Is it really smart to trade down?

[Russ Smith]

IMO you’re starting with a bad premise. A good trade is one in which both teams do well. That said someone posted the Leaf trade. There are several examples. Here’s one,

“The Denver Broncos' 2010 draft was almost an outstanding example of trading down. They moved down twice from No. 11 to No. 13 to No. 24 (then back up to No. 22) before ultimately landing dynamic receiver Demaryius Thomas. With the extra picks they obtained, they also landed third-round receiver Eric Decker and fourth-round safety Quinton Carter.”

Better to look at broad based studies.


http://www.thedp.com/article/2013/10/nfl-draft-analysis-cade-massey

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2012/04/dont-trade-up-in-the-nfl-draft/

On the latter read the last paragraph. These studies cover much of the time since the 1990s. It’s hard to believe much has changed. BTW trading up early is typically a bad move but works okay later in the draft.

There’s little point in my mind of listing examples when a collective view is available. In the end you either pick good players or you don’t. It does seem the more picks you have, the better the odds. I’ll stand by my comment that plenty of bad picks happen from standing still. Remember Myles Garret, first pick in 2017. JaMarcus Russell in 2007. Eric Fisher in 2013. How about Sam Bradford in 2010. Even Jeff Long in 2008 was only effective for a short time. If I went back further I could list more. There are rarely sure things. In this case I actually like Williams better than Bosa if the Cards stay put.

I'm confused with why you list Garrett in the same bit as Russell, Fisher and Bradford? Garrett has only played 25 NFL games and has 19.5 sacks and is one of the better young pass rushers in the league.

Or you were saying he's an example of being smart to stay put and the others were not good examples? Or you thought they should have taken someone else like Mahomes or Watson?

In their case it sort of worked out because it appears they have their QB now in Mayfield, and they have a dominant pass rusher in garrett.

 

[Harry]

I presume you mean Garret. I listed him to show a consistent win was not assured, good 2018, mediocre 2017. Which will you get in 2019?

BTW Russ QB height doesn’t bother me.

 

[Russ Smith]

I presume you mean Garret. I listed him to show a consistent win was not assured, good 2018, mediocre 2017. Which will you get in 2019?

BTW Russ QB height doesn’t bother me.

Thanks. I thought it was odd but I have to admit I did some googling and it really is hard to find anybody listed over 6'5" who was better than just ok.

 

[Gandhi]

People acting like Bosa is gonna be a surefire NFL star we would be passing up. But he's not. I very much doubt that he ends up being the 1st overall pick anyway. This team needs much more than a very good DE prospect to start its way back to the top. DE is probably the least of our needs, and I'm not even considering the potential change back to 3-4 which may happen. Trading down, get a CB or LB/DT and a starting caliber OL would be much more valuable. If Clowney or Garrett was looking at us, a potential generational pass rusher, we should stay put. But this is no doubt a draft where you want to trade down from 1. We have to hope that a QB rises in the predraft process. If not, we are probably stuck at 1. In typical Cardinal fashion we finally have the 1st overall pick when there is no clear 1st overall prospect.

I agree with most of your post, Veer, but don’t you think it could be a good strategy to build strength on strength? I mean, the best teams usually have a great rotation of pass rushers, be it on the inside or the outside, as well.

Having said that, I completely agree with your assessment that Bosa is not an unique talent, and that it would not be a catastrophe to bypass him. He could be such a prospect when the draft comes, but right now I don’t think he is even close to as surefire a prospect as either Clowney or Garrett. He only played three games this year, for crying out loud.

 

[Totally_Red]

Regarding the original question, it is usually worth trading down if the obvious #1 talent is a quarterback and you already have your franchise QB in place.
Otherwise, there are a lot of variables from draft to draft. The way it looks right now, I'm dubious the Cardinals would receive enough value to trade down.

Having the first or second pick to start day two and day three of the draft opens up real possibilities for a trade down.

 

[football karma]

its worthwhile to go back 3 years or more and look at drafts with the benefit of hindsight:

the NFL combined generally, but only generally, gets draft rankings correct. Meaning --- 1st rounders are more likely than 2nd rounders to become starting players, 2nd rounders are more likely than 3rd rounders, etc.

(I think part of that is partly about teams being willing to stick with higher round players and develop them. As a local example/hypothetical: had Hasaan Reddick been a 5th round pick -- I suspect he might be only a special teams player where the team wouldn't be willing to let him play and put up with his mistakes as he develops.)

After the general rankings and you go pick by pick --it really breaks down:

the best player in a draft isn't always the 1st taken -- even the first non-QB taken isn't the best non-Qb in the draft ( in fact, its less likely that the first non-Qb taken the best non-QB player in that draft).

Further -- when you compare the first player at a given position off the board to those selected later -- drafting teams aren't great at getting that right either -- batting maybe 50% --- with the next best player after that often times having 5-10 players at that position between them.

I think we get too caught up in pre-draft rankings and treating a player ranked #1 as somehow far superior to one ranked #5 or #8. History says those rankings are indicative at best.

 

[Zeno]

If we could somehow convince the Raiders to move up from #2 to #1 (swap) and give us #27 in return I'd consider that trade down scenario. Maybe they are so in love with Bosa we convince them we have multiple offers for the #1 and they flinch...who knows?

 

[overseascardfan]

I copy & pasted from another thread.



Some of you guys want to trade back with the top pick so much & even though it sounds good in theory, that’s what it is, in theory.

There’s been a lot of trade backs over the past so many years & yet I can’t even name one where the trading back team has actually won that trade compared to the trading up team.

No need to trade back away from elite talent just to end up with a big possibility of inferior talent.

Here's the deal though. Bosa looks be be injury prone, missed time last year and this year. He may be best pass rusher in draft but drafting an injury prone DL #1 is a huge risk. Oliver's late season meltdown brings to mind a Suh type of situation. Quinnen Williams to me isn't a generational talent, good player but not #1 overall to me.

To me if you can trade down and stay in Top 10 and still get a really good player then that works for me. I saw an interesting trade proposal on Revenge of the Birds that would really help ARZ.

ARZ trades #1 to JAX for #7, #38 & AJ Bouye

It actually makes sense for JAX as well because with #1 they would take Herbert and dealing Bouye creates cap space which they look like they need in 2019 as they are currently have under $1M in cap space according to Over the Cap. ARZ would FINALLY get their #2 CB to go with Peterson or if ARZ wanted to deal Peterson they could and get possibly another #1 this year which would help ARZ fill more holes and will have Bouye as their #1. ROTB has ARZ taking Harry at #7 but Oliver could drop that far, Devin White, Greedy Williams, Jonah Williams, Greg Little, Dexter Lawrence, or Derrick Brown are projected in the bottom half of the Top 10.

 

[Southpaw]

Here's the deal though. Bosa looks be be injury prone, missed time last year and this year. He may be best pass rusher in draft but drafting an injury prone DL #1 is a huge risk. Oliver's late season meltdown brings to mind a Suh type of situation. Quinnen Williams to me isn't a generational talent, good player but not #1 overall to me.

To me if you can trade down and stay in Top 10 and still get a really good player then that works for me. I saw an interesting trade proposal on Revenge of the Birds that would really help ARZ.

ARZ trades #1 to JAX for #7, #38 & AJ Bouye

It actually makes sense for JAX as well because with #1 they would take Herbert and dealing Bouye creates cap space which they look like they need in 2019 as they are currently have under $1M in cap space according to Over the Cap. ARZ would FINALLY get their #2 CB to go with Peterson or if ARZ wanted to deal Peterson they could and get possibly another #1 this year which would help ARZ fill more holes and will have Bouye as their #1. ROTB has ARZ taking Harry at #7 but Oliver could drop that far, Devin White, Greedy Williams, Jonah Williams, Greg Little, Dexter Lawrence, or Derrick Brown are projected in the bottom half of the Top 10.

Jax is in such a state of flux that who knows what their philosophy will be going forward. I don't believe any QB will flourish in the Doug Moreau/Coughlin empire and neither one is guaranteed to be back next year. As far fetched as it might seem Jalen Ramsey could be available in a trade scenario. Rumors are Jax has had enough of his antics. Fournette also.

 

[DVontel]

Here's the deal though. Bosa looks be be injury prone, missed time last year and this year. He may be best pass rusher in draft but drafting an injury prone DL #1 is a huge risk. Oliver's late season meltdown brings to mind a Suh type of situation. Quinnen Williams to me isn't a generational talent, good player but not #1 overall to me.

To me if you can trade down and stay in Top 10 and still get a really good player then that works for me. I saw an interesting trade proposal on Revenge of the Birds that would really help ARZ.

ARZ trades #1 to JAX for #7, #38 & AJ Bouye

It actually makes sense for JAX as well because with #1 they would take Herbert and dealing Bouye creates cap space which they look like they need in 2019 as they are currently have under $1M in cap space according to Over the Cap. ARZ would FINALLY get their #2 CB to go with Peterson or if ARZ wanted to deal Peterson they could and get possibly another #1 this year which would help ARZ fill more holes and will have Bouye as their #1. ROTB has ARZ taking Harry at #7 but Oliver could drop that far, Devin White, Greedy Williams, Jonah Williams, Greg Little, Dexter Lawrence, or Derrick Brown are projected in the bottom half of the Top 10.

Bosa did not miss time last year. I’m not sure where you’re getting that source from? 1 injury in college ≠ injury prone. When you see blue chip type talent, you take him no matter what.

Man, Oliver having a little “meltdown” cause of a jacket is nothing to a Suh type situation. Hell, Aaron Donald has had plenty of meltdowns & that still doesn’t stop him from arguably being the best player in the league. I’ll take the so called meltdowns if Oliver is even 90% of Donald.

I’m not gonna argue you on your opinion on Big Q. I disagree, but I do respect it.


Main reason I don’t want to trade down because I don’t want to draft most likely inferior players to the best & most safe player in the draft. I’m reaching here, but just imagine watching Bosa dominate on another team while we draft Reddick or Humphries part 2. Good Lord, how angry I would be. I love Peterson, but I’d MUCH rather trade him for a 1st + 3rd than to trade down from the #1 spot. He’s going to be 30 soon. I doubt he stays after his next season even though he said different some weeks ago.

Also, outside of Jonah, none of those players are worth top 10 picks, not even the LSU players, imo. Greg Little, Derrick Brown, & Dexter Lawrence aren’t even 1st round worthy.

 

[Southpaw]

Ed Oliver is a bit light in the pants to be NFL interior DL.Goes 10 -20

 

[Chopper0080]

Chopper,

Appreciate your article and your knowledge of O-line play and players around the league!

But, did you forget this??

Bobby Massie was impaired, confused during DUI arrest in Tempe

After the Cardinals' recent spate of DUI arrests, i can't see them bringing Massie back. He's kept his nose clean since leaving the Cardinals so i would be OK with it, but i expect Bidwill would think it sends the wrong message, and gives cause for rehashing the negative stories from the recent past.

...dave

We can disagree. I don't believe you hold a DUI from 2015 against someone when you are looking improving your roster in 2019. Especially at the contact numbers we would be discussing for Massie.

 

[Chopper0080]

IMO you’re starting with a bad premise. A good trade is one in which both teams do well. That said someone posted the Leaf trade. There are several examples. Here’s one,

“The Denver Broncos' 2010 draft was almost an outstanding example of trading down. They moved down twice from No. 11 to No. 13 to No. 24 (then back up to No. 22) before ultimately landing dynamic receiver Demaryius Thomas. With the extra picks they obtained, they also landed third-round receiver Eric Decker and fourth-round safety Quinton Carter.”

Better to look at broad based studies.


http://www.thedp.com/article/2013/10/nfl-draft-analysis-cade-massey

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2012/04/dont-trade-up-in-the-nfl-draft/

On the latter read the last paragraph. These studies cover much of the time since the 1990s. It’s hard to believe much has changed. BTW trading up early is typically a bad move but works okay later in the draft.

There’s little point in my mind of listing examples when a collective view is available. In the end you either pick good players or you don’t. It does seem the more picks you have, the better the odds. I’ll stand by my comment that plenty of bad picks happen from standing still. Remember Myles Garret, first pick in 2017. JaMarcus Russell in 2007. Eric Fisher in 2013. How about Sam Bradford in 2010. Even Jeff Long in 2008 was only effective for a short time. If I went back further I could list more. There are rarely sure things. In this case I actually like Williams better than Bosa if the Cards stay put.

Are we talking about the same Eric Fisher who has started 88 of 92 games for the Chiefs and given them top 16 OT production over that time? Doesn't seem like something I would complain about or call a bad pick.

 

[Chopper0080]

Ummm??? One isn’t like the others.

Two aren't like the others.

 

[Veer]

I don't buy Bosa as a generational talent. Outstanding technician, high motor, but physically not your typical 1st overall pick. Oliver would be the physical freak, but too many questions about scheme, character and positional fit. Quinnen like most Bama DL pretty much maxed out in terms of potential and not a very sexy position. When going interior DL with the 1st overall pick, you want a Suh type prospect.

I'd rather trade down and target a legit PP successor in Greedy Williams who can upgrade our ever worrisome CB2 spot immediately. Then draft OL and DL in the 2nd, since we get an additional 2nd from the trade. DL is so deep this year that 1st round talent will be on the board well into the 2nd round. For 2020 we'd hold two 1st round picks, which will only help our depleted and roster that needs young talent everywhere. Right now I couldn't even list 10 players I'd like to keep around. That's a signal that we should try to acquire quite a few additional draft picks over the next couple years.

 

[Jetstream Green]

I genuinely think it's because a QB at that height almost has to throw "down" to maintain velocity of the ball, and put it in the right spot. A guy at 6'5+ is constantly going to be zipping it a few inches lower to reach his receiver, basically pointing it at the ground.


Bupkis. Even the greatest GM can't dictate the draft. This is all a system of educated guessing, where most everyone loses compared to winning.

I am approaching the questions based on those percentages of it working out dictated by the intelligence of the GM no matter how low those might be. So the question is why even respond to the question if your answer is basically it does not matter what you do if it's a crap shoot. Just make a solitary post saying it does not matter if we trade down or not lol

 

[Chopper0080]

I don't buy Bosa as a generational talent. Outstanding technician, high motor, but physically not your typical 1st overall pick. Oliver would be the physical freak, but too many questions about scheme, character and positional fit. Quinnen like most Bama DL pretty much maxed out in terms of potential and not a very sexy position. When going interior DL with the 1st overall pick, you want a Suh type prospect.

I'd rather trade down and target a legit PP successor in Greedy Williams who can upgrade our ever worrisome CB2 spot immediately. Then draft OL and DL in the 2nd, since we get an additional 2nd from the trade. DL is so deep this year that 1st round talent will be on the board well into the 2nd round. For 2020 we'd hold two 1st round picks, which will only help our depleted and roster that needs young talent everywhere. Right now I couldn't even list 10 players I'd like to keep around. That's a signal that we should try to acquire quite a few additional draft picks over the next couple years.

I'm gonna push back a bit on this. Quinnen Williams is a red-shirt Soph. This means he is only 20 years old. In the two seasons he wasn't red-shirted, he has accounted for 24.5 tackles for loss and 10 sacks in 22 games played. In the SEC. He isn't a guy who has been in Saban's system for 5 years, finally succeeding when he is 23 years old. Williams is still a baby in terms of development and wear and tear. He is exactly the type of Alabama player you go after. A guy so naturally gifted that he starts almost right away, but declares before Saban grinds his body into dust.

 

[MadCardDisease]

The Cardinals have so many holes on this roster their only option is to gather as many high round draft picks as possible. Then they need to use them with success.

 

[Buckybird]

The Cardinals have so many holes on this roster their only option is to gather as many high round draft picks as possible. Then they need to use them with success.

The problem is there’s no cut & dried franchise QB whom scouts are drooling over!!!

Wouldn’t you know the Cards finally get the #1 pick & we aren’t likely going to be able to get legit value or fleece a team like many have ugh

 

[GuernseyCard]

We can disagree. I don't believe you hold a DUI from 2015 against someone when you are looking improving your roster in 2019. Especially at the contact numbers we would be discussing for Massie.

Yes... but maybe he holds a grudge over treatment when he left.

 

[Buckybird]

Ed Oliver is a bit light in the pants to be NFL interior DL.Goes 10 -20

Bigger than Aaron Donald

 

[Solar7]

I am approaching the questions based on those percentages of it working out dictated by the intelligence of the GM no matter how low those might be. So the question is why even respond to the question if your answer is basically it does not matter what you do if it's a crap shoot. Just make a solitary post saying it does not matter if we trade down or not lol

I guess I just see it as totally different between "smart GM" and "having a plan that can blow up in your face." It's all a calculated risk, but I think even the NFL's best GM has a really major chance of moving back with a few guys targeted, and losing them all, because you can't predict everyone else's decisions, good or bad.

Also, you know the draft must be coming up when we start arguing again, haha.

 

[ARZCardinals]

Trading down - CAN WORK...and it Can't ...depends on who you end up with (as you say 'derrrrrr')

All Cardinals fans saw trading T. Suggs pick for Bryant Johnson and Calvin Pace ....wish that never happened.

I've seen Chargers trade down and get Rivers and L.T.

There are no sure things in the draft....no matter how you feel about a player during the draft.

The crazy thing is...for far too many the dream WAS TO BE DRAFTED ....not actually to perform in the NFL

Hand a 22 year old a bunch of money and fame and no responsibilities, no mommy /daddy/ or coach to constantly check in with.....people change. There's a reason 50% of all Freshmen in college end up drop outs by the end of their first year....it's the same scenario....only difference is when these guys were in college they were busy from sun up to sun down...that's not the NFL life.

I wish agents would tell their clients THIS IS NOT THE BIGGEST DAY OF YOUR LIFE....this is nothing more than an opportunity to prove you can play with the best in the world....and believe me ....you're trying to take another mans money...they are gonna fight you for it.

There are far too many Nkemdiche's in the world who got paid and did nada....I'll bet he becomes an all-pro in 2 years...but with another team. His agent will tell him, Cardinals are going to cut you ...and I can not get you a prime deal with your stats and an ACL tear coming in....the best I can do for you is a one year 'prove it' deal....and if you don't perform there won't be anymore NFL for you....so make it happen. ...AND I BET he balls out like a freak...he'll get paid and then I'll see what he's made of...but some team is going to get a one year BEAST.

 

[JeffGollin]

It's all a matter of comparative value and how accurate the trader is at evaluating players.

There are so many variables:

GM can get the best or worth of a deal in terms of the getting value than he/she gives up.

Or the GM can get the value chart right but pass up a sleeper or draft a bust.

Bottom Line - There are no hard or fast rules about trading back, other than the GM has to get the most value from the player(s) he/she obtains and doesn't give up too much. (Throw in other factors like "roster need" and things can get very complicated).

From a Cardinals' standpoint, we're going to want to know. whether the team needs only one or two great players to contend or whether it needs a major rebuild. Also - will there a dominating franchise-builder available to us or just a large pool of very solid but not great players where we pick? What do the risk/reward numbers look like regarding a boom or bust prospect?

Is there a Joe Thomas-caliber LT iwhere we draft? Is Bosa better than Chandler Jones? Would adding Greasy make our pass defense All World?

 

[Harry]

Are we talking about the same Eric Fisher who has started 88 of 92 games for the Chiefs and given them top 16 OT production over that time? Doesn't seem like something I would complain about or call a bad pick.

Yes, keep in mind the discussion is about trading down causing a team to give up a tremendous player. Since it subscription I’ve just copied a couple of recent paragraphs on Fisher,
“Reid started Fisher at right tackle in the Chiefs’ 2013 season opener, a road victory over the Jaguars. But Fisher had received criticism for much of his first four seasons, as he struggled at times to match the strength and athleticism of pass rushing linebackers such as the Broncos’ Von Miller, the Steelers’ James Harrison and the Bears’ Khalil Mack, who previously played for the Raiders.

For his upside in reliability, Fisher’s play, for many analysts, solidified him as a competent starter, just not one who justified being the top pick in the draft. Many fans also placed blame on Fisher for his holding penalty against Harrison — which negated a game-tying, two-point conversion pass — in the fourth quarter of the Chiefs’ divisional playoff loss to the Steelers in 2015.”