If the Suns get the #1 pick in the draft

[JerkFace]

If the Suns end up with the #1 pick who would you take? With the crop of players “trade the pick” seems like it would be a popular choice so I deliberately left it off. Curious to see who everyone thinks would be the best fit at number 1.

 

[Hoop Head]

If the Suns end up with the #1 pick who would you take? With the crop of players “trade the pick” seems like it would be a popular choice so I deliberately left it off. Curious to see who everyone thinks would be the best fit at number 1.

I wish you would have had "trade down" and "trade out" as options. I wouldn't trade out entirely because there are some guys I like by trading down to 5-7 range to take Okongwu would be my preference but I also like Obi Toppin and Precious Achiuwa. I wouldn't take any of them higher than 4th though.

Halliburton is another player I like and was higher on him before the bubble experience but I don't think he's as much of a necessity with Payne here now. I wouldn't let Payne's presence keep me from taking him if given the chance but I would feel better about taking a PF instead of him now.

If it can't be dealt then I take Wiseman and try playing him with Ayton. If it's not working then I shop both Ayton and Wiseman, trading whoever brings back the most attractive package. Since their games differ a fair bit I think the offers would also be different. So I wouldn't deal who brings back the best player or assets so much as which player's return helps the Suns more.

 

[JerkFace]

I wish you would have had "trade down" and "trade out" as options. I wouldn't trade out entirely because there are some guys I like by trading down to 5-7 range to take Okongwu would be my preference but I also like Obi Toppin and Precious Achiuwa. I wouldn't take any of them higher than 4th though.

Halliburton is another player I like and was higher on him before the bubble experience but I don't think he's as much of a necessity with Payne here now. I wouldn't let Payne's presence keep me from taking him if given the chance but I would feel better about taking a PF instead of him now.

If it can't be dealt then I take Wiseman and try playing him with Ayton. If it's not working then I shop both Ayton and Wiseman, trading whoever brings back the most attractive package. Since their games differ a fair bit I think the offers would also be different. So I wouldn't deal who brings back the best player or assets so much as which player's return helps the Suns more.

We seem to have similar thoughts on the draft. I also picked Wiseman. Even though there are players that I kind of like better I felt the “value” of Wiseman (either next to Ayton or as a trade chip if the twin towers doesn’t work out). I purposely left out the “trade” option since I felt it would be the obvious and overwhelming choice, plus I was mainly just curious to see who everyone had as their #1 prospect for the Suns.

 

[JCSunsfan]

If I have the #1 and can’t trade it, I take Wiseman. I just think he is the player with the most upside.

I also like Toppin and Halliburton.

 

[cwamjn]

Tough, I'm on the Obi train and might take him 1 if I can't trade it. Wiseman should be the number 1 pick though. Ultimate scenario would be to trade and grab obi and halliburton.

 

[Phrazbit]

If we got the top pick I am also on the "trade it for a slot where we think Obi is on the board". He is our best fit AND my favorite player in the draft and I don't think he will go in the top couple picks.

Wiseman scares me and I don't see how him and Ayton are a fit, I think Ball will be a massive bust, I don't know what to think of Edwards but I am not blown away with what I know.

 

[Mainstreet]

I guess I would select Wiseman because Ayton could play power forward.

I'd like the option to trade down and pick up additional assets including a pick later in the draft.

 

[Raze]

Under this scenario I'd hate to have the #1 pick.

There is one aspect that can't be underestimated when being picked #1; how will they hold up under the pressure? Over the years many of the #1 picks have talked about the tremendous pressure they are under to live up to the enormous expectations that the positions garners. Stars can handle it, role players simply can't survive under that weight.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles...f-nba-draft-is-an-honor-and-often-a-curse-too

So when considering who I'd take, and since the OP has eliminated the tantalizing potential of a trade, I would have to consider who could handle the pressure of being taken #1.

I see Deni, Obi, and Onyeka as strictly complimentary pieces. And even though I like them, I don't see how they could possibly survive as the #1. Tyrese and Killian offer too many uncertainties for me to be comfortable taking them that early. James Wiseman already has questions about his heart and love for the game, reminiscent of Olowakandi, so I'd back away from him.

That only leaves Anthony and Melo. Both have a swagger to them that fits the mold of the #1 pick. Melo has been groomed to be in the spotlight through his family, and Edwards already thinks he's the best player on the planet. Do they have MAJOR flaws? Yes. But they pass the confidence test.

Edwards just doesn't fit here next to Book. At best he'd be a great player to bring off the bench, but I can't see his ego surviving long as the backup SG.

Therefore, I lean Melo. On top of his skill sets we've talked about ad nauseum before, he's flashy and will attract attention through highlight reels. Normally I wouldn't care about that, but it will keep his stock high so we wouldn't lose value on a future trade. I see him in the Ben Simmons mold with better handles and FAR more confidence shooting (even though he's terrible at it). Melo could very well be a flashier Ricky Rubio.

 

[cwamjn]

If we got the top pick I am also on the "trade it for a slot where we think Obi is on the board". He is our best fit AND my favorite player in the draft and I don't think he will go in the top couple picks.

Wiseman scares me and I don't see how him and Ayton are a fit, I think Ball will be a massive bust, I don't know what to think of Edwards but I am not blown away with what I know.

I think Toppin would have been a top pick if the tourney was played, the way Ja shot up. If we can get him somewhere between five and ten do it.

I need to quit obsessing over it in case he's not the pick, like in 2017 with Fox.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

If the Suns end up with the #1 pick who would you take? With the crop of players “trade the pick” seems like it would be a popular choice so I deliberately left it off. Curious to see who everyone thinks would be the best fit at number 1.

“best fit” gives away the game

Fit doesn’t matter all that much at #1. You’re looking for elite star traits that transcend fit: are there any teams that Durant, Lillard, Booker, Steph, AD, Luka, Giannis, LeBron don’t fit on?

If the Suns pick #1 they should be looking for someone that has a ceiling above Booker. The Suns’ core as of now has a 45-50 win ceiling in all likelihood. If they get an elite player, that ceiling jumps to 55+. Whenever people talk about “fit” they act as if the roster is “complete” and just needs a little polish. Suns fans have a bizarre bias against picking guys with elite traits for some reason, b/c they constantly overvalue the talent of the club or think we have to “build around Book and DA” (whatever that means). Of course guys like Mikal and Cam are useful, and I’m glad we have them, but they aren’t taking us past the WCSF. They’re not the droids you’re looking for.

I’m inclined to believe the guy that has the highest probability (again a word that frightens fans here due to its latent uncertainty) is Anthony Edwards.

To start: he has elite prototype NBA star build. He’s a thick and long 6’5 225. He also possesses elite functional athleticism: jumps fast and high from multiple platforms, gets through and over screens with quick feet, is strong enough to not get taken advantage of in post switches. Finally, he has a strong base of transferable skills (dribble, drive, pass, shoot) and what appears to be a very high BBIQ.

Few other thoughts:
1. Age (19 on 8/5/20) is a big positive for him, as the Suns have now built a much more professional culture, he will be able to grow and learn at his own pace without being thrust into responsibility before he’s ready. He did all of his amazing college work (1st team all conf as a YOUNG freshman). Young players with elite physical and athletic traits ALMOST ALWAYS get better and better.

2. His shooting. Everyone looks at the 29% number and immediately turns the page. This is a mistake. Look at his volume (over 9 attempts per 40min) and his team role (everyone sucks) and consider the context of those shots. Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart are two very helpful cautionary tales in reading too much into college 3pt%. Also, his ft% is quite good at 77% for a 18 year old.

3. His ft rate. It’s really good for a perimeter player at 6.5/40. The Suns’ second best foul draw guy is Dario Saric. The Suns desperately need another player that can put pressure on the rim, on the defense, that hunts contact.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

That only leaves Anthony and Melo. Both have a swagger to them that fits the mold of the #1 pick. Melo has been groomed to be in the spotlight through his family, and Edwards already thinks he's the best player on the planet. Do they have MAJOR flaws? Yes. But they pass the confidence test.

Edwards just doesn't fit here next to Book. At best he'd be a great player to bring off the bench, but I can't see his ego surviving long as the backup SG.

Therefore, I lean Melo. On top of his skill sets we've talked about ad nauseum before, he's flashy and will attract attention through highlight reels. Normally I wouldn't care about that, but it will keep his stock high so we wouldn't lose value on a future trade. I see him in the Ben Simmons mold with better handles and FAR more confidence shooting (even though he's terrible at it). Melo could very well be a flashier Ricky Rubio.

First, as an aside, I have to chuckle at Wiseman running away with the lead in this poll on a forum of fit-obsessed people when he literally moves like he has just learned to walk and probably can’t play next to Ayton due to his greatest (only?) strength on O being to rim run and he’s worse at Ayton at that.

So, in response: I tend to agree that LaMelo and Edwards are the top2 in this discussion, but LaMelo’s shot might literally be broken (19% 3 on volume) and he doesn’t have elite NBA athleticism (Both traits of which also killed off Lonzo as a possible star). He does have a very high skill level and I love his size and BBIQ, but he has some really serious effort issues (hard to imagine considering how he’s grown up), and I’m not sure he can guard NBA stars. I’m much more bullish on sticking a guy like Edwards on Curry or Harden or Dame and saying “get him” than LaMelo.

Also, I love Ricky, but how the hell is “flashier Rubio” the #1 pick!

 

[AzStevenCal]

Under this scenario I'd hate to have the #1 pick.

There is one aspect that can't be underestimated when being picked #1; how will they hold up under the pressure? Over the years many of the #1 picks have talked about the tremendous pressure they are under to live up to the enormous expectations that the positions garners. Stars can handle it, role players simply can't survive under that weight.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles...f-nba-draft-is-an-honor-and-often-a-curse-too

So when considering who I'd take, and since the OP has eliminated the tantalizing potential of a trade, I would have to consider who could handle the pressure of being taken #1.

I see Deni, Obi, and Onyeka as strictly complimentary pieces. And even though I like them, I don't see how they could possibly survive as the #1. Tyrese and Killian offer too many uncertainties for me to be comfortable taking them that early. James Wiseman already has questions about his heart and love for the game, reminiscent of Olowakandi, so I'd back away from him.

That only leaves Anthony and Melo. Both have a swagger to them that fits the mold of the #1 pick. Melo has been groomed to be in the spotlight through his family, and Edwards already thinks he's the best player on the planet. Do they have MAJOR flaws? Yes. But they pass the confidence test.

Edwards just doesn't fit here next to Book. At best he'd be a great player to bring off the bench, but I can't see his ego surviving long as the backup SG.

Therefore, I lean Melo. On top of his skill sets we've talked about ad nauseum before, he's flashy and will attract attention through highlight reels. Normally I wouldn't care about that, but it will keep his stock high so we wouldn't lose value on a future trade. I see him in the Ben Simmons mold with better handles and FAR more confidence shooting (even though he's terrible at it). Melo could very well be a flashier Ricky Rubio.

Melo still scares me. I guess, if we have to pick first with no quality trade available, I'd take whichever of Edwards and Melo that interviews the best. I think Edwards has huge bust potential but if you can get him to respond to coaching, he has HOF gifts. And, I'd pretty much say the same about Melo but his dad adds another level of complexity to the decision. All told, I'd prefer to draft Obi at 4 or 5.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Why are people afraid drafting #1?

 

[Carolinacacti]

Melo still scares me. I guess, if we have to pick first with no quality trade available, I'd take whichever of Edwards and Melo that interviews the best. I think Edwards has huge bust potential but if you can get him to respond to coaching, he has HOF gifts. And, I'd pretty much say the same about Melo but his dad adds another level of complexity to the decision. All told, I'd prefer to draft Obi at 4 or 5.

This

 

[AzStevenCal]

Why are people afraid drafting #1?

I wouldn't suggest trading the first pick straight up for the 4th but this is one of those classes where I'd feel better about drafting someone at 4 than first. Drafting a bust at number one just sours things, on and off the court, IMO.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

You feel better about Bender b/c he went 4th instead of top3? Idk man I feel the same about it.

The difference being that at #1 you’re more likely to get a good player, and more likely to get a great player, than at every other individual spot.

The thing that sours a locker room is losing, so as long as you get a good player, who cares if you missed out on MJ (see Rockets with Hakeem).

The expected value of the pick being higher I guess leads to more disappointment if it doesn’t work out, but that’s sports: cowards usually won’t prosper, gotta take your shots.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Everyone has swung and missed at high draft picks; can’t hit if you don’t swing.

 

[AzStevenCal]

You feel better about Bender b/c he went 4th instead of top3? Idk man I feel the same about it.

The difference being that at #1 you’re more likely to get a good player, and more likely to get a great player, than at every other individual spot.

The thing that sours a locker room is losing, so as long as you get a good player, who cares if you missed out on MJ (see Rockets with Hakeem).

The expected value of the pick being higher I guess leads to more disappointment if it doesn’t work out, but that’s sports: cowards usually won’t prosper, gotta take your shots.

I'd feel better about Bender if he'd gone late in the first round and yeah, I'd feel much worse if we'd drafted him first. It isn't about courage, it's about making good decisions.

Give me a Lebron or Tim Duncan year and I'd love to have the first pick but there are seasons where you're almost forced into swinging for the fences even when you suspect you're not going to be able to get around on that fastball. If you like the pick, sure, take your shot, but right now I'm not sure I see anyone with top pick credentials.

 

[Hoop Head]

I don't think anyone here is scared of picking #1 overall, it's maximizing the value of that pick. Sort of like how Boston did when they got the #1 pick a few years back and traded down to #3 to take Tatum. They said they would have taken Tatum #1 but why should they do that when they can take him at #3, save some money, and add other assets.

There are also different salary cap implications to consider between drafting #1 and #4, and even further back. If Bender were selected in the teens or twenties then I think the Suns would have picked up his 4th year option but he was due too high of a salary for year 4 as the #4 pick. The Suns would have been on the hook for $7.45 million in his 4th year compared to $10.24 million if he was the #1 overall pick that draft. If he fell all the way to 14th though his salary would have been $4.26 million for his 4th year. Paying that for a player who is still a project is easier to swallow than $7.5 million, which should be enough to get a decent rotation player.

I also think the talent disparity in this current draft isn't that great between whoever goes #1 and #5, which is why I'd rather take #5. I know LaMelo, Wiseman, and Edwards have higher potential than most but it also seems like they all have higher bust potential. I'd rather take a player like Toppin whose talent isn't that far off from those 3 but odds of busting are less. Reaching for him at #1 makes very little sense though because you'd pay him as the #1 overall pick and there are other teams out there who would give up assets for that #1 pick because they want a player like Wiseman, who doesn't project to last to #4 in this draft.

 

[Raindog]

The bottom line is that Toppin, Okongwu, Achiuwa, and (maybe) Wiseman are the only (likely) lottery picks who could potentially fill a need for the Suns next year. Yes, they could take one of the project PGs with some upside to eventually replace Rubio. But that doesn't do squat to help in the near term, and all of those are as likely to be busts as to turn into legit NBA guys.

Taking anyone else like Edwards, Avidja, etc. does nothing to move the needle for us. Not to mention they have a high possibility of busting, too. At least if you take someone who fills a real immediate need and they don't work out, you can't be faulted for not trying.

 

[SunnyBaller]

I think picking a point guard can wait until next year , there's some good in that draft , this draft seems a bit of a crap shoot but I think alot of the big guys can contribute to the sun's right away atleast off the bench behind ayton , my favorite is okongwu but Wiseman could be a really good backup that turns into a valuable trade chip later on

 

[JCSunsfan]

If I have to take the pick, I take Wiseman. I think he is least bustworthy for the spot and would fill Baynes' role. My preference is to trade the pick (or trade down) and add a quality player that we know fits our roster. A player that is more in the age group of the rest of the roster, or even maybe a little older.

 

[BC867]

I wouldn't suggest trading the first pick straight up for the 4th but this is one of those classes where I'd feel better about drafting someone at 4 than first. Drafting a bust at number one just sours things, on and off the court, IMO.

Even if the Number 1 pick is not a bust, the pressure is on him to be the best of the lot.

There is a lot of room between the BEST and a BUST. Ironic how the spelling is almost identical.

 

[JerkFace]

Obi Toppin obviously fills the biggest need for us. It is just a shame he is so bad on defense. The question is, can he be taught to be a decent defensive player or is his defensive basketball IQ and instincts going to keep him as a defensive liability. It’s the million dollar question.

 

[Chaplin]

If I have to take the pick, I take Wiseman. I think he is least bustworthy for the spot and would fill Baynes' role. My preference is to trade the pick (or trade down) and add a quality player that we know fits our roster. A player that is more in the age group of the rest of the roster, or even maybe a little older.

If we’re picking Baynes at #1.... thanks but no thanks.