NBA Draft Lottery Preview

[The_Matrix]

Haven't you seen the David Blaine commercials. Tiny, well placed magnets can do the trick.

If Lebron, Yao and Gordon all lose it will be the David Blaine Commercial Curse.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

If Lebron, Yao and Gordon all lose it will be the David Blaine Commercial Curse.

Uh, Gordon and Yao are already out. So Lebron/Billups/Utah (the alleyoop commercial) are the only ones left.

There will really be a curse if the Spurs win it.

 

[TucsonDevil]

http://www.nba.com/features/inside_lottery_050524.html

It seems secure.

Question... after reading this article, the 'winning combinations'... who holds that list? Is it shared with the World? or at least the witnesses?

 

[The_Matrix]

I think the combo assignments are written out on a board for everyone to see.

On a lighter note, Bill Simmons' latest article is on the lottery and it's pretty darn funny http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/070522&sportCat=nba

best quote: Although it would also be fitting if they [the Hawks] landed No. 2 and picked Mike Conley Jr. over Durant by explaining, "Look, we really needed a point guard, you guys have been killing us for this for years!"

 

[hora]

If zero teams from #5 to #14 move up, then the top four teams kept the top four spots, in some order. Calculating the probability that Atlanta stayed at #4 in that scenario would be an easy task for someone who knows how to do it, and even I could probably work it out, but I'm sure there's a quicker way than the method I would use. Volunteers?

If 1-4 stay in the top 4 positions, my back-of-the-envelope calculations show:

Atlanta at #1 = 16.4%
Atlanta at #2 = 19.4%
Atlanta at #3 = 24.9%
Atlanta at #4 = 39.3%

 

[abomb]

If 1-4 stay in the top 4 positions, my back-of-the-envelope calculations show:

Atlanta at #1 = 16.4%
Atlanta at #2 = 19.4%
Atlanta at #3 = 24.9%
Atlanta at #4 = 39.3%

According to wikipedia it is;

Atlanta
1 .119
2 .126
3 .133
4 .099
5 .350
6 .161
7 .013

 

[hora]

According to wikipedia it is;

Atlanta
1 .119
2 .126
3 .133
4 .099
5 .350
6 .161
7 .013

Those are the overall odds. I was calculating the odds for the scenario where nobody from 5-13 moved up.

 

[elindholm]

According to wikipedia it is;

Atlanta
1 .119
2 .126
3 .133
4 .099
5 .350
6 .161
7 .013

No, the calculation I asked for is, what are the probabilities given that the top four teams wind up in the top four spots? I haven't checked hora's math but it looks like it's probably at least close.

 

[tobiazz]

If 1-4 stay in the top 4 positions, my back-of-the-envelope calculations show:

Atlanta at #1 = 16.4%
Atlanta at #2 = 19.4%
Atlanta at #3 = 24.9%
Atlanta at #4 = 39.3%

Thanks! This is interesting. As it stands, the Suns have a 60% chance of keeping the pick (I'm rounding here). If the lottery gets down to the last four teams and no team has moved up as of yet, then, at that point, Atlanta has a 60% chance of keeping the pick. We would basically be switching boats with them.

To "properly" root during the draft, it's best to hope that all of the teams behind Atlanta move up. I would rather be assured the 7th pick than get an unknown pick next year. The 7th pick this year could easily end up being better than the 3rd pick in next year's draft. The only names I have heard mentioned much for that draft are O.J. Mayo and same guy named Bayless.

Note: If exactly two teams behind ATL move up, we will have a very high percentage of keeping the pick (looking at a-bomb's chart) so that might be the best scenario to root for.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Thanks! This is interesting. As it stands, the Suns have a 60% chance of keeping the pick (I'm rounding here). If the lottery gets down to the last four teams and no team has moved up as of yet, then, at that point, Atlanta has a 60% chance of keeping the pick. We would basically be switching boats with them.

To "properly" root during the draft, it's best to hope that all of the teams behind Atlanta move up. I would rather be assured the 7th pick than get an unknown pick next year. The 7th pick this year could easily end up being better than the 3rd pick in next year's draft. The only names I have heard mentioned much for that draft are O.J. Mayo and same guy named Bayless.

Note: If exactly two teams behind ATL move up, we will have a very high percentage of keeping the pick (looking at a-bomb's chart) so that might be the best scenario to root for.

the top of next year's draft should be particularly strong as well. more point guard oriented as well.

mayo
rose
beasley
budinger
ty lawson
donte green
dominic james
collison
steele
augustin
arthur
thabeet
lopez
mbah a moute

that said, if the hawks get one of the top three selections eventually they'll be good and our pick will drop precipitiously.

 

[Michael]

I think I'm even going to risk seeing some seconds of ugly ball in order not to miss the lottery.

The Suns team is build of low lottery picks (Amare 9th, Shawn 9th, Steve 13th, Leandro 27th?..).
Getting the 5th or even 4th pick would be awesome.

I have a qustion though some might be able to answer without looking it up.
Why didn't the Suns keep Luol Deng with their 7th pick a couple of years ago.
Seeing him a lot this year made me believe, he'd have had a huge impact on the Suns.

 

[Steel Sun]

I think I'm even going to risk seeing some seconds of ugly ball in order not to miss the lottery.

The Suns team is build of low lottery picks (Amare 9th, Shawn 9th, Steve 13th, Leandro 27th?..).
Getting the 5th or even 4th pick would be awesome.

I have a qustion though some might be able to answer without looking it up.
Why didn't the Suns keep Luol Deng with their 7th pick a couple of years ago.
Seeing him a lot this year made me believe, he'd have had a huge impact on the Suns.

I believe they agreed with Chicago before the draft to pick and trade him to them.The suns wanted Andre Igudola and didn't think he would be avail when they picked(one of BC's low points as GM)

 

[JS22]

People are going to hate me for saying this... but it might just happen. Anyone who believes the NBA is on the level, 100% - just tune this out. You are the same people that stare at the sun and deny that your eyes hurt.

I think that David Stern is just pissed about the way he was treated over the Phoenix fiasco. I also believe he is desperate to make the Eastern Conference more competitive, since the majority of the country live East of Texas. I can smell a fix coming... I don't feel confident about this pick at all. I don't believe we will get it.

As they go down the line opening envelopes and the a Hawk logo hasn't been revealed in picks, #7, #6. #5, I might just lay on the floor in the fetal position and cry. At that point, you know the #4 envelope is going to be a Grizzly or a Bucks logo...

Shut up...shut up....shut up!!!!!

 

[JS22]

I believe they agreed with Chicago before the draft to pick and trade him to them.The suns wanted Andre Igudola and didn't think he would be avail when they picked(one of BC's low points as GM)

That worked out well!

 

[tobiazz]

the top of next year's draft should be particularly strong as well. more point guard oriented as well.

mayo
rose
beasley
budinger
ty lawson
donte green
dominic james
collison
steele
augustin
arthur
thabeet
lopez
mbah a moute

that said, if the hawks get one of the top three selections eventually they'll be good and our pick will drop precipitiously.

Hmmm, Beasley must be the guy I was thinking of instead of Bayless. From my limited NCAA viewing, I would say a top-8 pick next year would be decent and anything lower would be pretty disappointing. Augustin, Thabeet, and Mbah a Moute on your list are nothing to get excited about. Rose, Beasley, Batum, Budinger, and Lawson all sound like guys that could fit well with the Suns.

That said, I certainly don't want to rely on the Hawks sucking again. I suppose I would take the guaranteed top three pick (if that were possible) in next years draft over the 7th pick in this draft. This draft should be deep through 15 or so. I wish we could trade our 3 picks to get two picks around 10, but no other team has two picks in that vicinity. Adding Conley + Noah/Green/Thornton/etc would be great.

 

[tobiazz]

Oh yeah, I wanted to mention that it would be awesome if the Pacers won a lottery spot because it increases our chance of keeping the pick and it keeps ATL from getting the ~#11 pick. If ATL wins Oden and Conley slipped to 11, that team would have a great chance of giving us a crappy pick next year.