kerouac9
Klowned by Keim
Q: I remember commentators saying last year that there was a significant drop-off after the fifth-best prospect, current Dallas Cowboys CB Terence Newman. Where do you see that drop-off being in this year's draft class?
Randy, Washington, D.C.
KIPER: The drop-off this year occurs after six players. QB Eli Manning, WR Larry Fitzgerald, QB Ben Roethlisberger, OT Robert Gallery, TE Kellen Winslow Jr. and S Sean Taylor look like the first six picks right now, but beyond that we'll see a lot of variance in how teams rank the rest of their boards.
On my Big Board of the top 25 NFL prospects Fitzgerald, Taylor, Manning, WR Roy Williams, Roethlisberger, Gallery and Winslow are the top seven and all earn very similar grades. There is a drop-off at No. 8, but everyone from No. 8-14 are bunched closely together in terms of draft grade. The next group of comparable grades includes No. 15-21, with No. 22-32 looking very much alike to finish out the first round.
The slotting of this year's talent will affect how teams deal with their first-rounders, because at team trading down out of the top seven will need a significant return on that pick will be giving up a lot if it moves out if the top 15 or so. That's what happened last year when the Saints traded the 17th and 18th overall picks to Arizona for the No. 6 pick. New Orleans got a quality DT in Jonathan Sullivan while the Cardinals had to reach for WR Bryant Johnson and DE Calvin Pace. Arizona made that deal for salary reasons -- it did not want to pay big money to the No. 6 pick -- but you can bet most teams learned something from the Cardinals and won't operate like that.
I know opinions on Kiper differ, but I think that he's right here. Quibble with his opinion of Sullivan if you like, the Cards gave up two tiers (Sullivan-level, then Gross/Leftwich/Suggs/Trufant) to get two third-tier players. I dunno.
Just thought the note was interesting.