Gambo Said this today about Doncic .........

[elindholm]

The argument was that we were most likely to get the 4th and that isn’t true.

It depends on what's being compared. If the question is, "Are the Suns most likely to pick #1, #2, #3, or #4?" the answer is that they are most likely to pick #4. If the question is, "Are the Suns more likely to pick at #4, or at a spot higher than #4?" the answer is that they are more likely to pick higher.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

It depends on what's being compared. If the question is, "Are the Suns most likely to pick #1, #2, #3, or #4?" the answer is that they are most likely to pick #4. If the question is, "Are the Suns more likely to pick at #4, or at a spot higher than #4?" the answer is that they are more likely to pick higher.

I could argue that #4 is still the least likely even in that scenario. The reason is because of the way the drawing works. First they draw to determine who is first, then 2nd, the 3rd. Thus we would have to make it past all three of those selections before we would have the #4 pick. Granted this is all pointless as we are getting the #1 pick.

 

[elindholm]

I could argue that #4 is still the least likely even in that scenario. The reason is because of the way the drawing works. First they draw to determine who is first, then 2nd, the 3rd. Thus we would have to make it past all three of those selections before we would have the #4 pick.

I assume you're sort of joking, but the order in which the picks are drawn is already represented in the probability outcomes.

Here's another way to think about it.

The pick for #1 takes place.
25% of the time, the Suns get it.
75% of the time, someone else gets it and we move on.

The pick for #2 takes place.
The Suns have 250 chances, but the total number remaining in the pool is unknown, because we don't know who got (meaning, who will get) the #1 pick. Averaged over all possibilities, the Suns' total probability of getting the #2 pick, if we get here, is 28.7%. Since we go down this path in only 75% of all scenarios, the Suns' overall probability of getting the #2 pick is .75*.287 = 21.5%.

71.3% of the time that we get to #2 (100% - 28.7%), someone else gets #2 and we move on. The Suns will be in the pool for the #3 pick in 100%-25%-21.5% = 53.5% of all draws. (You can also calculate it as .75*.713 = 53.5%.)

The pick for #3 takes place.
Again, we don't know what the competition is. For example, if the top two picks went to the second and third lottery seeds -- whose virtual lottery balls would now be removed from the system -- the Suns chances of winning the draw for #3 could be as high as 250/(1000-199-156) = 38.8%, with their closest competition being the #4 lottery seed and their mere 119 virtual balls. On the other hand, if (by some great unlikelihood) the top two picks go to the two lowest lottery seeds, the Suns' chances of winning the draw for #3 are only 250/(1000-6-5) = 25.3%, barely any better than their odds of winning #1 in the first place, because they are still up against the other big guns in the pool.

Averaged over all possibilities, the Suns' chances of winning the draw for #3, if we get here, are 33.3%. Since we'll get to this point only 53.5% of the time, their overall chances of winning the #3 pick are .535*.333 = 17.8%.

The other 66.7% of the time that the Suns reach the draw for #3, they will lose it and be awarded #4. This will happen in .535*.667 = 35.7% of all cases.

 

[WildBB]

I heard him say this a couple of months ago. I compare Gambo to a child who wants to impress people by claiming he knows things they don't. I think he gets his "inside" info from local beat writers who probably text him right before they report it. How does Gambo know about Doncic's personality? Does he follow him on Twitter or Instagram? Radio guys do nothing more than what we do on this board, they provide their opinion, they speculate and interview guys every now and then. The difference is they get paid for it. Take anything local radio guys say with a grain of salt.

And talk about the same stuff over and over again, ad nausium. Every one gotta make a living. Even the radio hosts. They must get bored.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I assume you're sort of joking, but the order in which the picks are drawn is already represented in the probability outcomes.

Here's another way to think about it.

The pick for #1 takes place.
25% of the time, the Suns get it.
75% of the time, someone else gets it and we move on.

The pick for #2 takes place.
The Suns have 250 chances, but the total number remaining in the pool is unknown, because we don't know who got (meaning, who will get) the #1 pick. Averaged over all possibilities, the Suns' total probability of getting the #2 pick, if we get here, is 28.7%. Since we go down this path in only 75% of all scenarios, the Suns' overall probability of getting the #2 pick is .75*.287 = 21.5%.

71.3% of the time that we get to #2 (100% - 28.7%), someone else gets #2 and we move on. The Suns will be in the pool for the #3 pick in 100%-25%-21.5% = 53.5% of all draws. (You can also calculate it as .75*.713 = 53.5%.)

The pick for #3 takes place.
Again, we don't know what the competition is. For example, if the top two picks went to the second and third lottery seeds -- whose virtual lottery balls would now be removed from the system -- the Suns chances of winning the draw for #3 could be as high as 250/(1000-199-156) = 38.8%, with their closest competition being the #4 lottery seed and their mere 119 virtual balls. On the other hand, if (by some great unlikelihood) the top two picks go to the two lowest lottery seeds, the Suns' chances of winning the draw for #3 are only 250/(1000-6-5) = 25.3%, barely any better than their odds of winning #1 in the first place, because they are still up against the other big guns in the pool.

Averaged over all possibilities, the Suns' chances of winning the draw for #3, if we get here, are 33.3%. Since we'll get to this point only 53.5% of the time, their overall chances of winning the #3 pick are .535*.333 = 17.8%.

The other 66.7% of the time that the Suns reach the draw for #3, they will lose it and be awarded #4. This will happen in .535*.667 = 35.7% of all cases.

Way too much math for me..

Also I assumed the reason the percentage goes down to 21.5% for the #2 pick because we would have less combinations for the 2nd pick. Is that not the case? Because otherwise you would think if we still had 250 combinations that the odds would only increase for the picks following #1.

Edit: after further deciphering your previous comment I realized you answered this question.

 

[Raindog]

The easist way to understand it is recognizing that it represents the Suns "odds vs. the field." We have reasonably/incrementally better odds vs. any other individual team, but (much) lower odds vs. the cumulative other 15 teams in the lottery.

 

[DevonCardsFan]

There are plenty of concerns with Doncic, but his mental state is not one of them. I'd like to hear the context.

I bash Doncic but have been reading and watching everything I can find and I havent heard one word about this lol. GAMBO making stuff up, hes a hack

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

The easist way to understand it is recognizing that it represents the Suns "odds vs. the field." We have reasonably/incrementally better odds vs. any other individual team, but (much) lower odds vs. the cumulative other 15 teams in the lottery.

Other 13 teams*, but yes I understand it now.

Actually depending on how the first two picks go we could have relatively close odds to the remaining teams. If the 2 and 3 seeds take the first two picks our odds for the 3rd pick is close to 40%. Anyways we are very likely to get a top 3 pick and have about a coin flip of a chance at the top 2. It's the best of any other team so there is no reason to simply assume we will get the 4th pick.

 

[DevonCardsFan]

Other 13 teams*, but yes I understand it now.

Actually depending on how the first two picks go we could have relatively close odds to the remaining teams. If the 2 and 3 seeds take the first two picks our odds for the 3rd pick is close to 40%. Anyways we are very likely to get a top 3 pick and have about a coin flip of a chance at the top 2. It's the best of any other team so there is no reason to simply assume we will get the 4th pick.

I hope Tankathon sucks, They always have the Suns @4 I do it all the time it was 4th pick 6 out of the 10 times I just tried

 

[Mainstreet]

I prefer to look at the cumulative totals for the Suns getting a top three pick as 64% before any selections are made.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I hope Tankathon sucks, They always have the Suns @4 I do it all the time it was 4th pick 6 out of the 10 times I just tried

I do wonder what their formula is for determining order. If they simply plug in the odds prior to any picks being determined than the numbers are going to be skewed more heavily towards the 4th pick. If they factor in increasing odds when other teams with a high number of combinations jumps to number one and number two than we probably wouldn't get #4 so often.

 

[DevonCardsFan]

I do wonder what their formula is for determining order. If they simply plug in the odds prior to any picks being determined than the numbers are going to be skewed more heavily towards the 4th pick. If they factor in increasing odds when other teams with a high number of combinations jumps to number one and number two than we probably wouldn't get #4 so often.

My thoughts exactly, just been preparing myself for the 4th pick until otherwise lol

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

My thoughts exactly, just been preparing myself for the 4th pick until otherwise lol

Small sample, but in the 25 drafts thus far (under the current format) the worst team got the #1 pick four times, #2 pick nine times, #3 pick six times and #4 pick six times. That's a top 2 pick 13 times and the #4 pick just 6 times.

Even smaller sample now, but in the 14 drafts since it has moved to 14 teams the worst team has gotten the #1 pick four times, #2 pick six times, #3 pick once and the #4 pick three times. The way it has been playing out under the current format with the current amount of teams has worked out quite well for the worst team in the league and I think that is why teams are starting to tank more heavily. That and it is why the NBA is changing the current format because it is working too well for tanking teams.

 

[DevonCardsFan]

Small sample, but in the 25 drafts thus far (under the current format) the worst team got the #1 pick four times, #2 pick nine times, #3 pick six times and #4 pick six times. That's a top 2 pick 13 times and the #4 pick just 6 times.

Even smaller sample now, but in the 14 drafts since it has moved to 14 teams the worst team has gotten the #1 pick four times, #2 pick six times, #3 pick once and the #4 pick three times. The way it has been playing out under the current format with the current amount of teams has worked out quite well for the worst team in the league and I think that is why teams are starting to tank more heavily. That and it is why the NBA is changing the current format because it is working too well for tanking teams.

Thanks those numbers, make me feel alot better! Come on #1!

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I call Gambo the Mouth of Sarvermon for a reason. Sarver and Gambo are best buddies and that is why anything Suns related from Gambo is probably from Sarver.

Consider this no chance we draft Doncic over Ayton or Bagley

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I call Gambo the Mouth of Sarvermon for a reason. Sarver and Gambo are best buddies and that is why anything Suns related from Gambo is probably from Sarver.

Consider this no chance we draft Doncic over Ayton or Bagley

If that is all true than you could easily argue the opposite. Maybe the Suns really like Doncic and want teams to think that they would pass in case they don't get the #1 pick. Thus by making it seem as though we are not interested they might stop teams from trading in front of us to get Doncic. I honestly doubt it one way or the other.

 

[pokerface]

I agree. The more I read and learn about Doncic, the more I like him. He has always been motivated to play at the next level.

I'm impressed with his advanced skills at a young age, his overall across the board production, and showing some clutchness already. He smells like a winner.

Ayton and Bagley are very fine players too and would have no problem if we pick them. I just don't want Doncic to be easily discounted.

 

[Cheesebeef]

even as a Doncic skeptic, this smells like BS to me.

 

[elindholm]

If that is all true than you could easily argue the opposite. Maybe the Suns really like Doncic and want teams to think that they would pass in case they don't get the #1 pick. Thus by making it seem as though we are not interested they might stop teams from trading in front of us to get Doncic. I honestly doubt it one way or the other.

Historically, the Suns have not been good at disguising their intentions during the draft.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

Historically, the Suns have not been good at disguising their intentions during the draft.

Historically under McD they have kept nearly everything under wraps until it is made official. This is almost certainly hot air from Gambo.

 

[pokerface]

I don't expect the suns to take Doncic #1 but at number #2 I hope they strongly consider him...at #3 they better take him!

 

[elindholm]

Historically under McD they have kept nearly everything under wraps until it is made official. This is almost certainly hot air from Gambo.

And yet most of the media knew who they were taking days before the draft.

 

[Raindog]

I don't expect the suns to take Doncic #1 but at number #2 I hope they strongly consider him...at #3 they better take him!

I am guessing that is the way it will go. If they get either 1 or 2, they will go Ayton, then Bagley. If they get 3 and Doncic is still there, that is who they take. If he's not, then it will be whoever is left over between Ayton/Bagley. You can pretty much book it, I think - barring the unforeseen.

If they get 4, then that is where anybody's guess comes in to play.

 

[Sun Devil Mania]

Ok ........ Is anybody listening to Gambo talking about Doncic today? Said that he's talented but has a high risk factor associated with him . He also said that the talent he is playing against overseas is a lot weaker than in the past. He's full of himself and said that Doncic is an "entitled brat". Is extremely immature. Cries during the game and that his teammates can't stand him. I would like to find out where or who he is getting this info. from. Like most of you guys, I follow the draft closely and try to get as much info. as I can about the players that will be in the draft. With that being said, I have not seen or heard of any of these harsh statements that he is making about Doncic. I would love for him to be drafted by the Suns if they get a top two pick! I think he would fit perfectly with Booker and Jackson. The modern day game has changed and these three players as the young core for the Suns could be very special!

 

[Errntknght]

And yet most of the media knew who they were taking days before the draft.

I hope you don't expect us to believe the media knew and withheld that information from their readers/listeners for days. Last year the board concensus was that we would take Jackson with #4 if he was there and there were indications from who we worked out of who we would not pick but I don't recall the media being any more certain in advance than we were. IIRC, the strongest bit of info we had was Jackson skipping a w.o. with the Celts, who picked before us.