How Much More Accurate Can Rosen Become

[Chris_Sanders]

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

Wow.

Quarterbacks are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the quarterback 's performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage. DYAR (and its cousin, YAR, which isn't adjusted based on opponent)

Rosen -1,122 yards.

The next highest is Josh Allen at -534

Then Bortles at -220

So having Rosen as our QB equated to over a thousand less yards than a league average QB

QBR

• Total QBR incorporates information from game charting, such as passes dropped or thrown away on purpose.
• Total QBR splits responsibility on plays between the quarterback, his receivers, and his blockers. Drops, for example, are more on the receiver, as are yards after the catch, and some sacks are more on the offensive line than others.
• Total QBR has a clutch factor which adds (or subtracts) value for quarterbacks who perform best (or worst) in high-leverage situations.
• Total QBR combines passing and rushing value into one number and differentiates between scrambles and planned runs.
• Beginning in 2016, Total QBR is now adjusted for strength of opponent. Total QBR on other stats pages (pre-2016) has not yet been updated with oppponent adjustment.

QBR 26.1 If you doubled his performance, you get...Eli Manning. That's funny

 

[kerouac9]

Will Josh Rosen ever be a completion percentage god like Sam Bradford? I doubt it. The stat from NFL's Next Gen stats that jumped out to me were Aggressiveness and Air Yards to Sticks, which factor in the situation. Rosen was responding to adversity in the offense by pushing HARDER to get the ball down the field.

I think that's more positive than guys like Bradford or Carr or Alex Smith who shift the blame to their teammates by throwing three yards on third and eight.

It would've been interesting to see Rosen in BA's offense.

Quick sacks and time-to-throw BOTH matter.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Kingsbury better be ready to walk on water.

 

[football karma]

How old are those two again?

Experience counts.

of course

the point is: I don't think anyone would say that Drew Brees and Tom Brady were the 4th and 7th most pressured Qbs in the NFL last year. The Brees stat is amazing --they actively push the ball down the field

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Will Josh Rosen ever be a completion percentage god like Sam Bradford? I doubt it. The stat from NFL's Next Gen stats that jumped out to me were Aggressiveness and Air Yards to Sticks, which factor in the situation. Rosen was responding to adversity in the offense by pushing HARDER to get the ball down the field.

I think that's more positive than guys like Bradford or Carr or Alex Smith who shift the blame to their teammates by throwing three yards on third and eight.

It would've been interesting to see Rosen in BA's offense.

Quick sacks and time-to-throw BOTH matter.

Aggressiveness is how many times the QB targeted a receiver that wasn't open. Rosen led the league in that. And again his completion percentage was much lower than anyone else attempting that.

I used to think it was because receivers weren't open but various breakdowns of film just shows he wasn't going through his reads properly.

 

[Chopper0080]

Aggressiveness is how many times the QB targeted a receiver that wasn't open. Rosen led the league in that. And again his completion percentage was much lower than anyone else attempting that.

I used to think it was because receivers weren't open but various breakdowns of film just shows he wasn't going through his reads properly.

To me, this sounds like an issue that would and should be fixed by coaching.

Where I believe we all need to settle at is that other than being able to take a beating and make some nice throws, there isn't much to take away from Rosen's season. He is still most likely to be the guy who the Cardinals drafted out of college vs being a terribly inaccurate passer who makes poor reads. He is more likely to be a 60% passer who is not terribly mobile, and will need a solid system and offensive line to be at his best. Let's not forget that he is on his 7th OC in the past 6 years.

HC Coach
Mazzone
Polamalu
Fisch
McCoy
Leftwich
Kingsbury

It is shocking to me that Rosen struggles a little with his own consistency under these optimal circumstances.*sarcasm*

 

[kerouac9]

Kingsbury better be ready to walk on water.

Jared Goff had a -881 DYAR and 22.2 QBR his rookie season.

Aggressiveness is how many times the QB targeted a receiver that wasn't open. Rosen led the league in that. And again his completion percentage was much lower than anyone else attempting that.

I used to think it was because receivers weren't open but various breakdowns of film just shows he wasn't going through his reads properly.

That's not what it says -- it's your interpretation of what it says:

Aggressiveness tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion. AGG is shown as a % of attempts into tight windows over all passing attempts.
​

EDIT: It's hard to believe that a rookie QB could've struggled in such a previously successful offense, especially with an experienced coordinator who had refined his playcalling process over several preseason games.

 

[PJ1]

Kingsbury better be ready to walk on water.

Murray better be able to as well.

 

[Chopper0080]

I find it interesting how people forget that Rosen was the #2 QB in the country out of high school. That he started as a true freshman at UCLA. That he was a 60% college passer. 30 college starts. A 2:1 TD to INT ratio. AND IS ONLY 6 MONTHS OLDER THAN KYLER MURRAY!!!

 

[Dr. Jones]

Aggressiveness is how many times the QB targeted a receiver that wasn't open. Rosen led the league in that. And again his completion percentage was much lower than anyone else attempting that.

I used to think it was because receivers weren't open but various breakdowns of film just shows he wasn't going through his reads properly.

Many draft profiles on Rosen speak to this.

• Decision making and post-snap reads are inconsistent
• Refuses easy throws at times
• Poor career deep ball completion rate
• Needs better anticipation
• Poor mobility
• Struggles to elude early pressure
• Completed just 42.4 percent of his throws when forced to move
• Too much hero ball

These are cherry picked from his weaknesses, but also show a lack of progression through the years. It could also be coaching but, I still contend that coaching between a players ears is completely up to the player.

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/josh-rosen?id=32462018-0002-5600-59bd-f150d938ca3e

 

[Chopper0080]

Many draft profiles on Rosen speak to this.

• Decision making and post-snap reads are inconsistent
• Refuses easy throws at times
• Poor career deep ball completion rate
• Needs better anticipation
• Poor mobility
• Struggles to elude early pressure
• Completed just 42.4 percent of his throws when forced to move
• Too much hero ball

These are cherry picked from his weaknesses, but also show a lack of progression through the years. It could also be coaching but, I still contend that coaching between a players ears is completely up to the player.

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/josh-rosen?id=32462018-0002-5600-59bd-f150d938ca3e

Again, shocking that a 22 year old hasn't progressed over the past 5 years when he had 6 different OCs in that time frame. I get the poor mobility. That is a fact. The rest look like consistent coaching issues to me.

 

[Veer]

The rest look like consistent coaching issues to me.

But how long will it take to get these things coached up? It's not just one thing you have to work on with Rosen, it's quite a few things. Even some excellent QB prospects who had just one particular weakness couldn't fix it over the course of their NFL career. They often become excellent QB coaches, because they know all about the position in theory, but making it click on the field is a whole different animal. Rosen - with all the arm talent he's got - has more than just one glaring weakness.

Time is a luxury which you don't really have in the NFL. So if we give Rosen more time, the outcome might go both ways, but will in reality be somehwere in between. Then we get to the point: Do we extend him or move on? You see some of the most average QBs of this era - and even below average ones - cash in on lucrative deals. I don't want to be the Jaguars or Dolphins, who paid Bortles/Tannehill because they felt close enough to build around them and had no real shot at a better QB prospects. Both teams knew that Bortles/Tannehill have serious flaws in their game, but deemed it still worthy of fairly big contracts. Now they got rid of them. But if they wouldn't handed out those contracts in first place when said players hadn't progressed much - if at all - they would have had a decent shot at a guy like Watson or Mahomes. Same story with Dalton some years ago, although he was at least average and not below like Bortles/Tannehill. Titans with Mariota and Bucs with Jameis will face that question soon and probably pay them both, since they will see just enough ability and not enough alternatives, sealing their fate in mediocrity with the odd playoff appearance in case their defenses are able to step up in a particular season.

I'd rather be a franchise that swings for the fences over and over again, than being struck in mediocrity for all those years. Hamstrung by a FO/ownership that settles for less than being a legit contender each and every year in the hope of getting lucky on a playoff run once the chance occurs. When in reality, those teams are the typical one-and-done teams after an above average season fuels hope among the fan base.

 

[BW52]

But how long will it take to get these things coached up? It's not just one thing you have to work on with Rosen, it's quite a few things. Even some excellent QB prospects who had just one particular weakness couldn't fix it over the course of their NFL career. They often become excellent QB coaches, because they know all about the position in theory, but making it click on the field is a whole different animal. Rosen - with all the arm talent he's got - has more than just one glaring weakness.

Time is a luxury which you don't really have in the NFL. So if we give Rosen more time, the outcome might go both ways, but will in reality be somehwere in between. Then we get to the point: Do we extend him or move on? You see some of the most average QBs of this era - and even below average ones - cash in on lucrative deals. I don't want to be the Jaguars or Dolphins, who paid Bortles/Tannehill because they felt close enough to build around them and had no real shot at a better QB prospects. Both teams knew that Bortles/Tannehill have serious flaws in their game, but deemed it still worthy of fairly big contracts. Same story with Dalton some years ago, although he was at least average and not below like Bortles/Tannehill. Titans with Mariota and Bucs with Jameis will face that question soon and probably pay them both, since they will see just enough ability and not enough alternatives.

I'd rather be a franchise that swings for the fences over many years, than being struck in mediocrity for all those years. Hamstrung by a FO/ownership that settles for less than being a legit contender each and every year in the hope of getting lucky on a playoff run once the chance occurs. When in reality, those teams are the typical one-and-done teams after an above average season fuels hope among the fan base.

And you think Murray doesn't have things that need to coached up for the NFL?Thinking he is NFL ready is just wishing and not based on reality.So you think the Cards don't have time to continue to work on improving Rosen because you say he has too many flaws in your opinion.So starting all over with a undersized QB is the answer ..........?LMAO.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I am trying to avoid making this about Murray and focusing on Rosen understanding that the greater likelihood is that we stay with Rosen.

Going by that, where will he be in 3-4 years

 

[dscher]

And you think Murray doesn't have things that need to coached up for the NFL?Thinking he is NFL ready is just wishing and not based on reality.So you think the Cards don't have time to continue to work on improving Rosen because you say he has too many flaws in your opinion.So starting all over with a undersized QB is the answer ..........?LMAO.

An undersized qb with talent that d coordinators will have to come up with special game plans for...Ill take a flyer. You won't. It's all good.

 

[BW52]

An undersized qb with talent that d coordinators will have to come up with special game plans for...Ill take a flyer. You won't. It's all good.

No problem.

 

[slanidrac16]

I am trying to avoid making this about Murray and focusing on Rosen understanding that the greater likelihood is that we stay with Rosen.

Going by that, where will he be in 3-4 years

Do you really believe we are taking Murray?

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Do you really believe we are taking Murray?

You just quoted me saying that I believe it is more likely we don't take Murray.

 

[Chopper0080]

But how long will it take to get these things coached up? It's not just one thing you have to work on with Rosen, it's quite a few things. Even some excellent QB prospects who had just one particular weakness couldn't fix it over the course of their NFL career. They often become excellent QB coaches, because they know all about the position in theory, but making it click on the field is a whole different animal. Rosen - with all the arm talent he's got - has more than just one glaring weakness.

Time is a luxury which you don't really have in the NFL. So if we give Rosen more time, the outcome might go both ways, but will in reality be somehwere in between. Then we get to the point: Do we extend him or move on? You see some of the most average QBs of this era - and even below average ones - cash in on lucrative deals. I don't want to be the Jaguars or Dolphins, who paid Bortles/Tannehill because they felt close enough to build around them and had no real shot at a better QB prospects. Both teams knew that Bortles/Tannehill have serious flaws in their game, but deemed it still worthy of fairly big contracts. Now they got rid of them. But if they wouldn't handed out those contracts in first place when said players hadn't progressed much - if at all - they would have had a decent shot at a guy like Watson or Mahomes. Same story with Dalton some years ago, although he was at least average and not below like Bortles/Tannehill. Titans with Mariota and Bucs with Jameis will face that question soon and probably pay them both, since they will see just enough ability and not enough alternatives, sealing their fate in mediocrity with the odd playoff appearance in case their defenses are able to step up in a particular season.

I'd rather be a franchise that swings for the fences over and over again, than being struck in mediocrity for all those years. Hamstrung by a FO/ownership that settles for less than being a legit contender each and every year in the hope of getting lucky on a playoff run once the chance occurs. When in reality, those teams are the typical one-and-done teams after an above average season fuels hope among the fan base.

I think Rosen's weaknesses are far easier to figure out because we have already seen the worst he can be as a pro QB. I think Murray's are more difficult to figure out because they are largely unknown to a degree.

I can't say how long it is going to take him to learn how to move within the pocket so he can see throwing windows.

I can't say how long it is going to take for him to acclimate to the NFL due to his very limited body of work in college.

I can't say how long it will take for him to learn how grind at the NFL level or learn how to answer tough questions.

Rosen's height makes issue number one less of a hurdle for him to overcome.

Rosen had almost double the starts and over double the passing attempts when he left college as Murray does now. Rosen also now has 13 games of NFL experience to build off of.

Rosen has, per internal reports, already learned to grind as an NFL player and has demonstrated an ability to handle the media at a NFL level.

None of this is to say who will be better, but I feel with Rosen we already a season more of experience, the age difference is 6 months, and Rosen's issues appear far easier to correct. But that is just my opinion.

 

[POISON]

I was challenged with "I don't know what Rosen will become" so I tried to see if I could find out.

The stat that is the most troublesome with Rosen is his completion percentage. It is always the biggest predictor for long term QB success.

Rosen was last in expected completion percentage of all starters. 2nd to last in regular completion percentage.

So where can he go from 55.2%?

To answer that, I pulled all the starting QBs last year.

To make sure I get a proper sample size, I compared 1st year starting at least 8 games to the next year starting at least 8 games. This way a spot start or injury doesn't impact the data.

I looked at 1st year completion percentage, 2nd year completion percentage, and career completion percentage.

This required the QB to have played at least 3 years. This gave me a sample size of 24 QBs

Here is what I found:

The averages of all QBs were 60.0% completion in year 1. Average QB career percenrage is 3% higher than where they started.

QB 1st year 2nd year Difference Career Career Diff 1 Carer Diff 2
Completion % 60.0% 60.9% 0.9% 63.1% 3.1% 2.2%

You can see that there is typically little growth between year 1 and year 2 in completion percentage.

This is actually because 12 of the 24 QBs completion percentage went down not up.

I wasn't ready for that. You just think that guys naturally improve in year 2 but half of the starting QBs got worse.

Of those that improved, half of them improved by only 3% or less. Two were between 4% and 5%

There were just 4 QBs who improved by between 6 and 7%. That is what would be needed to get us to league average for a 2nd year QB (Goff, Keenum, Luck, Stafford)

If I remove those that were already accurate to begin with (anyone above league average), then our average percentage growth is 3.5% for QBs who weren't accurate in year one but were still starting last year.

Using that same metric, we saw a 4.7% increase in career projections.

So we end up with 58.7% completion in year 2 with a career 59.7%

The closest QB in that range is Eli Manning

If he was on a beach by the ocean, how many times could he hit the ocean out of 10 throws??? Scary thought......

 

[Ohcrap75]

If he was on a beach by the ocean, how many times could he hit the ocean out of 10 throws??? Scary thought......

What's scary is that you might be serious.

 

[POISON]

More fun with sacks

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stat/passing-plays-sacked


The interesting one is Carr, who had the least time to throw in the NFL and was #4 sacked QB with 51 but still managed a 68% completion percentage.


Josh Allen had the most time to throw in the NFL, wasn't sacked much, and was the only QB more inaccurate than Rosen. Bills are going to be drafting a new QB in about 3 years.

Rosen wasn't very accurate in college either, this isn't new info.....

 

[slanidrac16]

You just quoted me saying that I believe it is more likely we don't take Murray.

My bad Chris. I did mean aren’t taking Murray. Let me rephrase do YOU want us to drsft Murray? It appears many of your ost lean that way. Sorry if I don’t recall you posting your view on wanting Murray.

 

[az jam]

I think that KK and Clements will improve Rosen. Rosen is smart and willing to learn. He is committed. I also feel that Keim is building a better team than what we had last year. I do like the players that have already been signed. Assuming we keep Rosen, we can get some really good players in the draft especially in the first 3 rounds.
IMO Rosen can develop with this coaching staff and team into a solid qb.

 

[GuernseyCard]

If he was on a beach by the ocean, how many times could he hit the ocean out of 10 throws??? Scary thought......

A scary thought of ocean size stupidity!