How Will Turkoglu Be Used?

[AzStevenCal]

Turk is a good defender at the 3. At the 4, he's terrible, giving up more production than even Amare or David Lee. This is why I'm so adamant about picking up a starting 4.

As far as I can tell from all the comments here and elsewhere about Turk, one thing is clear. He is either much better suited defensively at the 4 than he is at the 3 or he is much better suited defensively at the 3 than he is at the 4. I don't know which group is correct but I notice that both groups are fairly adamant in their position.

Steve

 

[Mainstreet]

I know a lot of people felt the same as you but I would have gambled on him. I'm not sure how he'd fit in but this year/this lineup seemed like the perfect time to roll the dice. He clearly fills one of our more glaring needs and AFAIC he just becomes one of several question marks that can't be answered till the pieces come together. I look at him on our roster and really think that if everything fell just perfectly we could contend for a championship. Looking at our current roster, I'd say even our best case scenario falls well short of that.

Steve

I would have gambled on obtaining Jefferson because as you said,

I look at him on our roster and really think that if everything fell just perfectly we could contend for a championship.

If that isn't worth the risk, I don't know what is.

I also liked that Jefferson could have played both center and PF giving the Suns additional depth. The Suns are again lacking enough strength on the frontline. Other teams will try to over power them.

 

[Sunburn]

As far as I can tell from all the comments here and elsewhere about Turk, one thing is clear. He is either much better suited defensively at the 4 than he is at the 3 or he is much better suited defensively at the 3 than he is at the 4. I don't know which group is correct but I notice that both groups are fairly adamant in their position.

Steve

The notion that Turk doesn't defend well at the 3 is pure fallacy. He is actually a very good small forward defender. According to the statistics at 82games.com, last year Turk gave up 18.6 points/48 minutes at the 3 position, or in other words he gave up an average PER of 14.7 to the opposing player. This is excellent defense, better numbers even than our own Grant Hill or Jared Dudley, widely considered our best on ball defenders. At the 4, though, is where he gets smoked, giving up an average of 25.7 points/48, or a PER of 23.1. This is worse than even, gasp, Amare or David Lee. Amare, at the 4, gave up on average 22.8 points/48, with a PER of 18.8. David Lee, on average, gave up 21.9 points/48, with a PER of 21.4. Turk is a natural 3, not a 4. If Hedo is manning our defense at the power forward position we will get absolutely shredded.

 

[AzStevenCal]

The notion that Turk doesn't defend well at the 3 is pure fallacy. He is actually a very good small forward defender. According to the statistics at 82games.com, last year Turk gave up 18.6 points/48 minutes at the 3 position, or in other words he gave up an average PER of 14.7 to the opposing player. This is excellent defense, better numbers even than our own Grant Hill or Jared Dudley, widely considered our best on ball defenders. At the 4, though, is where he gets smoked, giving up an average of 25.7 points/48, or a PER of 23.1. This is worse than even, gasp, Amare or David Lee. Amare, at the 4, gave up on average 22.8 points/48, with a PER of 18.8. David Lee, on average, gave up 21.9 points/48, with a PER of 21.4. Turk is a natural 3, not a 4. If Hedo is manning our defense at the power forward position we will get absolutely shredded.

You do realize that even Hollinger admits that PER is not a reliable measure of a players defense? And even if it did take into account everything a player does on defense it would still be inaccurate because of the importance of the players surrounding the player you're rating.

Steve

 

[Errntknght]

Hedo didn't do well at PF in Toronto but then it was a bad year all around for him. If you look at his stats at PF for Orlando the year before (08-09) his stats look much better at that position - a +8 in points and +3.2 PER. I looked for stats in 07-08 but 82games.com did not have the breakdown by position for individual players.

I think this adds considerable substance to Steve's contention that who a guy is on the floor with makes a difference.

On the other hand, I'm not thrilled about Turkoglu being our starting PF as he has always been primarily a SF. The good thing is that he will be forcing PF's to guard him at the 3pt line but they'll surely make him pay for it at the other end.

Warrick is the really bad decision though, without him we'd have have enough money to get some mediocre hulk to take some of the load off Hedo.

 

[SunsTzu]

You do realize that even Hollinger admits that PER is not a reliable measure of a players defense? And even if it did take into account everything a player does on defense it would still be inaccurate because of the importance of the players surrounding the player you're rating.

Steve

I agree it isn't reliable given all the other variables, however when you look at Hedo's production throughout his entire career on every team he's been on they all show one common theme, he produces on both ends better at the 3 than at the 4. I don't see that changing on the Suns roster.

 

[Irish]

Hedo doesn't like to play the 4, but this is a team which is mostly offense right now. Even great defensive teams will strugle with so many outside shooters on the floor.

 

[Sunburn]

You do realize that even Hollinger admits that PER is not a reliable measure of a players defense? And even if it did take into account everything a player does on defense it would still be inaccurate because of the importance of the players surrounding the player you're rating.

Steve

I'm not using PER to measure defense. I'm using PER to measure the offensive production of the opponent. I also included point production per 48 minutes of the opposing player, for those of you that are not big fans of the PER formula. There is a direct correlation between average points given up/48 minutes and on ball defense. Some variance may be explained away, but not at a clip of 25.7 points/48, as this is an obscene amount, and crystal clear evidence that he is horrible at guarding the 4.

 

[Covert Rain]

The notion that Turk doesn't defend well at the 3 is pure fallacy. He is actually a very good small forward defender. According to the statistics at 82games.com, last year Turk gave up 18.6 points/48 minutes at the 3 position, or in other words he gave up an average PER of 14.7 to the opposing player. This is excellent defense, better numbers even than our own Grant Hill or Jared Dudley, widely considered our best on ball defenders. At the 4, though, is where he gets smoked, giving up an average of 25.7 points/48, or a PER of 23.1. This is worse than even, gasp, Amare or David Lee. Amare, at the 4, gave up on average 22.8 points/48, with a PER of 18.8. David Lee, on average, gave up 21.9 points/48, with a PER of 21.4. Turk is a natural 3, not a 4. If Hedo is manning our defense at the power forward position we will get absolutely shredded.

I agree and we all know he is going to spend most of his time at the 4 and guarding opposing 4's. So, IMO, it's inconsequential how well he plays the 3 on defense. In a perfect world, Hedo would have been brought in here to play the 3 not the 4.

The Suns continue the tradition of playing guys out of position. We have all seen how that plays out defensively.

 

[Vellasco]

Absolutely, performing well under PF position is going to be challenge for Hedo. No question on that. He is naturally going to adjust a few things on his defense to compensate demands of the position i.e adding bulk, building upper body, work outs for stronger legs, higher leaps for bounds, getting more physical etc... Even if you presumes it will not make too much sense cuz its on defense not offense, some habits will stick on him and his body will react to be used different way. I think you are missing one important issue in here, we are investing at least 33 mil over 4 years to a guy who used to be a creator (not a ball handler, some guys are mixing these two aspects to each other), aka P'nR master. There is a crucial question over there, what will happen on those assets after desired transition took place. How will it effect on his offense or his overall game. It looks a good paradox to me. i.e: Rashard Lewis. Former Seattle small forward stuck at PF after transition. Forcing 30 years old veteran to this, Is it good thing? dun know.

 

[3rdside]

Just my $0.2 but I'm surprised there isn't more discussion about Hedo at the 3 and Warrick at the 4 - seems a pretty logical line up and one I suspect we'll see a fair share of this year.

For the record, I haven't been this interested in a Suns basketball season for a long time and am stoked to think how it might turn out. Title, no, but fun to watch and challengers nonetheless.

 

[Joe Mama]

Just my $0.2 but I'm surprised there isn't more discussion about Hedo at the 3 and Warrick at the 4 - seems a pretty logical line up and one I suspect we'll see a fair share of this year.

For the record, I haven't been this interested in a Suns basketball season for a long time and am stoked to think how it might turn out. Title, no, but fun to watch and challengers nonetheless.

I doubt Warrick is any better. Barring further major moves and/or injuries the starting lineup for the Phoenix Suns will almost certainly be:

C Robin Lopez
PF Hedo Turkoglu
SF Grant Hill
SG Jason Richardson
PG Steve Nash

offensively they should be fine. They can run some pick and roll with Lopez. They could run Steve Nash off some screens, they've got guys who can take people off the dribble. It's definitely different from last year's starting lineup, but they'll fare pretty well. I imagine they'll take a lot of jumpshot's and they are not going to get people into foul trouble on a regular basis, but we always seem to find a way to score a lot of points and do it fairly efficiently.

On defense there are some real questions. How much zone are they going to play? Is Robin Lopez going to be able to stay in the game, or is he going to get into foul trouble quick way with Steve Nash and Jason Richardson in the backcourt. If they play a lot of zone and double-team when they go man they are going to get killed on the boards. Hell, they are probably going to get killed on the boards anyways.

My guess is that the bench is going to carry us on many, many nights this upcoming season. A bench 1-2-3 of Dragic, Childress, and Dudley should be very, very good at keeping people in front of them. The 4-5 of Warrick and Channing Frye leaves a lot to be desired, especially with regards to post defense. However they are reasonably long and athletic. As I've said before, I expect Frye to improve his rebounding this upcoming season.

It should be interesting.

Joe

 

[rordog]

pretty much one of the strongest benches if you look at it dragic, dudley, childress, frye.. warrick (if he doesn't start) but Hedo is just another asset to use in the clutch and is another playmaker as you saw with Orlando, he'll play his part.

 

[jibikao]

Hedo has had some very clutch moments in playoffs. He reminds me of Dirk a lot to be honest. He is not a strong PF but at least he can create mis-matches.

I think Hedo can fit Suns' system just fine but whether he is better than Amare in the system is questionable. Amare can dunk and cause foul troubles for the other team but his defense is very inconsistent. Not that Hedo's defense is great but if we can never get a great defensive guy, we might as well get better offense.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

I love Hedo's fit on this team and actually love Childress as well. At one point we are going to put out a Dragic, Childress, Dudley, Warrick, and Lopez back up unit and I think its going to be very effective defensively.

I still think we need a banger though, if anything just to match up with the 8 or so teams with real front court depth and to bang with. Troy Murphy and Andres Biedriens comes to mind.

What many people are failing to recognize with this team is this. We absolutely have moving parts on this team. With the 6 left in the TPE and all the tradeable (i.e. redundant) assets we have on this team we are ABSOLUTELY the front runner for next years trade deadline to acquire the best available player. If thats Carmelo, Chris Paul, or just a PF like Horford we are in a enviable position going forward.

Like many have said I am really looking forward to this season.

 

[Irish]

I still think we need a banger though, if anything just to match up with the 8 or so teams with real front court depth and to bang with. Troy Murphy and Andres Biedriens comes to mind.

My preference for a short term fix remains Kurt Thomas. All signs are that he is not part of the Bucks plans. The Bucks just traded for Brockman and have signed Gooden http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5399106&campaign=rss&source=NBAHeadlines

 

[Chaplin]

My preference for a short term fix remains Kurt Thomas. All signs are that he is not part of the Bucks plans. The Bucks just traded for Brockman and have signed Gooden http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5399106&campaign=rss&source=NBAHeadlines

I read about 2 weeks ago that KT wasn't interested in coming here because we weren't offering as much money as some other places. Haven't heard anything since though.

 

[Folster]

I read about 2 weeks ago that KT wasn't interested in coming here because we weren't offering as much money as some other places. Haven't heard anything since though.

Hmm. I wonder what teams are shelling out more than one year at the vet minimum for KT. I'd be surprised if he got more than the bi-annual exception for two years.

 

[Irish]

I read about 2 weeks ago that KT wasn't interested in coming here because we weren't offering as much money as some other places. Haven't heard anything since though.

Hadn't heard that, but it sound too much like Sarver's "Penny wise, pound foolish." Still, until KT has signed with someone, there is a chance a new GM will see the error of Sarver's ways.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Hadn't heard that, but it sound too much like Sarver's "Penny wise, pound foolish." Still, until KT has signed with someone, there is a chance a new GM will see the error of Sarver's ways.

Kurt Thomas is a great team first guy, does all the little things and is well known for his defensive effort. Scott Skiles was a great team first guy, did all the little things and was well known for his defensive effort and, as a coach, clearly values these same attributes. If Kurt Thomas really has all that much left why is he no longer in the Bucks plans?

Steve

 

[Covert Rain]

Kurt Thomas is a great team first guy, does all the little things and is well known for his defensive effort. Scott Skiles was a great team first guy, did all the little things and was well known for his defensive effort and, as a coach, clearly values these same attributes. If Kurt Thomas really has all that much left why is he no longer in the Bucks plans?

Steve

I am with you. I don't think Kurt has much left and the reason why you probably won't see teams getting into a bidding war for him or anything.

 

[Sunburn]

Kurt Thomas is a great team first guy, does all the little things and is well known for his defensive effort. Scott Skiles was a great team first guy, did all the little things and was well known for his defensive effort and, as a coach, clearly values these same attributes. If Kurt Thomas really has all that much left why is he no longer in the Bucks plans?

Steve

Good point

 

[Mainstreet]

I am with you. I don't think Kurt has much left and the reason why you probably won't see teams getting into a bidding war for him or anything.

Sadly the Suns got rid of KT a few years back when he could actually help the Suns. That was really a step backwards. I don't think KT has enough gas left in the tank. IMO, the Suns could get by at backup center with a high energy player. If only Amundson was 6'11."

 

[Irish]

If Kurt Thomas really has all that much left why is he no longer in the Bucks plans?

Steve

The Bucks signed Gooden and have some other bigs on the bench.