayton. He can be a change-of-pace 5 if he starts hitting shots.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

Dinwiddie over Vanvleet. More of a pure PG even though VanVleet can shoot really well. I think Dinwiddie would be better for the young guys.

Bender should be getting minutes backing up Ayton. He can be a change-of-pace 5 if he starts hitting shots.

Dinwiddie is a solid option as well if available. His stats are pretty on par with VanVleet (they have almost identical PERs last year), and his assist rate is fantastic. He obviously has much better size as well. I gave VanVleet the edge because a) it's my understanding he is a better defender than Dinwiddie and b) the floor spacing his shooting could provide is extremely valuable in an offense potentially built around Ayton.

Speaking of which, my hope is that there are not a lot of center minutes to go around. You'll notice I basically split the backup 5 minutes in my scenario between Bender and Chandler. It pretty much depends on the matchups in any given game imho

 

[Folster]

Some guys on RealGm are kicking around a trade idea based from a report that the Clips may try to package Beverly with Harris to clear salary as well as acquire youth and picks.

Harris in about to turn 26 and is the prototypical stretch 4 shooting over 40% from 3. He has moved around a lot but he seems to be improving every year. Pat Bev would give us some solid perimeter defense and veteran leadership at the point assuming he has recovered from his injury.

Another interesting fact is that both players only have 1 year left on reasonable deals so it wouldn't hinder us long term, but it maybe a risk to give up assets for what could be one-year rentals.

I'm not sure what it would take to pull on a trade, but we'd likely send out Chriss, a pick or two, and some non-guaranteed salaries or use our space to absorb the difference. I'm not sure if they'd want to take back Warren's contract.

Knight, Beverly, Okobo
Booker, Daniels, Reed
Jackson, Bridges
Harris, Warren
Ayton, Bender, Chandler

IMO, this would probably be the best case scenario for free agency/off-season trades.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

Some guys on RealGm are kicking around a trade idea based from a report that the Clips may try to package Beverly with Harris to clear salary as well as acquire youth and picks.

Do you have a source article on the report by chance? All too often some random Valley-of-the-Suns-quality writer will post random speculation and others will run with it like it has legitimacy.

This is all I could find: https://lasportshub.com/2018/06/23/los-angeles-clippers-patrick-beverley-traded/

"An interesting scenario to watch would be packaging either Jordan or Tobias Harriswith Beverley to assume a contract from another team and get some draft picks in the process. Teams looking to add star power and free up long-term contracts would benefit from acquiring Beverley and either Jordan or Harris.

While it is doubtful this specific deal would happen, something along these lines would be Beverley and Harris for Carmelo Anthony and a future first-round pick."

If that's what they are basing it off of, it's not a report but rather some random person with no more credibility than you or me posting a trade idea off the top of his head. In this instance, he wants his team to trade for Carmelo Anthony...so...yeah.

I can't imagine the Clippers would want to move Harris, but if they did I highly doubt he would come cheap. But yes...if he's available, then the Suns should have serious interest.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

Just checked RealGm out of curiosity (actually the first time I've ever gone to that site) and that was indeed the source article.

Sorry if my response came across harsh, by the way (which I could see reading it back and apologize if so). It's just a pet peeve of mine when a source article is given credibility when none is due or random speculation is cited as a report and then spreads like wildfire in the internet version of that old game telephone.

It's usually really easy to trace on NBA reporting and is harmless, but it's an epidemic with important news production and consumption as well and it makes me sad thinking about it.

 

[Errntknght]

Frazier? Tim Frazier? Walt Frazier?

Terry Rozier?

I think you could probably get Dinwiddie for Warren. To get Rozier, my guess is you'd probably have to add the Bucks pick and a little bit more, and only then if the Celtics decide to match Smart first.

Whats happened to Dinwiddie? Brooklyn was tickled with his play the last I heard. His stats are still good. His shooting isn't stellar but 6.5 ast per game(in 29 min) w. 1.6 TO is great.
He ranks above average in defense, too - measured by DPRM. I'd guess we'd have to ship something like the Mil. pick with TJ to get him.

I'd take him over Rozier, despite Terry's good performance in the playoffs - he gets twice as many assists and he scores as much w. fewer shots because he gets to the line more. Rozier is not a stellar shooter either... defensively they're a push.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

Whats happened to Dinwiddie? Brooklyn was tickled with his play the last I heard. His stats are still good. His shooting isn't stellar but 6.5 ast per game(in 29 min) w. 1.6 TO is great.
He ranks above average in defense, too - measured by DPRM. I'd guess we'd have to ship something like the Mil. pick with TJ to get him.

I'd take him over Rozier, despite Terry's good performance in the playoffs - he gets twice as many assists and he scores as much w. fewer shots because he gets to the line more. Rozier is not a stellar shooter either... defensively they're a push.

Indications earlier in the offseason were that the Nets were willing to trade Dinwiddie and most rumors made the asking price seem relatively low. Of course, that could have been rampant speculation, but that's why I thought you could trade Warren for him straight up.

However, looking into the situation further...

Dinwiddie is on the last year of his contract and they made the Dwight Howard trade, it seems, so they can clear cap space for two max contracts next offseason.

Of course, if that's the case, I guess the trade sweetener with T.J. for Dinwiddie would be taking back a contract so as not to mess up Brooklyn's cap space, which would mean taking on Allen Crabbe and his awful contract and maybe giving up Chandler or Dudley's expiring....

https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/BRK.html

That leaves us basically doubling down on Dinwiddie as our free agent signing for next year, assuming we re-sign him, as Crabbe would delay our cap space another year.

So not looking great on Dinwiddie unless I'm missing something, which is totally possible. Brooklyn is unlikely to want to trade a guy on an expiring contract unless they are getting a star or dumping Crabbe.

TL;DR: Dinwiddie was likely only available as a way to dump Mozgov's contract and clear up big cap space going into next year. Now that they've done that, he's likely not a viable trade option.

 

[DevonCardsFan]

I think Warren could be in a S&T for a FA PG. Btw Gambo has been adamant about Knight “seeing the light”. It’s certainly on purpose that he’s been riding that bandwagon for a few months. Either trade or preparing fans that he’s the PG. I’ll go with trade fluff.

Knight is absolutely GARBAGE, he is horrible I only want to see him as back up, not even back up just got rid of. He can't unlearn Stupid, all he thinks is scoring and forcing the ball has the lowest efficiency in the NBA

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Wouldn’t you want to at least talk about situations that might actually happen? Jeff Teague isn’t even on our radar. (At least I hope he isn’t)

Someone like Dinwiddie or Frazier maybe. Warren would have to be involved, but I don’t think either one of those guys could be had by an offer of just Warren.

I was just trying to use a more known commodity to generate more opinions. I don’t think many have ever seen those two guys play, so it’s diffixult for them to assign them value. That said, I think Warren actually has more valuable than dinwiddie. I think nets would have to add a little. And I’m uncertain who Frazier is.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

And Warren isn't a shot creator. Over 63% of his baskets were assisted last season which is one of the worst in the entire NBA among all starters. A little under 20% of his baskets were scored in transition and usually most of those are unassisted so that speaks volumes about how not being able to create his own shot.

He's a midrange shot maker, not a shot creator in any way shape or form.

I wasn’t arguing Warren was a shot creator. I didn’t say that. I was responding to the comment that three point shooting and defense are the two most important skills in the nba today. They aren’t. Shot creation remains number one.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

I was just trying to use a more known commodity to generate more opinions. I don’t think many have ever seen those two guys play, so it’s diffixult for them to assign them value. That said, I think Warren actually has more valuable than dinwiddie. I think nets would have to add a little. And I’m uncertain who Frazier is.

Frazier was an autocorrect. He meant Rozier.

 

[Errntknght]

Indications earlier in the offseason were that the Nets were willing to trade Dinwiddie and most rumors made the asking price seem relatively low. Of course, that could have been rampant speculation, but that's why I thought you could trade Warren for him straight up.

However, looking into the situation further...

Dinwiddie is on the last year of his contract and they made the Dwight Howard trade, it seems, so they can clear cap space for two max contracts next offseason.

Of course, if that's the case, I guess the trade sweetener with T.J. for Dinwiddie would be taking back a contract so as not to mess up Brooklyn's cap space, which would mean taking on Allen Crabbe and his awful contract and maybe giving up Chandler or Dudley's expiring....

https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/BRK.html

That leaves us basically doubling down on Dinwiddie as our free agent signing for next year, assuming we re-sign him, as Crabbe would delay our cap space another year.

So not looking great on Dinwiddie unless I'm missing something, which is totally possible. Brooklyn is unlikely to want to trade a guy on an expiring contract unless they are getting a star or dumping Crabbe.

TL;DR: Dinwiddie was likely only available as a way to dump Mozgov's contract and clear up big cap space going into next year. Now that they've done that, he's likely not a viable trade option.

Okay, I see it now. I'm doing the same thing (using the situation), in talking about VanVleet, Wright and Tyus Jones. Their teams are in financial straits and I wasn't aware of the situation w. Brooklyn - I did know Russell was returning but I don't think of him as a positive contributor...

 

[Folster]

Knight is absolutely GARBAGE, he is horrible I only want to see him as back up, not even back up just got rid of. He can't unlearn Stupid, all he thinks is scoring and forcing the ball has the lowest efficiency in the NBA

I'm willing to give him a second chance. He was a borderline All-Star with Milwaukee (albeit in the East). He was thrown onto a team with Eric Bledsoe who had already secured the starting point guard spot and had to deal with an incompetent coach in Watson.

We already know he can shoot, but if he can even be an average distributor, he'll be a big improvement from what we ran with last year.

Lastly, his recent experiences have seemed to humble him and helped him gain a new appreciation for his role and opportunity.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

Okay, I see it now. I'm doing the same thing (using the situation), in talking about VanVleet, Wright and Tyus Jones. Their teams are in financial straits and I wasn't aware of the situation w. Brooklyn - I did know Russell was returning but I don't think of him as a positive contributor...

I edited my post a lot as I was writing it because the more research I did, the more I realized Brooklyn probably doesn't view anyone on their roster as particularly important. Russell and Dinwiddie are probably both valuable as guys with some promise who have expiring contracts this year. I think they are all in on flexibilty.

I think you're on the right path with VanVleet, Wright, and Jones. A solid point guard who plays the game the right way but still has some room to grow seems like the perfect fit, and those guys might become available because of the situation.

 

[JCSunsfan]

This appears to be the year the Suns really focus on being competitive. It's easy to look at Bender as the #4 pick because that's what happened last year. However, he only played 25 mpg last year because the Suns were openly tanking and focusing on developing players, not because he earned those minutes.

I've not given up on Bender, and I think you can bring him along slowly without giving up on him. It may actually be better for his development.

Right now though, he's a 20-year-old seven footer coming off a season where he shot less than 39% from the field, had a PER of 7.11, and often looked completely lost. He's not a guy you can play big minutes on a competitive team. Yet.

He shot 39% from the field because most of his shots were threes. His Efg% was .508

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

He shot 39% from the field because most of his shots were threes.

Yes and no. He actually shot a dismal 42.6% from the field on two pointers last year!

To put that in perspective, only 6 qualifying power forwards shot below 50% from 2 last year, and they all shot better than Bender.

The only guy in his stratosphere is Carmelo, who shot 43.7% from 2.

None of the 35 qualifying centers were close to as bad from 2 either. Of course, this stat punishes bigs who are more likely to stretch the floor and take longer shots, but even accounting for that Bender was awful.

Even throwing in guards, of the 139 players who qualified (and to your point, Bender doesn't due to lack of volume), nobody was as inefficient from inside the arc as Dragan. Doesn't mean he can't significantly improve, but right now it's a huge problem.

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/...twoPointFieldGoalPct/seasontype/2/order/false

 

[JCSunsfan]

And Warren isn't a shot creator. Over 63% of his baskets were assisted last season which is one of the worst in the entire NBA among all starters. A little under 20% of his baskets were scored in transition and usually most of those are unassisted so that speaks volumes about how not being able to create his own shot.

He's a midrange shot maker, not a shot creator in any way shape or form.

It’s funny how that is a negative stat to you. TJ’s role in the offense is to receive and score. That is not necessarily indicative of his ability to create his own shot. Just because a player does one thing well and a lot does not mean it’s the only thing he can do.