Justin Upton Thread

Brandon_Webb

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And assuming we don't sign drew where do you think we would put him? BA thinks he would be a tremendous Center Fielder because he has a 6.6 60 yard dash time.
 

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BA on Upton:
Scouts have seen Upton play against premium competition for years now, and he’s finally draft-eligible. Justin’s tools are similar to those of his older brother, who reached the major leagues after less than two years in the minors, though Justin is faster and physically stronger than B.J. at the same age.

While B.J. Upton’s defense at shortstop was shaky in the high minors and major leagues and has caused skepticism about his ability to remain at the position, those questions started earlier for Justin Upton. His throwing motion produces erratic, inaccurate throws at short too often for many scouts, who say his tools profile better in center field. There, his 6.3-second speed over 60 yards and natural instincts could make him a premium defender.

“There’s no question that the Uptons are unprecedented in terms of that kind of talent in a family going so close together in the draft,” said Royals scouting director Daric Ladnier, whose club selects second overall.

Heavily Exposed

Ladnier’s Royals have special insight into the Uptons, as their father Manny was a bird-dog scout for the organization until four years ago, when the Royals dropped their associate scouts in a cost-cutting move. However, they may not get the chance to draft Upton. The Diamondbacks pick first overall for the first time in their history, and while they have used their first pick on a high school player only once under scouting director Mike Rizzo—in 2002, with prep shortstop Sergio Santos—Upton is a special case.

“The industry has a level of comfort with him that you don’t often find with high school players,” Rizzo said.
 

coyoteshockeyfan

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Draft Upton eh? I guess we might as well build a monopoly on outfield prospects that can flat out hit. :D
 
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Brandon_Webb

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coyoteshockeyfan said:
Draft Upton eh? I guess we might as well build a monopoly on outfield prospects that can flat out hit. :D
That would be so amazing wouldn't it?

LF Conor CF Upton RF Q

haha. Then we can draft buck for good measures.
 

Ryanwb

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Brandon_Webb said:
That would be so amazing wouldn't it?

LF Conor CF Upton RF Q

haha. Then we can draft buck for good measures.

We'd be the Colorado Rockies of the '90s... all bats, no pitching.
 

coyoteshockeyfan

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Brandon_Webb said:
That would be so amazing wouldn't it?

LF Conor CF Upton RF Q

haha. Then we can draft buck for good measures.

Not to mention mid tier guys like Terrero, Williams, Kroeger, and Zeringue, which is kind of what makes me want to hold back on drafting an outfielder with the #1 pick since there is already a stockpile of them. However, Upton could be a special player too good not to draft.
 

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BA discusses Boras and the Drew non-signing:
No one—no team, no executive, no player—had a better offseason than Scott Boras.
The Tigers’ signing of Magglio Ordonez capped a winter when Boras clients got one big contract after another: Carlos Beltran, Adrian Beltre, Derek Lowe, Jason Varitek.

But even Boras wasn’t perfect. His two top clients from the 2004 draft, righthander Jered Weaver and shortstop Stephen Drew, remain unsigned. Weaver, drafted 12th overall out of Long Beach State, is still negotiating with the Angels, and the sides appear to have made progress. The Diamondbacks, who drafted Drew 15th overall, have not made as much headway with the former Florida State shortstop.

Boras didn’t disagree with the “common sense” timetable of spring training that Diamondbacks scouting director Mike Rizzo detailed in a January interview (BA, Feb. 14-28). But he didn’t sound optimistic about Drew reporting to spring training in an Arizona uniform.

“Aside from a couple of brief conversations with their scouting director, we really haven’t ever heard anything from Arizona,” Boras said while in Tampa for arbitration hearings. “I don’t think he has been given the authority to make a proposal.”

In other words, nothing has changed since last summer, when a group of minority investors forced out former Diamondbacks president Jerry Colangelo and took control of the club. While they tried to install former agent and Boras rival Jeff Moorad as club president, Major League Baseball has not ratified the decision to put an agent in charge of a major league organization. The change has left the Drew negotiations hanging.

“Under the new regime, we haven’t received a formal proposal,” Boras said. “We had a situation with Stephen where we understood where they were as an organization and they understood where we were, but since the administration changed, that’s all changed.”

In other words, the tables have turned on a Boras client. It’s not so much the player holding out on the team as the team holding out on the player in this case.

For Comparison’s Sake

Obviously the issue is money. Boras doesn’t go into specifics about contract demands in the media, but industry chatter has held that Rickie Weeks’ contract as the No. 2 overall pick in 2003 would serve as the benchmark for a Drew deal.

The players couldn’t be more different despite their backgrounds as college middle infielders. Drew played in one of the nation’s toughest leagues, the Atlantic Coast Conference, for a high-profile program. Weeks nearly went unrecruited out of high school and played at Southern. However, Weeks proved his tools in two summers using wood bats for USA Baseball’s college national team, while Drew has never played in a wood-bat league due to injuries. Drew’s older brothers J.D. and Tim already have played in the big leagues. Weeks had no such advantage in learning the nuances of the game.

In terms of their tools, scouts give Weeks an edge—especially those who don’t believe Drew can be a big league shortstop.

Both have been labeled five-tool players. Both have excellent bat speed, though Weeks’ ability to whip the bat through the zone has been compared to Gary Sheffield’s. Drew’s game has been compared more to Todd Walker’s, and scouts who thought Drew was too apt to turn his game off questioned his drive during his amateur career.

Weeks’ tools and Team USA experience garnered him a $3.6 million bonus and a major league contract guaranteeing him at least $4.79 million. Boras clearly believes Drew merits at least that and more.

“There were some years where we only represent a few players in the draft because we feel the talent is not there,” Boras said. “Like last year, we felt like we represented the two best players available.”

Boras also believes Weaver was the best pitcher available, and he certainly put up the best numbers. The College Player of the Year went 15-1, 1.62 with an amazing 213-21 strikeout-walk ratio. The year wasn’t too different from the numbers Mark Prior put up at Southern California in 2001 (15-1, 1.69, 202-18 K-BB). The command both pitchers exhibited as amateurs was their defining characteristic, but Prior’s fastball and curveball both earn higher grades than Weaver’s.

“Prior’s the outlier,” said a scout who saw both pitchers as amateurs. “When Mark didn’t have his best stuff, he still threw 90-93 and the fastball was still firm, with a power breaking ball, almost a slider. Jered was more 86-88 with more of a sweepy slider that he really needs to locate, and if he didn’t have his best stuff, he needed his defense. Mark could dominate even without his best stuff.

“They’re two very different bodies with very different mechanics. Both are very competitive. It’s just hard to compare anyone to Mark as an amateur and have them come out ahead.”

Perhaps realizing this, Boras says Prior’s 2001 landmark $10.5 million guaranteed major league contract—with a $4 million signing bonus—isn’t the standard for Weaver, and that Weaver’s contract shouldn’t be a record-breaker. Boras and Angels scouting director Eddie Bane said negotiations were ongoing, and that general manager Bill Stoneman was handling the case.

Bane said the Angels got a pleasant surprise when Weaver pitched in Long Beach State’s alumni game—for the alumni—in early January.

“We are talking some (with Boras), but that’s about it,” Bane said. “There’s not a lot to report. There’s no drop-dead date; we can negotiate up until a week until the draft. We’re still optimistic.”

If neither player signs, they would go back into a 2005 draft class that is considered deeper than the ’04 class by most scouts. Boras would prefer that Weaver and Drew remain part of the class of ’04.

“Obviously these signings are different,” he said, “because these two players were the most skilled players in the draft, and should be in the major leagues in a short time.”

If they ever sign.
 

AZZenny

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I'd sort of like to see us consider pitching and genuine infielders, esp if we don't sign Stephen Drew - btw, Angels gave Boras a flat $4M take-it-or-leave-it offer for Jered Weaver this week, and the deadline passed.
I keep thinking that if the owners are smart, they'll collude a bit on agents demanding excessive $$ for draft picks, esp for Boras - let Drew and Weaver re-enter the draft (which is stronger and they likely wouldn't rate quite as high this year) and once again let them drop way down the selection process - along with his other top draftees - until kids get the idea that if you really want to play ball, the ridiculous demands aren't going to work.

Meanwhile, this guy keeps catching my eye:

Luke Hochevar W,3-1....... 7.0 4 0 0 0 13 - 28 IP, 13 H, 4 BB, 34 K
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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i'm not a huge baseball guy, but a glutton for sports, so i've been lurking on the draft thread and watching baseball tonight on espn. seems that people are going nuts over upton's potential. gammons said that only 3 times in the past 20 years has it been the case that every team in mlb would have taken the same player first b/c his potential was so undeniably the real thing. the three? griffey, a-rod, and upton. is this kid really considered that good? they're talking that the kid has bo jackson/deion sanders speed, tremendous hitting power and a rifle. how high is the upside of our organization with guys like him, drew, conor, and carlos in the minors? do we have the pitching to keep up with these guys? i mean, halsey and webb are young, can we surround them w/ others from our minor league system? my god, am i really going to have to become rabid about baseball in addition to football and hoops now . . . crap.

anyone with ANYTHING to say about upton would be appreciated.
 

Lefty

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What I heard that I liked was that he comes from a very good family. Gammons seemed to think the Diamondbacks won't have to worry about any off the field problems.
 

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Gammons isn't the only one who puts this kid in the same caliber as Griffey and A-Rod so it's not just Red Sock Pete's senility catching up to him. With 17 year old kids you just never know, but he was the fastest player ever timed at some event for prospects, throws 94 mph fastballs when he pitches, and has showed unlimited power potential to all fields. He's basically the baseball equivalent of LeBron James athletically and is supposedly just as humble and hard-working. Sounds like a can't-miss but like I said, the kid's only 17.

With Upton joining the fold with Conor Jackson, Carlos Quentin, and Stephen Drew; we're looking at a Texas Rangers caliber offense in 2010 (if not earlier) if these guys progress as planned.
 
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I would rank Upton slightly behind Griffey and A-Rod as prospects. In terms of talent, he is there with both players, but his defense is a concern and I don't know if he'll ever be the gold glove caliber players that Junior and Rodriguez are. Still, he's a player that will give you 30/30 type seasons and be a middle of the order type hitter. With that said, he could be a bust, even though I doubt he will, seeing as how I have followed the Upton brothers extensively the past three seasons. I remember back in 1999, Josh Hamilton, a player many compared to as a young Griffey, was considered as close to a can't miss prospect you could find. His makeup as a player was off the charts, and his talent was unquestioned as he hit .347 in his first year of rookie ball. Now, he's a drug addict who will probably never reach the major leagues. You can just never tell with the draft, it's completely unpredictable.
 

AZZenny

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LOL - I was telling someone it's possible the DBacks just got their Amare.

Scouts have been watching Justin Upton closely for 3-4 years. Mike Rizzo, our superlative scouting director, said some member of the DBacks organization - from scouts to ownership and in between - had probably see every game Upton played this year, and he is a great athlete, as well as understanding the game.

He has consistently been much better than 'top' players two or three years older than he is in national touneys. They have watched him with wood bats, too, and it makes no difference. He has excellent plate discipline, power, speed, arm - the defense problem isn't the glove as much as his arm may be too strong for SS, although he loves playing that position.

One scouting site said if he'd ONLY played Centerfield not SS and 3B, he would definitely be the greatest HS CF ever drafted. Low end projections are Derek Jeter, high end are Griffey, Bo Jackson, etc. IF he will move to CF happily, he could be up here in 2 years.

They love his family, and find him extremely stable, settled, intelligent, and mature for 17 - probably because he grew up watching his older brother go through similar hype.

One recent review found that the few truly stellar HS 1st pick position players in the past decade or so do tend to pan out extremely well; super 1st pick pitchers are iffier by far. But - it is a crap shoot, which is why paying a ton of money is unfortunate but currently unavoidable.

I think, btw, Josh Hamilton turned out to have had addiction problems in HS covered up by coaches and others. Unless I'm thinking of someone else.
 

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The only defense I saw on him was this amazing play where a runner tried to steal second. Catcher threw this really high throw to second. He ran over made this jumping catch about as high as his arm would go and a tag on the runner before hitting the ground. It was a great play. I think he will be a great defender as well as hitter. Sucks we got to wait a few years. But with him and Drew things look good in the DBacks future.
 
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Delmon Young

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Speaking of great plays, you guys should of seen the play his brother, B.J., made at Yankee stadium last season. Basically, Justin is a faster, more well built version of his brother, which is a good thing considering his brother was the top prospect in baseball last year and is insanely talented himself. As for Hamilton, he never had addiction problems before a car accident in 2001 that threw out his back and started causing him to use pain killers and heroin, which he later became addicted to. It's a sad case really.
 

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Upton, Drew a strong 1-2 punch
By Jim Callis
Baseball America

Eight days after landing one franchise shortstop, the Diamondbacks landed another.

With the No. 1 overall pick in the 2005 first-year player draft on Tuesday, Arizona selected Great Bridge High (Chesapeake, Va.) shortstop Justin Upton. With Upton and 2004 first-rounder Stephen Drew, who signed May 30 after a record holdout of nearly a year, the Diamondbacks now have snapped up the top-rated position players in each of the last two drafts.

"I'm ecstatic about it," said Arizona scouting director Mike Rizzo, who ranked Drew atop his draft board in 2004. "I'm grateful to have had the opportunity to do it. I'm glad we decided to take both of them, and I'm glad we had the ability to sign Stephen and to sign Justin in the future."

Upton and his older brother B.J., who went second overall in 2002 to the Devil Rays, became the highest-drafted siblings in draft history. B.J., whose Triple-A Durham club was playing at nearby Norfolk, was among several family members and friends who gathered in the library at Great Bridge High to follow the draft over the Internet.

Justin, who met with Arizona on Sunday and Kansas City (which held the second pick) on Monday, said he didn't know he was going to be a Diamondback until he heard his name on the Internet broadcast. The Royals had called shortly before the draft started at 1 p.m. Eastern to tell him they'd take him at No. 2 if given the opportunity.

Rizzo said Upton had been his favorite for months among a group of candidates that also included three college right-handers, Mike Pelfrey (Wichita State), Luke Hochevar (Tennessee) and Craig Hansen (St. John's). The Diamondbacks finalized their decision to take Upton on Monday night.

"It's been a long time coming and it's finally come true for me," Upton said. "My heart was pounding a little bit and when I got the news, it was just a real good moment for me."

Upton had been billed as a potential No. 1 overall pick since a standout performance as a 14-year-old at the Area Code Games. While many young players have struggled, Upton never faltered, maintaining his status by continually excelling at showcases and on U.S. national teams.

"I heard that talk," Upton said, "The way I dealt with it was by playing the way I had been playing, trying to keep the pressure off my back."

Few high school players in recent memory can compare to Upton. He's considered slightly better than B.J. was at the same stage of their careers, as the 6-foot-2, 187-pound Justin is stronger, faster and more advanced as a hitter. The only real knock on Justin, as with B.J., is that he's erratic making throws from shortstop.

While some scouts have said they would move Upton to center field and envisioned him becoming the next Ken Griffey Jr., Rizzo said the Diamondbacks believe he can play shortstop and have no plans to change his position. Once he signs, Upton will begin his professional career at Missoula in the Rookie-level Pioneer League.

Baseball sources indicate that in preliminary discussion, Arizona opened with a $4 million straight bonus, while the Uptons (advised by Larry Reynolds) countered with a contract similar to the $5.5 million big league contract the club gave Drew. While Rizzo said there were no guarantees, he hoped to get Upton out playing quickly.

Hmmm - pay him more, but don't tie up 40-man roster spots giving big league contracts to draft picks - esp a 17-year old. In another year we are going to have a TON of hard choices about the 40-man and who not to protect - which is, I guess, the sign of a strong and maturing farm system.

btw - we do have some potential arms to go with our future bats. Enrique Gonzalez looks extremely promising, and AJ "Promote Me" Shappi is looking like he may be the real thing. We'll see when he gets to a real batter's league, but he looks exceptional so far.

Oh man Oh Man!! AZ Fall League should be a blast this year!!
 

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thanks gang. seems like we really got a gem. stoked. now a different question: drew was considered a stud. upton seems to be considered a step above that. how much of a better prospect is upton considered than drew? or is this just a stupid question at this stage in their respective yet-to-be-started careers?
 

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I believe BA had Drew ranked the #5 position player in this draft (when they thought Drew might be back in this year's draft, signability not being factored in), and #8 overall. Last year he was #2 overall, and #1 for position players.

Upton is a clear, unanimous, no-one-else-really-that-close, #1 overall.

Also - there were a few scouting questions last year about Drew's inner drive, and he was described generally as not a clubhouse leader - quiet, religious, private; initial impressions are that Upton is very motivated, and a more gregarious, assertive guy.

Today's BA chat says Upton will likely sign within a few weeks for a roughly $5 Million, "two-sport minor league contract" rather than demand a big league contract. Anybody know what two sports? Does this mean two PRO sports??
 
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Lefty

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Gammons on Upton and the Diamondbacks

Here is a little tidbit from Gammons:

Justin Upton will get a contract done in time, and Arizona stocked its system with college pitchers with subsequent choices like UMass right-hander Matt Torra with the 31st pick. The most interesting pick for the Diamondbacks was Georgia Tech's Jason Neighborgall in the third round. Neighborgall has had problems throwing strikes [in the super regionals his first four pitches were 99, 98, 98, 99, followed by an unhittable slider ... then he threw seven straight balls].

Incidentally, if current Arizona GM Joe Garagiola beats out current Mets assistant GM Jim Duquette for the job of replacing Sandy Alderson as MLB's executive vice president of baseball operations, why wouldn't the Diamondbacks make Mike Rizzo, one of the best pure baseball men in the business and the workhorse on their winter deals, the GM?
 

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Zona90 said:
Here is a little tidbit from Gammons:

Justin Upton will get a contract done in time, and Arizona stocked its system with college pitchers with subsequent choices like UMass right-hander Matt Torra with the 31st pick. The most interesting pick for the Diamondbacks was Georgia Tech's Jason Neighborgall in the third round. Neighborgall has had problems throwing strikes [in the super regionals his first four pitches were 99, 98, 98, 99, followed by an unhittable slider ... then he threw seven straight balls].

Incidentally, if current Arizona GM Joe Garagiola beats out current Mets assistant GM Jim Duquette for the job of replacing Sandy Alderson as MLB's executive vice president of baseball operations, why wouldn't the Diamondbacks make Mike Rizzo, one of the best pure baseball men in the business and the workhorse on their winter deals, the GM?

Please let Joe get the job. PLEASE!
 

AZZenny

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Incidentally, if current Arizona GM Joe Garagiola beats out current Mets assistant GM Jim Duquette for the job of replacing Sandy Alderson as MLB's executive vice president of baseball operations, why wouldn't the Diamondbacks make Mike Rizzo, one of the best pure baseball men in the business and the workhorse on their winter deals, the GM?

YESSSSS!


Rizzo said recently that he was given a lot more autonomy and authority on Drew and a few things like that this year than in the past, and was delighted to have the opportunity and gain the experience.

I am glad to see that everyone out there agrees we will get a deal done with Upton pretty quickly. Rizzo said they may get started talking early this week.

Neighborgall sounds really intriguing.
 

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Upton Update

Justin Upton, the first pick in the June draft, has signed to attend junior college after the D-backs' refused to up their $4.6 million signing bonus, nearly $3 million less than they paid shortstop Stephen Drew, their first pick in 2004.

From this article. The last point on the buzz, by the right hand side of the larger article.

This doesn't sound too bad. We can still negociate with a juco player as a 'draft and follow' player (but this would be very rare from a such high draft pick. Perhaps he is just trying to gain leverage or prevent himself from becoming rusty.

Also, if we don't sign him (which I don't think will be the case) wouldn't we get the first pick in the next draft?
 
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AZZenny

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NOOO - This is a major screw-up, IMO. I'm not sure if we'd lose his rights if he went JUCO - probably not until next draft, but we would NOT get #1 pick if he doesn't sign - unless our level of play continues to decline, that is. We'd get a sandwich pick between first and second round, I'm pretty sure that's all.

Why are they nickle-and-diming this kid? He by every account has among the best potential seen in several years. If they paid Drew too much, well, THEY set the bar - how can you pay a consensus #1 overall pick that much less than a guy who would have ranked at least 4-5 slots below him this year? The expectation is he'd make the big leagues in 2-3 years, and Drew probably is looking at 2007 now also. Not that big a difference in the investment to bring them through the ranks.

This FO has completely bewildered me.
 

boondockdrunk

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AZZenny said:
NOOO - This is a major screw-up, IMO. I'm not sure if we'd lose his rights if he went JUCO - probably not until next draft, but we would NOT get #1 pick if he doesn't sign - unless our level of play continues to decline, that is. We'd get a sandwich pick between first and second round, I'm pretty sure that's all.

Why are they nickle-and-diming this kid? He by every account has among the best potential seen in several years. If they paid Drew too much, well, THEY set the bar - how can you pay a consensus #1 overall pick that much less than a guy who would have ranked at least 4-5 slots below him this year? The expectation is he'd make the big leagues in 2-3 years, and Drew probably is looking at 2007 now also. Not that big a difference in the investment to bring them through the ranks.

This FO has completely bewildered me.

I still don't think there is anything to worry about. This thread should help with some info and it will also make you not worry. I am sad that Brett Jacobson probably isn't going to sign.

The FO will sign this guy (most #1 over-all picks) hold out as long as they can. He will sign and become one of the best prospects in baseball.
 

AZZenny

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I'm not seeing anything there about Jacobsen and Vandy that wasn't said a couple months ago - they still have two weeks - but I agree with whoever that he's not likely to get a $1M bonus out of them.

Plus, his stock could rise if he goes to college - Rizzo said his velocity and control were erratic partly because he played varsity basketball right up to baseball season and came in 10 lbs underweight and very tired.

Those are good points about Upton and Juco - for him, that's equivalent of Drew not attending school last year, I guess. Still - annoys me if they really are playing coy money games with him.

Wish MLB would set bonuses for slots. Hey - doesn't the new Sr. VP for Baseball Ops handle draft-related issues!!?? :p
 
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