Again, the high chance for a championship dwarfs the rest of that.
I'm tired of being a 50 win team without a ring. Aren't you??
Of course I'm tired of it, but I still believe in responsible risk/reward analysis.
What does your high chance for a championship mean? How high of a chance? Speaking pragmatically, there is a higher chance that this trade fails for us than delivers a championship.
Again, it is important to note that KD was not good in this year's post season. It doesn't necessarily mean he's in decline, but it increases the probability that he is. That needs to be factored.
CP hit an alarming wall this post season. It doesn't necessarily mean he's toast, but it increases the probability that he is. That needs to be factored.
In this trade scenario, we're giving up a max asset trade package. The kind that it would take to land a young, mvp caliber player in their prime. But we're not landing a young mvp caliber player here. We're landing an old mvp caliber player here in the age range that significant decline is expected. This is not good value for us.
Historically, these trades do not work out for the team acquiring the aging player. The Chris Paul trade is an outlier, and we gave up minimal assets. If we're projecting based on history, this trade fails for us, and we have locked ourselves into irrelevance for the next decade.
I'm in favor of trading for KD, but we really need to adjust the trade compensation to account for the disconnect in value of trading for a young vs old player. At the bare minimum, we need to trim one first rounder and pick swap off of the proposal.