Lauri Markkanen

[AzStevenCal]

I've watched some film, but mostly been reading about him. I just think with his limited capabilities he's (obviously) just another version of Frye, or Anderson, and while both are great assets to a team...you certainly wouldn't want to draft a Frye in the top 10. Lauri isn't a player that can catapult your team to the next level, and with his defensive limitations as a big man...that can hurt your team significantly if he's not consistently knocking down shots. There's a good amount of very talented big men and guards in this draft...ones that if they reach their potential could be much more of an impact than Lauri.

Here's a decent article on Lauri:
https://www.si.com/nba/2017/05/26/2017-nba-draft-lauri-markkanen-arizona-dirk-nowitzki-ryan-anderson

Yeah, I've read it and I wasn't impressed. He makes an awful lot out of one play where Lauri got taken advantage of by a backup center. The guy has almost 2 years and 20 pounds on him and he gets position on him and rides him 10 feet out of the play. You see that often, even in the NBA, although usually there's a whistle involved too.

I can show you far worse defensive performances by every player in this top 10 (especially the heavily touted Josh Jackson). If you had watched the Cats play, you would have seen a big man that does all the little things a team needs to win. Channing did that same thing for us too when he was in Phoenix. We let him walk for 8M a year and we've been a lesser team ever since. While there have been other factors, his loss had a lot to do with our rapid decline.

IMO, Markkanen as a freshman, is already at least the equal of Channing Frye when he entered the NBA following his senior year. So, yes, maybe he's another Frye, if he fails to improve, but why is anyone expecting 19 year old Markkanen to have maxed out while counting on improvement from all these other teens? He has the frame to handle at least another 25 pounds IMO which will hopefully help him hold his position better than he showed in that video (and Channing showed, almost every game).

 

[Carolinacacti]

Where are you advocating we play Markkanen? Chriss is our 4. Are you playing him at the 5 or saying we should take Chriss' backup at 4?

If you take Fox he will be a backup. Issac will be a backup. MKG jr will be a bust. Tatum, yes another backup. The bigs in this years draft can shoot and that's what the Suns need.

 

[AzStevenCal]

You like Markkanen a lot to have him as the Suns starting PF.

I mostly see him as a role player until he develops physically somewhere down the road.

My current top five picks are currently as follows: Fultz, Ball, Fox, Tatum and Jackson. I'm beginning to think more and more the Suns draft Tatum and I'm getting comfortable with it. He does so many things well. Hopefully he can improve his defense.

I'm not too big on labels, I just think Lauri is already a better player than Chriss or Bender. As I've said before, I think the trio can handle the front court positions once they've all filled out and added some muscle. But I don't see Lauri as a backup to either of those guys, ever.

And yeah, I think we take Tatum too.

 

[Mainstreet]

I'm not too big on labels, I just think Lauri is already a better player than Chriss or Bender. As I've said before, I think the trio can handle the front court positions once they've all filled out and added some muscle. But I don't see Lauri as a backup to either of those guys, ever.

And yeah, I think we take Tatum too.

So do you have a comparison for Markkanen?

 

[AzStevenCal]

So do you have a comparison for Markkanen?

Some place between Channing and Dirk. I doubt he ever reaches Dirk's level, he's one of the all time greats. But I doubt, even more so, that he will remain at Frye's level. I think he becomes the player we'd have wanted Channing to become. A more clutch version of Channing. He'll be the kind of player that puts up pretty good stats but the most important part of his game is how his presence will enable others to excel. He'll make the ball handler's job (Bled, Book, Ulis or whoever) a lot easier, either by drawing the big man away from the key, working the two man game or by making himself available for the catch and shoot at the 3 point line.

 

[Mainstreet]

Some place between Channing and Dirk. I doubt he ever reaches Dirk's level, he's one of the all time greats. But I doubt, even more so, that he will remain at Frye's level. I think he becomes the player we'd have wanted Channing to become. A more clutch version of Channing. He'll be the kind of player that puts up pretty good stats but the most important part of his game is how his presence will enable others to excel. He'll make the ball handler's job (Bled, Book, Ulis or whoever) a lot easier, either by drawing the big man away from the key, working the two man game or by making himself available for the catch and shoot at the 3 point line.

Now I'm trying to go back in time. Were you wanting to keep Frye and I was in favor of letting him walk? I'm not sure but I think you liked Frye more than I did.

I wanted Channing Frye to be Amare.

I'm joking a bit but Frye was asked to fill those shoes.

Of course the Suns acquired Scola later on.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Now I'm trying to go back in time. Were you wanting to keep Frye and I was in favor of letting him walk? I'm not sure but I think you liked Frye more than I did.

I wanted Channing Frye to be Amare.

I'm joking a bit but Frye was asked to fill those shoes.

Of course the Suns acquired Scola later on.

IMO the difference between our 25 win season and the 48 win season that followed wasn't just the addition of Bledsoe. It was also the fact we replaced Scola and O'Neal (Jermaine) with Channing.

I think many of us here got caught up in what Channing couldn't do well and missed the fact that our best players (Goran and Eric) were so much better because of the presence of Frye. Even today, Eric's game suffers from the lack of a big man that can open the lane for him and provide an outlet when he can't drive all the way to the rim. Not to mention an effective pick and roll/pick and pop partner, something that Lauri also thrives at.

 

[Errntknght]

So do you have a comparison for Markkanen?

Nowitzki - when Dirk broke into the league he was considered a tall, skinny SF and a typically soft Euro. He played 20 mpg and scored 8.2 pts/gm on 41% shooting overall and 21% from 3. Also, 3.4 rbs, 1 ast, 0.6 blks. The next year he was moved to PF and improved greatly almost across the board but he was never considered a good interior player. His third year he cracked 20 ppg and in his fifth year 25 ppg - where he stayed for the next 7 years. He played 38 minutes a game in that time frame and averaged 75+ games per year. For the whole of his 19 year career (so far) he averaged 73 games,
and 35 mpg. I think it is Dirk's longevity and heavy usage that Lauri will have the most trouble matching - unless he starts suffering from the yips on his shot. If you recall the Mava always had a physically strong C paired with Dirk in the frontcourt and I suspect we'll have to do the same thing with Markannen.

 

[Mainstreet]

Nowitzki - when Dirk broke into the league he was considered a tall, skinny SF and a typically soft Euro. He played 20 mpg and scored 8.2 pts/gm on 41% shooting overall and 21% from 3. Also, 3.4 rbs, 1 ast, 0.6 blks. The next year he was moved to PF and improved greatly almost across the board but he was never considered a good interior player. His third year he cracked 20 ppg and in his fifth year 25 ppg - where he stayed for the next 7 years. He played 38 minutes a game in that time frame and averaged 75+ games per year. For the whole of his 19 year career (so far) he averaged 73 games,
and 35 mpg. I think it is Dirk's longevity and heavy usage that Lauri will have the most trouble matching - unless he starts suffering from the yips on his shot. If you recall the Mava always had a physically strong C paired with Dirk in the frontcourt and I suspect we'll have to do the same thing with Markannen.

If the Suns or any team thought this (comparable to Norwitzki), they would draft him and never think twice.

 

[Mainstreet]

IMO the difference between our 25 win season and the 48 win season that followed wasn't just the addition of Bledsoe. It was also the fact we replaced Scola and O'Neal (Jermaine) with Channing.

I think many of us here got caught up in what Channing couldn't do well and missed the fact that our best players (Goran and Eric) were so much better because of the presence of Frye. Even today, Eric's game suffers from the lack of a big man that can open the lane for him and provide an outlet when he can't drive all the way to the rim. Not to mention an effective pick and roll/pick and pop partner, something that Lauri also thrives at.

I still can't get on the keep Frye bandwagon although I think he was underrated. I'm much more open to Lauri if he came anywhere close to being like Dirk. Maybe I'd consider him in a trade-down.

 

[AZCrazy]

If we're not keeping Len, we need a center more than anything. Chandler is on borrowed minutes by now, Williams is a quality backup, and unless you want to play 180 lb Bender or Chriss at center, we don't have a center on the team. I'm not suggesting we draft Markannen, I'm saying we should keep Len and get a game changing stud.

Wouldn't you guys love to see Boston pick Ball and really gum up the works?

 

[mojorizen7]

We need more players who can primarily and effectively guard other players...and contribute in the scoring column when they get shots.

 

[3rdside]

Watched more Tatum video - we'd be crazy to pass him up at 4 if Jackson is gone.

But Markkanen will be very good - I'd take him over Isaac - and would be awesome to have an arizona alum on the roster.

 

[Errntknght]

I really don't understand people's reluctance to consider Markannen at #4. The stretch 4 is a key position and not only is he the best stretch 4 in this draft, he's got a decent chance to be tops in the league. Sure he needs to get stronger and more fit but he's already got the stroke, size and mobility - the size and mobility to guard other stretch 4s, for sure. He gets up and down the floor fine - he's fast enough to be a serious threat as the trailer on the fast break as he only has to run to the 3 pt line.
The other defensive aspect of his game that's important is defending the pick & roll/pop. I couldn't find many examples of that and in the few I saw, he seemed to me to be too inclined to switch. He did alright but he'll get burned overdoing that at the next level. (On offense, he thrived when his defender switched as he only had to shoot over a scrambling guard.) Of course, the switch can also leave him isolated on a guard and many are good at exploiting that, ala Nash. So it's TBD if he can learn the subtleties of defending the pick & roll/pop. Its not rocket science but some bigs never get it down, as we well know. (Corey Blount was the worst of anyone I ever saw trying to do it. Scola might have been worse - he'd simply abandon his man when he moved the perimeter, so you never saw him actually defending the P&R. At the other extreme Oliver Miller was aces.)
Assuming Lauri can be taught to be an average defender of the P&R/P - he seems reasonably bright and coachable so it's not much of a gamble. Frankly, I have more concerns about Watson knowing how to teach him or how to use him, in general. Also, McD will have to recognize the need for some muscle in the paint - something we will need in any case, IMO.
Len might even work paired with Lauri, but my guess is that Len will leave whether we want to keep him or not. I think he's tired of the Suns.
I'm not enamored of the idea of trading down to get Markannen with 8-9 pick as it's too likely to backfire, he's worthy of the #4 in this draft so just jump on him when the opportunity comes. We have need for better D at the wing but Jackson is greatly overrated in that regard and no one else is even hyped to be good.

 

[AzStevenCal]

In today's game, a good stretch big man is the true unicorn. Every team has those skills at the top of their shopping list. I think the rankings that show Lauri available at 9 or 12 are pure GM misdirection. I'd be shocked if he lasts past 7.

Fox would help our defense, Isaac might too but neither would really make our defensive woes go away. Tatum looks to be solid but he doesn't figure to excel on both ends any more than Lauri does. So, to me, unless Ryan sees a Rudy Gobert hidden somewhere in this class, it would be difficult to find a more impactful player than Markkanen.

I'd also work the heck out of Collins, Allen and any other big man that we think might replace and hopefully improve on Len's defense. If we find one that excels there to a similar degree as Lauri excels on offense, then great. But these days it's tough to put even one player on the court that doesn't carry his weight on offense so we need to be pretty sure if we're investing the 4th pick in someone solely for their D.

 

[sunsfan88]

I wouldn't play Markannen at the 4 if we got him, he's a 5. His immobility would fit better at the 5 and if he can add some strength he won't get taken advantage of down there much either.

I think him and Chriss would compliment each other well if Chriss can develop into that elite rim protector.

 

[Cheesebeef]

It's great that you're so confident about the future but what's your reasoning? Are you just echoing the big, white stiff rhetoric that accounts for most of the action in this thread or have you actually watched him play enough to add your own insight?.

Pretty sure this is a shot at people like who have called him a big white euro stiff... but I WATCHED games. That's where my opinion comes from.

He doesn't take people off the dribble, he has next to zero post up game and isn't a good rebounder. That's what I've seen with my own two eyes.

And now you're talking about him playing the stretch 4? Really? That would be a massive disaster. He could guard the stretch 4s in this league to save his life because of his lack of athleticism.

I am at such a loss why you're so high on a kid with limited upside who had a nice first six weeks of the season and then was mediocre the rest of the year

 

[AzStevenCal]

Pretty sure this is a shot at people like who have called him a big white euro stiff... but I WATCHED games. That's where my opinion comes from.

He doesn't take people off the dribble, he has next to zero post up game and isn't a good rebounder. That's what I've seen with my own two eyes.

And now you're talking about him playing the stretch 4? Really? That would be a massive disaster. He could guard the stretch 4s in this league to save his life because of his lack of athleticism.

I am at such a loss why you're so high on a kid with limited upside who had a nice first six weeks of the season and then was mediocre the rest of the year

Well, of course it is. But it's not a blanket indictment of everyone who feels that way. Just go through this thread or read about him on the internet. It's pretty common to see him described as a big white stiff and that comes from many who readily admit they've never actually watched him play.

And if that's what your own two eyes are telling you than we're at an impasse because I promise you, my own two eyes have seen him take people off the dribble. He does it primarily in the same kind of situations PJ Tucker would do it, in response to a hard close-out. The difference being, he's usually successful when doing it as opposed to PJ who would routinely turn it over or get stuffed at the rim. While it isn't a big part of his game, he handles the ball in the pick and roll too.

And it wasn't a nice 6 weeks. He shot 49% from 3 through the first 22 games. And he had an historically great 4 or 5 weeks where he shot 65% from the arc. Then he hit the wall. He didn't take any time off over the summer, between a heavy weight program and regular basketball, IMO, he lost his legs.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Well, of course it is. But it's not a blanket indictment of everyone who feels that way. Just go through this thread or read about him on the internet. It's pretty common to see him described as a big white stiff and that comes from many who readily admit they've never actually watched him play.

And if that's what your own two eyes are telling you than we're at an impasse because I promise you, my own two eyes have seen him take people off the dribble. He does it primarily in the same kind of situations PJ Tucker would do it, in response to a hard close-out. The difference being, he's usually successful when doing it as opposed to PJ who would routinely turn it over or get stuffed at the rim. While it isn't a big part of his game, he handles the ball in the pick and roll too.

And it wasn't a nice 6 weeks. He shot 49% from 3 through the first 22 games. And he had an historically great 4 or 5 weeks where he shot 65% from the arc. Then he hit the wall. He didn't take any time off over the summer, between a heavy weight program and regular basketball, IMO, he lost his legs.

A 19 year old kid "losing his legs" in a 38 game college seasons is pretty pathetic, IMO. I mean, if that's gonna happen in a 38 games season, how the hell is he going to last in 82 games a season... especially since he's likely going to be playing summer league games and working on his game every off-season, if he's truly going to be "Hall Of Fame" worthy like you believe he can be.

And what PJ Tucker and Markannen dribbling when someone runs hard at them isn't taking someone off the dribble. Taking someone off the dribble means you're face up with someone and you then have the speed/handle to make a move around the guy. Being able to get around a guy who overcommits when the ball gets to you doesn't show he can get his own shot. I mean, if you're comparing his game to PJ Tucker, that says everything I need to know about his athleticism/ability to take it to the hole.

 

[AzStevenCal]

A 19 year old kid "losing his legs" in a 38 game college seasons is pretty pathetic, IMO.

It happens, often. That's why they talk about the Freshman wall. He played major minutes, for a freshman, and he did it without an off season. It doesn't matter if you're 13 or 30, tired legs, tired arm - those are real things.

And I didn't say he's hall of fame worthy, just like I didn't say I wanted to play him as our stretch 4. I have said, several times, that he could be hall of fame worthy. And I also said that if he continued to play like he did during that great stretch that he will indeed be in the Hall of Fame. That was a point about how great he'd played during that stretch, not a prediction. But I've never unqualifiedly stated (or at least, never intended to say) he was on his way to the HOF.

I have no idea what his future holds but it's my opinion that the only reason he isn't going first in this draft and the single most likely attribute that will keep him from becoming a Hall of Fame type player is his less than ideal length. They aren't Kelly Olynyk short but they aren't ideal length either. Fortunately he has great hands and the frame to handle more muscle, both traits should enable to play down low. He didn't show a lot of post moves but he didn't have much opportunity to as the team needed him to play the forward spots most of the year. But he did just fine the few games late in the season where he had to fill in for Ristic in the post.

And I have said that I think you can play Bender, Chriss and Markkanen together and argue over who plays which position. But I've never stated that I wanted him as our stretch 4, just a stretch big. I'll say it again, in today's game position labels mean almost nothing.

And yes, I've seen him take his defender off the dribble. So has anyone else that's watched every UA game. It didn't happen often but it's not a Bigfoot sighting either. It was never pure speed for him, but I'm not going to ignore him simply because he uses ball fakes to get past a defender.

Lastly, yes, PJ Tucker had poor handles for someone that's maybe 6'5. But those same moves and ball handling skills mean something when you're talking about a 7 footer.

 

[Chaplin]

Losing his legs? Really? I tend to think it was the return of Trier that did it. If a kid can't handle diversity like that, how is he going to handle what the NBA is going to throw at him?

I like Lauri, but you are severely overrating him Steve.

 

[Cheesebeef]

It happens, often. That's why they talk about the Freshman wall. He played major minutes, for a freshman, and he did it without an off season. It doesn't matter if you're 13 or 30, tired legs, tired arm - those are real things.

If you're one of the best players in the game and worthy of a number 4 pick and possibly a HOF level talent, then... no... it doesn't happen and it sure as hell doesn't happen often to players of the caliber you describe him as.

And I didn't say he's hall of fame worthy, just like I didn't say I wanted to play him as our stretch 4.

I have said, several times, that he could be hall of fame worthy. And I also said that if he continued to play like he did during that great stretch that he will indeed be in the Hall of Fame. That was a point about how great he'd played during that stretch, not a prediction. But I've never unqualifiedly stated (or at least, never intended to say) he was on his way to the HOF.

http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/forum/threads/lottery-count-down.250015/page-24#post-3509268

"Each to their own but get back to me in a decade or two when Lauri is being talked about as a HOFer."

Seems like a pretty confident boast.

I have no idea what his future holds but it's my opinion that the only reason he isn't going first in this draft and the single most likely attribute that will keep him from becoming a Hall of Fame type player is his less than ideal length. They aren't Kelly Olynyk short but they aren't ideal length either. Fortunately he has great hands and the frame to handle more muscle, both traits should enable to play down low. He didn't show a lot of post moves but he didn't have much opportunity to as the team needed him to play the forward spots most of the year. But he did just fine the few games late in the season where he had to fill in for Ristic in the post.

And I have said that I think you can play Bender, Chriss and Markkanen together and argue over who plays which position.

And I've responded that in doing so, you have a tissue soft front line.

But I've never stated that I wanted him as our stretch 4, just a stretch big. I'll say it again, in today's game position labels mean almost nothing.


And yes, I've seen him take his defender off the dribble. So has anyone else that's watched every UA game. It didn't happen often but it's not a Bigfoot sighting either. It was never pure speed for him, but I'm not going to ignore him simply because he uses ball fakes to get past a defender.

Shawn Marion used to take his defender off the dribble every blue moon as well... that didn't mean he could do it. Sun shines on a dog's ass Steve. I mean, can you even point to ONE instance of him actually facing up, and taking a defender off the dribble? I watched a decent amount of games, never saw it live and have watched some of his highlight reels and haven't seen it. You'd think if he actually possessed that skill on an even inconsistent basis it would show up in one of the highlight, reels.

Lastly, yes, PJ Tucker had poor handles for someone that's maybe 6'5. But those same moves and ball handling skills mean something when you're talking about a 7 footer.

Not when you're going against guys just as athletic or MORE athletic than you. Do you really think he's going to be able to take the KDs, Porzingis, Towns, Davis off the dribble? Everything's relative. It's not about "having handles like PJ" it's about having the same LIMITED GAME.

What I think is going on here is that as a Cats fan, you look at their team/players with rose colored glasses, much like I've seen you do with the Suns and their players. I just think you lack a little objectivity when talking about players from teams you love and it's clouding your opinion here. I mean to even mention HOF numerous times with a guy like this wouldn't be said by anyone but a diehard Cats fan.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Losing his legs? Really? I tend to think it was the return of Trier that did it. If a kid can't handle diversity like that, how is he going to handle what the NBA is going to throw at him?

I like Lauri, but you are severely overrating him Steve.

I get that, you join a large group here. And I'm not even sure that I'm correct, I just AM sure that a lot of the things said about him here and elsewhere on the net are wrong.

I don't know how anyone can say his ceiling is Kelly Olynyk or Ryan Anderson. I don't see how anyone can call him a poor man's Channing Frye when his freshman season was so superior, in every way, to every season except Frye's 4th year and even that was mostly a wash. I don't get how anyone can call him one dimensional or label him as a typical big white stiff. IMO none of those opinions are supportable, the evidence is overwhelmingly against them.

There's a good chance his peak won't be much better than Channing Frye. But we look at Tatum and project him forward, we do the same with Fox and Jackson and everyone else. We don't assume all of those guys are coming out of college as the best player they'll ever be and I see no reason to do that with Lauri either.

 

[Chaplin]

I get that, you join a large group here. And I'm not even sure that I'm correct, I just AM sure that a lot of the things said about him here and elsewhere on the net are wrong.

I don't know how anyone can say his ceiling is Kelly Olynyk or Ryan Anderson. I don't see how anyone can call him a poor man's Channing Frye when his freshman season was so superior, in every way, to every season except Frye's 4th year and even that was mostly a wash. I don't get how anyone can call him one dimensional or label him as a typical big white stiff. IMO none of those opinions are supportable, the evidence is overwhelmingly against them.

There's a good chance his peak won't be much better than Channing Frye. But we look at Tatum and project him forward, we do the same with Fox and Jackson and everyone else. We don't assume all of those guys are coming out of college as the best player they'll ever be and I see no reason to do that with Lauri either.

Keep in mind that the draft is a crapshoot. For every Steve Nash at 13 there are dozens of Tkitischvilli's at spots 3-12. There's also a big difference between what you are implying as people saying Lauri isn't worth any draft pick vs. picking him at #4. I myself have said that IF we had a pick in the 9-12 range, I'd be ok with picking him.

There isn't two extremes here--pick him at 4 or not at all--in fact, if we had the #10 pick, there would be very few, if any, people on this board that wouldn't at least consider drafting Markannen there, if not outright saying they definitely would draft him there.

Regardless of who the comparisons are, which mean absolutely nothing. It's possible he could be better than Frye or Anderson, but it's possible he could be worse.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I get that, you join a large group here. And I'm not even sure that I'm correct, I just AM sure that a lot of the things said about him here and elsewhere on the net are wrong.

I don't know how anyone can say his ceiling is Kelly Olynyk or Ryan Anderson. I don't see how anyone can call him a poor man's Channing Frye when his freshman season was so superior, in every way, to every season except Frye's 4th year and even that was mostly a wash. I don't get how anyone can call him one dimensional or label him as a typical big white stiff. IMO none of those opinions are supportable, the evidence is overwhelmingly against them.

Where is the overwhelming evidence to show he has more dimensions than just shooting? He's not a rim protector or good rebounder so he doesn't really give you another dimension on the defensive end. As for offense, you yourself compared his offensive game to PJ Tucker's, who is as one-dimensional as it gets on offense.

There's a good chance his peak won't be much better than Channing Frye. But we look at Tatum and project him forward, we do the same with Fox and Jackson and everyone else. We don't assume all of those guys are coming out of college as the best player they'll ever be and I see no reason to do that with Lauri either.

With Fox and Jackson it's because we see explosive parts of their game AND they're not one-dimensional as a lot of us believe Lauri is. They both have shown high levels of play on D, have handles and neither of them "lost their legs" as the season went on. The only real knock on their games is they can pretty much do everything BUT shoot. But shooting can be learned... you can't learn athleticism. Lauri isn't going to get faster or be able to explode against big men down low because he's simply limited athletically. Maybe he'll develop a post-game. Maybe at his peak he can Brook Lopez, but even Lopez had game down on the block in college.

With Tatum, I don't see a lot of people projecting him forward much. He's pretty much heralded as the lowest ceiling, highest floor amongst the top picks because he's got a pretty polished game. And to be honest, I want no part of him. Maybe he can be a Paul Pierce type, but I don't know how successful pierce would be in today's NBA.