Is It Impossible to Stop Duncan

[azirish]

This is NOT a defense of dumping KT.

One of the things that has intrigued me is whether there exists a system for stopping Duncan. I think Suns fans have the opinion that it is just their tiny lineup that is why Duncan seems to kill the Suns every time they play. But in looking at the record, it seems that no one really does a good job.

Overall, Duncan shot 54.6%. What is more disconcerting is to look at the games when shot under 50%. I only found 20 games were he did not shoot well and Spurs still lost only 7 of them. Only three teams held Duncan below 50% more than once: the Rockets (1 and 1), Celtics (1 and 1), and Kings (Spurs won both).

Oddly enough, his worst game (by percentage)was against the Suns on Feb 1 when he went 6 of 18 against the small ball Suns in a game the Suns won 103-87. (KT did not play)

The conclusions are depressing.

1. No one can consistently stop Duncan from hitting a high percentage of his shots.

2. Holding Duncan to below 50% shooting helps to beat the Spurs, but only marginally (They won 65% of those games compared to 70% overall). At the same time, he shot over 50% in 17 of the Spurs losses.

3. Really tall guys like Yao, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and Shaq have some kind of advantage in limiting Duncan.

Duncan has problems with international rules where many of his moves are called as traveling and he's not allowed to simply push people out of the way in the low post (which is further away anyway). But under NBA rules, he's a very very hard to defense.

 

[elindholm]

Yeah, the Spurs are good. That's why the Suns have to try to be even better. If all you want to do is focus on how good the other guy is, there's no point trying to compete.

 

[playstation]

Yeah, the Spurs are good. That's why the Suns have to try to be even better. If all you want to do is focus on how good the other guy is, there's no point trying to compete.

perhaps this is what sarver is trying to tell us with his latest move

look, even the jazz with their purported massive frontline were easily dispatched by this spurs team.

so maybe the thought is to just play to your strengths to the max level, don't break the bank, and let the chips fall where they may.

 

[azirish]

perhaps this is what sarver is trying to tell us with his latest move

look, even the jazz with their purported massive frontline were easily dispatched by this spurs team.

so maybe the thought is to just play to your strengths to the max level, don't break the bank, and let the chips fall where they may.

It's a scary plan, ie to try to run the Spurs to death since they are brutally physical. But nothing else works either.

 

[CaptainInsano]

If this is the plan then we could be a in a lot of trouble since a lot will hinge on Diaw being in shape and playing to at least somewhat of his capability.

I guess a good way to look at it is even after this next year we don't have a trophy we might still have one or two more years. If Diaw flops again we get rid of him with the atlanta pick, then we still need to be able to clear a few more million of salary to get under the cap, then offer KG a contract.

I think if we dumped diaw we would be at 61-62 million, salary cap will probably be at 60.

*the KG for under the cap is off the basis that minnesota will be too stupid to try to S/T him and just let him opt out

 

[cepstrum]

It's a scary plan, ie to try to run the Spurs to death since they are brutally physical. But nothing else works either.

Trying to outrun them hasn't worked in the past either.

 

[elindholm]

It's a scary plan, ie to try to run the Spurs to death since they are brutally physical. But nothing else works either.

Boy, that's an overreaction. They aren't magical.

If you watched the games, it was pretty clear that the Suns had major difficulty with Duncan and Parker. They had one player who could "sort of" guard Duncan (Thomas) and one who could "sort of" guard Parker (Marion). Yes, those players will still get their stats and make plays for teammates even while guarded -- that's part of what makes them great. But the Suns have very potent weapons too.

There's a huge difference between "sort of" guarding someone and not guarding them at all. When the Suns could be credible defensively against Duncan and Parker, they were plenty competitive. (Well, as long as they also rebounded, that is.) It was when Thomas was on the bench or Marion was lazily playing eight feet off that the Spurs ran roughshod.

What the Suns needed to do this offseason, with respect to beating the Spurs, was:

1. Get a second player who could (again, "sort of") guard Duncan, so that it wasn't all on Thomas's shoulders,

2. Get a second player -- ideally a guard, what a concept -- who could guard Parker, so that it wasn't all on Marion's shoulders, and

3. Get a scorer/creator to take some of the load off of Nash.

Hill is supposed to address #3. Depending on which fantasy you want to buy into, #2 may be addressed by Tucker, Banks, or even Strawberry.

But in #1 they have not only failed miserably, but taken a huge step backward. Maybe P. J. Brown is coming and maybe he's not, but even if he is, I doubt he'll be able to up his minutes into the mid-30s on command, the way Thomas did when it was clear how badly they needed him against the Spurs.

As it stands, the Suns have two choices, should they play the Spurs again in the playoffs (which, by the way, is far from guaranteed, since now the Suns will have to overachieve even to get that far): guard Duncan with some combination of Stoudemire/Diaw/Marks, all of which will be a complete disaster, or double-team on every possession.

If you watch the games, you see what the problem with constant double-teaming is. It leaves someone open, which good teams methodically exploit, and it makes getting defensive rebounds even more difficult, which is already a major problem for an undersized team that refuses to box out.

If these current Suns were to play the Spurs right now, the Spurs would score on 80% of their possessions. True, the defense wasn't great before, and the Duncan problem is at some level impossible to solve. But sweeping it under the rug and saying "We'll just play to our strengths" is silly, unrealistic, irresponsible, and dishonest.

 

[Covert Rain]

Tim Duncan can only be slowed down. Not stopped. The Suns are spinning things like tops right now. They don't want to spend the money to get big so they claim to having this commitment to running teams out of the gym (like last year). However, unlike last year they are going to have to do it with less defense, less rebounding and less size.

Show me one example in NBA history where small ball has worked? All that is going to happen against San Antonio is that we will put up more points while playing less defense and Parker, the Flopper and Duncan average about 30 points a game. We have tried to just outscore San Antonio before with the same result. Why would it work now?

I refuse to accept the Suns are done. I have to believe that this team has something up their sleeves. If we go into the playoffs with this roster, my enthusiasm for playoffs success will be severely tempered this season.

 

[Scot1]

Don't forget that we have a [almost, at times] similarly unstoppable player in Amare. We need to take advantage of him better--I'm not saying we don't do it well now. I'd say that means 3 things:

1. Never have him guard Duncan. That means we have to get another big that can 'sort of'' guard Duncan, and not bollix our offense--either a fast guy or a 3-point shooter.

2. work more on P&R with Amare. Have Boris practice it (like earlier this summer, I think). Have Banks practice it. Have Marion practice it.

3. I hesitate to say this, but teach our team how to foul Duncan. Have one leg in front of his path to the basket, and if he turns, trip him. You're gonna get called for the foul if you even touch him any way, so send that big old body to the floor on his face. Replace hack-a-Shaq by Trip-a-Tim. I agree, that's not basketball--but then, the Spurs and the refs don't play basketball, either, and Trip-a-Tim is nowhere near as bad as sending out players to cripple Nash. And that means we need a second big who can give fouls without crippling our offense too much. Aye, there's the rub.

 

[elindholm]

1. Never have him guard Duncan. That means we have to get another big that can 'sort of'' guard Duncan

No, it means getting two other bigs who can do it, since no one is going to play 48 minutes.

and not bollix our offense--either a fast guy or a 3-point shooter.

As others have pointed out, the offense was just fine with Thomas. He got rebounds so that others could run, he set good picks, and he punished the Spurs for leaving him open.

 

[azirish]

I'm not wildly comfortable defending a move I think was a mistake in the moving of KT. I certainly hope they find someone who fill his role at a less expensive price for obvious reasons.

In any case, I think it is important to understand the impact of the Feb 1 game won by the Suns 103-87 on the Suns thinking. It was a game where KT did not play It certainly looks like they think they can do it again.

http://www.nba.com/games/20070201/SASPHX/boxscore.html

A couple of things stand out. First, the combination of Oberto, Elson, and Horry only 38 minutes (combine) and they scored among them 2 points. The Suns had a huge fourth quarter where they outscored the Spurs 31-17.

Was it just a fluke? Certainly the Spurs are less effective playing in Phoenix. On the other hand, it is not like the Suns had an exceptional night shooting as they hit only 44% and just 6 of 16 for three. What was remarkable was that the Suns out rebounded the Spurs 51-41 led by Stoudemire's 23 boards.

Why didn't this work the same way in Game 1 (also in Phoenix)? Amare getting into foul trouble really early was devestating as was the weak offensive game by the Suns. Amare was constantly double teamed, but the rest of the team did not step up (other than Nash).

KT played only 12 minutes, but Duncan shot only 50% from the field at 12 of 24. A big game by Parker and a good game by Finley were also important. But the poor shooting by the Suns hurt more:

Barbosa 7 of 17
Bell 3 of 8
Jones 0 of 2
Stoudemire 6 of 19

Once it became clear that Barbosa was "off", the defensive problems of the Spurs were reduced dramatically. All they had to do was double Amare and beat up on Nash. The Suns use of the big lineup helped in games 2 and 4; but did not really stop Duncan. In general, KT's work on Duncan was just average:

Game 2 - 12 of 20 (60%)
Game 3 - 12 of 19 (63%)
Game 4 - 9 of 14 (64%)
Game 5 - 7 of 14 (50%)
Game 6 - 11 of 19 (58%)

In theory KT's ability to play Duncan one on one was why the other Spurs did not shoot as well in the Suns' victories, but it was not enough to win Games 3 and 6.

We can argue that Marks (or some other minimum priced big) would not be as good as KT and we would probably be right. But it's not like KT shut down Duncan nor did it permit the Suns to shut everybody else down in the process. Perhaps the Suns FO believe they replace KT with low priced bangers when small ball doesn't work, since KT did not come close to shutting Duncan down.

I think they will find another banger, but I'm also convinced they will try to make the small lineup work. The Spurs big lineup is simply beter than the Suns big lineup even with KT. It is not clear that the Suns can force the Spurs to play the Suns style, but they appear to be convinced that it their only chance.

I disagree, but I certainly hope they are right.

 

[buttsR4rebounding]

...and for another problem. Tony Parker shot 3 pointers quite well in the Finals. In an interview afterward he said that the plan was for him to start shooting them next year, but he decided to break out the shot a little early. Chip England has done wonders with his shot. If he can shoot anywhere near 40% from 3 point range he will be unguardable since no one can hang with him for 25 feet.

 

[F-Dog]

If the Mafia had decided to bet on Phoenix, we'd be talking about how Duncan was washed up, couldn't stay out of foul trouble, etc.


The Suns need to get back to where they were last season, with Amare healthy and one more healthy big man who can stay in front of Duncan and absorb fouls. If they can do that, Grant Hill at SF will change a lot of the matchups, and they'll be even bigger favorites next year than they were this year.

 

[azirish]

...and for another problem. Tony Parker shot 3 pointers quite well in the Finals. In an interview afterward he said that the plan was for him to start shooting them next year, but he decided to break out the shot a little early. Chip England has done wonders with his shot. If he can shoot anywhere near 40% from 3 point range he will be unguardable since no one can hang with him for 25 feet.

The Spurs create a major problem when everything is working: Duncan, drives to the basket, and threes. But then again, the Suns are hard to stop when everything is working for them. The trick is to decide what you are most concerned about and what you can afford to give up.

In Game 6 the Spurs had a huge lead in the third quarter because their outside shooting was gold. But in the fourth quarter their outside shooting became inconsistent and the Suns got back into the game.

Clearly if Parker is really "on", he presents a major problem. But then agains, Barbosa is hard to deal with when he's "on". Obviously, the team with the most "on" players is most likely to win if they really are impossible to stop.

 

[Stargazer]

I'm not wild about losing KT, either, but I agree that it's way too early to start writing off the season. By far the biggest boost (or loss) that a team gets from one year to the next is the development (or regression) of individual players. I look at the Suns and I see plenty of room for various players to improve:

1. Diaw -- obvious
2. Barbosa -- already good in the regular season, but lots of room to improve on his performance against the Spurs
3. Amare -- better defense, fewer dumb fouls, improved jump shot
4. Bell -- ?
5. Nash, Marion -- don't worry about improving, just don't lose anything.

Frankly, I don't see the Spurs as having as much room to grow. Parker might get even better, but I don't see most of their other players as having a lot of untapped potential. I feel good about this season.

 

[mathbzh]

One problem with Duncan is that he has the passing skills to stay a huge threat even when he doesn't shoot at high %.

 

[mathbzh]

5. Nash, Marion -- don't worry about improving, just don't lose anything.

If Marion didn't guard Parker so much, maybe he could have better offensive games against the Spurs.

 

[elindholm]

If Marion didn't guard Parker so much, maybe he could have better offensive games against the Spurs.

Riiiiiiiight.

 

[SirStefan32]

You can't stop Duncan, just like you could not stop Shaq for years. He is an amazing player. Two things you have to do against the Spurs:

1. Do NOT double team regularly. Do it once in a while just to confuse him. As soon as he adjusts, you stop double teaming him. Let Duncan get his 40 points, but don't let Parker and Manu go off for 30 points.

2. You HAVE to make him work on defense. The more energy he uses on D, the less energy he has on the other side of the floor. Attack him on EVERY possession.

Beyond that, you just have to block out and grab those defensive rebounds and limit the Spurs to one shot per possession. In addition, PLAY YOUR GAME, don't wait for a whistle because it's not gonna come.

 

[azirish]

You can't stop Duncan, just like you could not stop Shaq for years. He is an amazing player. Two things you have to do against the Spurs:

1. Do NOT double team regularly. Do it once in a while just to confuse him. As soon as he adjusts, you stop double teaming him. Let Duncan get his 40 points, but don't let Parker and Manu go off for 30 points.

2. You HAVE to make him work on defense. The more energy he uses on D, the less energy he has on the other side of the floor. Attack him on EVERY possession.

Beyond that, you just have to block out and grab those defensive rebounds and limit the Spurs to one shot per possession. In addition, PLAY YOUR GAME, don't wait for a whistle because it's not gonna come.

As long as the Spurs can seriously limit the Suns offense using a large lineup, they win. If they are forced to go small, then all bets are off because that forces Duncan to guard Amare.