honest answer: no
it's easy for him to say he wants to stay right now. but i think a confluence of factors will force him into the draft. i believe there's a strong possibility that harbaugh will leave for greener pastures. stanford had an unreal season, it'll be difficult for a non-football-machine school like stanford to repeat that success. there's a TON more cheddar being selected 1st in the draft that at any other position. no matter how much a kid loves football, they are a fool to pass up the chance to be the #1 overall selection in the draft. that's just lost money. the most recent qb to do so lost a ton in the exchange, dropping from reportedly being considered a lock for #1 to #10 (that's right, our very own matty). so, for the CHANCE to draft luck i'd have been happy ending up with the #1 overall. but that's a pipedream now. now we'll have to settle for #3 or #4 and have to greatly overpay a corner or subpar passrusher (don't see any peppers or mario williams out there).
FWIW Harbaughs' brother, the Ravens coach, came out the other day and said he thinks Jim is staying at Stanford or at least wants to.
"I think he wants to stay at Stanford, I think he’d love to stay there, but then again, you just have to see what happens. He’s not the kind of guy that’s going to make any kind of commitment until he’s ready to make a commitment. I think his commitment right now is having a baby and winning the Orange Bowl. So, we’ll see what happens."
Not exactly a he's not leaving statement obviously but it does seem like if Harbaugh stays, Luck will play one more year which is what I'd been hearing all along.
Of course that just means if you want Luck then we have to suck even worse next season, or trade for it and the best chip we would have would be THIS years pick, which we of course need to use for next season.