Geno Smith: Reach or no reach?

[Cbus cardsfan]

Since Geno Smith has regularly been named as the likely Cards pick at 7, I have noticed something. Almost all the mocks have a consistent theme with the top 10-15 overall ranked players filling out the top of the draft. For example, Chance Warmack may be #3 on some sites but as low as #13 on others but still a solid top 10 prospect overall. The one exception is Geno Smith. I looked at numerous different, what I consider reputable, draft sites to gauge where Smith fell in the overall rankings and there is almost zero consensus as to where he rates. The one thing to be concluded, unless your Gil Brandt, he is overwhelmingly not considered a top 10 prospect, much less a top 7.

Walterfootball = 35
National Football Post = 49
CBS Draft = 8
Kiper and McShay = both outside top 20
Great Blue Draft = 16
Draft Tek = 17
Draft Countdown = 13
Draftgeek = 37
New Nfl Draft = 13
Gil Brandt = 4
Bucky Brooks(NFLN) = 8
KFFL = Don't have exact rating but says barely 1st round talent
FFToolbox = 10
Draft Ace = 56

However, he is almost universally considered the #1 QB prospect.

 

[Jetstream Green]

REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEACH at the number 7 spot to me, but he has the tools and accuracy if he could only not fall to freaking pieces when the pocket is not clean.

 

[bankybruce]

I am not sure if he is and I am not sure if there has been such a non-consensus of a player like him in recent memory.

But, let me ask you this, if the draft was done over again and these players were in the same draft, where would JaMarcus Russell, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson and Ryan Leaf get drafted.

If Kiem and Bruce think Geno is the best QB in the draft and our QBOTF, then is taking him at 7 a reach when odd of making it out of the top 15 are slim?

 

[Shane]

I am not sure if he is and I am not sure if there has been such a non-consensus of a player like him in recent memory.

But, let me ask you this, if the draft was done over again and these players were in the same draft, where would JaMarcus Russell, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson and Ryan Leaf get drafted.

If Kiem and Bruce think Geno is the best QB in the draft and our QBOTF, then is taking him at 7 a reach when odd of making it out of the top 15 are slim?

Yup. It doesn't matter what those publications say. If they believe him to be the #1 Qb and "FRANCHISE" Qb worthy you take him. Especially at that position. QB's are valued higher regardless due to their overall impact on the game.

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

Huge reach, any other year he is a 2nd rounder at best...The QB this draft is on par with Tim Couch/Akli Smith Draft...

 

[DutchmanAZ]

Huge reach

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

Huge reach, any other year he is a 2nd rounder at best...The QB this draft is on par with Tim Couch/Akli Smith Draft...

...save for McNabb, ofcourse...and Dude is not McNabb.

 

[john h]

Since Geno Smith has regularly been named as the likely Cards pick at 7, I have noticed something. Almost all the mocks have a consistent theme with the top 10-15 overall ranked players filling out the top of the draft. For example, Chance Warmack may be #3 on some sites but as low as #13 on others but still a solid top 10 prospect overall. The one exception is Geno Smith. I looked at numerous different, what I consider reputable, draft sites to gauge where Smith fell in the overall rankings and there is almost zero consensus as to where he rates. The one thing to be concluded, unless your Gil Brandt, he is overwhelmingly not considered a top 10 prospect, much less a top 7.

Walterfootball = 35
National Football Post = 49
CBS Draft = 8
Kiper and McShay = both outside top 20
Great Blue Draft = 16
Draft Tek = 17
Draft Countdown = 13
Draftgeek = 37
New Nfl Draft = 13
Gil Brandt = 4
Bucky Brooks(NFLN) = 8
KFFL = Don't have exact rating but says barely 1st round talent
FFToolbox = 10
Draft Ace = 56

However, he is almost universally considered the #1 QB prospect.

I am not a big time Geno fan but I do not think it gets out of the top 10. I think it was on the latest Kipper board I read this morning that he had him going to some team in the top 5. Cannot be sure it was the Kipper Board but it was one of the major boards updates. Who will be the star of this QB group no one really knows but one thing most people know is our number one need is a QB. By the way I am not part of your universe as I am a Homer for Tyler Wilson.

 

[Chopper0080]

I would rather trade up from round 2 if he falls than draft him at #7. Reach.

 

[desertdawg]

I would rather trade up from round 2 if he falls than draft him at #7. Reach.

Yup

 

[bg7brd]

What is the difference in talent between Smith and someone we can get at 39? I say wait or move up into the end of round 1. In my perfect world we would trade back 7 or 8 spots and get Jonathan Cooper and use the extra pick to move up to get our QB.

 

[crisper57]

I'm going to say he is a slight reach at 7. I think he is just out of Top 10 talent in THIS YEAR'S draft. Any other year, he'd be a 2nd rounder, but with the premium put on QB's and the relatively low risk of drafting now that we have a rookie wage scale, his value is up this year.

 

[Totally_Red]

Based on talent he's a reach in the top 10 IMO. But quarterbacks always seem to be over-drafted because of the position they play. If you look back over the years, I bet at least 50% of top ten drafted quarterbacks do not live up to expectations. Geno has a chance to be a decent NFL quarterback, but I don't see anybody saying he's a potential franchise NFL quarterback, and there's also a very good chance he could be another Jason Campbell, e.g. a borderline starter-solid backup.

I hope the Cardinals don't blow a rare opportunity to draft a potential pro-bowl offensive lineman by 'reaching' for Geno. He's a good kid and I wouldn't mind drafting him in the bottom of the first, but definitely not at #7 overall.

 

[JeffGollin]

It is. We shouldn't.

 

[DRVNFAST]

Huge reach

This ^

 

[Solar7]

He's maybe a tiny reach, but one that has to be made. I am absolutely terrified of any QB in this draft not named Smith or Barkley. (Maybe Tyler Wilson. Maybe.)

Like it or not, this guy is going to grade out as the top QB on the board, and therefore will not slip into the 20s where it is possible for a team to move up from the second without signficant ammunition. If we want the top QB on the board, we have to pull the trigger at #7. His talent may not be 100% commensurate to that spot, but it's awfully close.

I hear the argument a lot that we should wait until the second round to pick a QB, or move up from the second to pick a guy... if we make that high of a commitment either way, we're not going to be drafting a QB in the first round next year anyways. Are people really ready to ride and die with Glennon/Nassib/EJ Manuel for the next 2-3 years? I'm sure not.

 

[jmt]

This ^

This too.

 

[cardpa]

Since there is no consensus on Smith I say he's a reach. Too many negatives have been printed about him to consider him a #7 pick. Yes there have been plenty of positives however even the positives and negatives are in conflict depending who you listen to.

I just don't see using the #7 pick on Smith when you can almost assuredly take a lineman at #7 and be deemed pretty safe and know they will be an immediate contributor. I always expect first round picks to be immediate contributors and if they need to sit and learn or develop for a year or two then to me it's a wasted pick.

You can just as easily find a developmental player in round 2 or 3 and if they fail it costs you a lot less.

 

[crisper57]

If Geno and one of the top OL are on the board at 7, it is a no-brainer that we take the OL. However, if all the linemen are gone, I think Geno is the pick.

 

[Stout]

I'm really torn on him, and not sure if I want us to take him at 7 or not.

Here's what I'm not torn about--the idea of trading back up in the 1st to take our QB. People keep saying this like it's guaranteed to happen, and like it won't cost a lot. The problem is, our coaching staff and FO will fixate on what QB they want--then they have to pay the draft picks to move up, and ALSO hope that the right QB is available for where we want to try to trade up to. It isn't a given, and it would cost us picks, and I do NOT want us to go that route.

 

[crisper57]

I'm really torn on him, and not sure if I want us to take him at 7 or not.

Here's what I'm not torn about--the idea of trading back up in the 1st to take our QB. People keep saying this like it's guaranteed to happen, and like it won't cost a lot. The problem is, our coaching staff and FO will fixate on what QB they want--then they have to pay the draft picks to move up, and ALSO hope that the right QB is available for where we want to try to trade up to. It isn't a given, and it would cost us picks, and I do NOT want us to go that route.

Plus, we have too many needs to be trading up anywhere. If anything, we trade back, but I don't see a scenario where we give up picks this year.

 

[football karma]

I would much rather have Barkley

there, I said it

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

Based on talent he's a reach in the top 10 IMO. But quarterbacks always seem to be over-drafted because of the position they play. If you look back over the years, I bet at least 50% of top ten drafted quarterbacks do not live up to expectations. Geno has a chance to be a decent NFL quarterback, but I don't see anybody saying he's a potential franchise NFL quarterback, and there's also a very good chance he could be another Jason Campbell, e.g. a borderline starter-solid backup.

I hope the Cardinals don't blow a rare opportunity to draft a potential pro-bowl offensive lineman by 'reaching' for Geno. He's a good kid and I wouldn't mind drafting him in the bottom of the first, but definitely not at #7 overall.

It would be in line with this team and will prove is Keim truly is different.

Reach for Levi and pass on RB.

Reach for QB to pass on big time OL.

 

[crisper57]

I would much rather have Barkley

there, I said it

We already had one Captain Checkdown QB this decade. Not ready for another.

 

[football karma]

We already had one Captain Checkdown QB this decade. Not ready for another.

and we already have had at least three "miss the wide open receiver running down the field" QB as well. Why draft another at #7?