Kyler Murray vs Russell Wilson

[Krangodnzr]

How about he beats literally anyone with a winning record before we start saying he's going to just fall short of throwing for 500 yards in an NFC Championship game?

Our winningest QB in franchise history got spanked in the NFC Championship, maybe we just temper expectations just a little bit, bro...

Edit: Also, I suppose we'll just ignore that Goff dropped 32 TDs and only 12 INTs on the way to a 13-3 season last year. Awful! Terrible! Bet they wish they had Ryan Fitzpatrick back!

The NFL isnt what you did a year and a half ago.

He has a 79 QB Rating since this time last year. You say you are into analytics, and yet you are clearly ignoring 16 games worth of data that completely disproves your point.

 

[Solar7]

The NFL isnt what you did a year and a half ago.

He has a 79 QB Rating since this time last year. You say you are into analytics, and yet you are clearly ignoring 16 games worth of data that completely disproves your point.

I'm not going to play the "what have you done for me lately" game on a dude in his fourth year, sorry. There are legit Hall of Fame QBs that had down years, down streaks, whatever. Brett Favre comes to mind as someone who would be great or struggle throughout his career.

Just gonna keep repeating myself, but you need to stop using the word "awful" to describe him. If he's awful, what is Baker Mayfield this year? What is Dwayne Haskins, Mitchell Trubisky, etc?

Goff is middle of the pack, not awful.

 

[PACardsFan]

This is a thread comparing him to an inevitable Hall of Famer. Wilson could retire tomorrow and would be a first ballot guy.

(For what it's worth, I'm not sure if you're genuinely asking me, or trying to claim no one has compared him to HOF-tier players.)

There were people in the offseason saying that KM is more athletic, more accurate, and more mindful on the field in avoiding hits than RW.

A couple of posts referencing "Hall of Famer" though, using my Google-fu...







Just bolding some comments after a short search that maybe don't explicitly say "Hall of Fame," but you may as well say it if you're saying the NFL has never seen his skillset before.

The stat comparison also makes no sense because Kyler has to do a lot more throwing than Russ did on account of being behind and the nature of his offense.

Let's look at attempts.

RW: 253
KM: 360

100 more attempts to get to those numbers.

Rushing Attempts:

RW: 52
KM: 59

Sacks:

RW: 19
KM: 31

The point being, Kyler Murray has the ball in his hands a TON compared to RW, and when you start breaking out the averages, the numbers are not as impressive.

That's because the Seahawks didn't quite trust the ball in RW's hands as much. Seattle also had a significantly better team than what Murray came into. It's foolish to look at their 1st year & argue that K1 isn't having a much better season than Wilson had. No one is saying that Wilson isn't great TODAY, but Kyler is doing far more with far less. You can keep on sounding foolish if you like, but I'll stand by every syllable of my support of Murray, both before the draft, and now, 10 games into the season. You can delay your crow meal all you want, but you will eventually sit at the table and choke it down.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I'm not going to play the "what have you done for me lately" game on a dude in his fourth year, sorry. There are legit Hall of Fame QBs that had down years, down streaks, whatever. Brett Favre comes to mind as someone who would be great or struggle throughout his career.

Just gonna keep repeating myself, but you need to stop using the word "awful" to describe him. If he's awful, what is Baker Mayfield this year? What is Dwayne Haskins, Mitchell Trubisky, etc?

Goff is middle of the pack, not awful.

Just like David Johnson is having a bad streak.

16 games isnt a bad streak.

 

[Crimson Warrior]

This is a thread comparing him to an inevitable Hall of Famer. Wilson could retire tomorrow and would be a first ballot guy.

(For what it's worth, I'm not sure if you're genuinely asking me, or trying to claim no one has compared him to HOF-tier players.)

There were people in the offseason saying that KM is more athletic, more accurate, and more mindful on the field in avoiding hits than RW.

A couple of posts referencing "Hall of Famer" though, using my Google-fu...







Just bolding some comments after a short search that maybe don't explicitly say "Hall of Fame," but you may as well say it if you're saying the NFL has never seen his skillset before.

Sigh..

Solar7, check it out man. It's fun to have a guy on your team that you can get excited about. Dream about leading your team to a championship. That's all we're doing.

 

[Solar7]

That's because the Seahawks didn't quite trust the ball in RW's hands as much. Seattle also had a significantly better team than what Murray came into. It's foolish to look at their 1st year & argue that K1 isn't having a much better season than Wilson had. No one is saying that Wilson isn't great TODAY, but Kyler is doing far more with far less. You can keep on sounding foolish if you like, but I'll stand by every syllable of my support of Murray, both before the draft, and now, 10 games into the season. You can delay your crow meal all you want, but you will eventually sit at the table and choke it down.

They didn't have to trust the ball in RW's hands because they had a great team. Do you think if David Johnson and the defense were playing like it was 2015, we'd have Kyler throw for 360 attempts in 10 games?

I'm not sure if you're intentionally missing the point here. Kyler isn't getting this kind of volume because he's just so good that we don't ever want the ball out of his hands, it's because in most games we're struggling to keep up or stop anyone. It doesn't matter if this was Kyler, Hundley, Rosen, or Brian Hoyer, we'd be throwing this much because we have to.

 

[Russ Smith]

The point was to show how often KM has the ball in his hands compared to RW in his rookie year.

Russell Wilson got a TD every 16 attempts. Kyler every 30. That is a tremendous difference in efficiency. That's a major reason we're not a winning team.

All of the stats can be manipulated to tell your own story, but of course, "Kyler is a Hall of Famer or the equivalent" is still the only supported narrative.


I missed post #4 being a comparison of the first 10 games and didn't have the time at the moment to do all of the math myself. But the story is out there.

Obviously we'd like a higher TD rate yes but there's more to it. And I'm a huge Wilson fan but one of the reasons we're in most of our games now is Kyler isn't turning the ball over, he's got a much lower INT and fumble rate than Wilson did as a rookie. So yeah if he was throwing a TD twice as regularly we'd have a better offense, but if he was turning the ball over at the rate Wilson did as a rookie we'd probably have a worse record, we simply don't have a defense that can withstand turnovers. Wilson as a rookie had a 2.5% INT rate, Kyler is currently 1.4, nearly half, that protecting the ball is why we're not getting blown out. Look at the Ravens game really good team, beat NE, we were in that game entirely because we didnt' turn it over. Next week Kyler got behind and turned it over twice and Carolina blew us out.

It's come down but Kyler is still throwing the ball more often than almost any rookie in NFL history has, Wilson had a great rookie year but he was in a totally different situation.

I don't think Kyler is a HOF at this point in his career that's silly, but I do think if we had the defense Seattle had, and Marshawn Lynch to grind out the clock, we'd have much more than 3 wins right now.

 

[Russ Smith]

And I'll say... other QBs are not given the excuse of the team around them on this board. Maybe that's not coming from you, but guys like Cousins and Stafford are just lambasted on this board when they have the same reasons Kyler does for not winning these games.

I agree KM deserves some leeway for not winning, because the defense is atrocious, but the comparisons to Hall of Fame QBs are just ridiculous, given that Russ had to do it when the team was still in the game or held a lead, as compared to just being able to let it rip when we're down and playing from behind. It's a volume play right now.

Cousins has one of the best defenses in the NFL, one of the best RB's in the NFL, and a very good set of Wr's?

Unless you meant in prior seasons in Washington I'm not sure how you would compare him to our situation this year at all.

 

[Crimson Warrior]

This is a thread comparing him to an inevitable Hall of Famer. Wilson could retire tomorrow and would be a first ballot guy.

(For what it's worth, I'm not sure if you're genuinely asking me, or trying to claim no one has compared him to HOF-tier players.)

There were people in the offseason saying that KM is more athletic, more accurate, and more mindful on the field in avoiding hits than RW.

A couple of posts referencing "Hall of Famer" though, using my Google-fu...







Just bolding some comments after a short search that maybe don't explicitly say "Hall of Fame," but you may as well say it if you're saying the NFL has never seen his skillset before.

Thanks for quoting that post Solar7. Pre-draft, my main point was that the kid was just oozing with talent. Sick-talented. And that although he was a risk, it was a risk worth taking.

Feeling pretty good about that take this morning.

 

[Solar7]

Just like David Johnson is having a bad streak.

16 games isnt a bad streak.

You're skewing the data. Go back and look at the back half of 2018 where he has one admittedly really bad game against the Bears, but has two nearly flawless 4 TD games. Do you even watch him play or is this just a "I hate the Rams" thing?

Sigh..

Solar7, check it out man. It's fun to have a guy on your team that you can get excited about. Dream about leading your team to a championship. That's all we're doing.

It's not fun when it's borderline delusional. What I'm dreaming about? The guy beating a good team. The guy leading us to a winning record. Let's get some of those steps out of the way.

It's like trying to get that next promotion at work and dreaming about getting your own private yacht and helicopter. I'm just dreaming about having enough money to afford a boat and retirement.

 

[Solar7]

Obviously we'd like a higher TD rate yes but there's more to it. And I'm a huge Wilson fan but one of the reasons we're in most of our games now is Kyler isn't turning the ball over, he's got a much lower INT and fumble rate than Wilson did as a rookie. So yeah if he was throwing a TD twice as regularly we'd have a better offense, but if he was turning the ball over at the rate Wilson did as a rookie we'd probably have a worse record, we simply don't have a defense that can withstand turnovers. Wilson as a rookie had a 2.5% INT rate, Kyler is currently 1.4, nearly half, that protecting the ball is why we're not getting blown out. Look at the Ravens game really good team, beat NE, we were in that game entirely because we didnt' turn it over. Next week Kyler got behind and turned it over twice and Carolina blew us out.

It's come down but Kyler is still throwing the ball more often than almost any rookie in NFL history has, Wilson had a great rookie year but he was in a totally different situation.

I don't think Kyler is a HOF at this point in his career that's silly, but I do think if we had the defense Seattle had, and Marshawn Lynch to grind out the clock, we'd have much more than 3 wins right now.

These are all valid takes. It's nice that KM hasn't turned the ball over much. I mean, he was directly responsible for a pick 6. But he's a rookie and it happens. I just don't like any of the stat comparisons in the OP because the situations are so insanely different.

Cousins has one of the best defenses in the NFL, one of the best RB's in the NFL, and a very good set of Wr's?

Unless you meant in prior seasons in Washington I'm not sure how you would compare him to our situation this year at all.

Yes, I was talking about Washington. Cousins is now proving that he can win if given a decent supporting cast, which he never really had until coming to MN. But the only reason he's even really in this conversation is that a ton of posters still rip on me for wanting him two years ago.

 

[Russ Smith]

They didn't have to trust the ball in RW's hands because they had a great team. Do you think if David Johnson and the defense were playing like it was 2015, we'd have Kyler throw for 360 attempts in 10 games?

I'm not sure if you're intentionally missing the point here. Kyler isn't getting this kind of volume because he's just so good that we don't ever want the ball out of his hands, it's because in most games we're struggling to keep up or stop anyone. It doesn't matter if this was Kyler, Hundley, Rosen, or Brian Hoyer, we'd be throwing this much because we have to.

Probably true but again IF Wilson had to throw the ball as much as a rookie as Kyler has to, do you think Seattle's record would have been as good? Because statistically with how much he turned it over the first 10 games, if he was throwing the ball more that means more INT's, more fumbles and likely less wins. That is the point with Kyler that really impresses me, the whole show is on his back and really save one game, Carolina, he has yet to just crap the bed and turn the ball over a bunch. We really had 2 games all year where he had a very reliable run game, Giants and 49ers. We won the first one and nearly won the 2nd one against an unbeaten team with a great defense.

Wilson ran much more as a rookie but not because he had to, I've been saying it all year we actually need Kyler to run the ball more because it's one of the more reliable parts of our offense, and it opens everything else up because when teams don't have to account for him we can't run and we don't, until last week, beat anybody over the top.

as others have said the last 6 games Wilson was arguably the best QB in the NFL as a rookie, I certainly don't expect that from Kyler. But given what we ask of Kyler compared to what Seattle asked of Wilson, I'm pretty impressed.

 

[Solar7]

Probably true but again IF Wilson had to throw the ball as much as a rookie as Kyler has to, do you think Seattle's record would have been as good? Because statistically with how much he turned it over the first 10 games, if he was throwing the ball more that means more INT's, more fumbles and likely less wins. That is the point with Kyler that really impresses me, the whole show is on his back and really save one game, Carolina, he has yet to just crap the bed and turn the ball over a bunch. We really had 2 games all year where he had a very reliable run game, Giants and 49ers. We won the first one and nearly won the 2nd one against an unbeaten team with a great defense.

Wilson ran much more as a rookie but not because he had to, I've been saying it all year we actually need Kyler to run the ball more because it's one of the more reliable parts of our offense, and it opens everything else up because when teams don't have to account for him we can't run and we don't, until last week, beat anybody over the top.

as others have said the last 6 games Wilson was arguably the best QB in the NFL as a rookie, I certainly don't expect that from Kyler. But given what we ask of Kyler compared to what Seattle asked of Wilson, I'm pretty impressed.

No, I don't think Seattle's record would have been as good if the rest of their team was comprised of maybe 4 guys they didn't actively want to replace. It probably would have been messy.

But it's been pointed out that KM is playing very conservative with the ball and his throws. It is what it is.

And I'm impressed with KM too, I just don't think this comparison is either apt or relevant. I could easily cherrypick another less impressive player's first ten games and make a different argument. Like, for example, if I eyeball it, KM's first ten games look inferior to Baker Mayfield's, and look where he is at the moment.

I don't have the time to add up all of the stats, but it's worth a glance.

 

[Russ Smith]

No, I don't think Seattle's record would have been as good if the rest of their team was comprised of maybe 4 guys they didn't actively want to replace. It probably would have been messy.

But it's been pointed out that KM is playing very conservative with the ball and his throws. It is what it is.

And I'm impressed with KM too, I just don't think this comparison is either apt or relevant. I could easily cherrypick another less impressive player's first ten games and make a different argument. Like, for example, if I eyeball it, KM's first ten games look inferior to Baker Mayfield's, and look where he is at the moment.

I don't have the time to add up all of the stats, but it's worth a glance.

Yes but I think by now it's kind of obvious Kyler is being careful because he's been told to, because Kliff understands how bad the defense is and that if we turn the ball over we're going to get blown out. Last week was the first time all year IMO that the passing game actually looked like we had weapons, Kirk open repeatedly, Isabella contributing. Kyler had the big miss in the redzone on the first down but he could have easily had 5 TD passes last week, we dropped one he still had 3 and missed one.

2 of the biggest mistakes by Kyler in that game were a missed TD pass to Cooper and a fall by Sherfield that led to an INT(bad decision to throw it IMO). Neither one of those guys would even be on the team in Seattle or Cleveland during those QB's rookie year.

Outside of Fitz Kyler has almost no experienced guys to throw to, 2nd year player, rookie, kick returner, Byrd etc.

I'm certainly not saying he'll be better than Wilson, guy should win MVP this year, but he has a chance to be better he has a better arm and is a better runner. if he develops as Wilson has, and it will take longer he's less experienced, he has a chance to be better.

That's impressive to me.

 

[gimpy]

So many different people are putting blame on KM for the interception he threw last week. I guess I just don't understand. Did he throw the ball after the receiver was tripped and fell down? Was the receiver not open or covered closely or double - triple teamed when he threw it? If the player had not been tripped, would the pass have been a completion?

 

[ajcardfan]

So many different people are putting blame on KM for the interception he threw last week. I guess I just don't understand. Did he throw the ball after the receiver was tripped and fell down? Was the receiver not open or covered closely or double - triple teamed when he threw it? If the player had not been tripped, would the pass have been a completion?

I don't understand it either, I saw it exactly the way you did. But, after 20 years (holy crap!!) with this board, I know many people just love to criticize players. Yes, it is often deserved, but it definitely veers into being overly critical, IMHO, at times.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Seahawks had the number 1 defense in the nfl that year and a top flight running back.

lol thank you for repeating what he already said. Doesn’t change any of the other facts.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Just like David Johnson is having a bad streak.

16 games isnt a bad streak.

Whoa, you aren't saying that Murray is on a 'bad streak' are you?

 

[Crimson Warrior]

So many different people are putting blame on KM for the interception he threw last week. I guess I just don't understand. Did he throw the ball after the receiver was tripped and fell down? Was the receiver not open or covered closely or double - triple teamed when he threw it? If the player had not been tripped, would the pass have been a completion?

It's true that it was bad luck that our receiver was tripped, and I know I'm being really hard on him gimpy.

But he threw the ball while under duress, and floated it a little bit. Maybe I'm not being realistic, but IMHO, if you're going to throw the ball in that situation (late in the game, leading, and deep in FG range), then a QB should throw it so no defender has a chance to intercept it. So, it was a mistake. I guess a rookie mistake, but one none-the-less.

I'm K1's biggest fan, and it was sick-bad luck on the play, but I think the above is fair. If I'm off base, let me know.

 

[BW52]

Kyler is a better rookie than Russ and will be a better qb than Russ now and I believe Russ may be a top 10 all time qb when its all said and done.

LMFAO .Wilson has done well for years.When Km has success over a period of time then blabber away.

 

[BW52]

Sigh..

Solar7, check it out man. It's fun to have a guy on your team that you can get excited about. Dream about leading your team to a championship. That's all we're doing.

Dreaming is exactly what it is …..with some uberkyler fanboys losing touch with reality.

 

[Russ Smith]

So many different people are putting blame on KM for the interception he threw last week. I guess I just don't understand. Did he throw the ball after the receiver was tripped and fell down? Was the receiver not open or covered closely or double - triple teamed when he threw it? If the player had not been tripped, would the pass have been a completion?

I see that and yeah it was bad luck. For me it was a bad decision because of circumstances. Up 4 points on the 15 yard line you're thinking worst case scenario we kick a FG and are up a TD. So you need to be extra careful which is precisely why I'm not entirely sure why we threw the ball there anything but a safe short pass. We ran on first down and used about 45 seconds off the clock. I know we're thinking TD and the game is over and it is hindsight.

On the game thread someone was talking about ugly win but I'll take it and I responded you've been a Cards fan too long to assume this game is over, the INT wasn't long after that.

So it wasn't a terrible decision or a bad throw etc it was just unfortunate and something you hate because he'd played so well up that save the one missed throw to Cooper in the redzone.

 

[GatorAZ]

So many different people are putting blame on KM for the interception he threw last week. I guess I just don't understand. Did he throw the ball after the receiver was tripped and fell down? Was the receiver not open or covered closely or double - triple teamed when he threw it? If the player had not been tripped, would the pass have been a completion?

The receiver was covered and tripped. It was a bad decision and bad luck at the same time, at the worst possible time. Kliff already took blame for the play call like a smart coach with a rookie QB does.

 

[TaylorSwift]

I dunno, maybe I'm at a disadvantage because of my career, being mostly stuck in stats and some kind of predictive modeling with digital marketing. It's probably what is driving me crazy about the whole thing.

If I walked into a meeting and said I view our campaign a success because it mirrored the sales production of a campaign from last year, but I had an increased budget of 42% to get the same (slightly lesser) result, I'd be laughed out of the room. It's just one of those things.


If I didn't like your username so much I'd be calling out this hot take way more.

LMFAO .Wilson has done well for years.When Km has success over a period of time then blabber away.

I am just talking talent

Of course Russell is a far more accomplished than Kyler and better by tradiitonal measurements, but eye test says Kyler is a better rookie qb than 2012 Russ.

His arm talent is better and his legs are faster.

 

[AZCB34]

So if I am following this, the NFL should shutdown because there will never be a better QB than Kyler....after only 10 games. I will miss football on Sundays.