JJ Watt signs with AZ

[Chopper0080]

For those who value negative plays created for front seven defensive players, here is why this all looks to potentially work.

2020
Haason Reddick 15 TFLs (T-5th) and 12.5 sacks = 27.5 negative plays created
JJ Watt 14 TFLs (T-8th) and 5 sacks = 19 negative plays created
Jordan Hicks 11 TFLs (T-21st) and 0 sacks = 11 negative plays created

2019
Jordan Phillips 13 TFLs (T-16th) and 9.5 sacks = 22.5 negative plays created
Markus Golden 13 TFLs (T-16th) and 10 sacks = 23 negative plays created
Chandler Jones 11 TFLs (T-30th) and 19 sacks = 30 negative plays created
Jordan Hicks 11 TFLs (T-30th) and 1.5 sacks = 12.5 negative plays created

The point being that if you believe (like me) that modern defense is predominantly red zone / 3rd down / 4th down / negative plays / QB pressures / turnovers. ... we have a bunch of guys can do that if we bring them all back.

This is why I say it doesn't make sense to cut Phillips. He wasn't healthy and the last time he was on a good line, he wrecked havoc because he can win one-on-ones.

For those who don't love Hicks. I feel he will look better with Simmons next to him vs Campbell.

 

[Chopper0080]

Not a great year for guys on the defensive line. EDGE players...sure. But that is not what Watt brings.

 

[Cheesebeef]

17 tackles for a loss are basically sacks

First, Watt had 14 TFL. Second, using the extrapolation above, I guess Reddick had 27.5 sacks. That little game goes for every defensive player if you want to start awarding TFL as sacks.

this like when people defend DA for not blocking shots, because he alters others... as if the good shot blockers in the league don’t do the same while blocking more shots.

 

[AZman5103]

For those who value negative plays created for front seven defensive players, here is why this all looks to potentially work.

2020
Haason Reddick 15 TFLs (T-5th) and 12.5 sacks = 27.5 negative plays created
JJ Watt 14 TFLs (T-8th) and 5 sacks = 19 negative plays created
Jordan Hicks 11 TFLs (T-21st) and 0 sacks = 11 negative plays created

2019
Jordan Phillips 13 TFLs (T-16th) and 9.5 sacks = 22.5 negative plays created
Markus Golden 13 TFLs (T-16th) and 10 sacks = 23 negative plays created
Chandler Jones 11 TFLs (T-30th) and 19 sacks = 30 negative plays created
Jordan Hicks 11 TFLs (T-30th) and 1.5 sacks = 12.5 negative plays created

The point being that if you believe (like me) that modern defense is predominantly red zone / 3rd down / 4th down / negative plays / QB pressures / turnovers. ... we have a bunch of guys can do that if we bring them all back.

This is why I say it doesn't make sense to cut Phillips. He wasn't healthy and the last time he was on a good line, he wrecked havoc because he can win one-on-ones.

For those who don't love Hicks. I feel he will look better with Simmons next to him vs Campbell.

I wouldnt be surprised to see us make another addition to the LB corp. If a talent like Micah Parsons is there at 16....or Zaven Collins in the 2nd? Either one could be Hicks eventual replacement and would make a nice combo with Simmons.

 

[BritCard]

I think it's more likely Reddick and PP21 are gone...Free up money to go after another WR in FA (Curtis Samuel or JuJu, who'd be an awesome #2) and draft heavy on CB, LB and OL and RB.

The only possible way I can see Reddick staying is if they give him a long term deal. Something like 4 years. That's structured in such a way that it's heavily back loaded.

But I don't know why he would want to. His snap count is obviously going to be way down to CJ back and Watt signing and he can go elsewhere and likely start.

 

[BritCard]

I wouldnt be surprised to see us make another addition to the LB corp. If a talent like Micah Parsons is there at 16....or Zaven Collins in the 2nd? Either one could be Hicks eventual replacement and would make a nice combo with Simmons.

I'd love to get Collins. Him and Simmons at ILB would be sweet. The more I watch him the more I'd have no issue with him at #16.

 

[Dback Jon]

Hopefully PP21 will see that having a great DL will make him look better, and be willing to take a one-year bargain deal in hopes of putting up good stats for a better deal in 2022

 

[Chris_Sanders]

First, Watt had 14 TFL. Second, using the extrapolation above, I guess Reddick had 27.5 sacks. That little game goes for every defensive player if you want to start awarding TFL as sacks.

this like when people defend DA for not blocking shots, because he alters others... as if the good shot blockers in the league don’t do the same while blocking more shots.

Sure I am fine with that. It gives a more complete picture of the player. Negative plays creator.

We really need like a QBR / PER metric that adds in pressures and hits at a lower rate

 

[Chopper0080]

The only possible way I can see Reddick staying is if they give him a long term deal. Something like 4 years. That's structured in such a way that it's heavily back loaded.

But I don't know why he would want to. His snap count is obviously going to be way down to CJ back and Watt signing and he can go elsewhere and likely start.

My guess is that if Reddick and Golden come back, Jones is the one whose snap could is adjusted a bit. Same with Watt. You want enough depth to be able to ensure your vets are fresh to be able to make big plays at the end of games and in critical situations.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

They are recorded separately. Donald falls under DT stats. Watt under Edge.

If you combined them then Donald is top for sure. Watt doubled on about 31% of plays.

When I see the phrase 'most double teamed in the NFL' I think of all positions, but it makes sense to separate them all by position...

 

[Chris_Sanders]

this like when people defend DA for not blocking shots, because he alters others... as if the good shot blockers in the league don’t do the same while blocking more shots.

Except tackles for a loss are tracked and measurable.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Sure I am fine with that. It gives a more complete picture of the player. Negative plays creator.

We really need like a QBR / PER metric that adds in pressures and hits at a lower rate

Absolutely, especially if/when those plays result in an incomplete pass, INT, etc...

 

[Chopper0080]

I wouldnt be surprised to see us make another addition to the LB corp. If a talent like Micah Parsons is there at 16....or Zaven Collins in the 2nd? Either one could be Hicks eventual replacement and would make a nice combo with Simmons.

While I like the players I don't know that we will be able to do enough in FA to afford the ability to take an ILB at 16.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Except tackles for a loss are tracked and measurable.

you totally missed the point.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I got your point but I don't agree with it. A negative play is a negative play.

 

[DVontel]

While I like the players I don't know that we will be able to do enough in FA to afford the ability to take an ILB at 16.

lol everyone in the FO needs to be fired if we take another ILB in the first round.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I got your point but I don't agree with it. A negative play is a negative play.

no. You don’t get my point. I’m not taking anything away from TFL. I’m saying the big pass rushers get sacks AND TFL. If you apply TFL to sacks for Watt, you need to do the same for all defensive linemen and edge rushers.

so he had a total of 19 last year total negative plays. Reddick had 27.5. Yet we decide to blow that much scratch on a guy five years older and two back surgeries worse off. I think it’s going to bite us in the ass. Paying that much money to someone who’s been habitually broken down in 3 of his last 5 seasons and hasn’t been dominant in three, while increasing in age is a recipe for disaster. One you’d think this team would be full of with the way we continually spend money on breaking down players and expect them to find a fountain of youth here.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Sure I am fine with that. It gives a more complete picture of the player. Negative plays creator.

We really need like a QBR / PER metric that adds in pressures and hits at a lower rate

This is me again stating I am fine with adding TFL and Sacks to all players as a measurement of their effectiveness.

I am not at all understanding how agreeing with you is an issue

 

[Ronin]

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[Ronin]

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[MadCardDisease]

strahan didn’t have multiple back surgeries. And in Strahan’s two previous seasons before getting 18 sacks, he had 11 and 22 sacks.

In Watt’s last two seasons, he’s had 4 and 5. That doesn’t exactly give me hope for a Strahan-like resurgence.

Jesus... I just looked at Watt’s last FIVE years and it is actually horrific from a health and production standpoint.

2016 - 1.5 Sacks
2017 - 0 sacks
2018 - 16 sacks
2019 - 4 sacks
2020 - 5 sacks

so, whether due to injury or just not being as effective even when healthy, we just gave a massive salary to a guy with two back surgeries under his belt who has a grand total of 26 sacks... OVER FIVE YEARS.

yeah. I know I said I was going to be optimistic. But that was short lived. I think this is an absolutely idiotic overpay for a guy who’s not nearly what he was once was in his play on the field or his health off it.

Last year JJ Watt played 1013 snaps for the Texans. He proved that he could stay healthy and that was with no help (name a Texan defensive player other than Watt?).

You can't look at one stat and say that a player is not productive or effective.

Watt is disruptive in all aspects of the game (Sacks, Batted balls, Tackles for loss,etc) and he commanded a double team on almost every play. He was the only player opposing teams had to game plan for.

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[DVontel]

I kind of agree with Cheese, but in Watt’s defense, he was playing along dogshhhhhh on that front 4 in Houston the last two years. With Chandler & hopefully Reddick back, he won’t have all the attention on him again.

 

[AZman5103]

While I like the players I don't know that we will be able to do enough in FA to afford the ability to take an ILB at 16.

I agree. Parsons is a legit stud...if he is still there at #16 I think he has to at least get consideration.

Collins would be nice, but seems to a luxury.

 

[BritCard]

My guess is that if Reddick and Golden come back, Jones is the one whose snap could is adjusted a bit. Same with Watt. You want enough depth to be able to ensure your vets are fresh to be able to make big plays at the end of games and in critical situations.

Sure, but both are going to be playing 75-80% of snaps. That's still a major snap reduction for Reddick.

 

[Chopper0080]

no. You don’t get my point. I’m not taking anything away from TFL. I’m saying the big pass rushers get sacks AND TFL. If you apply TFL to sacks for Watt, you need to do the same for all defensive linemen and edge rushers.

so he had a total of 19 last year total negative plays. Reddick had 27.5. Yet we decide to blow that much scratch on a guy five years older and two back surgeries worse off. I think it’s going to bite us in the ass. Paying that much money to someone who’s been habitually broken down in 3 of his last 5 seasons and hasn’t been dominant in three, while increasing in age is a recipe for disaster. One you’d think this team would be full of with the way we continually spend money on breaking down players and expect them to find a fountain of youth here.

Reddick was tied for 5th among LBs last year in TFLs. Watt was tied for 3rd among DL last year in TFLs.

My point is that they play different positions and do different things for the defense because of the positions they play.