Is the Wildcard Out of Reach?

[AZ Native]

Mathematically. NO. Realistically, YES (IMHO). And here is why.

We are 3.5 games out of the last wildcard spot. We have 39 games left. That sounds like plenty to move up, right? Not really. There are only 2 wildcard spots and there are 6 teams ahead of us. All are over .500 and quite frankly they are all probably better than this team.

If there were only 2 teams ahead of us and we were 3.5 games behind, it would be much easier to move up. We win 4 games and one of the teams ahead of us loses 4 games and we are suddenly the 2nd wildcard team. However, the math does not work that way with 6 teams ahead of us. We need them all to lose (and that never happens as we all play each other). Also, we are hovering around .500 all year and we are not going to pass 5 teams doing that. The 6 teams playing over.500 make the math crazy. It is like we are 12 games behind.

There was a quote I read many years ago from a manager (maybe Sparky, I'm not sure) who said something like "If you are in second place and you are 3 games behind, you can catch them in 3 games. But if you are 3 games back from first place and there 4 teams ahead of you, it is like being 12 games behind because of the math. I am paraphrasing. I read that quote many years ago and it was from Sparky, or some other "character" manager.

Perhaps one of you know the quote and who made it. I'm just going from memory but it makes perfect sense (to me) in our situation.

On top of that the 2 wildcard teams will probably use their ace in the one game playoff and then they will have to face the rested Dodger pitching. Good luck with that. We used Greinke and Ray against the Rockies 2 years ago and did not stand a chance in the Dodger series facing Kershaw and the rest.

What are your thoughts?

 

[AZCB34]

Not likely to get there. I would guess they would need go 23-16 or better and they would need several teams to tread water or worse. Not optimal.

This team can't contend for the NL pennant right now let alone a world championship. As far as I am concerned the wild card means little at this point but a quick painful exit at the hands of the Dodgers

 

[Azjose86]

The way this team has been playing all year. Then yes, no chance. They would have to go in a few 4-5 game winning streaks. This team lacks leadership and focus. They have good talent, but they need someone in the locker room that can lead. That's why you see so much inconsistencies.

They also need better pitching and a better pitching coach. I'm excited to see what this team does next year.

 

[Ronin]

The past two WC game winners (Dbacks & Rockies) have been swept in the next round. Let’s not repeat history.

 

[BC867]

I wish I could post a more optimistic response.

The D-backs, unfortunately, have been a STEADY .500 team,
but whose starting and relief pitching are now in decline.

There is not one starter or closer (7-8-9), let alone five and
three, who could get us to one of the two Wild Card spots.
That is eight pitching spots at which we are deficient.

And we are a team that does not dominate at home.

The offense is inconsistent. It has been the best and it has
been the worst, changing extremely from game to game.

With only 1.5 position players who are set at their position.

Ahmed at SS and, not to the same degree, Peralta in LF.
The rest are up for grabs every day. Even though some
will start somewhere. Which is probably the cause for its
sloppy fielding.

The best we can hope for is not falling below mediocre. Even
that won't get us past all but one of the teams competing for
the two Wild Card spots.

It is not about how "good" or "bad" a team is, but are they
better than their opponents most of the time? Sadly, the
ongoing .500 record says 'no'.

I am not saying that we should have kept Greinke but, for
the rest of this season, that was throwing in the towel.

 

[AZ Native]

What is really weird is where would we be with competent relievers? How many games have the starting pitchers left with the lead and then the bullpen blows it. If we had won even half of those games they would be chasing us for the wildcard spots. Yeah, I know we have a lot of other problems but that alone would put us right there. Look how many times Greinke pitched a gem and did not get the win. Frustrating.

 

[AZCB34]

What is really weird is where would we be with competent relievers? How many games have the starting pitchers left with the lead and then the bullpen blows it. If we had won even half of those games they would be chasing us for the wildcard spots. Yeah, I know we have a lot of other problems but that alone would put us right there. Look how many times Greinke pitched a gem and did not get the win. Frustrating.

I think it's fair to say other teams might be chasing the Dbacks but so many teams can say the same thing...plus they still wouldn't be an elite team.

The failures of this bullpen also had effect of how Hazen approached the trade deadline

 

[Broseph]

This team is done

 

[AZCB34]

This team is done

I think they have really been done for some time and the organization just wouldn't accept it

 

[BC867]

I think they have really been done for some time and the organization just wouldn't accept it

Or did they accept it when they traded Greinke?

 

[AZCB34]

Or did they accept it when they traded Greinke?

Maybe but at the time I felt like they were offered a deal they simply couldn't walk away from so they pulled the trigger.

Put a different way, I don't believe they were actively shopping Greinke

 

[AZ Native]

I think it's fair to say other teams might be chasing the Dbacks but so many teams can say the same thing...plus they still wouldn't be an elite team.

The failures of this bullpen also had effect of how Hazen approached the trade deadline

I believe our bullpen has has been the worse. Just my opinion watching them blow up so many games.

 

[82CardsGrad]

Rome wasn’t built overnight... Hazen is in year 3 of his reconstruction. He has already transformed our farm system. He locked in players like Escobar and Marte. He astutely grabbed Carson Kelly and Luke Weaver in the Goldy trade.
Gallen could be another excellent move.
The pen will be addressed for sure. Hazen will need to deal with Chafin and Archie. And I’m certain he will continue to add depth.
Ahmed needs to be extended...

Anyway - nobody really expected this team to be a playoff team this season. It’s been more fun than not, at least for me... Next year we should be an 85 win (or more) team and hopefully that’s enough to get into October baseball...

 

[AZ Native]

I appreciate your optimism 82. Yes, our farm system is light years ahead of where it was last year. Our trades have brought in excellent prospects. We have to improve our bullpen and our starting pitching. We have some very good every day players who can play many positions. That is the way the future is heading. The days of set lineups are gone. They are paid as professionals and should be able to perform as such based on the team needs. If they see a lineup card and are upset, that is on them. It's not that hard, I played 9 positions in Little League in the 50's and 60's and did what was asked of me, and never did I complain about having a role. I hit the ball to all fields. My role was to help the team win. I think Hazen has done a very good job of building for the future without selling everyone off. Torey is a work in progress but seems to be the right manager at this time for this team. I look forward to the next couple of years.

 

[Brian]

It was out of reach before the season started. This was never a playoff team.

 

[BC867]

Maybe but at the time I felt like they were offered a deal they simply couldn't walk away from so they pulled the trigger.

Put a different way, I don't believe they were actively shopping Greinke

I've been thinking about what you posted. And I have to add . . .

But they had to know that trading our ace and only reliable
starting pitcher clearly meant rebuild, not post-season.

With his high pitch counts, no one expected Robbie Ray to
be The Man. It is something he would have to overcome,
which is not easy for a strikeout pitcher who, by definition,
has to let the count play out on each batter. As it has.

 

[AZCB34]

I've been thinking about what you posted. And I have to add . . .

But they had to know that trading our ace and only reliable
starting pitcher clearly meant rebuild, not post-season.

With his high pitch counts, no one expected Robbie Ray to
be The Man. It is something he would have to overcome,
which is not easy for a strikeout pitcher who, by definition,
has to let the count play out on each batter. As it has.

But then they got Leake. If they believed they were in pure rebuild mode, they should know there is no logic in trading for Leake. You throw in the towel, promote some youngster(s) and you play out the string.

Hazen, I believe, still felt like they could grab the wild card spot and that is why he made the Leake move. To me, that has the only logical reason for getting Leake.

 

[gimpy]

To me, there was no logical reason for them to get Leake. None.

 

[az jam]

To me, there was no logical reason for them to get Leake. None.

Agree, he has pitched terrible so far for the DBacks. IMO he is not a keeper.

 

[AZCB34]

To me, there was no logical reason for them to get Leake. None.

I agree...unless you are still chasing the wild card. Hazen was put in a bad spot with the team hanging in the race and the teams in front of them doing everything in their power to keep them in the race.

I don't really fault Hazen but the results speak for themselves.

 

[Broseph]

I think they picked up Leake so they could remain somewhat competitive and have another veteran arm on the staff. However, I don't think Hazen believed he would be this terrible.

 

[Ronin]

I thought we got Leake for Salary relief.

 

[Bob M]

I think they have really been done for some time and the organization just wouldn't accept it

If their manager could take off his rose colored glasses and see things as they truly are this team could be in the thick of a wildcard race. He refuses to criticize lackluster performances of his players. He insisted the bullpen is A-OK, it is not. Archie should be mopping up games in Reno. Starters and bullpen vastly overrated. Greg Holland was a complete disaster and they stuck with him until he imploded because Luvello knew he was just about to turn the corner!!
Well we all saw how that turned out.

 

[AZ Native]

I don't see other mangers criticizing their players in public. I have no idea what goes on behind the scenes but that is the place to do it.

 

[BC867]

I don't see other mangers criticizing their players in public. I have no idea what goes on behind the scenes but that is the place to do it.

To recap my reaction to your similar post in the game thread, is he doing it?

Is he being honest with himself and the players for whom he's responsible?

The overall game results seem to say 'no'. The same mistakes occur over
and over.

Mr. Rogers Neighborhood does not work in professional sports.

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