Kingsbury's Air Raid

[Krangodnzr]

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-kliff-...-arizona-cardinals-reimagine-air-raid-offense

Luckily, there are parts of this offense that do work. The run and RPO game is rather unique, and with Kyler Murray being able to handle quarterback-designed run schemes, the Cardinals finished fourth and sixth in the league in EPA per run play in the past two regular seasons, respectively. They also run the ball very well with a tight end in the formation. They finished first and seventh, respectively, in the league in EPA per play on running plays in those formations.

This leads to the most important finding: Arizona is very good at throwing with a tight end in the formation, finishing fifth in the league in EPA per play on such plays with straight dropbacks. Murray’s average depth of target goes up almost a whole yard on such plays compared to the “open” formations. And his passing grade jumps from 66.2 to 81.0.

The Air Raid from 2009 is certainly dead, and it feels like that’s the offense Kliff Kingsbury brought with him to Arizona. If the Cardinals are going to make the big leap to a top-10 offense, they need to slow things down and beef up the unit a little more.

There’s a lot of good on this offense, and the additions of center Rodney Hudson in free agency and the aforementioned Rondale Moore in the draft will help. To a certain degree, Kliff needs to look toward his friend at Oklahoma, Lincoln Riley, for some inspiration. Riley is still Air Raid-friendly but has used a number of bigger players in his offense at tight end and fullback.

Some stuff we already know, but what throws a wrench is that the Cardinals maybe shouldve gotten a legit TE. Sounds like Kliff is planning on doubling down on what didn't work as well.

My only criticism of the analysis is that we don't really know how much personnel affected Kliffs offensive plan. I personally think Fitz was much more of a hindrance than a help most of the time.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-kliff-...-arizona-cardinals-reimagine-air-raid-offense



Some stuff we already know, but what throws a wrench is that the Cardinals maybe shouldve gotten a legit TE. Sounds like Kliff is planning on doubling down on what didn't work as well.

My only criticism of the analysis is that we don't really know how much personnel affected Kliffs offensive plan. I personally think Fitz was much more of a hindrance than a help most of the time.

I would be curious to see the stats on whether the better production with a TE was with TEs acting as a receiver or as added protection for Murray so he had more time to throw. If it's the latter than we simply need to utilize a TE that can block, but for obvious reasons it would be nice to have one that could do everything well.

 

[BritCard]

Well that sucks.

Lowest in motion. Highest in personel groupings other teams don't use. Lowest in moving receivers around. Highest use of none breaking routes. League high in bubble screens despite negative EPA.

Not great combos.

"It makes them very predictable and easily manipulated."

"All of this has led to more static than electricity from the offense. Combining the different core principles of the unit ultimately ends up in a very fixed look. What you see is what you get."

"This makes it easy for NFL defenses to key in on their concepts. NFL defenders will sit on routes when they know what concepts a team runs from different formations. Wide-eyed college defenders have a harder time keeping track of such things, but the NFL is a bigger beast."

" One of the core beliefs of the Air Raid is that by not moving receivers around, the offense can play with significant tempo while still finding ways to get the ball to the best receiver through mismatches against the defensive concept.

The issue is that tempo is old news these days. Defenses can line up and not miss a beat, communicating a call seamlessly between all 11 players. It’s not 2006 anymore."

It goes on to say we suck in 10 personel. Much better in 11 and 12. But that overall our passing offense is poor and the team has been carried by the run game.

 

[CardNots]

Well that sucks.

Lowest in motion. Highest in personel groupings other teams don't use. Lowest in moving receivers around. Highest use of none breaking routes. League high in bubble screens despite negative EPA.

Not great combos.

"It makes them very predictable and easily manipulated."

"All of this has led to more static than electricity from the offense. Combining the different core principles of the unit ultimately ends up in a very fixed look. What you see is what you get."

"This makes it easy for NFL defenses to key in on their concepts. NFL defenders will sit on routes when they know what concepts a team runs from different formations. Wide-eyed college defenders have a harder time keeping track of such things, but the NFL is a bigger beast."

" One of the core beliefs of the Air Raid is that by not moving receivers around, the offense can play with significant tempo while still finding ways to get the ball to the best receiver through mismatches against the defensive concept.

The issue is that tempo is old news these days. Defenses can line up and not miss a beat, communicating a call seamlessly between all 11 players. It’s not 2006 anymore."

It goes on to say we suck in 10 personel. Much better in 11 and 12. But that overall our passing offense is poor and the team has been carried by the run game.

double suck

 

[Redsz]

Agree alot with this article. SF and LA had us figured out and totally smothered us in the last 2 games.

 

[BullheadCardFan]

Agree alot with this article. SF and LA had us figured out and totally smothered us in the last 2 games.

DC's have KK figured out

He's been exposed

He really needs to fix the offensive plan or it's going to be a long and disappointing season

 

[slanidrac16]

I think a receiver should go in motion on just about every play.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Good to see keim is on top of trends . . . from 10 years ago. Maybe that’s why we went out and signed the 2015 pro bowl squad.

 

[football karma]

Agree alot with this article. SF and LA had us figured out and totally smothered us in the last 2 games.

maybe

but SF, LA and SEA all looked at the offense all of 2019 and the offseason.

I dont know if after the first 8 games of 2020 was where their lightbulbs went off

not to say the offense doesnt need to evolve, but i think there is a large degree of talent + player execution in play as well

 

[Proximo]

Well that sucks.

Lowest in motion. Highest in personel groupings other teams don't use. Lowest in moving receivers around. Highest use of none breaking routes. League high in bubble screens despite negative EPA.

Not great combos.

"It makes them very predictable and easily manipulated."

"All of this has led to more static than electricity from the offense. Combining the different core principles of the unit ultimately ends up in a very fixed look. What you see is what you get."

"This makes it easy for NFL defenses to key in on their concepts. NFL defenders will sit on routes when they know what concepts a team runs from different formations. Wide-eyed college defenders have a harder time keeping track of such things, but the NFL is a bigger beast."

" One of the core beliefs of the Air Raid is that by not moving receivers around, the offense can play with significant tempo while still finding ways to get the ball to the best receiver through mismatches against the defensive concept.

The issue is that tempo is old news these days. Defenses can line up and not miss a beat, communicating a call seamlessly between all 11 players. It’s not 2006 anymore."

It goes on to say we suck in 10 personel. Much better in 11 and 12. But that overall our passing offense is poor and the team has been carried by the run game.

none of this is surprising. Kliff has proven he is not an offensive genius. He never adjusted last season when it was clear teams figured us out.

that’s why I have very low expectations for this coming season. I feel like if we do make the playoffs it will be due to surprising defensive play.

 

[Jetstream Green]

For the record, I have never thought Kliff to be an offensive genius or Kyler to be some generational talent. I do think Kliff is a very good offensive play caller and Kyler is a dynamic franchise QB. Kyler is young lacking football experience on a high level, so a coach is going to have to give that some attention, and I think Kliff is doing an outstanding job with that and I think he always has with QBs. Kliff's problem is the same problem he had at Texas Tech and that is game management. It is not that he can't do a decent job at the task when his attention is there but he is so caught up in the offensive that his passion for the offense makes managing the whole game a afterthought for him

 

[Solar7]

This thread is really intriguing, because I hear so much positivity from so many people about this team, and then an article like this is posted and everyone nods their head like "yeah, we all know it's bad."

That's not deep insight on my part, I'm assuming it's just positive folk who are hoping for the best, but... hm.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

This thread is really intriguing, because I hear so much positivity from so many people about this team, and then an article like this is posted and everyone nods their head like "yeah, we all know it's bad."

That's not deep insight on my part, I'm assuming it's just positive folk who are hoping for the best, but... hm.

It's not complicated. It is possible to have an overall positive outlook on the team and still not like every position on the team.

 

[Solar7]

It's not complicated. It is possible to have an overall positive outlook on the team and still not like every position on the team.

Dogging the entire offensive system that we started a rebuild around three years ago is a pretty damning thing.

 

[BritCard]

DC's have KK figured out

He's been exposed

He really needs to fix the offensive plan or it's going to be a long and disappointing season

The thing is, it's not hard to figure out. All the things PFF are saying fans on here have been saying for a while. And if fans can see it DC's must be laughing their asses off.

It's a very basic, unimaginative system with very little misdirection. It's basically "You 4 guys run isolated routes from the same positions every play and hope you beat your man".

It's not based on outsmarting the defense. It relies on the defense messing up.

 

[daves]

The thing is, it's not hard to figure out. All the things PFF are saying fans on here have been saying for a while. And if fans can see it DC's must be laughing their asses off.

It's a very basic, unimaginative system with very little misdirection. It's basically "You 4 guys run isolated routes from the same positions every play and hope you beat your man".

It's not based on outsmarting the defense. It relies on the defense messing up.

It's incredible that an idiot coach who can't design plays or adapt to defenses, with a lousy O-line, 2nd year QB who spends all his time gaming, one good WR, mediocre RBs, journeyman TEs, and a horrible kicker managed to produce the #13-ranked offense (#6 by yards). Might as well give up hope based on what i read here.

...dbs

 

[BritCard]

This thread is really intriguing, because I hear so much positivity from so many people about this team, and then an article like this is posted and everyone nods their head like "yeah, we all know it's bad."

That's not deep insight on my part, I'm assuming it's just positive folk who are hoping for the best, but... hm.

Not really. I, and several others, have mentioned several times that Kliff's scheme is a major issue holding this offense back.

 

[BullheadCardFan]

The thing is, it's not hard to figure out. All the things PFF are saying fans on here have been saying for a while. And if fans can see it DC's must be laughing their asses off.

It's a very basic, unimaginative system with very little misdirection. It's basically "You 4 guys run isolated routes from the same positions every play and hope you beat your man".

It's not based on outsmarting the defense. It relies on the defense messing up.

Difference between college defenses and pros is miles apart

 

[BritCard]

It's incredible that an idiot coach who can't design plays or adapt to defenses, with a lousy O-line, 2nd year QB who spends all his time gaming, one good WR, mediocre RBs, journeyman TEs, and a horrible kicker managed to produce the #13-ranked offense (#6 by yards). Might as well give up hope based on what i read here.

...dbs

There's a bunch of stuff there not mentioned here, nor that I believe.

I like our O line, I like our WR's (I liked them enough last year too). In fact I have argued several times that the clamor for new and better WR's was pointless BECAUSE the scheme was the issue, not who is catching the ball.

Plus we are talking about the passing offense here, not the offense as a whole. Maybe it ranked highly overall but as a passing offense it was mediocre.

17th in passing YPG (Teddy Bridgewater had more YPG than Kyler)
16th in passing TD's
15th in passer rating
19th in YPA
19th in DVOA (Total offense, not passing, -2.4%)
16th in EPA

As the PFF article says, it was actually the defense that improved the most last year for those extra wins.

 

[daves]

There's a bunch of stuff there not mentioned here, nor that I believe.

Yeah, i should've qualified my post to note that i wasn't just responding to you, but to the general tenor of the board lately.

You don't have to look far around here to learn that the Cards have the worst GM, a terrible HC with a scheme that will never work in the NFL and an inability to adapt. They had a useless draft and lousy free agency moves, leaving them with an old, overpriced, untalented roster and no hope to compete now or in the future. And let's not forget the incompetent DC and inability to develop players.

Is there some truth to everything above? Sure! Yet the team has improved the last two years and, though it was in disappointing fashion, went 8-8. The stats you posted show that they were average in 2020, and we all want them to be better than that. But the ownership, management, coaching, scheme, and talent can't ALL be terrible relative to the rest of the league.

...dave

 

[cardncubfan]

To add to Daves post. I'm sure K9 or someone will blow this up but this has them at number 6 last year. You don't have the number 6 offense with a lousy HC.

https://www.lineups.com/nfl-team-rankings

This also shows that we were terrible on 3rd downs & TO's.


I found one on ESPN that has us at #6 offense.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team


Another. Only PFF has us at 13.

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamstat.html


https://www.nfl.com/stats/team-stats/offense/passing/2020/reg/all

 

[Stout]

To add to Daves post. I'm sure K9 or someone will blow this up but this has them at number 6 last year. You don't have the number 6 offense with a lousy HC.

https://www.lineups.com/nfl-team-rankings

This also shows that we were terrible on 3rd downs & TO's.


I found one on ESPN that has us at #6 offense.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team


Another. Only PFF has us at 13.

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamstat.html


https://www.nfl.com/stats/team-stats/offense/passing/2020/reg/all

Lol sure you do. That #6 is, by itself, absolutely meaningless. How many games can we point to and say KK lost us because of bad coaching? How many mental errors cost us games? Yeah, we don't have a good HC.

 

[Cheesebeef]

To add to Daves post. I'm sure K9 or someone will blow this up but this has them at number 6 last year. You don't have the number 6 offense with a lousy HC.

https://www.lineups.com/nfl-team-rankings

This also shows that we were terrible on 3rd downs & TO's.


I found one on ESPN that has us at #6 offense.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team


Another. Only PFF has us at 13.

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamstat.html

remind me... are wins and losses decided by offensive yards at the end? Or points?

To add to Daves post. I'm sure K9 or someone will blow this up but this has them at number 6 last year. You don't have the number 6 offense with a lousy HC.

https://www.lineups.com/nfl-team-rankings

This also shows that we were terrible on 3rd downs & TO's.


I found one on ESPN that has us at #6 offense.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team


Another. Only PFF has us at 13.

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamstat.html

In 2005 our offense was ranked #8 in the league in yards. Our defense was ranked 8th in the league in yards. Our record was 5-11. Our Head Coach was a lousy Dennis Green. Bottom line, the yardage stats can be deceiving and are in no way proof your coach is good.

Lol sure you do. That #6 is, by itself, absolutely meaningless. How many games can we point to and say KK lost us because of bad coaching? How many mental errors cost us games? Yeah, we don't have a good HC.

it’s even more meaningless when the offense isn’t scoring points commensurate with gaining those yards.

last time I looked, that’s how games are decided. Not by gaining more yards, but by having more points than the other team. We rank 14th in ppg last year. We ranked 16th the year before that.

mediocre numbers for offense. Just barely above league average.

 

[cardncubfan]

remind me... are wins and losses decided by offensive yards at the end? Or points?



In 2005 our offense was ranked #8 in the league in yards. Our defense was ranked 8th in the league in yards. Our record was 5-11. Our Head Coach was a lousy Dennis Green. Bottom line, the yardage stats can be deceiving and are in no way proof your coach is good.



it’s even more meaningless when the offense isn’t scoring points commensurate with gaining those yards.

last time I looked, that’s how games are decided. Not by gaining more yards, but by having more points than the other team. We rank 14th in ppg last year. We ranked 16th the year before that.

mediocre numbers for offense. Just barely above league average.

Remind me again if defense & special teams aka kicker also plays apart in wins & losses.

 

[BritCard]

Yeah, i should've qualified my post to note that i wasn't just responding to you, but to the general tenor of the board lately.

You don't have to look far around here to learn that the Cards have the worst GM, a terrible HC with a scheme that will never work in the NFL and an inability to adapt. They had a useless draft and lousy free agency moves, leaving them with an old, overpriced, untalented roster and no hope to compete now or in the future. And let's not forget the incompetent DC and inability to develop players.

Is there some truth to everything above? Sure! Yet the team has improved the last two years and, though it was in disappointing fashion, went 8-8. The stats you posted show that they were average in 2020, and we all want them to be better than that. But the ownership, management, coaching, scheme, and talent can't ALL be terrible relative to the rest of the league.

...dave

lol, the thing is, not everybody believes all those negatives at the same time (Well, probably @Solar7 does)

You get guys that think Keim sucks and the draft sucks but Kliff, FA and the roster are ok.

You get guys that think the roster sucks, FA sucks but the draft was good. So on and so forth, you get the idea.

So if you take the whole board you can probably find 25% of the whole think every area sucks. Just not the same 25% for each.

Personally, I like the draft, but I like most drafts until the rubber hits the road. I like the roster bar CB and TE. I'm ambivalent on Keim because I think we only get Keim lite of some internal nodding dog if he goes so why stress it?

My biggest concern for this year is Kliff and Kyler, mostly Kliff because what Kyler does is really a subset of Kliff's ability. This article isn't wrong. There are some big issues with this passing scheme that need to be resolved for us to be challengers.

What I don't know, and I'm interested to find out, is if Kliff has purposefully been restricting the offense and playing this system to help Kyler adjust or whether this is just his offense exactly how he intends it to be.