How small is this market?
- Thread starter Gaddabout
- Start date
It is not that small...
82CardsGrad
7 x 70
Definitely not that small... it's about winning. See that Cardinals... don't hear them whining about payroll...
I did hear that they drew pretty well for the Giants series... though, we did suck in 2 of the 3 games.
I did hear that they drew pretty well for the Giants series... though, we did suck in 2 of the 3 games.
splitsecond
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It's 100% about the product on the field. They need to turn this around fast.
OP
OP
That's what I was thinking. It's $74 million for 81 home games. Last year the Cards had a $60 million payroll for 8 home games -- and made a lot of money.
8 x 63,400 = 507,200 tix sold.
81 x 27,400 = 2.2 million.
So the D-Backs have four times the paying audience and their concessions are about the same. They don't have the NFL TV contract, but they do have decent TV contracts. D-Backs have more costs with the minor league system, but it's not excessively more to explain the crowd differential.
*shrug*
I get they've been paying off debt, but they've been doing business on the cheap for eight years. They've got to be doing OK, even with the $74 million payroll.
There's some chatter now that the D-Backs will be sellers to dump payroll if things don't turn by the end of this month. Who would they even trade that would make a difference and would have value? The two guys they traded for -- Kubel and Cahill, the two guys that have been performing decently for most of the year.
82CardsGrad
7 x 70
OP
OP
Do you really want me to respond to that question??
Depends on how many licks of the whip you want to take.
Big Deal
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You have to give the Cards 10 games since they charge full price for the two pre-season home games.
OP
OP
I promise you, Upton is not for sale. Everyone else on that list is, though I can't imagine McDonald having any value at all. It was a surprise they kept him on this year's roster. He's a 37-year-old SS who's never had more than 123 ABs in a season. He has only slightly more value than a bullpen catcher.
BillsCarnage
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This market isn't small population-wise.
It's more about apathy from the fan base. Plain and simple.
It's more about apathy from the fan base. Plain and simple.
OP
OP
It's not a big market, either. Market size isn't measured in terms of population, it's measured in No. of TVs. The Yankees and the Dodgers can be the Yankees and the Dodgers because of their local and regional TV contracts. They're massive. When you have 6 to 7 million TV homes in your market, you can afford spend $100 million on your payroll. In fact, it's mandatory.
Detroit, Phoenix, Tampa, Seattle, Minneapolis and Miami -- those are all the mid-level markets with 1.5 to 2 million TV homes. They should all have payrolls comparable to each other. This is how they actually are:
4. Detroit $132m
7. Miami $118m
13. Minnesota $94m
18. Seattle $81m
24. Arizona $74m
Detroit has: 3 players making more than $20m a year (Fielder, Cabrera, Verlander) and another making more than $10m (Victor Martinez). Valverde makes $9m.
Miami has: Zambrano, Ramirez, Johnson and Reyes all making $10m or more. Nolasco makes $9m.
Minny has: Mauer at $23m and Morneau at $15m. Pavano makes $9.
Seattle has: Felix Hernandez at just under $20m and Ichiro at $18m. Chone Figgins makes $9.5.
Arizona has: Drew at $7.75m and Kubel at $7.5m. Chris Young (found his updated numbers) is at $7.2m and Upton makes $6.9m.
I'm not arguing that Arizona has to spend MORE, but I just can't figure out why they're complaining about $74 million payroll. That's extremely affordable for this market and remains a competitive one.
Folster
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It's not just about market size or the # of televisions. It's also about demographics. East Coast and Midwest teams have populations of fans that have resided in particular regions/cities for generations. Arizona and Florida have massive populations of transplants that maintain their loyalties to the crappy cities they were forced to leave and they raise their stupid kids to follow their team as well. Winning and time will be the only cure.
OP
OP
It really doesn't impact local/regional TV contract revenue, because the D-Backs have always had stellar TV ratings compared to similar markets. Lots of people will watch this team on TV, even if they are lazy getting to the ballpark.
That's generally true of all the Valley teams. The downside is the D-Backs signed a long-term agreement with FSN that doesn't expire until 2015, so they're missing out on the HUGE escalation of cable rights driven by college football.
pinetopred
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JMO I think Phoenix and the surrounding areas have and always will have crappy fans if the teams are doing good you bet people will show up its the place to be, the place to be seen, but if the team is avg. or below avg. you cant give the tickets away, not saying they won't watch the game on TV. And I'm not trying to pick an argument with these statements, because I have lived my whole life in this state I have seen it first hand from the Kush days at ASU to the Suns years, back to when the D-backs first opened their doors the fans will come out, but it is just a matter of time before there is new best place to be.
Homer Simpson
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One major variable left out here...average Cardinal ticket goes for around $70, average D-backs ticket is about $15.00.
So that's
507,200 * 70 = $35,504,000
2.2 million * 15 = $33,000,000
That's not including the extra two preseason games. Also, the NFL TV contract is HUGE, and the revenue sharing is much better in the NFL. Plus, if the NFL has a bad contract, they can cut him without paying the full contract. Baseball teams are stuck. Lots of differences.
As for those that want to trade Upton...just a reminder that a lot of Dodgers fans wanted to trade Matt Kemp in 2010 and a lot of Marlins fans wanted to trade Miguel Cabrera in 2007. One group got their wish, the other didn't. Guess who is happier.
chickenhead
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Payroll-wise, Detroit is in contender mode at the moment, with a motivated owner. Miami is currently "justifying" a new stadium, and nothing about Loria's ownership history or the Marlins history in general leads me to believe that they'll stay above 100m perpetually. Of course this doesn't answer the question of why Arizona isn't closer to 100m.
Pure speculation, but I think the division has a lot to do with it. Look at the playoff teams in the ten years since Arizona won the World Series:
2011 Arizona
2010 San Francisco
2009 Los Angeles (Colorado wild card)
2008 Los Angeles
2007 Arizona (Colorado wild card)
2006 San Diego (Los Angeles wild card)
2005 San Diego
2004 Los Angeles
2003 San Francisco
2002 Arizona (San Francisco wild card)
Broken down by team:
Arizona: 3 division titles
Colorado: 2 wild cards
Los Angeles: 3 division titles, 1 wild card
San Diego: 2 division titles
San Francisco: 2 division titles, 1 wild card
That's some pretty amazing parity. The teams with the higher payrolls--LA and SF (and LA especially) don't have a marked edge the way that New York and Boston did over the same period on their division. I think the Diamondbacks ownership probably assumes that every 3-4 years they'll make the playoffs as a matter of course, and the surprise of last year probably just emboldens that mentality. In short, it's almost like they don't need to try to be the Red Sox or the Rays in order to win the NL West.
Pure speculation, but I think the division has a lot to do with it. Look at the playoff teams in the ten years since Arizona won the World Series:
2011 Arizona
2010 San Francisco
2009 Los Angeles (Colorado wild card)
2008 Los Angeles
2007 Arizona (Colorado wild card)
2006 San Diego (Los Angeles wild card)
2005 San Diego
2004 Los Angeles
2003 San Francisco
2002 Arizona (San Francisco wild card)
Broken down by team:
Arizona: 3 division titles
Colorado: 2 wild cards
Los Angeles: 3 division titles, 1 wild card
San Diego: 2 division titles
San Francisco: 2 division titles, 1 wild card
That's some pretty amazing parity. The teams with the higher payrolls--LA and SF (and LA especially) don't have a marked edge the way that New York and Boston did over the same period on their division. I think the Diamondbacks ownership probably assumes that every 3-4 years they'll make the playoffs as a matter of course, and the surprise of last year probably just emboldens that mentality. In short, it's almost like they don't need to try to be the Red Sox or the Rays in order to win the NL West.
