Nash Scores, Suns Lose!

[dbUNIT16]

I did a little research on Steve Nash scoring, and how it affects the Suns. It's really quite amazing, I knew there were correlations, but this is really correlated more than I though. Here's the article I wrote for my blog:


An interesting, but logical phenomenon has been developing this season for the Phoenix Suns: when Steve Nash scores, the Phoenix Suns lose! This may be true for past seasons as well (I didn’t want to spend hours researching to verify this!), but for some reason this season it seems a lot more prevalent, so I decided to analyze the first 16 games of this season to verify my hunch! The numbers are quite staggering!

In three out of the four Suns losses this season, Nash was the leading scorer. The only loss in which Nash did not lead the team in scoring was the second game of the season versus the Los Angeles Lakers, in which the Suns were smashed, 119-98. Nash scored 19 points, while Barbosa led the team with 23. However, Nash only played 27 minutes in the game, and never reentered the game after leaving with 1:42 left to play in the third quarter because the game was so out of hand.

Overall, in four Suns losses, Steve Nash is averaging 26.25 points and 8.25 assists. Compare those numbers to his stats when the Suns win: 17.4 points and 11.75 assists. Just in case you want to compare either of these stats to his season average: 19.6 points, 10.9 assists.

Steve Nash has however led the team in scoring in two of Phoenix’s 12 victories this season. Not a great ratio! Nash scored 30 points in wins over Cleveland and Miami, the only times Nash has scored over 20 in a Phoenix victory.

This all seems pretty logical to me. I just wanted to verify the numbers, and found them to be even more predicting that what I imagined. Plain and simple, if Nash scores over 20 points in a game, the Suns lose 60% of the time (3 losses in 5 games). If Nash is the Suns leading scorer in a game, again, the Suns lose 60% of the time (3 losses in 5 games). In three of the Suns four losses this season (75%), Nash was the leading scorer (keep in mind in the first loss Nash did not play the final 13+ minutes of the game, and was only 4 points short of the Suns team high in points, 23).

Why is this the case? Simple! Nash is a pass first, shoot second point guard whose goal is to make his teammates better. However, Nash is an excellent shooter (Season: 53.9 FG%, 50 3P%, 98.2 FT%), so when he shoots, he scores. But Nash only shoots when he has to; when his teammates are not scoring. Nash takes the burden upon himself and attempts to will his team to victory. Unfortunately, dazzling the crowd with unbelievable shooting displays and impossible fades near the hoop rarely results in a Suns victory.
Another thing worth noting: the Suns have lost only once this season when scoring over 100 points. That occurred on November 26th, versus Golden State. Oh, and in case you’re wondering, Steve Nash was the Suns leading scorer with 23 points.

I love to see Steve score as much as the next fan, but it does not appear to be a recipe for Suns victories. What is the recipe for Suns victories? Scoring 100+ points; Suns win 92.3% of the time (12/13), and somebody other than Steve Nash leading the team in scoring; Suns win 90.9% of the time (10/11).

 

[BC867]

I don't want to simplify your excellent analysis, but . . .

To have a Point Guard who can score is great for a team.

To have a Point Guard who needs to score is not good, especially if you have any hopes of being a Championship contender.

Who remembers how predictable it was that Kevin Johnson would drive the lane with the game on the line . . . and get blocked, time and time again?

 

[dbUNIT16]

As I said, it seemed pretty obvious, I just was really surprised how correlated the two were:

somebody other than Steve Nash leading the team in scoring; Suns win 90.9% of the time (10/11)

That's pretty astounding. Even for Steve Nash and the Suns.

 

[jandaman]

so pretty much the obvious...


when no one else has their shot going or offense going, Nash carries the scoring or atleast is the only one hitting his shot... therefore Suns most likely lose.


And thats why Amare constantly need to be ON the court and drawing fouls when everyone is cold.... thing is he is too predictable of a defender to avoid foul trouble.

 

[dodie53]

Grant Hill should draw fouls too,
even Diaw, if he's aggressive enough

 

[cly2tw]

so pretty much the obvious...


when no one else has their shot going or offense going, Nash carries the scoring or atleast is the only one hitting his shot... therefore Suns most likely lose.


And thats why Amare constantly need to be ON the court and drawing fouls when everyone is cold.... thing is he is too predictable of a defender to avoid foul trouble.

The most obvious conclusion is that the Suns' offense is too much dependent on Nash picking the defense apart. If the defense is smart enough to counter that, like the Spurs did and the Warriors in their wins, the Suns don't have alternatives yet to win the game. Because they never practice viable alternatives, like some structured sets around Amare and Hill, often enough to make them reliable ones.

I believe the solution is to try to put Nash into the mode of Stockton in his last years who spent more than half his offensive court time setting picks, catch-and-shooting using screens, feeding Amare oops Malone in the post. This would make our team less predictable, as a byproduct, give Nash fresher legs for healthier post seasons and longer career.

 

[YouJustGotSUNSD]

Tonights game:

Steve Nash 9 pts, 15ast, suns win!

 

[F-Dog]

You're confusing cause and effect here.

Nash doesn't want to score; for him, taking a lot of shots is definitely plan B. So when does he go to plan B? When plan A isn't working...and when is it obvious plan A isn't working? When the Suns are losing, of course.

So, if the Suns are in trouble, Nash is likely to shoot more, not the other way around.







LMAO at a Suns fan implying that Nash doesn't know when to shoot and when to pass, though.

 

[Errntknght]

Although dbUNIT did sound at some points in his post as though he was confusing cause with correlation, he finally stated it very close to your plan A and plan B. He didn't mention explicitly that its when the Suns are losing that plan A wasn't working - but he did mention a worthwhile point: Nash is so effective in plan B because he's a very good shot.

 

[da_suns_fan]

I think there are more telling stats that this...

Nash plays great and the Suns win.

Nash plays great and the Suns lose.

We didn't lose the Miami and Atlanta games because Nash scored too much....we lost because we got destroyed on the boards.

We didn't lose to Lakers and Warriors because Nash scored too much...we lost because those two teams were on fire each respective night.

 

[cly2tw]

I think there are more telling stats that this...

Nash plays great and the Suns win.

Nash plays great and the Suns lose.

We didn't lose the Miami and Atlanta games because Nash scored too much....we lost because we got destroyed on the boards.

We didn't lose to Lakers and Warriors because Nash scored too much...we lost because those two teams were on fire each respective night.

We didn't lose to Miami, we lost to Houston. And we lost that because we were run out of the building in the GS game and were still feeling the effect. Nobody had any energy in the 6 quarters following the first half of the GS game! Without energy we were rotating fast enough or running well enough to run Yao out of the building, who dominated us to win a close game.

Hill's energy level has been back the last 2 games and he has been hitting his shots. Amare has been able to be focused on the actions. Bell is healthy. We won despite Nash's horrendous shooting games and Marion fumbling easy layups.

 

[nowagimp]

This is old news, but true. It was true for magic, for jordan, for Bird as well. When these playmakers have to score alot, their teams tend lose more often. For Jordan, the bulls fell way off when he scored more than 40 points. When magic had his highest ppg average in the playoffs, the lakers did not win. Its also true of Tim Duncan, another guy who creates shots for others. His highest series playoff average 32ppg against the mavs in '06, the spurs were defeated. Even the lakers do better when kobe shares the ball, as long as someone else can make a shot. The strategy against Nash has been to make him score. When the opposing defense does that, they are succeeding in limiting his effectiveness. Ironically, Nashs "hollinger PER rating" is higher when he scores more and the suns tend to lose. Thats why basketball stats sometimes dont mean a whole lot.

 

[Covert Rain]

I also correlate much of this to Steve knows when to score. I have seen him single handed stop scoring runs by hitting big shots. He doesn't need to be the high scoring guy on the team. He just needs people to respect his shot.

I remember when Jason Kidd was here people would dare him to shoot from the outside. When Jason didn't have his shot going he often would be trapped to prevent dribble penetration and then dishing.

With Steve we can score and still win because people have to respect both. If Steve is the high man in scoring then usually means nobody else is hitting their shots. That usually means as a team the Suns are not shooting well. I would say that most team in the NBA when not shooting well are going to lose.

 

[mashedpatatas]

i think this is common knowledge if you regularly watch the Suns play, but it's really good to see some hard numbers backing it up. Great job on the stats.

in games that i don't get to watch, i judge the Suns players (minus Nash) performance on how much Nash scored. if Nash scores above his average, it usually meant his teammates didn't get into rhythm. if Nash almost did not score but has a lot of assists, it usually meant the Suns winning.

this is why i consider Nash as the best point guard ever, because he rarely plays a bad game, and he's there to carry the team if it comes to that.