NBA Draft Lottery Preview

[Gee!]

NBA Draft Lottery Preview
Compiled by Darren Misener
Posted May 21 2007 4:51PM

With the 2007 NBA Draft Lottery coming up Tuesday at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, some participating teams have weighed in on three lottery-related questions about their respective squads. Check out what each team thinks about its needs, what would happen is it finished in the top three of the lottery and whether luck has been on its side before (we apologize to Celtics fans for rehashing 1997).

Full article here: http://www.nba.com/news/team_lottery_preview.html

 

[HooverDam]

I'm much more nervous about the lottery than I felt that day before playoff games, I suppose its because of the randomness, Steve Nash can't be dominant and force the Suns to have a great lottery. Lets hope Stern rigs this thing in the Suns favor to make up for the suspensions.

 

[mr_sunshine]

Fingers crossed. They just had to point out in the preview that a the team in the #4 slot going in has never received the #1 pick, and they're due for it. Sigh.

 

[mjb21aztd]

cant wait hope we have some luck on our side tommrow

 

[dodie53]

let us pray the suns get the atlanta pick..

 

[dreamcastrocks]

I told myself that I wouldn't watch anymore NBA, but I lied. I will be watching the lottery.

 

[Mulli]

let us pray the suns get the atlanta pick..

Amen.

 

[HooverDam]

let us pray the suns get the atlanta pick..

And that after that they "Just say no" to Yi and Noah.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

And that after that they "Just say no" to Yi and Noah.

I really don't care who we get at this point. Yi or Noah will help this team. I just want the pick. That's it.

 

[scoutmasterdave]

Obviously, the best outcome is for the Suns to get a pick in the 4-7 range.

However, coming in a close second is Atlanta getting the 2 pick, drafting Kevin Durant, and coming one step closer to having an entire roster filled with 6'7"-6'10" small forwards.

 

[phillycard]

Got my fingers crossed as well.

 

[sharkman]

I really don't care who we get at this point. Yi or Noah will help this team. I just want the pick. That's it.

Agreed...don't upset the basketball Gods by getting greedy...

 

[TucsonDevil]

People are going to hate me for saying this... but it might just happen. Anyone who believes the NBA is on the level, 100% - just tune this out. You are the same people that stare at the sun and deny that your eyes hurt.

I think that David Stern is just pissed about the way he was treated over the Phoenix fiasco. I also believe he is desperate to make the Eastern Conference more competitive, since the majority of the country live East of Texas. I can smell a fix coming... I don't feel confident about this pick at all. I don't believe we will get it.

As they go down the line opening envelopes and the a Hawk logo hasn't been revealed in picks, #7, #6. #5, I might just lay on the floor in the fetal position and cry. At that point, you know the #4 envelope is going to be a Grizzly or a Bucks logo...

Again, this league is fixed. It's biased towards larger markets (and don't try and tell me San Antonio is a small market - it is in TEXAS... tons of corporate dollars in Texas). The league can't control everything, but they can minipulate some things.





if you haven't caught on, this is a plea to the Basketball Gods to enact cosmic justice on the Suns and land the #4 pick in Phoenix

 

[ozzfloyd]

Fingers crossed. They just had to point out in the preview that a the team in the #4 slot going in has never received the #1 pick, and they're due for it. Sigh.

There is no such thing as being 'due for it' statistically. The odds are the odds regardless of past results.

 

[elindholm]

There is no such thing as being 'due for it' statistically. The odds are the odds regardless of past results.

Shhh, we're not into objective analytic thinking here.

 

[TucsonDevil]

There is no such thing as being 'due for it' statistically. The odds are the odds regardless of past results.

Actually, if you are setting odds for 'seperate random events' will turn out the same each and every time - the odds for that occurrance are low. Therefore, what they are saying is "after several seperate drafts, the #4 has never received the #1 pick, that trend is not statistically favored to continue."

 

[Dback Jon]

People are going to hate me for saying this... but it might just happen. Anyone who believes the NBA is on the level, 100% - just tune this out. You are the same people that stare at the sun and deny that your eyes hurt.

I think that David Stern is just pissed about the way he was treated over the Phoenix fiasco. I also believe he is desperate to make the Eastern Conference more competitive, since the majority of the country live East of Texas. I can smell a fix coming... I don't feel confident about this pick at all. I don't believe we will get it.

As they go down the line opening envelopes and the a Hawk logo hasn't been revealed in picks, #7, #6. #5, I might just lay on the floor in the fetal position and cry. At that point, you know the #4 envelope is going to be a Grizzly or a Bucks logo...

Again, this league is fixed. It's biased towards larger markets (and don't try and tell me San Antonio is a small market - it is in TEXAS... tons of corporate dollars in Texas). The league can't control everything, but they can minipulate some things.





if you haven't caught on, this is a plea to the Basketball Gods to enact cosmic justice on the Suns and land the #4 pick in Phoenix

I was struck by reading the article about how things seem to "work out" for the NBA in the lottery.

LeBron James - better in Cleveland (next to hometown), or Memphis. Bingo - Cleveland wins the lottery.

Patrick Ewing - Knicks need a savior. Bingo - Knicks win the lottery.

 

[elindholm]

As they go down the line opening envelopes and the a Hawk logo hasn't been revealed in picks, #7, #6. #5, I might just lay on the floor in the fetal position and cry.

If the Hawks haven't shown up before the final four, it's hopeless, unless no one else from #5 to #14 has moved up. If anyone moves up, that knocks Atlanta out of #4, period.

So watch from the beginning and count the number of teams that have moved up. If it's one, look for Atlanta at #5; if it's two, look for them at #6. If they don't show up in that spot, it's over.

If zero teams from #5 to #14 move up, then the top four teams kept the top four spots, in some order. Calculating the probability that Atlanta stayed at #4 in that scenario would be an easy task for someone who knows how to do it, and even I could probably work it out, but I'm sure there's a quicker way than the method I would use. Volunteers?

 

[Gaddabout]

You must be registered for see images

 

[The_Matrix]

When people accused Stern of rigging in 1985, the lottery process consisted of him grabbing a random envelope. Now, there's the ping-pong ball machine with representatives from all 30 teams observing. It would be much more difficult for it to be rigged now.

 

[TucsonDevil]

When people accused Stern of rigging in 1985, the lottery process consisted of him grabbing a random envelope. Now, there's the ping-pong ball machine with representatives from all 30 teams observing. It would be much more difficult for it to be rigged now.

Have you seen the ping pong balls pulled from the machine? Yeah, I didn't think so.

 

[hora]

Actually, if you are setting odds for 'seperate random events' will turn out the same each and every time - the odds for that occurrance are low. Therefore, what they are saying is "after several seperate drafts, the #4 has never received the #1 pick, that trend is not statistically favored to continue."

It depends on how and when you make that statement. If you ask the question "What are the odds that for the next 20 drafts, the #4-ranked lottery team never wins the #1 pick?", you would be correct in saying that the odds are quite low. If you ask the question "What are the odds that, given that the #4-ranked lottery team has never won the #1 pick in the last 20 drafts, the #4 team wins the next lottery?" the answer is that the odds are the same as they would be if the #4 team had won all 20 previous drafts, or any fraction thereof. To believe otherwise is an example of what is called the gambler's fallacy.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

When people accused Stern of rigging in 1985, the lottery process consisted of him grabbing a random envelope. Now, there's the ping-pong ball machine with representatives from all 30 teams observing. It would be much more difficult for it to be rigged now.

Haven't you seen the David Blaine commercials. Tiny, well placed magnets can do the trick.

 

[The_Matrix]

http://www.nba.com/features/inside_lottery_050524.html

It seems secure.

 

[TucsonDevil]

It depends on how and when you make that statement. If you ask the question "What are the odds that for the next 20 drafts, the #4-ranked lottery team never wins the #1 pick?", you would be correct in saying that the odds are quite low.

Exactly... That was the statement referred to when saying, the #4 team is due... But yes, each Draft respects no prior draft, statistically.


OF course, that is assuming you believe the NBA is on the level.