How Great is the 2017 draft class?

[Russ Smith]

It counts as usage if it is a turnover or an assist. Hockey assists are about the most difficult thing to tally and is why they aren't used. It can already be confusing as to what is or isn't an assist to begin with and then trying to determine what is or isn't a hockey assist would be damn near impossible IMO. Lonzo does take some chances with the ball and thus per play used he is going to turn the ball over more than Fultz, but what I find truly impressive about Lonzo is that he averages the points and assists that he does with that usage rate.

Right but follow my point, you get a defensive rebound and in the air pass the ball to a teammate. You're clearly not getting an assist there unless the pass is 85 feet in the air, which he actually did do in one of the OOC games. So the only way doing that registers in usage is if that pass is a turnover, which it almost never is.

Those plays though directly contribute to UCLA's offense, they push the ball ahead before the defense is set, and Lonzo is doing that more than virtually anybody else playing college ball.

I understand that hockey assists are hard to track not saying otherwise I'm just saying usage doesn't work well for Lonzo Ball because it doesn't track some of things he does that contribute to UCLA winning games.

Usage IMO is more meaningful in the NBA where it's much more of a half court game. a guy like Lonzo who routinely gives the ball up in the backcourt to advance it, doesn't get accounted for the same.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I understand that hockey assists are hard to track not saying otherwise I'm just saying usage doesn't work well for Lonzo Ball because it doesn't track some of things he does that contribute to UCLA winning games.

I know the basketball world has turned to analytics and that it's considered caveman to say, just watch the game, but with Ball, that is the best answer. Just watch the game and IF you understand the game you can't help but be impressed, stats be damned. It's incredible the way he positively impacts almost every play and often times does so without earning a mark in the box score. I can't say for sure that he'll continue to have that same level of impact at the next level but I sure like his chances.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I know the basketball world has turned to analytics and that it's considered caveman to say, just watch the game, but with Ball, that is the best answer. Just watch the game and IF you understand the game you can't help but be impressed, stats be damned. It's incredible the way he positively impacts almost every play and often times does so without earning a mark in the box score. I can't say for sure that he'll continue to have that same level of impact at the next level but I sure like his chances.

Thing is that stats very much back up his good play though. Sure there are some stats that don't like him very much, but most stats would suggest he is the best player in college. His efficiency numbers are through the roof as are his advanced stats as well. For instance his WS/40 is awesome at .226. His direct competition in this draft are far lower than that (Fultz .180 and Jackson .184). There are many other numbers where he is far ahead as well.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I miss the days when we used to just watch basketball players and know they were good or sucked.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I miss the days when we used to just watch basketball players and know they were good or sucked.

Yeah, incredible when you think that the rules change that led to the one and done era was a league attempt to prevent the very situation it created.

 

[DWKB]

Yeah, incredible when you think that the rules change that led to the one and done era was a league attempt to prevent the very situation it created.

How so? I always thought it was to gauge players against better, more standardized competition vs various HS competitions for better evaluation.

 

[Russ Smith]

How so? I always thought it was to gauge players against better, more standardized competition vs various HS competitions for better evaluation.

I think it was largely to protect the NBA from itself. I forget the kids name something Smith, first round pick right out of HS, complete disaster, he was essentially the poster child for the age limit rule. The NBA essentially said as long as these kids are draft eligible we have to take them because if we don't someone else will and if the kid turns out great we're fired for passing on him. So now they get 1 year to evaluate them before they make the decision.

The next few years will be fascinating in this regard. Next year there's Ayton and Duval and Michael Porter who I think virtually everyone agrees would be high first round picks if they were allowed to go straight to the NBA. Duval probably not in a lottery since he's a PG but Ayton and Porter would go very high if draft eligible. The following year we have Marvin Bagley, Zion Williamson and some others. All of these kids without the rule would probably strongly consider going NBA right out of HS. The NBA has already said they're not removing the rule so it'll be fascinating to see if kids continue the 8 months in college stuff or if they start turning pro in the D league or overseas like Ferguson did.

 

[GatorAZ]

Aquire another pick on the teens. Try to get an upside kid like Giles or Ferguson.

 

[slinslin]

I don't really believe that, Jason Kidd had

I miss the days when we used to just watch basketball players and know they were good or sucked.

Yeah like in 1983 where everyone knew it.

 

[AzStevenCal]

How so? I always thought it was to gauge players against better, more standardized competition vs various HS competitions for better evaluation.

I think it was largely to protect the NBA from itself. I forget the kids name something Smith, first round pick right out of HS, complete disaster, he was essentially the poster child for the age limit rule. The NBA essentially said as long as these kids are draft eligible we have to take them because if we don't someone else will and if the kid turns out great we're fired for passing on him. So now they get 1 year to evaluate them before they make the decision.

The next few years will be fascinating in this regard. Next year there's Ayton and Duval and Michael Porter who I think virtually everyone agrees would be high first round picks if they were allowed to go straight to the NBA. Duval probably not in a lottery since he's a PG but Ayton and Porter would go very high if draft eligible. The following year we have Marvin Bagley, Zion Williamson and some others. All of these kids without the rule would probably strongly consider going NBA right out of HS. The NBA has already said they're not removing the rule so it'll be fascinating to see if kids continue the 8 months in college stuff or if they start turning pro in the D league or overseas like Ferguson did.

Yeah, that's what I had thought too and was what I was referring to in my earlier post. But now, years later, I can't say for sure whether that was just water-cooler talk or if it was ever officially stated.

 

[DWKB]

I think it was largely to protect the NBA from itself. I forget the kids name something Smith, first round pick right out of HS, complete disaster, he was essentially the poster child for the age limit rule. The NBA essentially said as long as these kids are draft eligible we have to take them because if we don't someone else will and if the kid turns out great we're fired for passing on him. So now they get 1 year to evaluate them before they make the decision.

The next few years will be fascinating in this regard. Next year there's Ayton and Duval and Michael Porter who I think virtually everyone agrees would be high first round picks if they were allowed to go straight to the NBA. Duval probably not in a lottery since he's a PG but Ayton and Porter would go very high if draft eligible. The following year we have Marvin Bagley, Zion Williamson and some others. All of these kids without the rule would probably strongly consider going NBA right out of HS. The NBA has already said they're not removing the rule so it'll be fascinating to see if kids continue the 8 months in college stuff or if they start turning pro in the D league or overseas like Ferguson did.

Aren't we saying the same thing?

The NBA protects itself by evaluating the talent against a more standardized competition vs the highly variable HS leagues across the nation.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Aquire another pick on the teens. Try to get an upside kid like Giles or Ferguson.

I think I'd rather go after someone like Anunoby over Ferguson if we have that second pick. Especially if we're trading PJ or letting him walk this offseason.

 

[Russ Smith]

Aren't we saying the same thing?

The NBA protects itself by evaluating the talent against a more standardized competition vs the highly variable HS leagues across the nation.

Yeah I just meant I think the NBA did it because they needed to protect themselves from themselves. I don't think they gave a crap about the kids coming out of HS that failed, they just didn't want the league to look bad anymore for taking kids like that.

So to protect teams and GM's, they instituted the age limit rule I don't think it had anything at all to do with the kids.

So we agree I was just saying I think the impetus for the rule was protecting themselves from looking stupid.

Now I'm going nuts tryign to remember that kid Smith's first name.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Now I'm going nuts tryign to remember that kid Smith's first name.

I remember the Spurs wasting a pick on a high school kid named Smith (Leon IIRC) but I didn't think that was much of a big deal as it was late in the round. And then there's Josh Smith, who went in the middle of the round and with a few years of college might even have become the player his talent suggested he'd be.

 

[slinslin]

I think I'd rather go after someone like Anunoby over Ferguson if we have that second pick. Especially if we're trading PJ or letting him walk this offseason.

I doubt Anuboy is a first round pick, injury and very little offensive skills.

Giles is the typical early 2nd/very late first round pick player. Rough season, injury red flags but size, youth, potential and top highschool prospect.

This draft is far from special when you get past the top 7.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I doubt Anuboy is a first round pick, injury and very little offensive skills.

Giles is the typical early 2nd/very late first round pick player. Rough season, injury red flags but size, youth, potential and top highschool prospect.

This draft is far from special when you get past the top 7.

If Giles checks out medically I highly doubt he will make it to the end of the round let alone the 2nd, probably late teens at the worst IMO. I don't know about Anunoby, he might slip to that range. His mediocre offense is a concern but he's got a freak body, the kind the NBA loves, and can change games with his defense.

 

[Russ Smith]

I remember the Spurs wasting a pick on a high school kid named Smith (Leon IIRC) but I didn't think that was much of a big deal as it was late in the round. And then there's Josh Smith, who went in the middle of the round and with a few years of college might even have become the player his talent suggested he'd be.

Yes thank you Leon Smith. He was traded to the Mavs but never played for them. He had this absolutely insane childhood, abandoned by his parents, raised as a ward of the state in Illinois.

I had to google him, his first practice with the Mavs he left early essentially walked out. He was suspended multiple times, arrested twice, fired 2 agents and eventualy his contract was suspended because he attempted suicide(half a bottle of aspirin) and was hospitalized for a month. He was really the impetus for the age limit rule.

He eventually played like 14 games for the Hawks and that was it and played overseas. David Stern publicly denied Smith was the reason for the rule change he said they'd been considering it since 98 and it was mainly opposition from the players union that delayed it being implemented but several people familiar with the negotiations said Smith was directly cited by multiple people arguing in favor of the rule, which finally was adopted in 2005 5-6 years after Smith was drafted.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Yes thank you Leon Smith. He was traded to the Mavs but never played for them. He had this absolutely insane childhood, abandoned by his parents, raised as a ward of the state in Illinois.

I had to google him, his first practice with the Mavs he left early essentially walked out. He was suspended multiple times, arrested twice, fired 2 agents and eventualy his contract was suspended because he attempted suicide(half a bottle of aspirin) and was hospitalized for a month. He was really the impetus for the age limit rule.

He eventually played like 14 games for the Hawks and that was it and played overseas. David Stern publicly denied Smith was the reason for the rule change he said they'd been considering it since 98 and it was mainly opposition from the players union that delayed it being implemented but several people familiar with the negotiations said Smith was directly cited by multiple people arguing in favor of the rule, which finally was adopted in 2005 5-6 years after Smith was drafted.

I had forgotten much of this and I don't at all remember the Stern comments. Interesting.

 

[Russ Smith]

I had forgotten much of this and I don't at all remember the Stern comments. Interesting.

He was directly asked if Leon Smith was the poster child and said ''It would be unfair to call Leon a poster child for anything but Leon,'' David Stern, the N.B.A. commissioner, said. ''All of these young men are individuals. But I remain convinced, in a broader context, that we need to disincentivize players who have other options from coming into the N.B.A. too young.''

Found it in a NY Times article on him. Pretty crazy story.

 

[GatorAZ]

Never been high on Tatum but he was excellent tonight. 6-7 from vs Virginia... Not sure how he'd fit here though,

I need to start watching more of the 4-8 guys in case we do something stupid like win some games.

 

[slinslin]

Never been high on Tatum but he was excellent tonight. 6-7 from vs Virginia... Not sure how he'd fit here though,

I need to start watching more of the 4-8 guys in case we do something stupid like win some games.

Yes he would.

Tatum is a great talent and he is projects extremely well. Great touch, great freethrow shooter, good athlete, great size, rebounds, blocks, steals and gets some assists.

I have Tatum 3rd or 4th on my board infront of Jackson.

 

[pokerface]

Let's say we ended up with a #5 pick... Would we want to trade up to a top two pick?

 

[slinslin]

No way too expensive and the top6-7 prospects are on the same tier.

 

[pokerface]

No way too expensive and the top6-7 prospects are on the same tier.

That's good to know! I don't follow college ball like a lot of you guys that's why I asked. I didn't know where the drop off occurred and was wondering if we should trade up ..Guess not.

 

[AzStevenCal]

That's good to know! I don't follow college ball like a lot of you guys that's why I asked. I didn't know where the drop off occurred and was wondering if we should trade up ..Guess not.

Nobody does. Trust me, it is far from finalized. Conference tournaments followed by March Madness will change opinions almost daily. Most of the sites seem to call it a 2 or 3 person draft at the top followed by a 3 to 8 player group of next tier players.