Is J.J. Arrington a reach with the 44th pick?

[slanidrac16]

Arrington was just featured on NFL Access and , as all highlight films do, he looks quite impressive.
He is built similar to Micheal Bennett and is a better receiver than Bennett was coming out off college. He seems to fit the mold of what this offense needs.
Most publications have him going somewhere in the 3rd round.

I'd like your opinions.
If the Cards were to take Pacman Jones or Antrell Rolle with the #8 pick, would Arrington be too much of a reach at #44 ?

 

[BigDavis75]

I don't think so, he runs a 4.4 I believe and was the leading rusher in DI last year.

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

JJ is not a reach, I have said this for a long while now, I believe JJ will wind up being the best RB of the class.

Remember what all the experts thought about Emmitt Smith coming out of college, this guy gets a similar lack of respect.

If he is there with pick #44( somehow I think he will not be) I hope hope CARDS swipe him faster than my wife with our Visa!

 

[CardinalChris]

JJ is not a reach, I have said this for a long while now, I believe JJ will wind up being the best RB of the class.

Remember what all the experts thought about Emmitt Smith coming out of college, this guy gets a similar lack of respect.

If he is there with pick #44( somehow I think he will not be) I hope hope CARDS swipe him faster than my wife with our Visa!

I do think Ronnie Brown will be better, but arrington is GROSSLY underrated in my book. I'd be tickled to land him in the 2nd.

 

[Red Dawn]

I am glad you started this slanidrac, I was wondering the same thing. I have seen him ranked as low as the 12th best RB in the draft. He gets a lot of love here at ASFN, is it because he slaughtered the 'Devils this year, or is it the 4.45 he ran? The #44 is coming up in the mock I am participating in, convince me. I'm leaning toward Baas if he is available, and I'm counting on the Henry trade.

 

[slanidrac16]

I am glad you started this slanidrac, I was wondering the same thing. I have seen him ranked as low as the 12th best RB in the draft. He gets a lot of love here at ASFN, is it because he slaughtered the 'Devils this year, or is it the 4.45 he ran? The #44 is coming up in the mock I am participating in, convince me. I'm leaning toward Baas if he is available, and I'm counting on the Henry trade.

If we don't acquire Henry, we would be nuts (imho) to wait any longer for a rb. Even if we do get Henry I wouldn't mind landing Arrington, but by getting Henry we may be able to take the chance and wait until the 3rd round.

 

[arthurracoon]

I'd love Rolle in the 1st and JJ in the 2nd.

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

I'd love Rolle in the 1st and JJ in the 2nd.

Your preaching to the Choir as far as I am concerned

 

[Russ Smith]

I am glad you started this slanidrac, I was wondering the same thing. I have seen him ranked as low as the 12th best RB in the draft. He gets a lot of love here at ASFN, is it because he slaughtered the 'Devils this year, or is it the 4.45 he ran? The #44 is coming up in the mock I am participating in, convince me. I'm leaning toward Baas if he is available, and I'm counting on the Henry trade.

he only played 2 years at Cal and only started 1 of them, that's why he's so underrated.

His first year at Cal he was 12-15 pounds heavier, backed up Echemandu and played a lot on 3rd downs, he was terrific. Cal was much more of a passing team since they had healthy wr's so neither RB had monster numbers. After that year Arrington, on the advice of NFL people, slimmed down to show he had more quicks and speed, and of course now everyone is saying he's too small.

Arrington was I think the 8th guy to surpass 2000 yards in a college season, the 3rd in Pac 10 history, first in 23 years. Most, but not all of those guys have had successful NFL careers. Cal has 0 guys on their OL this year being touted as NFL draft picks and to my knowledge one guy on the entire OL considered a "good" NFL prospect (ie first 2 rounds).

Nobody is a lock but the reality is if Arrington had played more than one full season as the starter, people wouldn't be so skeptical now.

 

[cardsunsfan]

If we don't get Henry and Brown and Williams aren't there, that's how I'm hoping it will go.

 

[D-Dogg]

Although I love the guy below...I'd be happy with Rogers1, Rolle2, Jones3 and JJ.

 

[bills_phan]

This is taken from a Bills board with regard to JJ Arrington over T Henry. These are all 1st and 2nd round running back busts since 1994:

William Green - #16 pick
Thomas Jones - #7 pick
Maurice Morris - #54 pick
James Johnson - #39 pick
Joe Montgomery - #49 pick
Jermaine Fazande - #60 pick
Curtis Enis - #5 pick
John Avery - #29 pick
Antowain Smith - #23 pick
Byron Hanspard - #41 pick
Lawrence Phillips - #6 pick
Tim Biakabutuka - #8 pick
Leeland McElroy - #32 pick
Ki-Jana Carter - #1 pick
Tyrone Wheatley - #17pick
Napoleon Kaufman - #18 pick
Rashaan Salaam - #21 pick
Ray Zellars - #44 pick
Sherman Williams - #46 pick
Greg Hill - #25 pick
Errict Rhett - #34 pick
Chuck Levy - #38 pick
David Palmer - # 40 pick

I guess the point is that you never know if you're getting Willis McGahee or Ki-Jana Carter. Good luck with Arrington if that's the way it goes - 60% of all 1st round running backs fail.

 

[bills_phan]

Almost forgot Ron Dayne!

 

[JeffGollin]

Is J.J. Arrington a reach with the 44th pick?
It's hard to say. If you wait til #75 or #95, he could be gone. Or not.

This is where good teams "trust their boards." We're not privy to what the Cardinal draft board looks like and, therefore, don't know where Arrington is ranked. But if, as rumored, they think highly of him - & enough to rank him at or higher than #44 - he wouldn't be a reach.

The only thing that would prevent us from drafting him at #44 would be if some other player we ranked higher fell to us.

But if the Cards rated him, let's say, at around #55, there would be a high likelihood that there would be other players ahead of him that the Cards would rather have.

(Note - Although we all know that Green has publically stated his belief in drafting "best available players", I've also heard a couple of interviews where he's softened that stance just a bit; alluding to situations where there might be a dozen or so players rated within a point of two of one another; some who'd fill position needs better than others. The impression, there, was that Dennis might use "need" to help break ties).

 

[chickenhead]

Very interesting pick if we go another position in the first, and especially if we don't trade for Henry 5 minutes later. A backfield of Shipp, Hambrick, and Arrington could be wildly unpredictable, but you never know--might be something there. Maybe not the upgrade we wanted, but I think any of those guys could duplicate Smith's overrated '04 production (it was good for the circumstances, but middle of the road otherwise).

 

[vince56]

I usually work Saturdays and as such I haven't watched any college football this year. Those highlight clips of him on NFL Total Access last night looked insanely impressive. Is he always running like that??

I remember when we drafted Boldin, I had never heard of him at the time either, but his highlight clips were amazing too.

 

[chickenhead]

I saw a few games, and he looked good. It's hard to tell sometimes because Pac-10 defenses like the Devils aren't necessarily run-stuffing, so big plays can be overvalued. However, a successful Pac-10 RB is usually pretty versatile, which might be a good fit for the NFC West.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

This is taken from a Bills board with regard to JJ Arrington over T Henry. These are all 1st and 2nd round running back busts since 1994:

William Green - #16 pick
Thomas Jones - #7 pick
Maurice Morris - #54 pick
James Johnson - #39 pick
Joe Montgomery - #49 pick
Jermaine Fazande - #60 pick
Curtis Enis - #5 pick
John Avery - #29 pick
Antowain Smith - #23 pick
Byron Hanspard - #41 pick
Lawrence Phillips - #6 pick
Tim Biakabutuka - #8 pick
Leeland McElroy - #32 pick
Ki-Jana Carter - #1 pick
Tyrone Wheatley - #17pick
Napoleon Kaufman - #18 pick
Rashaan Salaam - #21 pick
Ray Zellars - #44 pick
Sherman Williams - #46 pick
Greg Hill - #25 pick
Errict Rhett - #34 pick
Chuck Levy - #38 pick
David Palmer - # 40 pick

I guess the point is that you never know if you're getting Willis McGahee or Ki-Jana Carter. Good luck with Arrington if that's the way it goes - 60% of all 1st round running backs fail.

i wouldn't call maurice morris a bust. he sits behind alexander. he's shown well when he's gotten opportunities. why do you think the seahawks are considering moving alexander? money and the fact that they think morris may be an adequate replacement.

i also wouldn't consider nap kaufman a bust. he was a playmaker. he didnt' have the size to be an every down back, but when he did play, he was pretty good.

also, errict rhett was a good plugger. not a stud, but a good ball player.

 

[bills_phan]

i wouldn't call maurice morris a bust. he sits behind alexander. he's shown well when he's gotten opportunities. why do you think the seahawks are considering moving alexander? money and the fact that they think morris may be an adequate replacement.

i also wouldn't consider nap kaufman a bust. he was a playmaker. he didnt' have the size to be an every down back, but when he did play, he was pretty good.

also, errict rhett was a good plugger. not a stud, but a good ball player.

What you say is true, and Morris might end up being a decent player. The point is, none of these guys ever lived up to their pre-draft hype. The draft is a crap shoot at every position. As a Cards fan, you should be keenly aware of that fact.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

What you say is true, and Morris might end up being a decent player. The point is, none of these guys ever lived up to their pre-draft hype. The draft is a crap shoot at every position. As a Cards fan, you should be keenly aware of that fact.

that's true. but to say that 60% of first round rbs fail . . . first, i gotta question where you get that number? did you make it up? did you pull it from an article? second, i think you could say that 60% or more of almost ALL positions drafted in the first round fail to live up to their hype. i don't think rb is all that more volatile a position to draft high than most others. maybe oline is an exception to that rule, but few others are it seems.

 

[Mulli]

Jermaine Fazande - #60 pick, that guy got pre-draft hype? Who is he again?

 

[JeffGollin]

Those highlight clips of him on NFL Total Access last night looked insanely impressive.
I saw those clips too. What impressed me was (a) his lower body strength (for his size), (b) how he ran with low pad level through the hole and (c) how he straightened up in order to maximize his speed once he was in the open field outracing defenders.

 

[bills_phan]

that's true. but to say that 60% of first round rbs fail . . . first, i gotta question where you get that number? did you make it up? did you pull it from an article? second, i think you could say that 60% or more of almost ALL positions drafted in the first round fail to live up to their hype. i don't think rb is all that more volatile a position to draft high than most others. maybe oline is an exception to that rule, but few others are it seems.

It's a number I've heard used before. I can't attest to the validity of it, but I'm sure you could run the numbers and it wouldn't be too far off. It's pretty subjective anyway - how do you define failure?

The point is, it's usually better to go with a proven commodity than a relative unknown.

 

[bills_phan]

Jermaine Fazande - #60 pick, that guy got pre-draft hype? Who is he again?

A late second round pick who, obviously, didn't quite pan out. If he did, you probably would have heard of him. He was drafted by New England in 1999. I think he's still on the team, but definately not a franchise back.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

The point is, it's usually better to go with a proven commodity than a relative unknown.

can't disagree with you there.