Is it really smart to trade down?

[RugbyMuffin]

with the right GM it is.

Agreed.

Draft picks do not mean or have value when your GM is going to pick Haason Reddick, or DJ Humphries, or Robert Nkimdiche, or Deone Bucannon because they think they are smarter than everyone.

That being said, trading down doesn't work either when the GM shows a lack of knowledge on the talent in the middle of the draft. Players like Brandon Williams, Chad Williams, Chase Edmonds and drafting small school prospects, and never EVER EVER drafting linebackers.

And when all else fails, draft an under sized player to play in the NFL, cause that has worked a lot for this team as well.

Same goes for cap room, and free agency.

If you take a look at this roster as it stands right now, it is embarrassing.

By far the worst collection of talent for the Cardinals in their history. This team would get THUMPED by any past team.

 

[BigRedRage]

id rather have something like a 7th, another 2nd rounder and a teams first next year than the 1st this year. We need a lot of players and drafting one or two extra in the top 60 is a big deal.

 

[CardsFan88]

It all depends.
Are the guys at the top worth the hype, trouble, and cost?
Are the guys a little low a better fit?
Are there teams willing to blow their load on those guys?
Do the guys behind them grade closely to those top guys?
Are we right?

It's still far too early. But it's worth a thought. We don't want to discount anything. We could have a new GM, new coach, new schemes. We might even need to draft a new QB. Or sign one. We don't know how all this is going to play out.

But we have some gigantic holes that if we don't fix, they could tank next season as well if we don't fix them. Say we get Bosa or Oliver or Williams. Maybe that's the right move, but it won't help us for anything if Rosen is getting killed behind the OL again or having no one to throw to.

I'm open for anyone and anything with our pick.

If we're this high, we have to do what is necessary to stop the freefall, and that necessitates looking at everything.

That includes trading back once, twice, thrice. That includes staying put. That includes drafting ANY position.

 

[Chopper0080]

Meh. Too many factors to really take a stance either way.

1-How many top end players are there in the draft?

2-How far do you have to go back?

3-What are you getting for it?

In this draft, I see three top, non-QB prospects. Quinnen Williams, Nick Bosa, and Ed Oliver. Oliver is more of a scheme dependent play IMO, but I could be wrong. All of these should be plug and play starters. The biggest argument for trading down that I see is that this draft is really strong with DL. There are probably 10 other defensive line prospects with first round grades on them, and i feel like I am conservative with that statement. Personally, I feel that the DL position is so valuable that you have to come away with one in your first two picks regardless of what you do early.

There are also a couple other players who I feel are legitimate players and fill HUGE needs.

TE-There are four worth top 60 consideration. Noah Fant, Irv Smith, TJ Hockenson, and Albert Okweugbunem. Rosen would benefit from a young TE who can catch. I hoped that RSJ could be this player, but his struggle catching the ball is tough to swallow. Each of these guys are legitimate prospects who are also at a position of need.

OL-Is the biggest need, but also probably the biggest reach as no player really grades out as a top 10 player. Jonah Williams is a nice player and would be good for our line, but he seems to have more of a RT or OG frame. Both of those spots are needs, but I'm not how comfortable I am just taking Jonah even if we can trade back a few picks. Ideally you would trade back to 15 and take him, but there is no guarantee that he is there at 15. I would be more interested in trading up from 33 for a guy I liked. I believe Jonah Williams, David Edwards, Yodney Cajuste, Dalton Risner, Chris Lindstrom, and Isaiah Prince are all top 60 type OL guys who can come in a fill a role on a good line.

There are also a couple areas where needs are high, but I don't see them matching up with a high draft pick.

WR-I get it, we need WRs. But, I don't see a situation where the top guys available are going to line up with where we are picking. I would target WRs in the 3rd round as I think you will see some drop, and there are guys who can fill roles in our offense right away. A bunch can change, but right now, there isn't a WR I am taking in the top 10, and the drop in talent from rounds 2 to 3 in OL and TE is greater than WR.

DB-Yes, we need a #2 CB opposite of Peterson. No, it is not going to be a top 45 drafted rookie. No, we aren't going to take a S. FA could change this, but I believe our defense is going to get bolstered in FA and the middle rounds of the draft are going to be offensive additions. We aren't taking a CB or S in round 1.

 

[GuernseyCard]

It all depends.
Are the guys at the top worth the hype, trouble, and cost?
Are the guys a little low a better fit?
Are there teams willing to blow their load on those guys?
Do the guys behind them grade closely to those top guys?
Are we right?

It's still far too early. But it's worth a thought. We don't want to discount anything. We could have a new GM, new coach, new schemes. We might even need to draft a new QB. Or sign one. We don't know how all this is going to play out.

But we have some gigantic holes that if we don't fix, they could tank next season as well if we don't fix them. Say we get Bosa or Oliver or Williams. Maybe that's the right move, but it won't help us for anything if Rosen is getting killed behind the OL again or having no one to throw to.

I'm open for anyone and anything with our pick.

If we're this high, we have to do what is necessary to stop the freefall, and that necessitates looking at everything.

That includes trading back once, twice, thrice. That includes staying put. That includes drafting ANY position.

Use Free Agency on immediate O-line needs and use the draft to recruit BPA.

 

[GuernseyCard]

I think, given the loss of their elite pass rusher, that Oakland will want Bosa, BIGLY!

So... on draft day we tell them that we have offers for the #1 pick by teams interested in Bosa. Oakland to protect itself offers us something to flip #2 for #1 and we then pick Williams.

Keep in mind, that Oakland has 3 first round picks and giving a third rd pick to flip wouldn't be much of a price to pay.

 

[Chopper0080]

Use Free Agency on immediate O-line needs and use the draft to recruit BPA.

Easier said than done. Our line is a complicated issue. DJ Humphries isn't bad, but he struggles to stay healthy. Justin Pugh is the same, but we are married to him long term. Mason Cole is ok, but you have to keep him as a starter to develop. Cunningham showed why he is more of a RT prospect, but it is tough to count on him. Wetzel is an ok player, suited for a swing tackle role.

A feasible solution to this would be...

Sign Bobby Massie and Ty Neshke to FA deals. That will give you a vet RT to start right away, and a vet LT who has shown he can be a very good spot-player. Figure out where you want to play Pugh long-term. Keep Mason Cole as a starter. Draft Dalton Risner, David Edwards, or Chris Lindstrom in round 2.

A group of

DJ Humphries
Mason Cole
Justin Pugh
Bobby Massie
Ty Neshke
AQ Shipley
Korey Cunningham
2nd rounder
John Wetzel

is an decent group of 9 guys that should be feasible to bring together.

 

[Shane]

The massive hall you can acquire for moving 2 or 3 spots and staying in the top 5 is well worth it if you have a trade partner IMO

 

[NJCardFan]

Way I look at it... three teams beneath us are going to need QBs. Oakland/Jax/Giants. All of them will draft in the top 2-7. If we can trade down with one of them and get their first this year, next year and a second this year, I'd do it in a heartbeat. They're ALL going to be terrible again next year and that's gonna be another nice pick.

Or, if Oakland is really desperate for a QB, you convince their ********* that Jax or the Giants are going to trade up for 1, and grab their first this year (#2) and either the Bears or Cowboys pick and call it a day. If you can get two first round picks from Oakland this year, to move down one spot, you jump at it without thinking twice.

Didn't the Giants draft Lauletta this year? I thought they were going to give him a shot at some point.

 

[Solar7]

As of right now, I'm against trading down. I wish there was a clear #1 talent at a position of need, but there isn't.

I don't subscribe to the idea of "let's sacrifice talent for bodies." You build up the belly of a team by hitting on mid-round draft picks, especially in a year where we'll be picking at the top of each round. Now, I'm wide open to those who question Keim, they have a point. Things have been declining. It may be time to move on. And in that case, do we move on and accept that we need to rebuild this roster in someone else's image? That's a valid question.

But I don't think your team gets better by passing up on talent like Nick Bosa. This is a team who in short order could find themselves short on stars. Fitz will be gone, PP21's future is very much in doubt... That leaves us David Johnson and Chandler Jones. I think you need to bring in someone like Bosa to generate excitement among the team. It's the sexiest of the pick we can make, and probably the right pick.

 

[Russ Smith]

I can give you a much longer list of teams that stayed put, picked their guy and that guy was a total bust. You either can spot talent or you can’t. Still multiple picks means you might blow one but cash 2.

Side question Harry, do you put much stock in the theory I read the other day about height and QB? It basically said if Herbert is really 6'6" he'd be about 1 inch over what NFL teams consider the height ceiling for successful QB's? The claim is not that a QB over 6'5" can't be good, its' that there's just very few cases of QB's over 6'5" being good so NFL scouts get scared of them, just like was discussed with Andy Dalton and redheads in his draft?

If you look, Ben, and a few others are 6'4 or 6'5", Flacco at 6'6" was the tallest starter for quite awhile until Osweiler came in and failed. Lynch was 6'6" and failed. Dan McGwire of course was 6'8" and failed.

The article was very clear, there's no logical reason why 1 inch makes a difference, but there's very few instances of QB's as tall as Herbert being good so it's something SOME NFL teams might shy away from.

I just thought it was fascinating since they were pretty clear we get that it makes no sense, but we're still aware of it

 

[Russ Smith]

I think, given the loss of their elite pass rusher, that Oakland will want Bosa, BIGLY!

So... on draft day we tell them that we have offers for the #1 pick by teams interested in Bosa. Oakland to protect itself offers us something to flip #2 for #1 and we then pick Williams.

Keep in mind, that Oakland has 3 first round picks and giving a third rd pick to flip wouldn't be much of a price to pay.

And Nick Bosa strikes me as exactly the type of kid who would tell Oakland if you pick me, I won't sign. Remember Joey held out, same dad, same awareness of what a bad franchise Oakland is right now like the Chargers were then.

 

[Jetstream Green]

I copy & pasted from another thread.



Some of you guys want to trade back with the top pick so much & even though it sounds good in theory, that’s what it is, in theory.

There’s been a lot of trade backs over the past so many years & yet I can’t even name one where the trading back team has actually won that trade compared to the trading up team.

No need to trade back away from elite talent just to end up with a big possibility of inferior talent.

The question is really irrelevant because it's not the act but the GM... if the GM is smart, both approaches work

 

[vince56]

Is it really smart to trade down?

Well it's going to be hard to trade up, Dvon!

 

[Shane]

I think, given the loss of their elite pass rusher, that Oakland will want Bosa, BIGLY!

So... on draft day we tell them that we have offers for the #1 pick by teams interested in Bosa. Oakland to protect itself offers us something to flip #2 for #1 and we then pick Williams.

Keep in mind, that Oakland has 3 first round picks and giving a third rd pick to flip wouldn't be much of a price to pay.

Based on history gonna take more then just a #3 to move up for that one spot... If we just took a three I’d be pissed

 

[Buckybird]

I think, given the loss of their elite pass rusher, that Oakland will want Bosa, BIGLY!

So... on draft day we tell them that we have offers for the #1 pick by teams interested in Bosa. Oakland to protect itself offers us something to flip #2 for #1 and we then pick Williams.

Keep in mind, that Oakland has 3 first round picks and giving a third rd pick to flip wouldn't be much of a price to pay.

The way the Cards have fleeced the Raiduhs on 3 trades I doubt they do it again! In fact, it may have been part of the reason McKenzie got fired lol

 

[Solar7]

Side question Harry, do you put much stock in the theory I read the other day about height and QB? It basically said if Herbert is really 6'6" he'd be about 1 inch over what NFL teams consider the height ceiling for successful QB's? The claim is not that a QB over 6'5" can't be good, its' that there's just very few cases of QB's over 6'5" being good so NFL scouts get scared of them, just like was discussed with Andy Dalton and redheads in his draft?

If you look, Ben, and a few others are 6'4 or 6'5", Flacco at 6'6" was the tallest starter for quite awhile until Osweiler came in and failed. Lynch was 6'6" and failed. Dan McGwire of course was 6'8" and failed.

The article was very clear, there's no logical reason why 1 inch makes a difference, but there's very few instances of QB's as tall as Herbert being good so it's something SOME NFL teams might shy away from.

I just thought it was fascinating since they were pretty clear we get that it makes no sense, but we're still aware of it

I genuinely think it's because a QB at that height almost has to throw "down" to maintain velocity of the ball, and put it in the right spot. A guy at 6'5+ is constantly going to be zipping it a few inches lower to reach his receiver, basically pointing it at the ground.

The question is really irrelevant because it's not the act but the GM... if the GM is smart, both approaches work

Bupkis. Even the greatest GM can't dictate the draft. This is all a system of educated guessing, where most everyone loses compared to winning.

 

[Metcalf Rules]

And we also screwed the pooch by not selecting Suggs (who wanted to play for cards) & got Pace & Skillet hands Johnson. Pace was solid.

Imo the safest route is picking your guy if you’re sold on him!

Only good thing about that draft was drafting Anquan Boldin.

 

[GatorAZ]

The Browns could have had Julio Jones but traded out and ended up with Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson. Triple whammy!

 

[daves]

Sign Bobby Massie

Chopper,

Appreciate your article and your knowledge of O-line play and players around the league!

But, did you forget this??

Bobby Massie was impaired, confused during DUI arrest in Tempe

After the Cardinals' recent spate of DUI arrests, i can't see them bringing Massie back. He's kept his nose clean since leaving the Cardinals so i would be OK with it, but i expect Bidwill would think it sends the wrong message, and gives cause for rehashing the negative stories from the recent past.

...dave

 

[Veer]

People acting like Bosa is gonna be a surefire NFL star we would be passing up. But he's not. I very much doubt that he ends up being the 1st overall pick anyway. This team needs much more than a very good DE prospect to start its way back to the top. DE is probably the least of our needs, and I'm not even considering the potential change back to 3-4 which may happen. Trading down, get a CB or LB/DT and a starting caliber OL would be much more valuable. If Clowney or Garrett was looking at us, a potential generational pass rusher, we should stay put. But this is no doubt a draft where you want to trade down from 1. We have to hope that a QB rises in the predraft process. If not, we are probably stuck at 1. In typical Cardinal fashion we finally have the 1st overall pick when there is no clear 1st overall prospect.

 

[DVontel]

People acting like Bosa is gonna be a surefire NFL star we would be passing up. But he's not. I very much doubt that he ends up being the 1st overall pick anyway. This team needs much more than a very good DE prospect to start its way back to the top. DE is probably the least of our needs, and I'm not even considering the potential change back to 3-4 which may happen. Trading down, get a CB or LB/DT and a starting caliber OL would be much more valuable. If Clowney or Garrett was looking at us, a potential generational pass rusher, we should stay put. But this is no doubt a draft where you want to trade down from 1. We have to hope that a QB rises in the predraft process. If not, we are probably stuck at 1. In typical Cardinal fashion we finally have the 1st overall pick when there is no clear 1st overall prospect.

If you have been watching college football, Bosa has been a surefire #1 pick for the past 2 years with a slight chance of it being Oliver. This is no doubt a draft where you want to stay where you have the best chance to draft the most complete player in the draft. Bosa is way more advanced than Clowney was coming out. Just say you don’t like Bosa.

 

[Ronin]

Just be smart.

This

 

[Harry]

But you can’t give me a list where the trading back team won the trade by a landslide can you?

If we trade back, it better start in the 2nd round.

IMO you’re starting with a bad premise. A good trade is one in which both teams do well. That said someone posted the Leaf trade. There are several examples. Here’s one,

“The Denver Broncos' 2010 draft was almost an outstanding example of trading down. They moved down twice from No. 11 to No. 13 to No. 24 (then back up to No. 22) before ultimately landing dynamic receiver Demaryius Thomas. With the extra picks they obtained, they also landed third-round receiver Eric Decker and fourth-round safety Quinton Carter.”

Better to look at broad based studies.


http://www.thedp.com/article/2013/10/nfl-draft-analysis-cade-massey

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2012/04/dont-trade-up-in-the-nfl-draft/

On the latter read the last paragraph. These studies cover much of the time since the 1990s. It’s hard to believe much has changed. BTW trading up early is typically a bad move but works okay later in the draft.

There’s little point in my mind of listing examples when a collective view is available. In the end you either pick good players or you don’t. It does seem the more picks you have, the better the odds. I’ll stand by my comment that plenty of bad picks happen from standing still. Remember Myles Garret, first pick in 2017. JaMarcus Russell in 2007. Eric Fisher in 2013. How about Sam Bradford in 2010. Even Jeff Long in 2008 was only effective for a short time. If I went back further I could list more. There are rarely sure things. In this case I actually like Williams better than Bosa if the Cards stay put.

 

[DVontel]

Remember Myles Garret, first pick in 2017. JaMarcus Russell in 2007. Eric Fisher in 2013. How about Sam Bradford in 2010. Even Jeff Long in 2008 was only effective for a short time. If I went back further I could list more. There are rarely sure things. In this case I actually like Williams better than Bosa if the Cards stay put.

Ummm??? One isn’t like the others.