I don't think Dirk deserves it. His numbers are fairly horrible. If Dirk gets this MVP than Barkley should have had 7 mvp's and Karl Malone, about 10?
Granted it's a different era, but considering there are fewer big people to contend with Dirk, I think this era should therefore be easier to dominate if you are a big.
67 wins was great, they are a great team, but take dirk out, and they're still a great team, that would win 62 games. Take nash away from the suns, and we win 50. Not that we don't have the talent, just he's more VALUABLE to us as a PLAYER than dirk is to the Mavs.
This is just political blowback because they want a big guy getting it, even though it isn't deserved, the desire for a fresh face to receive it, some people don't think nash deserves to be in the same sentence of some of the greats, etc. This is a completely b.s. year.
If dirk is such an mvp, I don't think people would be saying 'I wish I could change my vote'. I think the wide feeling of voters facing that, means...they bit on the hype of Dirk, and not the amazing way Nash played this year.
Also you have to factor in all the people who wasted their votes imho for people like kobe. Kobe may be the best 1 on 1 player, but not the most valuable player. Any player that has the ability to average more points than wins for the team in a year cannot be considered MVP. Especially when many times the games he doesn't jack up that many shots, they win or make the games close and competitive.
That said, I hold out hope that a few people turned in their ballots late. I thought I heard them say during the game that you can't change it, 'if you've already turned it in'. That leads me to hope that a good 10-20 percent of the vote's might be a few days late. If they were, I'd suspect most to go towards Nash.
That said, I'd say it's a 90-95 percent chance Dirk gets it.