New front page story: "The Graves Plan"

[ajcardfan]

Originally posted by Stout

And Russ, I disagree on Colvin. If we threw a ton of loot at him, I'm pretty sure he would have come here. We might have offered slightly more, but if we would have been willing to pony up the money to overpay enough, we would have gotten him. AND IT WOULDN'T HAVE BROKEN THE BANK. I guess the organization just hasn't learned that yet.

That's what I thought too, Stout. That's why I was stunned to hear that he signed with NE for a 7mil bonus and turned down our 10.5mil bonus. That's serious loot to walk away from.

Also, our original offer to Holliday was 6yrs, 33mil with a six mil bonus. That really blows away the offer he did sign with KC.


Graves main problem isn't an owner that won't spend (not anymore). But the overall perception is that Bidwill really doesn't care about winning. That stigma was what held us back this offseason. It'll take a long time to change that perception.

 

[Russ Smith]

Originally posted by conraddobler

The Ducks spent roughly half of what the Redwings did in hockey and who is watching now? This happens all the time in all sports especially those without caps. In the NFL see the Redskins for proof that money isn't the sole answer. It's team building first.

They tried to get people they wanted and passed on the rest thats how you build a team. Restructuring deals is a really big step up from the past so it looks like things have turned.

as a Bay area longtime A's fan who only passively follows baseball anymore. THe A's are a perfect example of what can be done with a small payroll IF you make no mistakes. But the A's lost Giambi, will lose Tejada, and if any of their big 3 pitchers were to get injured the A's would be in big trouble(they have a kid in AAA who is their next great pitching prospect but he's not quite ready kid is named Harden and they say he throws 96-98).

So yeah it can be done to BUILD a team but it's very hard to maintain if you can't pay enough. It's not a coincidence Giambi is a Yankee he took the money. Beane has done a marvelous job of figuring out whe HE wasn't a very good player despite having the tools to be #1 overall in the draft, he basically adopted Bill James philosophy of building an offense around guys who walk a lot and have power, that's why he openly criticized Tejada in his book, Tejada never walks.

It's a lot easier to sustain if you spend the money but you do have to spend it wisely.

 

[SECTION 11]

Originally posted by Russ Smith
THe A's are a perfect example of what can be done with a small payroll IF you make no mistakes.

Yesterday NPR had a story on Beane and the A's. It was definately interesting.

It made me think of Boston. We don't need to replace Boston, we need to meet or exceed his stats on the field with someone else. If that can't be done, then another area of the team must get stronger to compensate. Given Boston's averages over his entire career in AZ, I'm pretty confident that we won't miss him as much as people think as long as Johnson and Boldin catch what's thrown to them. They aren't going to forget how to catch simply because they're playing on Sunday instead of Saturday.
End Tangent. Thank you.

 

[Lex]

Two things double1-

1) That was a weak tangent.

2) You listen to NPR???

 

[PortlandCardFan]

Originally posted by SECTION 11
Yesterday NPR had a story on Beane and the A's. It was definately interesting.

It made me think of Boston. We don't need to replace Boston, we need to meet or exceed his stats on the field with someone else. If that can't be done, then another area of the team must get stronger to compensate. Given Boston's averages over his entire career in AZ, I'm pretty confident that we won't miss him as much as people think as long as Johnson and Boldin catch what's thrown to them. They aren't going to forget how to catch simply because they're playing on Sunday instead of Saturday.
End Tangent. Thank you.

I agree.... Catchin a football doesn't change much if any. What they are goin to have to get use to is the speed and the hits they will take.

 

[kerouac9]

Originally posted by Lex
2) You listen to NPR???

Don't hate. NPR is the bomb!

 

[SECTION 11]

Originally posted by Lex
Two things double1-

1) That was a weak tangent.

2) You listen to NPR???

It was. But I still thought of it at the time so I thought I'd share with the group.
That Nurse Ratchet is a battle axe, I tell ya.

 

[Russ Smith]

Originally posted by SECTION 11
Yesterday NPR had a story on Beane and the A's. It was definately interesting.

It made me think of Boston. We don't need to replace Boston, we need to meet or exceed his stats on the field with someone else. If that can't be done, then another area of the team must get stronger to compensate. Given Boston's averages over his entire career in AZ, I'm pretty confident that we won't miss him as much as people think as long as Johnson and Boldin catch what's thrown to them. They aren't going to forget how to catch simply because they're playing on Sunday instead of Saturday.
End Tangent. Thank you.

I am going to read his new book but from what i have read over the years Beane became a GM and started with the question, why was I the #1 pick in the draft, a failure as a player? Injuries maybe but basically he decided that while he could run, hit for power and throw, he had no plate discipline(swung at anything) and as a result he got himself out too often.

If you look at the A's with Beane there they are among the league leaders in walks every year. That's what he likes about Durazo, walks alot, has power, that's the two things he looks for walks and power. his belief is a 300 hitter who doesn't walk is just not worth all that much, but a 250 guy who walks and has more power is a MUCH better player.

The A's were literally taking stats like OBP and Slugging % and working deals by adding them together in a formula(like draft value) and trading off those numbers. THe other half of the equation is he decided the no brainer, pitching is harder to find, so he locked up his pitchers and keeps replacing the hitters who get too expensive.

Supposedly from the book he comes off VERY cocky, should be a good read if I can find the time.

 

[Metal Militia]

Originally posted by Lex
We signed a quarterback for 20% of what our veteran QB would have made, which could be a good move financially, but in no way did we upgrade that position.

Lex, what did you drink before you posted this?

 

[Krangodnzr]

Originally posted by Metal Militia
Lex, what did you drink before you posted this?

That's a typical Lex post....he still fantasizes about Plummer, err wait that's Tango.

 

[kerouac9]

Originally posted by Krangthebrain
That's a typical Lex post....he still fantasizes about Plummer, err wait that's Tango.

Hey, I never saw that Plummer "fan fiction" post. Do you remember where it was? I'd love to read it.

 

[SECTION 11]

Originally posted by kerouac9
Hey, I never saw that Plummer "fan fiction" post. Do you remember where it was? I'd love to read it.

http://140.99.36.102/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=6362

 

[Krangodnzr]

Originally posted by SECTION 11
http://140.99.36.102/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=6362

Funniest thread ever!

Tango needs to start writing a series of erotic books with Jake as the star, and Tango as the heroine. To quote RoboCop, " I'd buy that for a dollar!"

 

[Ed B]

No, make Calvin Pace the heroine.

 

[Pariah]

I enjoyed the article (took it into my "office" at work tucked into the WSJ). But, I think some of it is a little bit of revisionist history.

It wasn't in Graves plan to get Blake. We made an offer to Stewart first. And, as others have stated, it wasn't in his plan to lose both Colvin and Holliday to other teams.

That said, I think Graves has done an alright job of recovering from such let-downs and going to "plan-B"-- The Draft. If Pace turns out to be a producer, then it will be a successfull draft, because you've got to think that either Johnson or Bolin (maybe both?) will work out as well (maybe not this year, though. WRs usually take a couple of years).

I think your percentages are pretty close to what I might think they are (although, they are percentages and not "odds." While I'm at it, you should remove the bullets from the section headings in the position breakdown

 

[Goldfield]

Originally posted by Russ Smith
I actually completely agree it was pretty clear in '98 that the Cards decided they were ok on defense and were going to start building around Jake. The high picks, the FA's were all offensive.

The problem was, when Swann's knee, Andre's knee, Smith's knee etc started to add up, Fergie never ADAPTED. He just kept building the offense and ignoring his defense and suddenly one day he woke up with the worst defense in the NFL. THat's when it became so obvious that we'd made a mistake on Jake because with all that money we still didn't have a good offense and had spent all that money assuming the key was Jake.

Fergie had a plan but he had no plan B.

I really like reading your posts Russ.

The signature is great aswell!

 

[Goldfield]

Originally posted by kerouac9
Hey, I never saw that Plummer "fan fiction" post. Do you remember where it was? I'd love to read it.

NOOOOOOOOOO, Dooo not bump that post up PLZ!!!


You dont wanna read it trust me... Omg I am gunna puke!

 

[RedStorm]

Originally posted by Ed B
Ferguson's plans were always 4-year rebuilding projects.

You mean to tell me that anyone in the history of this organization has come in and revamped the roster as quickly as Graves has? He's only been the GM for 5 months! And this is almost a completely different team!

A completely different team???

JMO...Let's compare last year with this year (granted not a snap has been taken so this is all subjective)

QB - Upgrade
RB - Upgrade (although, was not a priority this year) - a solid strength with shipp and smith
OL - Even (Lose Grutts and signed some BUs. this is our strength)
WR - Down (losing DB, FS, MJ hurts. Especially DB. A pro bowler out the door. What he does in SD will either define Graves as being a genius or an idiot). Bryant/Boldin. Good picks but rookies seldom make an impact the first year. Blake may make a difference for us this year though.
DL - Down - This was our greatest weakness and has been addressed by drafting a 2nd rounder (at best) in the first. We tried in FA but obviously players do look at other things than pure money when deciding whom to play for.
LB - even - Unless anyone thinks Darling will be the next LT.
DB - even - Get Jackson lose Kwamie. Let's hope Jackson is not just cashing in on a big performance in the SB.
ST - Upgrade - Besides QB this is probably were we upgraded the most.

So, we have upgraded our O (IMO) but we did not address our greatest weakness, DL and pass rush. We will not be able to utilize our greatest strength (OL) and running game when we are behind because we can not stop anyone by penetrating into the backfield or getting pressure on the QB.

Our WR are suspect. No where near a strength so Blakes arm and accuracy may not be as great a factor as we all hope. Although I think we may see more Blake to FJones.

Graves did get some things accomplished but was not able to get the big deal done. He has not been able to address our greatest need. He has not in FA. He only had money to offer but could not convince Colvin, Holiday that things have changed enough to be competative (sp). He recognizes our weakness. But could do nothing about it.

Graves plan included a draft day trade that, IMO, was bone head. Enough said...

So, at best, Graves gets a C grade for what he has done. Everyone loves a winner. Graves is getting paid to put a winner on the field. If the Cards do not win he will go down like the rest and he should. If he wins then he deserves all the good that comes his way.....

 

[Renz]

Originally posted by RedStorm
A completely different team???

JMO...Let's compare last year with this year (granted not a snap has been taken so this is all subjective)

QB - Upgrade
RB - Upgrade (although, was not a priority this year) - a solid strength with shipp and smith
OL - Even (Lose Grutts and signed some BUs. this is our strength)
WR - Down (losing DB, FS, MJ hurts. Especially DB. A pro bowler out the door. What he does in SD will either define Graves as being a genius or an idiot). Bryant/Boldin. Good picks but rookies seldom make an impact the first year. Blake may make a difference for us this year though.
DL - Down - This was our greatest weakness and has been addressed by drafting a 2nd rounder (at best) in the first. We tried in FA but obviously players do look at other things than pure money when deciding whom to play for.
LB - even - Unless anyone thinks Darling will be the next LT.
DB - even - Get Jackson lose Kwamie. Let's hope Jackson is not just cashing in on a big performance in the SB.
ST - Upgrade - Besides QB this is probably were we upgraded the most.

So, we have upgraded our O (IMO) but we did not address our greatest weakness, DL and pass rush. We will not be able to utilize our greatest strength (OL) and running game when we are behind because we can not stop anyone by penetrating into the backfield or getting pressure on the QB.

Our WR are suspect. No where near a strength so Blakes arm and accuracy may not be as great a factor as we all hope. Although I think we may see more Blake to FJones.

Graves did get some things accomplished but was not able to get the big deal done. He has not been able to address our greatest need. He has not in FA. He only had money to offer but could not convince Colvin, Holiday that things have changed enough to be competative (sp). He recognizes our weakness. But could do nothing about it.

Graves plan included a draft day trade that, IMO, was bone head. Enough said...

So, at best, Graves gets a C grade for what he has done. Everyone loves a winner. Graves is getting paid to put a winner on the field. If the Cards do not win he will go down like the rest and he should. If he wins then he deserves all the good that comes his way.....

No way is the DL a downgrade over last year. When you are at rock bottom there is nowhere to go but up.

Does anyone really think the Cards will miss Sanders? When was the last time he made a big play?

 

[JeffGollin]

Let's compare last year with this year
With a young team, you have to factor in the projected rate of improvement for each player.

 

[stlouiecard]

Very nice Ed

Good,well-written article with what I would consider an unpopular perspective. It's always nice to see fans standing up for our team, simply because no one else will. However, Rod I do not believe, had planned on many of the items that you had wrote about. I do think he planned on running DBoston out of town and he and this team will suffer severly for this. Therefore, I agree with your 30% chance of success for the passing game, but with Blake in there I think the Cards have a shot.

I haven't posted on this board since draft day simply because I am still peeved over this fumbling display that Graves and Co. put on. Calvin Pace was not suppose to be the pick and the Trade still has not made sense. We will see if Bryant Johnson pans out but there will be unfair and undue pressure on Pace to produce. I am not confident he will, I hope he does, but it's unlikely. I can't agree with 50-50 here simply because KVB is overrated by the fans in the desert, Dennnis Johnson is an enigma and Wendell Bryant only proved one thing last year- that he was about himself and himself only. Sorry, this team will again struggle to go 6-10 simply because the defense is no better.

I like the secondary, though, Adrian Wilson is a stud and will prove it this year, but the rest of the unit will have a tall mountain to climb because the DL is weak and our LB core is not even AVG. Mckinnon can't stop the quick pass-receiving backs in this league and again Fisher is an enigma.

The OL will again be stellar and Emmitt and Tug Boat will be a superior upgrade over last year, but it will be tough to muster a consistent groung game while facing 8 in the box and the fact that the defense will be on the field more than the offense simply every game.

Sorry to sound pessimistic, but Graves really had no play. If anything he has started the re-building process over again and it will be years before this team contends if at all. Hopefully, the new stadium will bring in higher- quality players and a proven coach. Sorry Mac, you are excellent but you have no chance with the lot that you have been given.

 

[Skkorpion]

Clearly, Rod Graves had a plan. Part of it failed when he couldn't reel in Colvin and Holliday. At least Graves had an ambitious plan and went after it.

In past years we've settled for the Tony McCoys and Gruttadorias and most of you complained then that we weren't real players in free agency.

So this year we became THE player but had only partial success. Frankly, I'm not surprised. Graves is fighting an uphill battle against years of negative perception.

To interpret the partial failure of the plan as not having a plan is just wrong and unfair to Rod Graves. We just had the most successful free agent signing period in Az Cardinal history, signing a starting QB, FB, RB, S and building much needed depth at C, *, and LB.

Was it perfect plan execution? No. Colvin and Holliday got away.

Choose to not forgive Graves for letting Boston go untagged if you wish. But if you look at the history of how this organization deals with druggies, it stayed consistent by forcing Boston to leave. This team ALWAYS dumps their druggies for no compensation.

Get over it.

Isn't there supposed to be a honeymoon period for new managers to prove their worth? How many games have we given Graves before ripping him?

 

[Krangodnzr]

Originally posted by Skkorpion
Clearly, Rod Graves had a plan. Part of it failed when he couldn't reel in Colvin and Holliday. At least Graves had an ambitious plan and went after it.

In past years we've settled for the Tony McCoys and Gruttadorias and most of you complained then that we weren't real players in free agency.

So this year we became THE player but had only partial success. Frankly, I'm not surprised. Graves is fighting an uphill battle against years of negative perception.

To interpret the partial failure of the plan as not having a plan is just wrong and unfair to Rod Graves. We just had the most successful free agent signing period in Az Cardinal history, signing a starting QB, FB, RB, S and building much needed depth at C, *, and LB.

Was it perfect plan execution? No. Colvin and Holliday got away.

Choose to not forgive Graves for letting Boston go untagged if you wish. But if you look at the history of how this organization deals with druggies, it stayed consistent by forcing Boston to leave. This team ALWAYS dumps their druggies for no compensation.

Get over it.

Isn't there supposed to be a honeymoon period for new managers to prove their worth? How many games have we given Graves before ripping him?

Great perspective and I agree wholeheartedly.

I will give him at least two offseasons to judge him. He has been given the opportunity to make this his team, and he clearly has tried to do that.

 

[stlouiecard]

Skorp

Originally posted by Skkorpion
Clearly, Rod Graves had a plan. Part of it failed when he couldn't reel in Colvin and Holliday. At least Graves had an ambitious plan and went after it.

In past years we've settled for the Tony McCoys and Gruttadorias and most of you complained then that we weren't real players in free agency.

So this year we became THE player but had only partial success. Frankly, I'm not surprised. Graves is fighting an uphill battle against years of negative perception.

To interpret the partial failure of the plan as not having a plan is just wrong and unfair to Rod Graves. We just had the most successful free agent signing period in Az Cardinal history, signing a starting QB, FB, RB, S and building much needed depth at C, *, and LB.

Was it perfect plan execution? No. Colvin and Holliday got away.

Choose to not forgive Graves for letting Boston go untagged if you wish. But if you look at the history of how this organization deals with druggies, it stayed consistent by forcing Boston to leave. This team ALWAYS dumps their druggies for no compensation.

Get over it.

Isn't there supposed to be a honeymoon period for new managers to prove their worth? How many games have we given Graves before ripping him?

There is nothing to get over - and Graves, the last time I checked, was not a player or a coach therefore he is not on the field and his game has already started. Graves deserves to be ripped for letting Boston walk without compensation. If he felt Boston would not fit into the teams plans then fine but at least get compensation for a past first round pick that actually had panned out. This team can never rebuild into contention when we consistently let guys go without comp. Graves dropped the ball again on draft day and he deserves to get ripped for that. You just don't skip quality players like Terrell Suggs when you are trying to build from the ground up.

I agree with you about the negative comments. Rod has a tough job convincing other players to come here and I am sure that is the sole reason that Colvin was not signed. But do it by having solid drafts and being aggressive in the front office. Is LJ Shelton signed yet long term? No. We will go thru this BS again next year simply because this front office is slow!!! Is any of our draft picks signed yet???? No, he is waiting for the market to be set. Well dang it start setting the market and get these players into camp on time this year- then I will start giving Graves some credit. Until then, he is a second string personnel employee who has been chosen to do the dirty work and if he is the one to be ripped then he will be.

Maybe if the true fans out in AZ started holding this organization accountable instead of drinking kool-aid all the time maybe this team would want to start turning things around. I drank kool-aid for years in STL. and I am done with it.

 

[Sandan]

According to the AZ Republic RG has stated talking KVB and Shelton's agents about extensions