How Great is the 2017 draft class?

[3rdside]

This is my dream scenario. You draft Ball and have the following future line-up:

PG Ball Ulis
SG Booker ???
SF ??? Warren DJJ
PF Chriss Bender
C ??? Big Sauce

I like all 8 of those players for the next great Suns team. Then, you look for:

A. An athletic center who provides interior defense and a low-post presence on offense. (If only those grew on trees).
B. A starting SF who complements Booker. Ideally, this player would be a high-end 3-and-D type.
C. Back-up SG who can shoot the 3 and play defense as well.

You would have these avenues to get those players:
1. Trading Bledsoe
2. Our future draft picks and second rounders
3. The Miami picks (use or trade them)
4. Free agency

My second favorite scenario is to get Jackson or Tatum and keep Bledsoe. Then you only need two guys and you ride a really nice combo of Bled and Ulis at point. I'd still prefer the first scenario though, and a focus on building an exciting young team with great ball movement.

Would a stretch 5 in Bender do you?! Guy can defend alright.

 

[3rdside]

* "We may never win a title but we're guaranteed fun and 50 wins and that is a damn sight better than what we've had over the last 7 years".

Booker may be eye of the tiger however so this is the absolute bare minimum I'd expect with these two.

 

[slinslin]

But stick a Nash, Harden or Kidd in for Bledsoe and we probably would be however, and that's why Ball is such a drawcard. We may never win a title but we're guaranteed fun and 50 wins and that is a damn sight better than what we've had over the last 7 years.

Ball is not Nash or Harden, that comparison is ridiculous and Jason Kidd is a best case comparison.

Of course the Suns would be better if you replaced Bledsoe with an all-time great PG. What is the point of saying that? Ball is not a all-time PG. He is a nice prospect with major flaws in his game particularly as a scorer and shooter and recently none of these "true or traditional" PGs that were limited scorers found success in the NBA.

People were high on Kendall Marshall too at some point and he destroyed Balls passing in college but also had questionmarks about his ability as a scorer.
Ricky Rubio etc.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

Would a stretch 5 in Bender do you?! Guy can defend alright.

A stretch 5 in Bender would do me indeed! I probably should have put him there considering this is my dream scenario! Still have concerns about his ability to defend the interior right now, but if he can get naturally stronger and bigger while developing more of an inside game, he would be the ideal 5 for this squad. Big "ifs" though.

 

[3rdside]

Ball is not Nash or Harden, that comparison is ridiculous and Jason Kidd is a best case comparison.

Of course the Suns would be better if you replaced Bledsoe with an all-time great PG. What is the point of saying that? Ball is not a all-time PG. He is a nice prospect with major flaws in his game particularly as a scorer and shooter and recently none of these "true or traditional" PGs that were limited scorers found success in the NBA.

People were high on Kendall Marshall too who destroys Balls passing in college. Ricky Rubio etc.

Ridiculous is you saying ridiculous. Try toning it down a little and you'll offend less people and come across more credible in the process as you literally have no idea (nor do i) what his upside is.

He's like Nash and harden for his ability to elevate play (the scoring of the team, the scoring of each of the individual players, the pace of the team, the watchability of the team and, ultimately, the number of team wins), not for any particular physical or statistical attributes.

And the point I make about ball vs Bledsoe is that Bledsoe doesn't elevate team play whereas the others do, and I prefer my point guards to do that. Ball, like I said, appears to be one of those players.

Rambling a bit but....

It's not essential that your point guard does this - see the lakers with Kobe and Shaq as an example - but it's my preference, and in this increasingly fast paced game a better 'team' will surely beat out a better individual player or two...

....and having a point guard that facilitates this style of play is the best place for a rebuilding team to start imo and Ball is the obvious point guard of choice.


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[3rdside]

I don't doubt Ball has flaws which is why I partly share your doubts, just for the record, but he can facilitate exceptionally well and that's good enough for me.


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[Mainstreet]

I don't think it makes much difference whether Len walks or not.

This is what I'm thinking as well but I dislike giving up on a young player. I would not invest big money in Len but I keep him on a reasonable contract.

 

[Mainstreet]

I like Collins quite a bit, brought him up a few times earlier this season but I don't think I'd use a top 7 pick on him. He's just a little too slow of foot and if we take Markkanen, he loses a little value because of duplication. I think in the NBA you're looking at a ceiling of Hawes, probably a little higher. But I might think about taking Fultz with that first pick and using a Miami pick plus a 2nd to move into the mid/late teens and take Zack there.

This is what I was wondering about Collins, his weaknesses. If he is slow a foot this drops his value in my book. I think he could develop his outside shot though. I think Markkanen might be a duplication of Chriss and Bender but this does not bother me if he is BPA. However, I do think the Suns need to fix the center position if Len leaves. Chandler is solid but he is not getting any younger. Williams might be best used as a backup or situational center.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

I don't doubt Ball has flaws which is why I partly share your doubts, just for the record, but he can facilitate exceptionally well and that's good enough for me.


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This is a big thing for me as well. It's one of the reasons I like Ulis so much. Obviously, you need to be a threat to score as well, or you end up with Rubio or (much worse) Kendall Marshall, but I much prefer the pass first point guards.

The other benefit we have is that Booker is capable of taking over ball handling duties and creating his own shot when necessary.

 

[slinslin]

Ridiculous is you saying ridiculous. Try toning it down a little and you'll offend less people and come across more credible in the process as you literally have no idea (nor do i) what his upside is.

He's like Nash and harden for his ability to elevate play (the scoring of the team, the scoring of each of the individual players, the pace of the team, the watchability of the team and, ultimately, the number of team wins), not for any particular physical or statistical attributes.

And the point I make about ball vs Bledsoe is that Bledsoe doesn't elevate team play whereas the others do, and I prefer my point guards to do that. Ball, like I said, appears to be one of those players.

Rambling a bit but....

It's not essential that your point guard does this - see the lakers with Kobe and Shaq as an example - but it's my preference, and in this increasingly fast paced game a better 'team' will surely beat out a better individual player or two...

....and having a point guard that facilitates this style of play is the best place for a rebuilding team to start imo and Ball is the obvious point guard of choice.


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We already are one of the highest pace teams in the league.

This is a big thing for me as well. It's one of the reasons I like Ulis so much. Obviously, you need to be a threat to score as well, or you end up with Rubio or (much worse) Kendall Marshall, but I much prefer the pass first point guards.

The other benefit we have is that Booker is capable of taking over ball handling duties and creating his own shot when necessary.

And Bledsoe btw

http://stats.nba.com/players/passing/#!?sort=PASSES_MADE&dir=1

Only Harden, McConnell, Rubio and Paul pass more than Eric Bledsoe.

 

[slinslin]

I don't doubt Ball has flaws which is why I partly share your doubts, just for the record, but he can facilitate exceptionally well and that's good enough for me.


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And Kendell Marshall faciliated even better than Ball.

As did Kris Dunn.

In fact Ball has one of the lowest AST% rates of recent first round PG prospects, one of the highest turnover rates and one of the lowest usage.
His advanced stats are almost a copy of Tyler Ennis besides that Ennis had a much better turnover rate.

Tyler Ennis per 100 pos
24.0ppg 10.2apg 6.3rpg 3.9spg 21.9%Usage 11.9%Turnover Rate 32.3%Assist Rate

Lonzo Ball per 100 pos
22.3ppg 11.8apg 7.0rpg 3.0spg 18.1%Usage 18.7%Turnover Rate 31.7%Assist Rate

Kendall Marshall per 100 pos
13.6ppg 16.3apg 4.4rpg 2.0spg 13.9%Usage 27.8%Turnover Rate 45.1%Assist Rate

It is extremely uncommon for PG prospects to have less than 25% Usage. Extremely rare and not in a good way as the star players across the board have high usage rates.

Also lets not forget that Ricky Rubio had the exact same hype as the next big thing, true PG yadayadayaday. And Rubio delivered he is phenomenal at everything except scoring but is still only an average starter at best and despite his "floor general and facilitator qualities" the Timberwolves have been a bottom lottery team for his entire career.

But sure Ball will come in and transform a team just because he is a good facilitator alone. Automatic 50 win team!

 

[slinslin]

Rambling a bit but....

It's not essential that your point guard does this - see the lakers with Kobe and Shaq as an example - but it's my preference, and in this increasingly fast paced game a better 'team' will surely beat out a better individual player or two...

In fact no PG that would fit your description has ever lead a team to a title. Jason Kidd only got a title when he was a shell of his former self and absolute role player.

Steve Nash never made the finals. Ricky Rubio never made the playoffs. John Stockton never won a title.

And no Ball is no Magic Johnson or Lebron James.

Steph Curry won a title, Kyrie Irving won titles, Isaiah Thomas won titles, Chauncey Billups won titles.. none of them fit your decription of what you think a PG should do.

 

[AzStevenCal]

But we are not taking Markkanen, we will draft 1-5 not 7-12 which is Markkanens range. #6 an absolute worst case scenario that is very unlikely.

4 of the top 5 picks are a given in Fultz, Tatum, Jackson and Ball and the 5th is either Smith, Isaac, Fox or Monk before Lauri.

You keep confusing your opinion with fact. The draft order changes every year as a result of tournament play, interviews, medical evaluations and measurements. Some of those players will still be among the top 8 but it's absurd to categorically state "this will be the order" at this point in time.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

We already are one of the highest pace teams in the league.



And Bledsoe btw

http://stats.nba.com/players/passing/#!?sort=PASSES_MADE&dir=1

Only Harden, McConnell, Rubio and Paul pass more than Eric Bledsoe.

Perhaps "pass first" was the wrong term. I think Bledsoe is a willing passer. It just doesn't seem that the team passes often and efficiently when he runs the offense. We were last in the league in assists as a team in the first half of this season. That's certainly not all Bledsoe's fault, but it certainly doesn't work in his favor.

And part of it is the eye test. The ball moves a lot more when Ulis is running the show. Not sure what the statistics show, but it seems like more people are moving and getting involved in the offense. When Bledsoe is running the show, I see a lot more isolation.

That said, maybe I have a little bias having watched Bledsoe lead this uninspiring team the past few years.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Perhaps "pass first" was the wrong term. I think Bledsoe is a willing passer. It just doesn't seem that the team passes often and efficiently when he runs the offense. We were last in the league in assists as a team in the first half of this season. That's certainly not all Bledsoe's fault, but it certainly doesn't work in his favor.

And part of it is the eye test. The ball moves a lot more when Ulis is running the show. Not sure what the statistics show, but it seems like more people are moving and getting involved in the offense. When Bledsoe is running the show, I see a lot more isolation.

That said, maybe I have a little bias having watched Bledsoe lead this uninspiring team the past few years.

Don't be swayed by a useless stat. Yes, Bledsoe passes the ball often but that's meaningless. As they say, never confuse activity with achievement. Bledsoe does not do a good job of generating offense for his teammates. He's not selfish as some have claimed and he is still a plus PG in today's game but his strengths do not reside in his passing skills or his offensive creativity except where it applies to creating his own shots.

 

[Russ Smith]

I'm way behind but how exactly was kidd a better scorer than Ball? You realize Lonzo's freshman year he's getting nearly 2PPG more than Kidd did?

You realize he's shooting better from 2, 3 and the FT line than Kidd did?

 

[AzStevenCal]

I'm way behind but how exactly was kidd a better scorer than Ball? You realize Lonzo's freshman year he's getting nearly 2PPG more than Kidd did?

You realize he's shooting better from 2, 3 and the FT line than Kidd did?

We're all way behind here. Apparently, Ball is the second coming of Rubio meets Kendall Marshall and we're just the last to know.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I'm way behind but how exactly was kidd a better scorer than Ball? You realize Lonzo's freshman year he's getting nearly 2PPG more than Kidd did?

You realize he's shooting better from 2, 3 and the FT line than Kidd did?

People will do anything to talk themselves out of Ball being good. He has been at a minimum one of the 3 best players in the nation this year IMO. That being said I would take at least Fultz and Tatum over him.

 

[Russ Smith]

We're all way behind here. Apparently, Ball is the second coming of Rubio meets Kendall Marshall and we're just the last to know.

Well he is very unathletic like Marshall, wait that's not true either. Yeah that one baffles me I guess it's just a taller PG who is pass first comparison. Remember Larry Drew had a mom who got famous for mocking how unathletic Kendall Marshall was.

I don't know how good he's going to be but I don't get the Rubio comparison at all. he's over 40%(.406) for the first time in his career this year, 6 years. 32% rounded up lifetime from 3 and that's with the defense standing 10 feet away begging him to shoot. Lonzo is shooting over 40% from NBA 3 in college right now, if teams guard him the way they guard Rubio there's no reason at all to assume he can't shoot 40% from 3 in the NBA. I don't think he will right away but largely because I don't think teams will back off him the way they do Rubio, he's a much better shooter than Rubio is.

I'm just hoping the thumb is ok, I did that once years ago to my left thumb, the whole heel of the hand swelled up and it was weeks before I could use that hand effectively again. I haven't heard anything other than xrays and MRI's were good so I'm hoping no news is good news.

 

[AzStevenCal]

^^Yeah, this is the wrong time to be dealing with a thumb injury. I don't think it will hurt his passing much but that can be a killer when it comes to shooting.

As for the Marshall comparison, it makes no sense to me. Ball has great speed, he may not change directions with the ball like some of the little waterbug guards do but he's not sluggish like Marshall and that alone destroys the comparison.

 

[slinslin]

Marshall had great open court speed in college as well. North Carolina was a fastbreak machine with him.

I'm way behind but how exactly was kidd a better scorer than Ball? You realize Lonzo's freshman year he's getting nearly 2PPG more than Kidd did?

You realize he's shooting better from 2, 3 and the FT line than Kidd did?

Kidd was better at breaking down the defense and penetrating when he had to in my opinion.

Also Kidd in his draft season averaged 16.7ppg (19.0ppg per 40) that is more than Ball(16.7 per 40).
He averaged twice as many free throws as Ball. He was able to score in more ways than Ball, no matter how you look at it or how efficient Balls % may seem.

Also if you compare freshman seasons Ball plays more minutes so his raw stats are higher. In reality Ball as a freshman scored only 0.3 points more per 40 minutes than Kidd did as a freshman (16.4).

The scoring difference comes from the fact that Ball shoots more 3s.

Of course Kidd averaged more assists and way more steals as a freshman and as sophomore.

I don't know how good he's going to be but I don't get the Rubio comparison at all. he's over 40%(.406) for the first time in his career this year, 6 years. 32% rounded up lifetime from 3 and that's with the defense standing 10 feet away begging him to shoot. Lonzo is shooting over 40% from NBA 3 in college right now, if teams guard him the way they guard Rubio there's no reason at all to assume he can't shoot 40% from 3 in the NBA. I don't think he will right away but largely because I don't think teams will back off him the way they do Rubio, he's a much better shooter than Rubio is.

He might be or he might not be. Justise Winslow shot 42% from 3 and he is one of the worst shooters in the entire NBA.

Nobody knows for sure how much of an impact Balls slow and low release will have against better and bigger NBA defenders. There is a reason why he is settling for such long 3s in college.

 

[3rdside]

There's something about that Pace ranking that doesn't sit well me, I guess it's because it doesn't correlate very well with points scored (Brooklyn, Phoenix, Lakers and Philly are high in pace but average to low in scoring). And they say nothing of style - we're ugly to watch, no two ways about it, and our results reflect that.

The Passing stats are interesting at first glance where Bledsoe is high suggesting he is trying to facilitate..but his assist numbers - where he's 13th - and secondary assists - 19th - possibly prove my point, that he just isn't very good at elevating those around him in that he doesn't find teammates for good shots or a good pass.

I'm sure not having much talent around doesn't help but still.

Also interesting is Dragic, who I've been arguing is an 'elevator' of players around him, is lower than Bledsoe on assists and tied on secondary assists which possibly goes against 'Dragic as an elevator' argument. But then I've always said it's more than just assists - chemistry, leadership, likability, non-statistical style of play etc etc.

It could just be Spoelstra and his system of course, or it could be Spoelstra and Dragic...Either way, the argument will rumble on.

 

[slinslin]

We are not ugly to watch, are you even watching? Also we are 9th in scoring. The only reason we are not higher is because we are the 4th worst 3pt shooting team in the league.

It could also be that Dragic has better teammates, veterans and plays in a weak conference.

The Suns are 13-10 against the East. Miami is 21-21 against the East.

You realize that assists also have something to do with your teammates? When you pass but your teammates dribble 3 times before scoring, well.. if your teammates shoot 34% from 3 instead of 39%.

Yeah sure since no numbers can support your biased pro-Dragic stance, it suddenly comes down to inexplicable phenoms like "likability" (as you always claimed, where?)

Dragic is so liked among his teammates he was about to get punched by IT and had the locker room turn on him.

 

[3rdside]

In fact no PG that would fit your description has ever lead a team to a title. Jason Kidd only got a title when he was a shell of his former self and absolute role player.

Steve Nash never made the finals. Ricky Rubio never made the playoffs. John Stockton never won a title.

And no Ball is no Magic Johnson or Lebron James.

Steph Curry won a title, Kyrie Irving won titles, Isaiah Thomas won titles, Chauncey Billups won titles.. none of them fit your decription of what you think a PG should do.

I hear you - this is the one glaring argument against PG's as facilitators being the most important cog; statistics say they're not essential.

But..

The NBA style of play is changing - finding the open man for the three ball is important - and fast, open, high scoring basketball is fun, certainly in the absence of actually winning.

And while I'm not saying be pretty and lose, I am saying it helps when not winning (as the vast majority of teams do) - and had it not been for Diaw and Stoudemire's suspension, there's every chance Nash would be both an MVP and NBA winner on one of the funnest, high scoring, teams to watch of all time

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

We are not ugly to watch, are you even watching? Also we are 9th in scoring. The only reason we are not higher is because we are the 4th worst 3pt shooting team in the league.

It could also be that Dragic has better teammates, veterans and plays in a weak conference.

The Suns are 13-10 against the East. Miami is 21-21 against the East.

You realize that assists also have something to do with your teammates? When you pass but your teammates dribble 3 times before scoring, well.. if your teammates shoot 34% from 3 instead of 39%.

Yeah sure since no numbers can support your biased pro-Dragic stance, it suddenly comes down to inexplicable phenoms like "likability" (as you always claimed, where?)

Dragic is so liked among his teammates he was about to get punched by IT and had the locker room turn on him.

Yeah I really don't know where people are coming from with the argument that this isn't a good offensive team. They are terrible on defense and could turn the ball over less, but those are both things that will get better with more experience.