Kiper: NFL Learns From Cards' Mistake

kerouac9

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Q: I remember commentators saying last year that there was a significant drop-off after the fifth-best prospect, current Dallas Cowboys CB Terence Newman. Where do you see that drop-off being in this year's draft class?
Randy, Washington, D.C.

KIPER: The drop-off this year occurs after six players. QB Eli Manning, WR Larry Fitzgerald, QB Ben Roethlisberger, OT Robert Gallery, TE Kellen Winslow Jr. and S Sean Taylor look like the first six picks right now, but beyond that we'll see a lot of variance in how teams rank the rest of their boards.
On my Big Board of the top 25 NFL prospects Fitzgerald, Taylor, Manning, WR Roy Williams, Roethlisberger, Gallery and Winslow are the top seven and all earn very similar grades. There is a drop-off at No. 8, but everyone from No. 8-14 are bunched closely together in terms of draft grade. The next group of comparable grades includes No. 15-21, with No. 22-32 looking very much alike to finish out the first round.

The slotting of this year's talent will affect how teams deal with their first-rounders, because at team trading down out of the top seven will need a significant return on that pick will be giving up a lot if it moves out if the top 15 or so. That's what happened last year when the Saints traded the 17th and 18th overall picks to Arizona for the No. 6 pick. New Orleans got a quality DT in Jonathan Sullivan while the Cardinals had to reach for WR Bryant Johnson and DE Calvin Pace. Arizona made that deal for salary reasons -- it did not want to pay big money to the No. 6 pick -- but you can bet most teams learned something from the Cardinals and won't operate like that.

I know opinions on Kiper differ, but I think that he's right here. Quibble with his opinion of Sullivan if you like, the Cards gave up two tiers (Sullivan-level, then Gross/Leftwich/Suggs/Trufant) to get two third-tier players. I dunno.

Just thought the note was interesting.
 

SECTION 11

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"Arizona made that deal for salary reasons -- it did not want to pay big money to the No. 6 pick"


This is such ********.

Sullivan's bonus package is worth 11.4M.
Bryant Johnson's is worth 5.4M
Calvin Pace's is worth 5.1M

Anyone who thinks that they traded 6 for 17 & 18 for MONEY is high.
 
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kerouac9

kerouac9

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Originally posted by SECTION 11
"Arizona made that deal for salary reasons -- it did not want to pay big money to the No. 6 pick"


This is such ********.

Sullivan's bonus package is worth 11.4M.
Bryant Johnson's is worth 5.4M
Calvin Pace's is worth 5.1M

Anyone who thinks that they traded 6 for 17 & 18 for MONEY is high.

Hey, they saved... .9M for that. How do you think they afforded to fix the field for that one high school team? :D
 

Pariah

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Originally posted by SECTION 11
"Arizona made that deal for salary reasons -- it did not want to pay big money to the No. 6 pick"


This is such ********.

Sullivan's bonus package is worth 11.4M.
Bryant Johnson's is worth 5.4M
Calvin Pace's is worth 5.1M

Anyone who thinks that they traded 6 for 17 & 18 for MONEY is high.

I don't know what to think about that, but to play devil's advocate, a case could be made that they didn't want all of that money tied up in one player. Plus, we gave up the third round selection, so subtract whatever that bonus and salary would be from the equation, too.
 

Ryanwb

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I can see an argument about money. The Cardinals have always been able to pay their contract installments with no problem. The issue the team has is with the upfront signing bonuses.
 

SECTION 11

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Originally posted by kerouac9
Hey, they saved... .9M for that. How do you think they afforded to fix the field for that one high school team? :D

The field was $2M. So I'm sure the fourth rounder they gave up was to cover the goal posts.
 

Savage58

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Originally posted by kerouac9
I know opinions on Kiper differ, but I think that he's right here. Quibble with his opinion of Sullivan if you like, the Cards gave up two tiers (Sullivan-level, then Gross/Leftwich/Suggs/Trufant) to get two third-tier players. I dunno.

Just thought the note was interesting.

I'd have to agree on the third tier idea sorta. The 2nd tier being 6-12 last year IMO. It was severely painful watching Philly move ahead of us to take the last viable DE pick in our range, then to reach on Pace. I'll still give Pace the benefit of the doubt, and McDougle did get hurt last year, time will tell.

That trade was horrible as of now, and It will look horrible forever. As we could've/should've taken Leftwich, or Suggs even. Graves sure is hoping Johnson and Pace come out fast of the gates this season, as do all of us, but he has a bit more incentive.(his job)

"But HEY we got 2 first rounders, one of them has to be a hit RIGHT?" - The simple drivvle coming from the Arizona front office.
 

Northern Card

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Originally posted by Pariah
I don't know what to think about that, but to play devil's advocate, a case could be made that they didn't want all of that money tied up in one player. Plus, we gave up the third round selection, so subtract whatever that bonus and salary would be from the equation, too.

we gave up a fourth round selection, I believe... flipped our seconds... to get 4 picks in the first 100.. 2 firsts, a second and a third.
 

SeattleCard

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Originally posted by SECTION 11
"Arizona made that deal for salary reasons -- it did not want to pay big money to the No. 6 pick"


This is such ********.

Sullivan's bonus package is worth 11.4M.
Bryant Johnson's is worth 5.4M
Calvin Pace's is worth 5.1M

Anyone who thinks that they traded 6 for 17 & 18 for MONEY is high.

Come on man. Keep the language clean. I don't want this turning into a typical public NFL message board.
 

Jetstream Green

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Hey Kiper...

Where did you have Anquan Boldin ranked?

As I see it, we got two first round talents in Boldin and Johnson and a second rd talent in Pace.

Screw you Kiper
 

artp

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Last year, Graves said that he wanted to build the "belly of the team". Trading down for two first round draft picks (Johnson and Pace) was a good way to do that. The real stupid thing about that trade was giving up the 3rd rd pick. Quan saved Graves ass. Can you imagine what we'd be saying if the Cardinals hadn't drafted Quan?
This year we need stars.
 

vikesfan

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Kiper is freaking clueless. This is yet another example. He is wrong again on what the Cards did.


He is the luckiest man in America to be on TV he knows nothing about football; if he had had normal hair he'd be selling hotdogs on the street corner.

This guy is such a hype. I laugh out loud whenever he makes his pronouncements. What a joke. My 12 year old nephew is more insightful about the NFL and the Draft and I don't even have a 12 year old nephew.
 

lrk27

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Originally posted by vikesfan
Kiper is freaking clueless. This is yet another example. He is wrong again on what the Cards did.


He is the luckiest man in America to be on TV he knows nothing about football; if he had had normal hair he'd be selling hotdogs on the street corner.

This guy is such a hype. I laugh out loud whenever he makes his pronouncements. What a joke. My 12 year old nephew is more insightful about the NFL and the Draft and I don't even have a 12 year old nephew.

I'm not a big fan of Kiper, but if you look back, he is usually right on with his final mocks and pretty close with his player analysis.

That being said, I can't stand to look at him and listen to him talk. Does anyone else think he looks like the evil cousin of Chandler from Friends?
 

BACH

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Originally posted by lrk27
I'm not a big fan of Kiper, but if you look back, he is usually right on with his final mocks and pretty close with his player analysis.

That being said, I can't stand to look at him and listen to him talk. Does anyone else think he looks like the evil cousin of Chandler from Friends?

Kiper is OK, but Todd McShay from the War Room is the man. He has been much better than Kiper predicting mocks. He explains things the way he see them, but always remain very neutral when speaking of the teams.

A lot of experts (including Kiper) trash the Cardinals, Lions etc. when they doesn't have anything to say because it's the easiest way to score point by the fans IMO.
 

Northern Card

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Originally posted by artp
Last year, Graves said that he wanted to build the "belly of the team". Trading down for two first round draft picks (Johnson and Pace) was a good way to do that. The real stupid thing about that trade was giving up the 3rd rd pick. Quan saved Graves ass. Can you imagine what we'd be saying if the Cardinals hadn't drafted Quan?
This year we need stars.

It may have been "stupid" to give up a third round pick... but, If I recollect correctly, it was a fourth. In the end; the CARDS had 4 picks in the first 100. - 2 firsts - a flip of seconds... and a third round pick. Arguably: Giving up the fourth and flipping the seconds was the price they paid to get 4 in the first 100.
 

JeffGollin

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I agree with the gist of what Kiper says - until he gets to the bonus motive.

None of the draft gurus are perfect. Each has his pluses and minuses.

I like the way the War Room organizes information, but sometimes they'll whiff entirely and miss a really good player.

I find that Kiper will often see the same thing in a player that I do when I watch tape. But he also will whiff on key players and, because he tries to scoop everyone else by putting up mocks and rankings too early, often must backtrack on previous assessments.

Pete Prisco provides the most technical player-by-player analysis -right down to hip-flexibility and how a kid breaks down to tackle in the open field. But I don't think his over all judgement in ranking one player over another is all that good.

Ourlads (Sabo and Hessler) doesn't do mocks based on "who the team is likely to take" but instead does them based on "who they think the team should take."

I miss Joel Buchsbaum - he did a terrific job of getting scouts to comment on each player - both pro and con. He also coined the phrases: "Looks like Tarzan/plays like Jane", "All Pro from the neck down" and "Will make your draft or break your heart."

And in the end, I think the most underrated source of draft info is -

Ourselves!

Many of us quietly keep lists of prospects who don't grade out all that well, but whom "we just like." (Brusci, Vrabel, Dilger, Hutchison (G), Ty Carter, Rocky Calmus and Urlacher were on recent past lists. This year, my preliminary list includes Madieu Williams, Teddy Lehman, Bo Schobel, Greg Jones, Locklear and Cotchery).

My list is based on whether or not these guys are "football players" in the old school sense of the term. (They love the game, play that way and consistently make plays). And looking back over previous drafts, I find my short list is where I find the best value.
 

vikesfan

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IIRC Kiper's drafts in comparison of other mocks did not do all that well. He has all the resources of espn so his mocks might seem to do well for that reason. Plus he changes his mind all the time to keep up with the info espn in gathering.

Anyway I don't really care about being right on mocks I care about player analysis and his analysis is a joke.

(2) Klecko was another guy who NE picked up in that mode.
 

DevonCardsFan

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Originally posted by SeattleCardsFan
Come on man. Keep the language clean. I don't want this turning into a typical public NFL message board.

Hide from the badwords, put your head under the pillow and say LALALALALALALALALALALA,over and over, then your virgin ears and eyes can't see these so called "Bad Words". That is such a little girl statement. Lock yourself in your house keep the TV off and protect your self from all this crazy indesincy. Section 11 used a common word ********, which explains his opinion very clearly, quit being a baby!!!

It's not like he said he wants to ^*%^^ &%$. Lighten up
 
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Northern Card

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Originally posted by DevonCardsFan
Hide from the badwords, put your head under the pillow and say LALALALALALALALALALALA,over and over, then your virgin ears and eyes can't see these so called "Bad Words". That is such a little girl statement. Lock yourself in your house keep the TV off and protect your self from all this crazy indesincy. Section 11 used a common word ********, which explains his opinion very clearly, quit being a baby!!!

It's not like he said he wants to F your mom in the &%$. Lighten up

I was was with you (although I don't know how virgin ears...see or what "indescincy" means) up until that last sentence. In poor taste, to say the least. :stupid:
 

Stout

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Originally posted by Northern Card
It may have been "stupid" to give up a third round pick... but, If I recollect correctly, it was a fourth. In the end; the CARDS had 4 picks in the first 100. - 2 firsts - a flip of seconds... and a third round pick. Arguably: Giving up the fourth and flipping the seconds was the price they paid to get 4 in the first 100.

And it was by far too heavy a price to pay.
 

DevonCardsFan

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Originally posted by Northern Card
I was was with you (although I don't know how virgin ears...see or what "indescincy" means) up until that last sentence. In poor taste, to say the least. :stupid:

I guess your right, I'll delete the last sentence
 
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Chris_Sanders

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Kiper gave Boldin a first round grade last year in his draft magazine.
 
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