Moving on from Kyler.

[daves]

I'm not a capologist, but I think the bonuses in his contract make him virtually untradeable. We'd have like 150 million in dead cap and there is no way to get out of that aspect for the next couple years.

You can get out of the deal in two years and it only hits you for 30ish mil. You can jump out earlier but you are hard re-setting because you have to eat 98 mil. Not a QB in this draft worth doing that for.

I thought the same myself, and said so here multiple times.

But then this article on SI Fan Nation quoted Dan Graziano on ESPN+ as saying:

Murray's new deal does complicate things down the road, but there is a window that would be optimal for a deal says Graziano.

"The key date for the Cardinals is the start of the 2024 league year, at which time nearly $31 million in guaranteed 2025 salary and bonuses becomes fully guaranteed. If the Cardinals decide to cut Murray after the 2023 season, they'll have paid him $103.3 million for two years of service and they'd incur a dead-money cap hit of about $81.5 million in 2024 (or, if they cut him post-June 1, $48.3 million in 2024 and $33.2 million in 2025)," said Graziano.

"If the Cardinals want to trade Murray after this season, and if they were able to do so before picking up the 2023 option, they would carry just a $23.228 million dead-money charge on their 2023 cap. But that would require them to persuade a team to take on a contract that pays Murray a guaranteed $75 million or so over the next two years."

So, perhaps there's more to Murray's contract structure than what's revealed on OverTheCap.com, which shows so much dead money that a trade would be inconceivable before 2024-2025.

Aha, now I see that if you enter "Trade (post June 1)" in the pull-down on OTC, it shows $13M cap hits every year from 2023-2026, and a $7M cap hit in 2027. I'm not exactly sure how that works, and am suspicious that it's quite different from Graziano's numbers and the "Trade (pre June 1)" numbers.

But if Graziano or those numbers are correct, the impossibility in moving on from Murray after this season would not be in the monstrous cap charge, but finding a trade partner to take on his salary with him coming off the major injury. Maybe it could be done with a Brock Osweiler kind of deal.

...dave

 

[Chopper0080]

If you really want a path out, you can eat 84 mil after next year. Some of this comes with short term sacrifices though as you will reduce your cap from 84 to 54

1-You have to be bad enough to take a top QB in the 2024 draft. You need the savings.

2-You would need to restructure Hopkins in 2024 before FA and then franchise Brown next year (2023) and get him bought into an extension pre-2024 FA.

3-You will need to get very young on the offensive line, RB, and some other spots.

4-You can re-sign some core players but need to be very selective. Probably can't expect to keep Allen, Murphy, Simmons and Collins.

 

[Vacard]

Why waste resources on a season that is over?

I’m talking about signing baker for next year

 

[Chopper0080]

I thought the same myself, and said so here multiple times.

But then this article on SI Fan Nation quoted Dan Graziano on ESPN+ as saying:

So, perhaps there's more to Murray's contract structure than what's revealed on OverTheCap.com, which shows so much dead money that a trade would be inconceivable before 2024-2025.

If Graziano is correct, the difficulty in moving on from Murray after this season would not be in the monstrous cap charge, but in finding a trade partner to take on his salary with him coming off the major injury. It might need to be a Brock Osweiler kind of deal.

...dave

Yeah...I mean, it is an option but not a realistic one. Especially because he won't be able to pass a physical. Next year is stuck. 2024 is the out but it costs you 84 mil and reduces your cap by 30 mil.

 

[ajcardfan]

9 months is closer to the rule than the exception nowadays.

It's all up to Kyler. Physical therapy and rehab from a serious injury/surgery blows. It hurts and it takes drive to do what you are supposed to do every day. The NFL is full of remarkable recoveries from torn ligaments and "never the same" recoveries.

 

[Russ Smith]

It's all up to Kyler. Physical therapy and rehab from a serious injury/surgery blows. It hurts and it takes drive to do what you are supposed to do every day. The NFL is full of remarkable recoveries from torn ligaments and "never the same" recoveries.

Kyler has been working hard physically his entire career. I watched a clip of Colt McCoy and he said he was devastated for Kyler and said we've been together for 2 years, I know how hard he works, I'll be right there to put my arm around him I've been through lots of injuries in my career I'll help him get through this. Made me feel much better about my concern that Colt might retire.

The issue with Murray has apparently been the study part, watching film, not the physical part and the first part of recovering from surgery is all physical. There is a point where it becomes more mental too as you have to push through hey why is my knee not bending as much as I want, but for me in all 3 recoveries the biggest mental hurdle has been wanting to push too fast and having to be told you can't if you do that you'll reinjure yourself.

My last one the lady who was doing supervised gym in PT told me with knee replacements she sees lots of people who struggle to get back and they go into 2 categories. The guy who loves to ride his bike and is cheating and doing way more riding than he's supposed to and thus is overworking, and the lady walking around with her cellphone when she's supposed to be doing lunges. If we can keep Kyler from being the first one I don't think we have to worry about him being the second one. You don't get the body he has by being lazy.

 

[ajcardfan]

Kyler has been working hard physically his entire career. I watched a clip of Colt McCoy and he said he was devastated for Kyler and said we've been together for 2 years, I know how hard he works, I'll be right there to put my arm around him I've been through lots of injuries in my career I'll help him get through this. Made me feel much better about my concern that Colt might retire.

The issue with Murray has apparently been the study part, watching film, not the physical part and the first part of recovering from surgery is all physical. There is a point where it becomes more mental too as you have to push through hey why is my knee not bending as much as I want, but for me in all 3 recoveries the biggest mental hurdle has been wanting to push too fast and having to be told you can't if you do that you'll reinjure yourself.

My last one the lady who was doing supervised gym in PT told me with knee replacements she sees lots of people who struggle to get back and they go into 2 categories. The guy who loves to ride his bike and is cheating and doing way more riding than he's supposed to and thus is overworking, and the lady walking around with her cellphone when she's supposed to be doing lunges. If we can keep Kyler from being the first one I don't think we have to worry about him being the second one. You don't get the body he has by being lazy.

Personally, my guess is he will do his best and want to prove himself.

 

[Chopper0080]

Here is the Kyler contract breakdown for people in terms of outs.

2023 - unless you trade him, there isn't one.

2024 - you can cut him which will result in a cap hit of 81 mil. 30 mil more than his scheduled cap hit that year. We actually have decent cap space in 2024 to deal with this.

2025 - this is the easy year. 45 mil cap hit. You save 12.4 mil by cutting him but he still hits the books for 33 mil. (EDIT: the contract is a little confusing in that there may be an additional salary and roster bonus guarantee that is triggered in March of 2024...yes, the prior year)

None of this factors in an increase in the salary cap which should occur.

 

[Proximo]

You mean like… Jamal Murray and Kawhi?

Even if it’s 9 months recovery, it almost always takes guys who rely on their athleticism that entire first season of working themselves back into peak condition before they look the same as pre-ACL tear. That means next year you have at best diminished Kyler and possibly no Kyler at all with a true comeback to peak not happening until 2024.

But let’s put all that aside if we can’t agree to how/when Kyler comes back from an ACL year late in the season. He’s now just officially injury prone. We’re talking three leg injuries the last two seasons, multiple non-contact injuries this season, and a shoulder injury that derailed the second half of the 2020 season. 3 straight years. Multiple issues that either drastically effected his play or ability to stay on the field.

Sadly, I don’t think he has the body to stay healthy playing with the big boys. And I don’t think that’s going to change the more injuries pile up over the course of his career moving forward.

Kawhi is an exception - apparently he had a botched surgery.

Kyler does not have to run to be effective enough to come back. Basketball is constant motion, there is much less with a QB.

Yeah the situation sucks. But the cards are pretty much stuck with him at least next year as I doubt anyone will trade for his contract. I'm not necessarily opposed to drafting a QB if our pick is high enough to get a top prospect. In fact I would much rather do that than spend it on an Offensive Tackle.

 

[GatorAZ]

I realize Kyler's legs are more important to him than Burrow but literally Burrow tore his ACL and MCL in late November and was back starting game 1 the next year.

If Kyler is just the ACL, and he's a fast healer, which we have no idea, he's only 3 weeks behind the schedule of Burrow.

Now Burrow if more of a pocket passer but the point is you CAN come back that quickly, it's just not a guarantee. To be back to full Kyler Murray yeah that's going to take longer.

But I can see him playing 12-13 games next season if rehab goes well.

Burrow is a hard comp for anyone b/c he’s on a different planet mentally. He looks better after taking his 8th hit of the game than he does in the first quarter. His brain/body should be studied.

 

[Russ Smith]

Burrow is a hard comp for anyone b/c he’s on a different planet mentally. He looks better after taking his 8th hit of the game than he does in the first quarter. His brain/body should be studied.

Sure but I'm just talking physically. As far as we know his injury was worse than Kyler because it was 2 ligaments, and he was able to get back.

The difference is he's a better pocket passer than Kyler is so his legs were less important.

The other thing is and maybe others know the answer better than I do. Kyler tore his RIGHT ACL, Burrow tore his left. It seems to me for a right handed QB the right ACL is worse because that's the leg you push off going forward and then land with the weight on the left knee? So it seems to me for a right hand QB a right knee injury is worse than a left knee injury would be?

 

[Cheesebeef]

Based on how long he took to come back from every one of his injuries, which outwardly seemed very minor (though of course we can't know for sure)... I would not expect him to be a fast healer!

...dave

Man, when @daves is pessimistic you KNOW we are royally screwed.

 

[GatorAZ]

Sure but I'm just talking physically. As far as we know his injury was worse than Kyler because it was 2 ligaments, and he was able to get back.

The difference is he's a better pocket passer than Kyler is so his legs were less important.

The other thing is and maybe others know the answer better than I do. Kyler tore his RIGHT ACL, Burrow tore his left. It seems to me for a right handed QB the right ACL is worse because that's the leg you push off going forward and then land with the weight on the left knee? So it seems to me for a right hand QB a right knee injury is worse than a left knee injury would be?

I agree but the mental aspect is also important in recovery. Some guys are never the same even if they’re healthy. I believe that is the first major injury of Kyler’s life.

 

[DaHilg]

Kawhi is an exception - apparently he had a botched surgery.

Kyler does not have to run to be effective enough to come back. Basketball is constant motion, there is much less with a QB.

Yeah the situation sucks. But the cards are pretty much stuck with him at least next year as I doubt anyone will trade for his contract. I'm not necessarily opposed to drafting a QB if our pick is high enough to get a top prospect. In fact I would much rather do that than spend it on an Offensive Tackle.

The Kentucky QB Levis, very similar physical attributes to Josh Allen but has been more accurate in college will be available at our pick if that’s the direction people want to go. Solid running QB as well.

Your Kyler trade value takes another hit if you choose to do that. A fresh start for all parties sounds best after having a day to think about it. I personally want Kyler as far from Kliffy as possible.

 

[Cards_Campos]

I realize Kyler's legs are more important to him than Burrow but literally Burrow tore his ACL and MCL in late November and was back starting game 1 the next year.

If Kyler is just the ACL, and he's a fast healer, which we have no idea, he's only 3 weeks behind the schedule of Burrow.

Now Burrow if more of a pocket passer but the point is you CAN come back that quickly, it's just not a guarantee. To be back to full Kyler Murray yeah that's going to take longer.

But I can see him playing 12-13 games next season if rehab goes well.

Thank you. The rational human post. This board is so far irrational it’s crazy. Move on. Kyler will suck. Blow the team up. We are close. We have good pieces. We have had some bad luck and injuries. The great are not great now a days because they are loaded with talent. Things just work. Look at the Rams. Look the Raiders. Look at Denver. Look at Tampa. I’m ok giving it 1 more year unless you can get Sean Payton.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Here’s the only thing I KNOW for sure… Keim can NOT be trusted to make a cornerstone top 5 draft pick.

They have to fire him. Missing on a pick this high will be a killer as we begin what likely could be a total rebuild.

 

[Stout]

Thank you. The rational human post. This board is so far irrational it’s crazy. Move on. Kyler will suck. Blow the team up. We are close. We have good pieces. We have had some bad luck and injuries. The great are not great now a days because they are loaded with talent. Things just work. Look at the Rams. Look the Raiders. Look at Denver. Look at Tampa. I’m ok giving it 1 more year unless you can get Sean Payton.

We are not close.

 

[Lambeau]

We will trade you Rodgers. Would you guys want him?

 

[ajcardfan]

The only real option in the short term is to get a new head coach and see what they can do with Kyler.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

Here’s the only thing I KNOW for sure… Keim can NOT be trusted to make a cornerstone top 5 draft pick.

They have to fire him. Missing on a pick this high will be a killer as we begin what likely could be a total rebuild.

Keim can NOT be trusted to do a great many things on this planet. Watch my dog, wash my car, clean the sh-tters on Hardy Drive, etc, etc

 

[Russ Smith]

The Kentucky QB Levis, very similar physical attributes to Josh Allen but has been more accurate in college will be available at our pick if that’s the direction people want to go. Solid running QB as well.

Your Kyler trade value takes another hit if you choose to do that. A fresh start for all parties sounds best after having a day to think about it. I personally want Kyler as far from Kliffy as possible.

he's the most polarizing QB in the draft because he has a GREAT arm and looks the part, but the stats are not that great and against good teams he's not been that good.

He's all over at one point some had him in the top 5, now some have him in the 15-20 range.

I expect us to pick too high to get him unless we traded down for multiple picks.

He does have a great arm though

 

[Jetstream Green]

You do not move on from Kyler, you actually give him even more of a chance now

 

[Stout]

The only real option in the short term is to get a new head coach and see what they can do with Kyler.

And new GM.

 

[BullheadCardFan]

And new GM.

100% this

 

[Harry]

For those who say he’ll be peak athlete Kyler by opening day next year, outside of AP (who was the biggest freak of nature ever), can anyone point to elite athletes who came back that fast?

It’s almost always that the first year a guy comes back, they’re a bit of a shell of themselves, but they CAN dial it back up the second season they’re back. Best example of that is Saquon Barkley. Blew his knee out in Game 2 of 2020. Came back after 2021 started and was mostly dogcrap, but looks like the superstar again in 2022.

Here’s one,

The Story Behind Amari Rodgers’s Stunning ACL Recovery

Despite tearing his ACL in late March, Clemson's Amari Rodgers was back in action by Week 2. The story of his rapid recovery includes dedication, a famous dad, a doctor and a new best friend.

www.si.com