Jetstream Green said:
Funny when people start talking about trading down you start hearing the dreaded "I hope this" and "I hope that". Screw these ifs! (that's kinda funny). I don't want to hope, I want to be safe knowing we took a player at three and the chances of him making a difference are better than 2 second rounders making more of a difference.
here's the rub, staying put only makes sense if the player you want won't be there at 7. Let's say Fitzgerald is gone, "BPA" is going to be between Roy Williams, Mike Williams, Sean Taylor and probably Winslow because the assumption is Cleveland is taking Gallery at 3, and we will NOT take a QB in round one(so Ben and Rivers are off our board in round 1).
So you do the math, Giants probably take Ben although I read yesterday they really like Udeze, I think 4 is too high for him. Washington takes Winslow , Detroit or New England(trade) takes Taylor. That leaves us sitting at 7 with at best both Williams, at worst one of them(if one goes earlier). So we still get the guy we want at 7, pay less, and get more picks out of it.
If San Diego takes Manning and the Raiders take Fitz, the only logical picks at 3 are Taylor or Gallery, because it's the only guy in the draft where the dropoff from him to the next best at the position is huge. So if you don't want Taylor or Gallery, you HAVE to move down. THe only way to do better is the double swindle where we swap spots with the giants and still get picks
AND wind up high enough to get Taylor. IN that scenario you get the guy you wanted at 3, one slot lower, AND get a pick or more.
I fully expect if the Raiders take Fitzgerald, we're moving down.