Let’s Take a Moment to Overreact to Kyler’s IG Page

[Brian in Mesa]

Things that make you go hmmm...

I wonder if Eric Burkhardt will use similar tactics when trying to get a new contract for Kliff?

 

[Stout]

Not really. Because if Kyler and his agent are acting like this now after 3 years and no real achievements then it's completely within their wheelhouse to pull a Julio a few years down the road.

Mm hmm.

 

[Stout]

And that raises a great point...signing Kyler now before the upcoming cap increases makes a ton of sense. Projections for the salary cap are pretty bullish, and if you wait too long, the Cardinals might be looking at $50+ million per year instead of $40ish million.

I want no part of KM at $40ish mill. Not at this point in time. Locking him in long-term at that kind of number and then having him crap the bed again would cripple us. Exercising the option (my preference) or signing him to a long-term deal in the $30ish mill range gives him the incentive to go improve. Signing the big contract lets him know he's arrived and he will only increasingly believe he's already doing everything right, IMO.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Not really. Because if Kyler and his agent are acting like this now after 3 years and no real achievements then it's completely within their wheelhouse to pull a Julio a few years down the road.

My statement was based on the idea that Kyler progresses. Current Kyler isn't really a resign...he's a pick up the 5th year option and one year franchise tag guy.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I want no part of KM at $40ish mill. Not at this point in time. Locking him in long-term at that kind of number and then having him crap the bed again would cripple us. Exercising the option (my preference) or signing him to a long-term deal in the $30ish mill range gives him the incentive to go improve. Signing the big contract lets him know he's arrived and he will only increasingly believe he's already doing everything right, IMO.

40ish million is the baseline. The next QB contracts will approach 50 million. Derek Carr will get near 50 million for his next contract and he has never really elevated the Raiders above mediocrity.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I would let this coming season play out and see where it goes. I wouldn't sign Kyler to a huge contract at this this time. But what sucks is that I bet if he does play well next year and can get the monkey off his back, he's going to ask for a lot more.

Crappy situation for the Cardinals.

 

[BritCard]

40ish million is the baseline. The next QB contracts will approach 50 million. Derek Carr will get near 50 million for his next contract and he has never really elevated the Raiders above mediocrity.

Derek Carr is not getting $50m. No way.

I know there is a prevailing wisdom that next man up sets the market but that's gone out the window with QB salaries.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Derek Carr is not getting $50m. No way.

I know there is a prevailing wisdom that next man up sets the market but that's gone out the window with QB salaries.

I didn't say $50 million, I said nearly $50 million.

On the open market, Derek Carr would get close.

 

[BritCard]

I would let this coming season play out and see where it goes. I wouldn't sign Kyler to a huge contract at this this time. But what sucks is that I bet if he does play well next year and can get the monkey off his back, he's going to ask for a lot more.

Crappy situation for the Cardinals.

I'm absolutely certain the Cards would rather pay $50m per year for a QB that have proven he can lead the team, knocks the bad body language on the head and wins crunch games than pay $40-$45m for one that does none of those things.

 

[BritCard]

I didn't say $50 million, I said nearly $50 million.

On the open market, Derek Carr would get close.

I don't think Carr gets more than $42m. He might struggle to get to $40m.

 

[SoonerLou]

The thing that hurts Kyler is 2020. If he didnt have the 2nd half dip/post shoulder injury play then I think he would be in good standing.

The 2nd half this year was more about losing Hopkins and AJ getting really old really fast imo.

I think if he finished 2020 strong, we'd just say the injury bug got us this year and regroup next year. However, now its questions of can he stay healthy and can he play well without good weapons.

Part of the organization's reluctance might also be what they think of Hopkins. God forbid, but he's creeping towards 30 and there's no guarantee he ages gracefully.


And as I've been told Baker's status plays a factor in this. Say what you will about Baker but he won a playoff game (in Cleveland) and actually finished the 2nd half of his 3rd yr strong. Messed up his shoulder the 2nd game of the year and now the Browns are considering all options. Things change fast in the NFL so his agent is being ridiculously over the top to prevent that just in case.

 

[SoonerLou]

I don't think Carr gets more than $42m. He might struggle to get to $40m.

If Derek gets 42 then I cant blame his agent for wanting his client to get more.

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

 

[TRW]

If Derek gets 42 then I cant blame his agent for wanting his client to get more.

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

One important thing, IMO, is that Carr us pretty widely lauded as LEADING and holding that dumpster fire of a season together for the Raiders. Maybe going by stats alone you could argue the point BUT the leadership aspect between the two is diametrically opposed and changes the parameters of who "deserves" more money.

I don't begrudge KM wanting the money but he's really going about it the wrong way. He and his agent are looking really stupid right now and are being roasted on almost every front.

 

[GoldGloveschmidt]

Things that make you go hmmm...

I wonder if Eric Burkhardt will use similar tactics when trying to get a new contract for Kliff?

Absolutely not - there is a player empowerment movement across all sports, that doesn't apply to coaches. Kliff is easily replaceable, Kyler is not.

 

[SoonerLou]

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

 

[Jetstream Green]

One important thing, IMO, is that Carr us pretty widely lauded as LEADING and holding that dumpster fire of a season together for the Raiders. Maybe going by stats alone you could argue the point BUT the leadership aspect between the two is diametrically opposed and changes the parameters of who "deserves" more money.

I don't begrudge KM wanting the money but he's really going about it the wrong way. He and his agent are looking really stupid right now and are being roasted on almost every front.

This, since it's not asking for more money (and you always ask for an outrageous amount in the beginning so you can get as much as you are capable once you start bargaining) but how this agent is handling this in a personal childish way in public... this is business

 

[BritCard]

If Derek gets 42 then I cant blame his agent for wanting his client to get more.

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

Stats are only a part of the equation.

Personally I don't think Carr is worth anywhere near that but I'm hedging my bets for crazy. Certainly he ain't getting close to $50m.

 

[kerouac9]

I don't really agree with the whole "Vets will get injured and draft picks won't" argument. Football outsiders did some data mining on this back in 2015 which showed very little difference.

It gets a bit lumpy in later years as there are not many players of those ages but you can see in absolute terms there is little difference.

A 21 year old has around 38% chance of missing a week. That dips to around 35-37% for ages 23 to 28. Then it goes up a little but tops out at 41% at age 31.

It's a similar picture for 4 weeks+ where a 25 year old has around 17% risk and a 32 year old just under 20%.

That's bigger in relative terms obviously but it's still only about 10% higher risk for an aging vet vs peak.

Many said Green was going to be an injury bust but he played all 17 games. Same with Conner but he played 15. Conversely Nuk has rarely missed time in his career but missed 7 games. Same with Hudson who has only missed more than 1 game once in 10 years but missed 4 this year. It's almost as if injuries are random.

You must be registered for see images attach

This is an interesting study; thanks for sharing it. Obviously there's some survivor bias as the years go on, which is part of my argument. Players who get injured can't be depended on to not be injured. It's the Beanie Wells Hypothesis.

I'd argue that if a player is 34 and hasn't missed significant time in his career, he's actually less likely to miss significant time in that next season. Availability and health is a skill.

But that's not who Keim signed. He signed injury cases in J.J. Watt and A.J. Green, plus drafted an injury case in Rondale Moore. As I say, "SHOCKING: Oft-injured player is injured."

 

[Brian in Mesa]

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

 

[cardncubfan]

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

 

[cardncubfan]

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

 

[cardncubfan]

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Just saying that a young QB doesn't get to make player personnel decisions and throwing a tantrum because "your guy" didn't get drafted is weak sauce.

We have also drafted other offensive players during the time period you mentioned.

Michal Menet, C, Penn State
Eno Benjamin, RB, Arizona State
Hakeem Butler, WR, Iowa State
KeeSean Johnson, WR, Fresno State
Lamont Gaillard, C, Georgia
Joshua Miles, OT, Morgan State
Caleb Wilson, TE, UCLA

This part of 4th rounders or lower is a joke, right?

 

[PJ1]

unless you are unsure of what yearly number he deserves, and would like to let him play his final contractual year

So weird considering that last week (Thursday or Friday) Michael Bidwill said that he'd spoken to Kyler personally.

This pointed out on several media reports I watched yesterday. Bidwill says he loves the guy and believes he will continue to get better and this is how they respond? Really foolish move.

 

[Brian in Mesa]

This part of 4th rounders or lower is a joke, right?

No. I had read it as we hadn’t drafted anyone on the offensive side of the ball which is not true. Many o-lines in the league have late round guys and even undrafted guys on them. It just depends on how well you draft and build chemistry.