How Great is the 2017 draft class?

[GatorAZ]

Dennis Smith Jr continues to impress. The tools are there but any prior injuries scare me a bit being a Suns fan. If Fox could shoot even a lick he'd be up there too. Hes just as fast as Wall was.

 

[Errntknght]

Transformational? What does that mean? Transcendent I can get excited about, but I don't know what transformational is suppose to indicate.

I'm the other way 'round on those two words. 'Trancendental' is clearly vague hype, but 'transformational' means he will transform the team - of course he could possibly trigger a negative transformation so we have to understand a positive transformation is what is intended.

 

[Russ Smith]

My comments, Lonzo is a one and done he's said it repeatedly so don't even think he's staying to play with his brothers.

The release on the shot is unusual, like Kevin Martin but lower, but so far it's going in. UCLA tried to tweak the shot this summer, he shot poorly in Australia and went back to his normal shot but he turned his feet more(to the left) so his shoulder and elbow align better. So he has tweaked it since HS. he's a better athlete than people realize, hes' still learning defense after that system they played in HS but his instincts are off the chartes he's constantly deflecting passes getting steals and blocks. My biggest concern is his habit of landing on one leg after rebounds, hes' already tweaked the left knee a bit, been wearing a brace of late. He has no midrange, 3's or dunks right now but his passing is off the charts good. He's like Kidd in that many of his best passes aren't even assists they're just advancing the ball to someone else who makes the assist, hockey assists.

Fox is a special talent but can't shoot. He reminds me of a young Doc Rivers but a better passer.

Smith is a freak athlete but he's extremely ball dominant, what makes Ball special is the ball moves so much, with Smith he dribbles the air out of the ball.

Really fascinating year, Leaf is getting late lottery talk now, I think he's too skinny but he's been much better than I expected, I knew he was good but not this good.

Fultz is terrific, Markannen terrific. Loaded year.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Transformational? What does that mean? Transcendent I can get excited about, but I don't know what transformational is suppose to indicate.

The ability to transform your team is my interpretation. Sign me up for that.

 

[slinslin]

I would be more cautious about Ball.

Fultz is the full package but Ball I think has holes in his game that are hard to see at the college level right now. His shooting mechanics obviously and I saw an interesting stat showing that Ball has made only 1 2pt jumper so far. He is shooting like 14% on 2-pt jumpshots despite his insane FG%.

That seems curious considering a good 3pt%.

UCLA is also loaded with sooters to make Ball shine.

Fultz actually has a higher assist% than Ball.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I would be more cautious about Ball.

Fultz is the full package but Ball I think has holes in his game that are hard to see at the college level right now. His shooting mechanics obviously and I saw an interesting stat showing that Ball has made only 1 2pt jumper so far. He is shooting like 14% on 2-pt jumpshots despite his insane FG%.

That seems curious considering a good 3pt%.

UCLA is also loaded with sooters to make Ball shine.

Fultz actually has a higher assist% than Ball.

Ball is one of the least selfish players I've ever seen. He not only makes the hockey assist, he makes the pass that sets up the pass and his unselfish play infects everyone he plays with. When you watch UCLA play, it's clear that Lonzo is the floor leader but it's questionable whether he's really the point guard out there. He plays off the ball often and while he touches the ball on most possessions, it's not usually in his hands very long.

Fultz is a me-first guard and is nowhere near the playmaker that Lonzo is. You can't possibly watch the two of them play and think their assist% tells a story. But having said that, you're right about the next level. Fultz's game is made for the NBA.

 

[GatorAZ]

Lonzo needs a floater in the worst way. He doesn't look to shoot at all near the paint unless it's a gimme. There's a lot of time left to watch these guys as conference play is about to start.

Josh Jackson has looked really good of late.

 

[leclerc]

We need to keep losing but play better team basketball. Ship out Knight and play Ulis as backup PG. That should lift team spirits. A guy who plays hard, smart and shares the ball.

Then draft PG or SF (best player available) to finalise the young core.

 

[slinslin]

Ball is one of the least selfish players I've ever seen. He not only makes the hockey assist, he makes the pass that sets up the pass and his unselfish play infects everyone he plays with. When you watch UCLA play, it's clear that Lonzo is the floor leader but it's questionable whether he's really the point guard out there. He plays off the ball often and while he touches the ball on most possessions, it's not usually in his hands very long.

Fultz is a me-first guard and is nowhere near the playmaker that Lonzo is. You can't possibly watch the two of them play and think their assist% tells a story. But having said that, you're right about the next level. Fultz's game is made for the NBA.

Fultz is defintely not a "me-first" guard. He is simply a complete player offensively who can do it all and thus is more involved since he is a far better scorer than Ball.

Fultz reminds me of James Harden if I had to come up with a comparison. He makes great passes, very creative, has arrays of offensive moves and can shoot.

 

[Russ Smith]

I would be more cautious about Ball.

Fultz is the full package but Ball I think has holes in his game that are hard to see at the college level right now. His shooting mechanics obviously and I saw an interesting stat showing that Ball has made only 1 2pt jumper so far. He is shooting like 14% on 2-pt jumpshots despite his insane FG%.

That seems curious considering a good 3pt%.

UCLA is also loaded with sooters to make Ball shine.

Fultz actually has a higher assist% than Ball.

Lonzo has no midrange.

I'm not sure what assist% is but if it's what I think it is much of that is a function of usage. Fultz has a VERY high usage rate, Ball's is not high at all like I posted before many of his best passes aren't even assists they're hit aheads or hockey assists. He doesn't keep the ball needlessly he makes the pass and lets the next guy get the assist.

It's tough, Fultz is obviously a better shooter and at this point a better defender. That said, Ball joined a team that was 15-17, a year later with 3 freshmen added in they're 13-1 and ranked in the top 10 in the country. He has completely changed the mindset of UCLA.

Fultz is putting up great stats, on a team that's 7-5 with some bad losses. He's a great player it's not his fault UW isn't good, but he's not really making them better the way Ball has at UCLA.

I think both are great prospects but in terms of impact so far, despite the stats, Ball has made his team better. Watch UCLA play and watch what happens when Lonzo goes out, the team is completely different, even with a kid like Aaron Holiday running PG UCLA is not nearly as good without Lonzo in there.

 

[GatorAZ]

My comments, Lonzo is a one and done he's said it repeatedly so don't even think he's staying to play with his brothers.

The release on the shot is unusual, like Kevin Martin but lower, but so far it's going in. UCLA tried to tweak the shot this summer, he shot poorly in Australia and went back to his normal shot but he turned his feet more(to the left) so his shoulder and elbow align better. So he has tweaked it since HS. he's a better athlete than people realize, hes' still learning defense after that system they played in HS but his instincts are off the chartes he's constantly deflecting passes getting steals and blocks. My biggest concern is his habit of landing on one leg after rebounds, hes' already tweaked the left knee a bit, been wearing a brace of late. He has no midrange, 3's or dunks right now but his passing is off the charts good. He's like Kidd in that many of his best passes aren't even assists they're just advancing the ball to someone else who makes the assist, hockey assists.

Fox is a special talent but can't shoot. He reminds me of a young Doc Rivers but a better passer.

Smith is a freak athlete but he's extremely ball dominant, what makes Ball special is the ball moves so much, with Smith he dribbles the air out of the ball.

Really fascinating year, Leaf is getting late lottery talk now, I think he's too skinny but he's been much better than I expected, I knew he was good but not this good.

Fultz is terrific, Markannen terrific. Loaded year.

He's definitely ball dominant but Smith looks like his game would translate better in the NBA. Elite PNR player and the best athlete in the draft despite tearing his ACL his sr year in HS.

He's explosion screams Westbrook.

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[slinslin]

Lonzo has no midrange.

I'm not sure what assist% is but if it's what I think it is much of that is a function of usage. Fultz has a VERY high usage rate, Ball's is not high at all like I posted before many of his best passes aren't even assists they're hit aheads or hockey assists. He doesn't keep the ball needlessly he makes the pass and lets the next guy get the assist.

It's tough, Fultz is obviously a better shooter and at this point a better defender. That said, Ball joined a team that was 15-17, a year later with 3 freshmen added in they're 13-1 and ranked in the top 10 in the country. He has completely changed the mindset of UCLA.

Fultz is putting up great stats, on a team that's 7-5 with some bad losses. He's a great player it's not his fault UW isn't good, but he's not really making them better the way Ball has at UCLA.

I think both are great prospects but in terms of impact so far, despite the stats, Ball has made his team better. Watch UCLA play and watch what happens when Lonzo goes out, the team is completely different, even with a kid like Aaron Holiday running PG UCLA is not nearly as good without Lonzo in there.

Ast% measures how many teammate field goals were assisted by the player while on the floor.

Fultz has a 35.2% AST rate, 13.4% TOV rate, 29% USG rate
Per 100 posessions Fultz averages 34.1ppg 9.8apg 9.6rpg 2.7spg 2.1bpg


Ball has a 31.0% AST rate, 18.4 TOV rate, 17% USG rate
Per 100 posessions Ball averages 20.5ppg 12.1apg 8.4rpg 2.1spg 1.4bpg

So yes his usage is clearly lower, which I am not sure is a good or bad thing in estimating how he will translate to the NBA.

Balls turnover rate is much higher because of the amount of turnovers despite lower usage.

 

[Russ Smith]

He's definitely ball dominant but Smith looks like his game would translate better in the NBA. Elite PNR player and the best athlete in the draft despite tearing his ACL his sr year in HS.

He's explosion screams Westbrook.

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Yep it depends on the team of course one of the big questions with Ball is they don't run lots of pick and roll for him that's an NBA staple, can he do it,. My guess is on limited viewing when they do it, he almost always makes the right play, the right read, pass etc.

I wish he'd take over more often, he goes to the rim sometimes to pass I want to see him just dunk it. But the other end of that is he joined a team that was at times VERY selfish the last 2 years and he's completely changed the mindset of guys like Alford and Hamilton, even Holiday.

He just makes guys around him better and there's lots of value in that.

 

[slinslin]

Dennis Smith is outstanding as well, the most important thing is he had 16 assists in that game with the dunk.

Smith also sports a sky high AST% rate almost equal to Fultz and also does not turn it over a lot.
34.4% AST Rate 27% USG 14.8%TOV

per 100 posessions 30.6ppg 10.2apg 6.0rpg 3.1spg 0.6spg

 

[Russ Smith]

Ast% measures how many teammate field goals were assisted by the player while on the floor.

Fultz has a 35.2% AST rate, 13.4% TOV rate, 29% USG rate
Per 100 posessions Fultz averages 34.1ppg 9.8apg 9.6rpg 2.7spg 2.1bpg


Ball has a 31.0% AST rate, 18.4 TOV rate, 17% USG rate
Per 100 posessions Ball averages 20.5ppg 12.1apg 8.4rpg 2.1spg 1.4bpg

Ok so that's sort of what I figured and again it's a function of usage. If you have the ball all the time, the odds are you're going to have a high % of assists.

I would also add UCLA runs a totally different system. Holiday is at 4.5 APG, I Ham 3.5, Bryce 2.6, Leaf 2.5 I think. When you give the ball up freely like Ball does, you're not going to get as high a % of the overall assists but it makes the TEAM better as a result.

I like Fultz a great deal he's a very talented kid, but he's a guy who's really most effective with the ball in his hands all the time, Ball is a different player in a totally different system.

If I want to run pick and roll I draft Fultz, if I want to run a more Warriors like offense I draft Ball.

 

[slinslin]

The Warriors play nothing like Lonzo Ball

Here is Steph Currys usage

2014 - 28.3 usg
2015 - 28.9 usg
2016 - 32.6 usg
2017 - 28.1 usg

Curry has always been a high usage player, the warriors had their best season when he had a sky high usage rate.
I don't see how Ball thus fits into the GSW style. Fultz is a lot more comparable to Curry than Ball is.

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Absolutely insane, best freshman since at least Carmelo Anthony in my opinion.

 

[leclerc]

I trust in tank commander Watson even if he's just a straw man. Let's get one of these top prospects.

 

[Russ Smith]

Ast% measures how many teammate field goals were assisted by the player while on the floor.

Fultz has a 35.2% AST rate, 13.4% TOV rate, 29% USG rate
Per 100 posessions Fultz averages 34.1ppg 9.8apg 9.6rpg 2.7spg 2.1bpg


Ball has a 31.0% AST rate, 18.4 TOV rate, 17% USG rate
Per 100 posessions Ball averages 20.5ppg 12.1apg 8.4rpg 2.1spg 1.4bpg

So yes his usage is clearly lower, which I am not sure is a good or bad thing in estimating how he will translate to the NBA.

Balls turnover rate is much higher because of the amount of turnovers despite lower usage.

Right the argument is that BECAUSE Ball passes so much more than Fultz does, while yeah the turnover rate is higher as you said, the assist rate is underrated. UCLA averages 95 PPG, UW averages 88. I'm guessing UW actually "runs" more than UCLA does, that's my suspicion watching both teams. UW averages only 14 assists, UCLA averages 23. So they score 7 more PPG but get 9 more APG. I would say SOME of that is because they have guys like Alford and Holiday who can and have played PG before. But much of that is because Ball's usage rate is so low, he's so willing to give the ball up that it allows other guys to create too. He doesn't care who gets the assist as long as someone makes the shot.

45% of UW's assists come from Fultz, 35% of UCLA's assists come from Ball, and the reason UCLA gets so many more assists from other guys than UW does IMO is in part because Ball gives the ball up so freely and at the right time as hockey assists or hit aheads. Fultz doesn't do that which is why UCLA's 2nd-5th assists guys all average more APG than UW's 2nd guy, David Crisp. When Fultz is in the game he has the ball.

Ball routinely gets a rebound and before he's even hit the floor he's passed the ball ahead.

they're both great players and Fultz may very well be a better pro because NBA teams value pick and roll so much. Ball can do it but UCLA doesn't do much of it so he'll be a bit behind the curve in that respect when he gets to the NBA.

 

[Russ Smith]

The Warriors play nothing like Lonzo Ball

Here is Steph Currys usage

2014 - 28.3 usg
2015 - 28.9 usg
2016 - 32.6 usg
2017 - 28.1 usg

Curry has always been a high usage player, the warriors had their best season when he had a sky high usage rate.
I don't see how Ball thus fits into the GSW style. Fultz is a lot more comparable to Curry than Ball is.

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Absolutely insane, best freshman since at least Carmelo Anthony in my opinion.

Because the Warriors spread the court shoot 3's and move the ball. They don't run a bunch of iso's. They do run pick and roll quite a bit with Curry, UCLA isn't doing it much with Lonzo, but the system UCLA runs is based in part on them studying the Warriors(remember Bob Myers is an ex UCLA player) and figuring out how it fit with Ball. They completely changed their offense this year to fit his style and it works.

 

[slinslin]

I have a completely different observation from that.. I think Ball gets most of his production from transition plays while he does not accomplish much in halfcourt when the game slows down. On the other hand Fultz gets things done and can break down a defense. Also UCLA is stacked, they were bad last year but who did they lose? They are a team stacked with shooters, Alford was on draft radars in the past and Leaf is also one of the top freshmen. Washington on the other hand was bad last year and lost their 2 top players.

I think UCLA gets more assists because they are a jumpshot shooting team with top shooters across the floor while Washington does not nearly have that arsenal of shooters.

 

[hcsilla]

I would add Malik Monk to Fultz as a potential franchise player caliber of talent.

 

[GatorAZ]

I would add Malik Monk to Fultz as a potential franchise player caliber of talent.

Monk is a shotmaker. Fultz is a complete player. I'm interested in his teammate De'Aaron Fox. Can't shoot a lick but he's a pure PG (if we somehow end up picking in the 6-8 area). He's got the physical tools.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I would add Malik Monk to Fultz as a potential franchise player caliber of talent.

Too many 6'3 or shorter scorers that don't pan out. I think he's potentially Harold miner or tony delk.

 

[slinslin]

Isaiah Hartenstein is a prospect that was talked about in equal terms to Dragan Bender if not higher and currently projected in the late first round of next years draft.

 

[Russ Smith]

I have a completely different observation from that.. I think Ball gets most of his production from transition plays while he does not accomplish much in halfcourt when the game slows down. On the other hand Fultz gets things done and can break down a defense. Also UCLA is stacked, they were bad last year but who did they lose? They are a team stacked with shooters, Alford was on draft radars in the past and Leaf is also one of the top freshmen. Washington on the other hand was bad last year and lost their 2 top players.

I think UCLA gets more assists because they are a jumpshot shooting team with top shooters across the floor while Washington does not nearly have that arsenal of shooters.

UCLA gets more assists because they pass the ball more. And they shoot really well because they pass the ball so well. It's a combination of the 2.

As for who did they lose, that's sort of the point they are shooting 54% overall and 42 from 3, and that's down they were even better until I Ham went into a huge slump (2-18 on 3's). Last year with the same team minus Ball and Leaf they shot 45 and 36% respectively. So up 9 and 6 with the same players. Leaf is shooting 66% replacing Parker at 54 but if you just remove Leaf from UCLA they're still shooting 52% overall and 41% from 3. Basically everyone on the team is shooting better this year than last year. Some of that is improvement, much of that is playing with Lonzo Ball.

Fultz is a great player, he doesn't make his teammates better though. Look at their C Malik Dime, he shot 62% last year, same minutes this year he's shooting 44%. He gets different shots now.